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Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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17 Jun 2018 01:28

One stage in the TDS doesn't mean much in the Tour but I think the Landa rivalry will keep him on his toes. 2017 Giro form won't be enough for Quintana but if he can find his previous form then he has as much chance as anyone.
movingtarget
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17 Jun 2018 09:01

the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.
dacooley
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Re:

17 Jun 2018 14:37

dacooley wrote:the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.

2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!
User avatar Escarabajo
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Re: Re:

17 Jun 2018 16:04

Escarabajo wrote:
dacooley wrote:the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.

2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!

against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.
dacooley
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Re: Re:

17 Jun 2018 17:18

dacooley wrote:
Escarabajo wrote:
dacooley wrote:the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.

2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!

against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.


Add Nibali as well. When he's racing well he also typically does a good ITT. His TTT should be better at the Tour with the Izagirre brothers there.

Agreed Porte will have the best TTT and then is also a good with ITTs as well.
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Re: Re:

17 Jun 2018 18:27

Koronin wrote:
dacooley wrote:
Escarabajo wrote:
dacooley wrote:the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.

2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!

against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.


Add Nibali as well. When he's racing well he also typically does a good ITT. His TTT should be better at the Tour with the Izagirre brothers there.

Agreed Porte will have the best TTT and then is also a good with ITTs as well.

Not necessarily. Sky may win the TTT and have a good chance of winning. Their team is far better and stronger,
The only question now remains is can they convert it into a win.
Last time around, Poels cracked early, hence, Nico Roche had to go really deep and cracked on the final ramp.
This is the Tour. This will be Sky A team. Froome, Thomas, Poels, Bernal, Kwiato, Moscon, Rowe....
BMC is trembling.
SeriousSam wrote: Peña Cabarga is like Froome's Mount Doom, the place where his great power was forged into fearsome weapon. He was never going to lose here
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Re: Re:

17 Jun 2018 19:02

silvergrenade wrote:
Koronin wrote:
dacooley wrote:
Escarabajo wrote:
dacooley wrote:the biggest issue is nairo should small all other contenders in the mountains to win the tour, so reproducing 2013, 2016 3rd weeks form is what's needed. just being strongest climber is not enough while the likelihood of movistar being capable of replicating a vuelta-esque race-splitting move is very small.

2015

He needs top TT with a top Froome only. If he has that form from 2015 or 2013 should be OK if he doesn't screw the tactics and goes unscathed the first week. I would worry more about the first week than the TT IMHO.
He can still produce a decent TT on that Tour parcours if he is in good form.

IMHO!

against porte as well. the prospect of leaving TTT with a 1'30-2' deficit seems quite probable.


Add Nibali as well. When he's racing well he also typically does a good ITT. His TTT should be better at the Tour with the Izagirre brothers there.

Agreed Porte will have the best TTT and then is also a good with ITTs as well.

Not necessarily. Sky may win the TTT and have a good chance of winning. Their team is far better and stronger,
The only question now remains is can they convert it into a win.
Last time around, Poels cracked early, hence, Nico Roche had to go really deep and cracked on the final ramp.
This is the Tour. This will be Sky A team. Froome, Thomas, Poels, Bernal, Kwiato, Moscon, Rowe....
BMC is trembling.



Sky's A team only put 35ish seconds on BMC's C team. That isn't very good.
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17 Jun 2018 19:06

Some would argue that it was Skys B team. :p
Furthermore, the differences wont be huge. The stage will be won and lost within 5-10 seconds.
SeriousSam wrote: Peña Cabarga is like Froome's Mount Doom, the place where his great power was forged into fearsome weapon. He was never going to lose here
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17 Jun 2018 19:09

BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.
Son of Amsterhammer
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Re:

17 Jun 2018 19:12

Son of Amsterhammer wrote:BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.


This.
User avatar Koronin
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Re:

17 Jun 2018 19:12

Son of Amsterhammer wrote:BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.

Oh...we'll see. :p ;)
The Tour is another league altogether.
SeriousSam wrote: Peña Cabarga is like Froome's Mount Doom, the place where his great power was forged into fearsome weapon. He was never going to lose here
User avatar silvergrenade
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Re:

17 Jun 2018 23:47

Son of Amsterhammer wrote:BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.


Those should be the three teams. Anything else would be a surprise. Better for Porte if Sky get yellow early. Could be close.
movingtarget
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Re: Re:

18 Jun 2018 06:10

movingtarget wrote:
Son of Amsterhammer wrote:BMC to the take it. Sky and Sunweb won’t be far behind though.


Those should be the three teams. Anything else would be a surprise. Better for Porte if Sky get yellow early. Could be close.


Mitchelton Scott should do well if they choose the right team - I worry about Bahrain Merida because Izagirre x2 both struggled in Suisse.
yaco
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01 Jul 2018 18:04

i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.
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Re:

01 Jul 2018 21:08

saneguy wrote:i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.



He'd have to find his 2015 form to have a shot at winning (Froome or not) and he hasn't been that good since. His TTing hasn't improved, if anything it's regressed and his climbing doesn't appear to be what it was. It almost appears that at 28 he's already started his decline. Now it's possible he can surprise us, but that's what is appears. Of course he may not even finish ahead of two of his teammates either.
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Re: Re:

01 Jul 2018 21:14

Koronin wrote:
saneguy wrote:i have my doubts for Nairo in this Tour. Plus the Landa - Quintana rivalry doesnt bode well. I'd be surprised if Nairo can manage a Podium place. Victory is altogether another thing.

He has to have a supreme ITT to stand any chance. Of late my bigger worry with him is 3 weeks form. He cracked on many climbs in the last 2 years.



He'd have to find his 2015 form to have a shot at winning (Froome or not) and he hasn't been that good since. His TTing hasn't improved, if anything it's regressed and his climbing doesn't appear to be what it was. It almost appears that at 28 he's already started his decline. Now it's possible he can surprise us, but that's what is appears. Of course he may not even finish ahead of two of his teammates either.

2015 Tour OR Vuelta 2016.

I had absolutely no expectations for Quintana last year at this point, but I have now. Quintana has prepared meticulously for exactly this race compared to previous years and solely ridden previous races for preparation, at least in the spring. After that one performance in Arosa I believe him to be the favourite to win the whole race if Froome doesn't turn up, altho a very little one. 6-7 riders can realistically win.

And thats also why it sucked even more to have Valverde crash out in 2017. Yes, he had won.
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09 Jul 2018 10:19

http://naszosie.pl/2018/07/08/trener-sylwester-szmyd-o-saganie-quintanie-i-froomie-wywiad/

Great article with Szmyd. It seems like Bala will have Erviti and Nairo will have Bennati on 9th stage. At least it was scheduled this way before the tour. I am curious how will they respond to Nairo time loss.
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Re:

09 Jul 2018 10:52

alexix7 wrote:http://naszosie.pl/2018/07/08/trener-sylwester-szmyd-o-saganie-quintanie-i-froomie-wywiad/

Great article with Szmyd. It seems like Bala will have Erviti and Nairo will have Bennati on 9th stage. At least it was scheduled this way before the tour. I am curious how will they respond to Nairo time loss.

And Landa should see for himself, roughly translated :lol:
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09 Jul 2018 22:01

2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over
IndianCyclist
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 00:06

IndianCyclist wrote:2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over


Depends how the other GT riders go but one more chunk of time lost against better TT riders means it's game over for another year. He would have to be climbing at 2015 level to have any chance of making up good time.
movingtarget
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