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Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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Re:

18 May 2017 12:03

Rollthedice wrote:Just take a look at the profiles for stages starting Tuesday. If Movistar, Bahrain, FdJ ride those stages hard from far out on multiple mountains, isolate him soon and the likes of Nibs, Nairo and Pinot attack him there is no way he can cover all. He can loose minutes between the climbs. Does anybody know how Dumoulin climbs at over 2000m?

Tom will definitely put up a fight, but on balance I find this the most likely outcome. Hope it will a convoluted and entertaining one at that.

One counter argument to this, at this stage speculative of course, might be that if Quintana or Nibali attacks from far out, other GC boys will work with Dumoulin to protect their own interest rather than making him do all chasing. This then might diminish the impact of such moves. Dekker-Tifosi also proposed a Dutch alliance scenario.

These are plausible scenarios, as far as it goes. However, there is also the quite realistic possibility that if Quintana or Nibali goes long on some stages, some GC boys can follow and others can't. This obviously splits the contributions they might make into breaking away / chasing. The question then is which group Dumoulin belongs to.
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Re: Nairo Quintana discussion thread

18 May 2017 12:26

I think TD knows he's gonna lose time in the high mountains, he just needs to not panic and crack big style as he can regain his lead on the final stage. Its up to NQ and friends (rivals) to make up a big enough margin that put TD out of range in Milan.
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18 May 2017 12:32

The problem isn't the alttitude at all. The problem is his team!!! Even froome would struggle to beat quintana, nibali, pinot, etc without a team. I'm pretty sure dumoulin will follow pinot or nibali and limit losses to quintana quite easily. But without a team, he has to respond to everybody and he will crack somewhere.
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Re:

18 May 2017 12:52

portugal11 wrote:The problem isn't the alttitude at all. The problem is his team!!! Even froome would struggle to beat quintana, nibali, pinot, etc without a team. I'm pretty sure dumoulin will follow pinot or nibali and limit losses to quintana quite easily. But without a team, he has to respond to everybody and he will crack somewhere.


No, they would want him to respond to everybody, but he just has to stay calm. I highly doubt the others would stay calm too when one of them attacks and Tom does nothing but keeping his cool. Nairo I guess would only get more nervous in case of a Nibali attack.

But the best part is: Tom knows this and Sunweb as well. If they lose, so be it. But that would be in a very different scenario than the simply cracking on the very first occasion because of getting trapped by the others.
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18 May 2017 13:35

It looks like Nibali will wait for Quintana's attack this time more than the other way around. He sounds like he wants to capitalize on Quintana's attack. Pinot might do the same.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 13:47

Volderke wrote:
Fernandez wrote:Easy my friends. Quintana needs to put 5 minutes on Dumoulin and the rest of the guys from now to the last stage, so we´ll have plenty of hard racing by him and Movistar.

I can' see NQ 'take' 5 minutes. Dumoulin has to 'give' him 5 minutes by cracking severely. That's NQ's only possibility of winning this (Dumoulin cracking).

I wouldn't call 5 minutes cracking. I thought he needs close to the 4 minutes neighborhood. But well, let's hope for a great fight.
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18 May 2017 20:19

Nario is still in great shape to take out this Giro. Only 2 and a half minutes of Dumoulin - and we all know we wont start seeing the best of Nario until stage 16. I'm pretty confident at some point after stage 16 Dumoulin will be isolated and crack - its really not a matter of if but when. He doesnt have the team to stop this from happening, and I can see Nario walting into the final TT day with a 4 - 5+ minute unassailable lead.
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Re: Re:

19 May 2017 04:07

meat puppet wrote:
Rollthedice wrote:Just take a look at the profiles for stages starting Tuesday. If Movistar, Bahrain, FdJ ride those stages hard from far out on multiple mountains, isolate him soon and the likes of Nibs, Nairo and Pinot attack him there is no way he can cover all. He can loose minutes between the climbs. Does anybody know how Dumoulin climbs at over 2000m?

Tom will definitely put up a fight, but on balance I find this the most likely outcome. Hope it will a convoluted and entertaining one at that.

One counter argument to this, at this stage speculative of course, might be that if Quintana or Nibali attacks from far out, other GC boys will work with Dumoulin to protect their own interest rather than making him do all chasing. This then might diminish the impact of such moves. Dekker-Tifosi also proposed a Dutch alliance scenario.

These are plausible scenarios, as far as it goes. However, there is also the quite realistic possibility that if Quintana or Nibali goes long on some stages, some GC boys can follow and others can't. This obviously splits the contributions they might make into breaking away / chasing. The question then is which group Dumoulin belongs to.


This.

It's not even just a case of these other riders protecting possible podium positions, but that they should still believe that they have a chance against Quintana himself. Providing that Nairo doesn't blow everyone away by over a minute on Oropa.

Dumoulin needs to NOT race like Contador and Nibali. I would go into each mountain stage with the mindset that if Quintana goes, he let's him go, unless there are a number of other contenders that go with him. Tom needs to concern himself more with the other contenders. So long as he doesn't lose more than 3 minutes to Quintana on stage 16, then he could still win this Giro, given that he doesn't lose more than a total of 2 minutes on the MTF's of stages 15 and 19, and that not a lot happens on stages 18 and 20 (there will be attacks, but the climbs are not as difficult/further from the finish).
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Re:

19 May 2017 09:35

vass45 wrote:Nario is still in great shape to take out this Giro. Only 2 and a half minutes of Dumoulin - and we all know we wont start seeing the best of Nario until stage 16. I'm pretty confident at some point after stage 16 Dumoulin will be isolated and crack - its really not a matter of if but when. He doesnt have the team to stop this from happening, and I can see Nario walting into the final TT day with a 4 - 5+ minute unassailable lead.



If the crack doesn't happen on stage 16, the odds of that happening later on decrease drastically IMO.
Plus stage 16 has only one crucial segment (Km 168 through 189) where the team can be very helpful.
If Tom D finds himself attached to Quintana in km 189 without having spent too much, he will carry on Umbrail with his own tempo and trying to limit his losses in the descent to Bormio.
But most of all, it will depend on the climbing legs. If Tom D. has the climbing legs of Blockhaus, Movistar will have to trouble a lot of water for success.
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19 May 2017 13:28

Some comments about the discussion here:

- If the crack doesn't happen on stage 16 then it becomes a problem. Now again it does not have to be a crack per se. I would not call 4 minutes a crack.

- I see the possibility of the dutch alliance. Not only that, the GT's are plagued with stories about lesser riders fighting and defending top ten positions. We have seen it how this forum goes ballistic about that. I don't think that is going to change. That goes against Quintana if he goes alone.

- Now I don't think some riders expect to defeat Quintana. They expect to defeat Dumoulin. You guys heard Nibali. I think they are expecting the crack from Dumoulin more than anything else. They are salivating about the second place more than about beating Quintana. IMHO. That works in Quintana's favor.

well based on this is a tie: 1-1 :)
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19 May 2017 13:43

the other consideration is the last climb comes 15km before the finish, if TD can stick with Quintana on the climb he can definitely drop him on the flat and TT away from him, assuming Moviestar aren't all there at the top of the climb.
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Re:

19 May 2017 13:47

Singer01 wrote:the other consideration is the last climb comes 15km before the finish, if TD can stick with Quintana on the climb he can definitely drop him on the flat and TT away from him, assuming Moviestar aren't all there at the top of the climb.

If TD is with Quintana on the peak of the last climb of stage 16, Quintana is already in trouble! :)
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Re:

19 May 2017 13:55

Singer01 wrote:the other consideration is the last climb comes 15km before the finish, if TD can stick with Quintana on the climb he can definitely drop him on the flat and TT away from him, assuming Moviestar aren't all there at the top of the climb.


I don't know which stage you are referring to, but nevertheless I don't see any scenario where only Tom D and Nairo are at the top of the climb together.
There might be Mollema, Pinot, Nibali and even Amador which will change the dynamics of the racing afterwards.
But I agree in the possibility of Tom D exploiting and forming alliances in the descents. Stage 15 is a fine example where Dumoulin can and must (IMO) exploit the technical descent of Selvino and the muro before Bergamo to gain a dozen of seconds.
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Re:

19 May 2017 20:41

Singer01 wrote:the other consideration is the last climb comes 15km before the finish, if TD can stick with Quintana on the climb he can definitely drop him on the flat and TT away from him, assuming Moviestar aren't all there at the top of the climb.


What flat? Drop him how? It's not a video game...
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20 May 2017 15:01

Don't think it's going to happen.
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20 May 2017 15:09

He is kidding with fire...
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20 May 2017 15:14

Very good effort today, good try! This was never a stage to win the Giro, at all, but losing 24 seconds is a bit problematic. Dumoulin did the same to Froome.

It doesn't really change anything, has to go on Stevlio and put a few teammates up the road.
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20 May 2017 15:14

There's no alternatives for Quintana. He and his team now needs to go all out during week 3.
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Re:

20 May 2017 15:14

SeriousSam wrote:On Betfair:

Image


Hm
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20 May 2017 15:25

I think he forced it on a climb that's not hard enough. Trying to hold back Dumoulin on <7% gradients cost him dearly. I feel that now everything depends on the Bormio stage. Dumoulin has shown to not only be the better TT'er, but also the better climber if the gradients are low enough. The Dolomites aren't hard enough to drop him early I think.
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