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Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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Re:

17 May 2017 20:50

Valv.Piti wrote:Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."


I loled. :lol:
User avatar lenric
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Re:

17 May 2017 20:51

dacooley wrote:never seen quintana showing himself as a very good or just a solid descender either. I'm really curious how he would've done the umbrail downhill alone if he had put 1-2 min in nibali, td, mollema on the top of the pass. it's definately going to be interesting to find out!

I think we've seen enough of Quintana to know that he's a technically competent, but unspectacular and relatively risk-free descender. There's not really many question marks there, we kind of know what we'll get from him. His problem is mostly his light weight on the gentler gradients, but on the steepish climbs of the Dolomites/Alps - especially the ones with so many hairpins, he should hold his own to all apart from the real daredevils like Nibali.
User avatar DFA123
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 20:52

lenric wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Quintana in the interview:
"We sent the riders ahead today in search of the others' weaknesses," he said, "but it turns out they aren't that weak."


I loled. :lol:

Ye, it also seems pretty trolly to me. I certaintly approve.
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User avatar Valv.Piti
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17 May 2017 21:04

Quintana's descending is OK. I'd say he defends himself but won't use it as a weapon.
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17 May 2017 21:13

Dfa'posts are getting worse day by day. *removed by King Boonen*... always writing crappy stuff about quintana or GVA



Edited by King Boonen: Post, not poster please.
portugal11
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 22:30

DFA123 wrote:
hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....


Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 02:40

Gigs_98 wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....


Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.


I disagree.

Quintana won the Giro because of the Stelvio fiasco: The race was neutralized and he kept going full steam ahead.

Quintana won the Vuelta thanks to the kamikaze attack of Contador on Formigal. If Contador hadn't attacked, Froome would have won that Vuelta.

The good thing in this Giro, is that Quintana can still win it, but, in order for him to do so, he'll go have to go into the red. That will cost him the Tour for sure.

Thanks Doumolin for making the Giro an interesting race!
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18 May 2017 04:41

over his career, nairo put two absolutely heroic stages in grand tours thus far. both on val martello and alpe d'huez (2015) he managed to distance all the contenders by taking a huge amount of time. yes, he got really lucky with the time confusion incident on the stelvio, but even with all things being equal and the big group reaching the foot of martello all together, he almost certainly would've been able to gain at the very least 1'30'' on aru, uran, keldermann and co. it seems plain obvious. notwithstanding, i wouldn't give me such a big credit and i'm not sure quintana can deliver such blistering showings as soon as he needs them. so it's going to be a very thrilling battle between him, td and nibs.
dacooley
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 07:09

Gigs_98 wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....


Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.

If you don't consider his move as Lagos de Covadonga as a big attack, then I think we just have very different standards. He also took time to the likes of Contador and Chaves on several different stages throughout the race, it certainly wasn't just the one big attack.

I think the tactic will be very similar this Giro. Try to take smallish time regularly against the likes of Nibali and Pinot - like he did against Contador and Chaves. Then destroy Dumoulin with one race-splitting attack - like he did to Froome.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 08:26

DFA123 wrote:If you don't consider his move as Lagos de Covadonga as a big attack, then I think we just have very different standards. He also took time to the likes of Contador and Chaves on several different stages throughout the race, it certainly wasn't just the one big attack.

I think the tactic will be very similar this Giro. Try to take smallish time regularly against the likes of Nibali and Pinot - like he did against Contador and Chaves. Then destroy Dumoulin with one race-splitting attack - like he did to Froome.

lagos de cavadonga attack allowed to get about 30'' on froome, for me it's pretty difficult to classify it as a big attack. it's clearly not a dynamics which might make dimoulin surrender in the giro. race-spliting attack doesn't seem elementary too. the thing we part our views is probably you don't see any chance of dimoulin being second strongest climber in the race. :)
dacooley
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18 May 2017 08:42

Easy my friends. Quintana needs to put 5 minutes on Dumoulin and the rest of the guys from now to the last stage, so we´ll have plenty of hard racing by him and Movistar.
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18 May 2017 09:20

With Dumoulin's TT skills, even more specifically in hilly tt's with downhill descents, I do not believe he is a bad technical descender. I think he has a great cornering technique. Which is logical, otherwise he wouldn't do well in TT's either
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Re:

18 May 2017 09:22

Fernandez wrote:Easy my friends. Quintana needs to put 5 minutes on Dumoulin and the rest of the guys from now to the last stage, so we´ll have plenty of hard racing by him and Movistar.

I can' see NQ 'take' 5 minutes. Dumoulin has to 'give' him 5 minutes by cracking severely. That's NQ's only possibility of winning this (Dumoulin cracking).
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18 May 2017 09:33

He only has to take 4 minutes and no, the only possbility isn't if Dumo cracks. There are plenty of hard stages for Quintana even if he doesn't completely crack, its high mountains and week 3 and of a GT, the jury is still out if Tom's w/kg will stay the same throughout the race.

But the perfect scenario will be killing him as soon as possible to conserve energy for TdF on double Stelvio, I think thats the strategy. But I think he will have to change the mindset (if thats the case), because I think he will have to dig very deep not only on one day, but on multiple to win this Giro. So **** the Tour, he is gonna win this race before thinking about that.
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18 May 2017 09:50

There are too many unknowns currently for me to have any confidence in predicting who will win. Assuming Dumoulin puts another 90 seconds into Quintana on the last stage is a big leap, because he is probably going to have to bury himself for 6 or 7 stages immediately before the TT to save his lead. Quintana is also known to get better in the last week of 3 week stage races, is Dumoulin? Will his form be the same in a TT on the last stage of a presumed very hard Giro.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 09:54

Volderke wrote:
Fernandez wrote:Easy my friends. Quintana needs to put 5 minutes on Dumoulin and the rest of the guys from now to the last stage, so we´ll have plenty of hard racing by him and Movistar.

I can' see NQ 'take' 5 minutes. Dumoulin has to 'give' him 5 minutes by cracking severely. That's NQ's only possibility of winning this (Dumoulin cracking).

Dumoulin will crack, Movistar will make him crack
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18 May 2017 10:16

Just take a look at the profiles for stages starting Tuesday. If Movistar, Bahrain, FdJ ride those stages hard from far out on multiple mountains, isolate him soon and the likes of Nibs, Nairo and Pinot attack him there is no way he can cover all. He can loose minutes between the climbs. Does anybody know how Dumoulin climbs at over 2000m?
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 10:41

DFA123 wrote:
Gigs_98 wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
hfer07 wrote:I hope Nairito isn't going for the same old 3 week gamble, expecting to destroy Dumoulin in the last MTF, and not considering the final ITT at all. He better remember a certain fellow called "Purito" & how he lost Il Giro in the very last ITT stage.....


Let's not forget that Quintana won the Vuelta last year with a late TT, against a very strong TTer who was also a much, much better climber than Dumoulin. And he did so by being very aggressive and taking time at loads of opportunities throughout the race.

So perhaps the same old 3 week gamble is just that. Old.

No Quintana won last years Vuelta because of the Formigal stage. Just like he won the Giro 2014 because of the Stelvio stage. Ofc. in both cases he might have won the race anyway if he hadn't attacked on those two stages, but still so far Quintana has won his two only gt's with one big attack and lost the only other one where he really had a chance because he didn't attack earlier in the Alps of the tdf 2015.
I don't really think he will make that mistake again though. Maybe he doesn't attack on Oropa but he won't gain much time there anyway. And then the next mountain stage after that already is the Stelvio stage, where an attack is almost certain. And if that attack doesn't work, well then he will have to attack on the remaining stages anyway. I hardly believe that he is stupid enough to not attack on these stages if he doesn't gain time in the queen stage.

If you don't consider his move as Lagos de Covadonga as a big attack, then I think we just have very different standards. He also took time to the likes of Contador and Chaves on several different stages throughout the race, it certainly wasn't just the one big attack.

I think the tactic will be very similar this Giro. Try to take smallish time regularly against the likes of Nibali and Pinot - like he did against Contador and Chaves. Then destroy Dumoulin with one race-splitting attack - like he did to Froome.

He indeed attacked from relatively far out in the Lagos de Covadonga stage (far out for a mountain top finish), but I didn't want to say that he only attacked once, but that he won the vuelta because of one attack. If I calculated correctly he gained time on froome in four different mountain stages, the formigal stage, and three other stages where he gained 1:06 on Froome. If you look on the final gc you can see that Quintana won by 1:23, so if he hadn't attacked on any of these stages he still would have won with his Formigal attack only, where he gained 2:43 (including bonus seconds). On the other hand if he hadn't attacked on the formigal stage, the time he gained on other stages wouldn't have been enough to win the gc. Thats what I wanted to say with "he won the vuelta with one big attack"

Iker_Baqueiro wrote:
I disagree.

Quintana won the Giro because of the Stelvio fiasco: The race was neutralized and he kept going full steam ahead.

Quintana won the Vuelta thanks to the kamikaze attack of Contador on Formigal. If Contador hadn't attacked, Froome would have won that Vuelta.


The good thing in this Giro, is that Quintana can still win it, but, in order for him to do so, he'll go have to go into the red. That will cost him the Tour for sure.

Thanks Doumolin for making the Giro an interesting race!

I agree, but the point of my post wasn't to point out how he won the crucial stage, but that he won the gc because of only one crucial stage.
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18 May 2017 10:57

How high is Rettenbachferner? He did pretty well on there in Suisse when he was still more of a pure TT specialist and did no specific climb training.
Tbh he's been at Teide for a month, so it should not bother him. Normally he'll lose time in mountain stages. But they really need a big crack.
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Re:

18 May 2017 11:28

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:How high is Rettenbachferner? He did pretty well on there in Suisse when he was still more of a pure TT specialist and did no specific climb training.
Tbh he's been at Teide for a month, so it should not bother him. Normally he'll lose time in mountain stages. But they really need a big crack.

Rettenbach is Stelvio-altitude, but this time he obviously has to go up there 2 times
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