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Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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Re:

17 May 2017 18:28

LeoMontero wrote:Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

Maastricht, where Tom was born, is 50 meters above sea level, the lowest point in the Netherlands is 7 meters below sea level. Just saying :)

& he trained at altitude, & he doesn't have to match Quintana, just limit his losses. He has (considering the last TT) around 4 minutes to play with
Alberto we love you
on the road
you don't need to say this stuff
we saw you on the road
you blessed us with 9 great shows
let's not argue the toss about the official count
you are much bigger than that
~TourOfSardinia
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Re:

17 May 2017 18:37

LeoMontero wrote:Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 18:46

SeriousSam wrote:
SeriousSam wrote:
Image

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

Perhaps not a missed expected opportunity, but it could very well be a missed unexpected opportunity.
Goodbye, Tommeke; thank you for all you have given us!
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 18:57

DFA123 wrote:
LeoMontero wrote:Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.

there is also a reverse exaggeration that as third week comes quintana will start flying uphill, turning the opponents to dust, easily gaining 1 minute and more on any big mountain stage. I personally didn't see it in any gt and quite sure it won't happen this time either. still quite obvious nairo's the most likely winner, that's for sure.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 19:14

dacooley wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
LeoMontero wrote:Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.

there is also a reverse exaggeration that as third week comes quintana will start flying uphill, turning the opponents to dust, easily gaining 1 minute and more on any big mountain stage. I personally didn't see it in any gt and quite sure it won't happen this time either. still quite obvious nairo's the most likely winner, that's for sure.

I think Quintana could fairly easily gain a minute on most of the field here on a lot of those third week stages. He's done it before against better opposition in the Tour. The one exception is Nibali. If he's got his usual third week Giro form then he's a massive threat to Quintana imo. He won't be easy to drop and can gain a bit of time himself on descents and the final TT.

A lot of the hype is about Dumoulin, but the real threat to Quintana surely comes from Nibali. A rider who is unlikely to crack any time and has the skills to take time of his own on any of the last five or so stages.
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17 May 2017 19:14

I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....
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Re:

17 May 2017 19:17

hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....


Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 19:18

LaFlorecita wrote:
LeoMontero wrote:Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

Maastricht, where Tom was born, is 50 meters above sea level, the lowest point in the Netherlands is 7 meters below sea level. Just saying :)
I actually was about to check that, because I was sure the number at Schiphol Airport is -11, but then I remembered that those are feet ofc :o
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17 May 2017 19:29

what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.
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Re:

17 May 2017 19:42

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. ;) I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.
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Re:

17 May 2017 19:46

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

It sounded tongue-in-cheek to me
Alberto we love you
on the road
you don't need to say this stuff
we saw you on the road
you blessed us with 9 great shows
let's not argue the toss about the official count
you are much bigger than that
~TourOfSardinia
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 19:47

DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. ;) I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

You get good bike handling skills from dodging all the road furniture and loose dogs.
Alberto we love you
on the road
you don't need to say this stuff
we saw you on the road
you blessed us with 9 great shows
let's not argue the toss about the official count
you are much bigger than that
~TourOfSardinia
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17 May 2017 19:51

So there you have it. Nibali's assessment. It sounds like Nibali wants to join forces with Quintana. He knows he will benefit from it. But Quintana has different views:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/giro-ditalia-nibali-expected-a-quintana-attack-that-never-came-on-stage-11/
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Re:

17 May 2017 19:52

hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....

This.

Many of us share the same feeling.

Hopefully for Quintana, Dumo won't turn into a Froome. But you never know.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 19:59

DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. ;) I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

Then you don't recall correctly. He had to chase downhill twice while he was leader in the 2015 Vuelta: La Gallina and Morcuera. He didn't close the gap but he reduced it in both cases. So I wouldn't say he's a bad descender. Whether he manages to regain in the descents what he may lose in the climbs this year remains to be seen.
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17 May 2017 20:01

DFA, we all know what Quintana's plans are. The media knows, Dumoulin knows and the whole world knows what the plans are. That's why bets did not change after today. But many things can go wrong when you leave something all banked on an opportunity. That's the first mistake. Not being "unexpected". You have to use every opportunity you have. Nibali was even surprised that Quintana didn't have a go at it today. He was almost certain that Quintana would go in the last climb and that was probably why he attacked. Hell, why have 3 riders with in front?

Quintana is the stronger rider. This is a watts race where Dumo is mismatch everytime Quintana goes upwards. Why not use every opportunity. I am sure an rider never wants to lose a race being the stronger rider.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 20:06

LaFlorecita wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. ;) I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

You get good bike handling skills from dodging all the road furniture and loose dogs.

ha, that's true, certainly if Amstel Gold is anything to go by. Maybe you're just all too tall then and can't get the low center of gravity needed for the steep, tight switchbacks that the more dwarfish Spaniards and Italians can. Dumoulin's got quite a big head though, that should help get enough weight on the front wheel.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 20:23

ice&fire wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:what horrible generalisations by DFA. Holy hell. It's almost racist.

I'm actually offended. He's dutch, so he can't downhill? LOL. That's just funny.

Sure, it's a generalisation, but its not meant to be offensive. I mean, you have to admit, Dutch riders don't have a great record in recent years of going downhill when the pressure is on. Also, it's just my personal experience. I run cycling tours and training camps for a living and the Dutch riders that join us in general are among the worst descenders we see. Often a lot of confidence, but not so much technique. ;) I think it's just a skill that Dutch riders learn later than most of their peers in the pro peloton.

Dumoulin is kind of unproven in this. IIRC, he's never had to chase down riders or push really hard on a technical descent to win a race before. But it's certainly a potential weakness that I'm sure Nibali at least will look to test at some point.

Then you don't recall correctly. He had to chase downhill twice while he was leader in the 2015 Vuelta: La Gallina and Morcuera. He didn't close the gap but he reduced it in both cases. So I wouldn't say he's a bad descender. Whether he manages to regain in the descents what he may lose in the climbs this year remains to be seen.

Well, I did specify technical descent. Morcuera certainly isn't technical, it's a power descent which of course he can be good at. And on the Galina, I think you've mis-remembered it. Valverde was leading most of the descent from Dumoulin's group, trying to distance Froome, with Dumoulin sat quite far back in the group giving himself a fair bit of margin for error. (e.g. here https://youtu.be/4QGMKlIdxf4?t=11824. So, the jury is certainly still out on his descending under pressure.
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17 May 2017 20:39

never seen quintana showing himself as a very good or just a solid descender either. I'm really curious how he would've done the umbrail downhill alone if he had put 1-2 min in nibali, td, mollema on the top of the pass. it's definately going to be interesting to find out!
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17 May 2017 20:46

Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."
"This is the Tour that will determine whether I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
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