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Nairo Quintana discussion thread

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10 Jul 2018 01:09

I liked the fact that he was making a long and hard pull on that climb on the second time check. Couple of his teammates looked like imploding. Not sure who they were. The lost quite a bit of time on the second part.
User avatar Escarabajo
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 01:48

IndianCyclist wrote:2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over


The cobbled stage is a wildcard. Yes, he might lose time, but so could any of his rivals. Luck will be a huge factor again. The ITT is not for the specialists. It will also come at the end of the Tour when he will be stronger than other riders who would ordinarily do better than him (see the Giro last year).

Basically, he needs to make it out of the cobbled stage without losing more time to his main rivals (Porte, Froome, etc). If he can do that, he will still have a reasonably good chance to make up the difference.
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10 Jul 2018 01:55

I'll be happy if he makes it unscathed or unhurt. That way even if down on GC he still can attack or show some good action in the mountains.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 08:09

IndianCyclist wrote:2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over


2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 08:55

Blanco wrote:
IndianCyclist wrote:2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over


2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D

I think you're dismissing a man who was 1st and 2nd in his only two legit GT attempts in absolute bonkers racing very lightly. There are no guarantees. Not that somebody will win, nor that somebody will crack.
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 10:17

Red Rick wrote:
Blanco wrote:
IndianCyclist wrote:2 minutes down already with the cobble stage and a 31k TT to come. Could easily become a 6 min deficit to overcome. Possible dream over


2 min on who? Thomas and Dumoulin... They won't be his rivals for the win. He needs to look how he stands against Froome, Porte, Nibali, Bardet... and Landa :D

I think you're dismissing a man who was 1st and 2nd in his only two legit GT attempts in absolute bonkers racing very lightly. There are no guarantees. Not that somebody will win, nor that somebody will crack.


Of course there's no guarantees, but I think Giro and Tour in succession is a task too big for him right now.
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10 Jul 2018 10:35

Happens in every GT.
A contender loses a couple minutes in the first week and suddenly a number of posters claim he's done.

Just check Froome's topic during the Giro. We'll never learn.
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10 Jul 2018 10:42

Clearly Froome is a special case ...
Nairo will lose more time on the cobbles. He'll be behind going into the mountains. I'm hoping he'll attack long range in the mountains
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10 Jul 2018 11:02

сobbles stage is a big lottery. i still tend to think the 2010 stage could've most likely ended up with 50-60 riders finishing together if schleck hadn't crashed and there hadn't been a traffic jan as a consequence. tour stages never include 5 star paris roubaix sectors, that's mostly soft cobble sections involved, where drafting effect is immense, so who needs to take care of his gc position nine times out of ten will manage to stay upfront and not be gapped. but once any of big guns fall off the bike, punctrures or gets a mechanical, the race is pretty much doomed to go full throttle.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 11:20

Escarabajo wrote:I'll be happy if he makes it unscathed or unhurt. That way even if down on GC he still can attack or show some good action in the mountains.

Actually Roubaix is not the only dangerous stage. All the remaining flat stages in week one are. Hope Quintana makes it all right as well.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 12:46

topcat wrote:Clearly Froome is a special case ...
Nairo will lose more time on the cobbles. He'll be behind going into the mountains. I'm hoping he'll attack long range in the mountains


Cobbles are no respecters of people. Quintana could be the one to lose time or Froome could get 10 punctures and be the one to lose. I know it’s not all about luck. You have to have the skill of riding on cobbles. But you never know...Quintana just might stay close to the GC riders on the cobbles. These type of stages aren’t always guaranteed to be bangers.
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10 Jul 2018 12:49

quintana needs luck till sunday , then we will see fireworks
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 16:11

SafeBet wrote:Happens in every GT.
A contender loses a couple minutes in the first week and suddenly a number of posters claim he's done.

Just check Froome's topic during the Giro. We'll never learn.


I don't think many riders if any could have done what Froome did in the Giro. As long as Quintana's losses are kept to a minimum he's not out of it completely but one more bad stage and he's done. There will be too much time to make up in the mountains before the TT which he will lose time in as well. If he hasn't lost much more time after stage 9 he's still in it because Froome and Dumoulin may struggle in the third week and they are his most consistent rivals and the best TT GC riders. Uran looks well placed as well with a few good hilly stages to come which should suit him.
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Re: Nairo Quintana discussion thread

10 Jul 2018 17:30

Don't think NQ will be allowed to attack up the road, no matter how far back on GC he is. He would be a good helper for Landa so he will be marked. It could be a case of 1 Movistar rival down 1 to go. Crumbled before the first rest day.
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10 Jul 2018 19:55

Froome was sole leader of his team. Quintana is not. There are two other options on that team so he won't have the full freedom of a sole leader. However having him attack would be a smart move as other teams aren't going to let him go. Two years ago Sky said that if Valverde wanted to go into a break to go stage hunting he'd need to loose at least 15 or more minutes before they'd be comfortable letting him go otherwise they'd be afraid he would managed to end up winning the whole thing because they weren't paying attention.
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10 Jul 2018 20:33

I remember that, then he flatted and lost 10 minutes :lol:

Let's face it, NQ has never come back from time lost in the early stages of the Tour.
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10 Jul 2018 20:50

Movistar will probably try go full 2008 CSC on the Alpe d'Huez stage, we have a Quintana that has to attack, a Landa that is just himself and always wants to do something and Valverde who can just follow moves and outsprint people in the end.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 20:56

hazaran wrote:I remember that, then he flatted and lost 10 minutes :lol:

Let's face it, NQ has never come back from time lost in the early stages of the Tour.

???
You lost me. What are you talking about? 1 Tour against Froome only?? and only 1 minute.
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 22:22

Escarabajo wrote:
hazaran wrote:I remember that, then he flatted and lost 10 minutes :lol:

Let's face it, NQ has never come back from time lost in the early stages of the Tour.

???
You lost me. What are you talking about? 1 Tour against Froome only?? and only 1 minute.


Valverde lost 10 minutes after a puncture in 2013.
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10 Jul 2018 22:32

Anyone that thinks that a fresh and in form Quintana can’t take reasonable time on Froome in the mountains is really mind boggling. Froome had to go really deep to win the Giro. He isn’t going to be at his best in the third week.
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