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Peter Sagan discussion thread.

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Re:

03 Jan 2018 20:57

portugal11 wrote:now he has the team to do even more damage in milan san remo and flanders. now he has the r
team to win roubaix. last year he was robbered in roubaix, he just need to avoid punctures and crashes

By which you mean now he has Daniel Oss.

He wasn’t robbed in Roubaix. There are punctures and crashes every year there, you just have to hope the other guy gets them worse than you.
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03 Jan 2018 21:01

It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.
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Re:

03 Jan 2018 21:03

Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)
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Re: Re:

03 Jan 2018 21:15

portugal11 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)

Is the finish still in Ans this year, or is it moving back to Liege?

I’d love to see Sagan contend in the Ardennes, but I think he seems to be focused on winning Roubaix and/or MSR first in his career, and he doesn’t think he can carry that form all the way through. Ultimately there’s nothing in the UCI calendar he can’t win, but he would need to be a bit lighter for the more mountainous events.
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03 Jan 2018 21:19

No, Sagan can't win Liege, even when raced conservatively. Too much elevation gain and too late in the spring for him, Amstel is much, much more suitable for him. Peak Valverde and Alaphilippe will smash him in Ans (if he gets that far). I think Ans has 1 year left (2018) and thats it, it will be good for the race with a new finish.
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Re: Peter Sagan discussion thread.

03 Jan 2018 21:57

I don't think Sagan will ride Omloop and Kuurne this year.
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03 Jan 2018 22:31

2017 Sagan can’t win Liege. But 2012 Sagan won Brabantse Pijl and came 2nd in Amstel, and at various times in his career he has shown that when the mood takes him he can get over some very tough climbs with or near the best climbers; I think if he just adapted his training and lost a couple kgs he’d be well up there close to the finish.

And also, Simon Gerrans won in Ans in 2014; I cant believe that there’s a race that Gerrans can win that Sagan can’t.
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Re:

03 Jan 2018 22:42

Leinster wrote:2017 Sagan can’t win Liege. But 2012 Sagan won Brabantse Pijl and came 2nd in Amstel, and at various times in his career he has shown that when the mood takes him he can get over some very tough climbs with or near the best climbers; I think if he just adapted his training and lost a couple kgs he’d be well up there close to the finish.

And also, Simon Gerrans won in Ans in 2014; I cant believe that there’s a race that Gerrans can win that Sagan can’t.

Much of the reason why Sagan can't win Liege is due to the placement of the race, at the end of a huge and probably Sagan's most important block of racing. Riders are bound to fade under those circumstances, just look at GVA last year in a very conservative edition. No chance.

All he had to do was to shred a couple of kgs and focus on the Ardennes, then he would obviously be up there, but its easier said than done to win against Valverde when he is in this kind of mood:
2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOQfbtV58go Relatively hard edition, his finish after spending all that energy on the front catching Moreno is incredible.
2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03qO-fOMFuM Easy as it gets to look in a monument finishing a race.
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Re: Peter Sagan discussion thread.

04 Jan 2018 03:35

Sagan can win anything. He's that good.
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Re: Peter Sagan discussion thread.

04 Jan 2018 04:08

Tonton wrote:Sagan can win anything. He's that good.


Amen!
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04 Jan 2018 13:34

I still think that he has more chance in Liege than in Roubaix even with the extra kilos he put on in the last two years, he always seems to suffer the flat cobbles and fade in the finale whereas last year won the murito stage of Tirreno in an impressive way (Majka made the race hard in the finale for him) against the climbers and Liege is usually raced in a more soft way nowadays.

Anyway in the interview pubblished by Gazzetta some days ago the interviewer hinted that the team want him to ride at least Amstel.
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04 Jan 2018 13:40

I think Roubaix is more tactically than physically difficult for Sagan. If it was ridden like Liège, I think he'd be the favourite for Roubaix (thankfully it is not). The opposite is the case for Liège, and even if he was fresh at the start of the race (which he'll never be being in peak condition from MSR), I think RaF and SN take too much out of him before Ans.

If he was patient enough like Greg and didn't feel responsible to make the selection earlier in the race, I think he'd have enough gas left at the end of the race.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 14:06

portugal11 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)


With his current physique and race program he can't.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 14:33

Blanco wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)


With his current physique and race program he can't.

I think the race program is the bigger issue than the weight. If an injury forced him off the bike for the end of March/early April and he needed a classic win to rescue his spring, I’d say he could win Liege as easily as any other.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 14:47

Blanco wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)


With his current physique and race program he can't.


Yes exactly. Does he have the capacity to win Liege if he targets it and drops quite a few kgs of muscle mass? Yes, very likely he would be a strong contender. Can he do so while peaking for other classics and while carrying around 12+ kg extra over anyone competitive in LBL? Almost certainly not.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 14:54

Leinster wrote:
Blanco wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:It will be exactly the same schedule as in 2017 which honestly also is a very good one apart from no Amstel which he can win. I hope he finally participates.

he can win liege too (the current liege bastogne liege...)


With his current physique and race program he can't.

I think the race program is the bigger issue than the weight. If an injury forced him off the bike for the end of March/early April and he needed a classic win to rescue his spring, I’d say he could win Liege as easily as any other.


Nobody close to his weight has been close to winning LBL in a long time. Matthews, who is noticeably lighter than the current version of Sagan, is the nearest and even he was not in contention for the win. Before that we are talking about a younger and again considerably lighter version of GVA placing well but again not being near the win. LBL has been about the flyweights for a long time and until some big lump learns to punch with Valverde and Martin after a long day climbing it will continue to be.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 15:11

Leinster wrote:
portugal11 wrote:now he has the team to do even more damage in milan san remo and flanders. now he has the r
team to win roubaix. last year he was robbered in roubaix, he just need to avoid punctures and crashes

By which you mean now he has Daniel Oss.

He wasn’t robbed in Roubaix. There are punctures and crashes every year there, you just have to hope the other guy gets them worse than you.


Sagan´s main problem in spring classics is that he is so marked that other teams will always use any of his mistakes, temporary problems and especially punctures. PR 2016, 2017 were the best example.

If peloton had reacted on GVA´s problems the same way as it reacts when Sagan has one, GVA would have been gone before Arenberg. Even in RVV he could be gone a long time before the Sagan´s crash.

If there are any unwritten rules regarding waiting for the Froome if he has a problem there must be the same unwritten rule in the peloton to ride as hard as possible if Sagan has one. :D .

I wonder if the byke of Daniel Oss (190 CM) can be good enough for Sagan (184) to win the race in case of the puncture in last cobble sectors
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 15:34

SKSemtex wrote:
Leinster wrote:
portugal11 wrote:now he has the team to do even more damage in milan san remo and flanders. now he has the r
team to win roubaix. last year he was robbered in roubaix, he just need to avoid punctures and crashes

By which you mean now he has Daniel Oss.

He wasn’t robbed in Roubaix. There are punctures and crashes every year there, you just have to hope the other guy gets them worse than you.


Sagan´s main problem in spring classics is that he is so marked that other teams will always use any of his mistakes, temporary problems and especially punctures. PR 2016, 2017 were the best example.

If peloton had reacted on GVA´s problems the same way as it reacts when Sagan has one, GVA would have been gone before Arenberg. Even in RVV he could be gone a long time before the Sagan´s crash.

If there are any unwritten rules regarding waiting for the Froome if he has a problem there must be the same unwritten rule in the peloton to ride as hard as possible if Sagan has one. :D .

I wonder if the byke of Daniel Oss (190 CM) can be good enough for Sagan (184) to win the race in case of the puncture in last cobble sectors


GVA will be just as marked this year. He’s proven to be a classics sprinter, soloist, etc. He’s no longer the nearly man. This is good for Sagan.
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04 Jan 2018 15:37

No he won't. Marked, yes; not as marked as Sagan though.
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Re:

04 Jan 2018 15:47

Netserk wrote:No he won't. Marked, yes; not as marked as Sagan though.


Riders would be idiots not to mark him just as much. He’s proven himself to be just as strong and smarter (imo). I don’t see him getting any sort of leeway that isn’t also afforded to Sagan.
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