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Brothers in (crank) arms - Yates Discussion Thread

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Re:

16 Sep 2018 10:43

yaco wrote:Congratulations to Mitchelton Scott who've identified young potential GC riders in Yates x2 and Chaves, then developed them so they can be at the pointy end in GT's - Next target will be to get A.Yates to the level of S.Yates - My gut feel is S.Yates will ride the Giro and A.Yates will do the TDF in 2019.


I would say the opposite. Given SY's form, why not go all out for the Tour? I'd pencil in Adam or Chaves for the Giro, then Simon for the Tour with both as support riders, then whichever one of them didn't do the Giro as the Vuelta hopeful. IMO Simon should just do one tour next year, and hopefully will be the Tdf.

If Simon decides to focus on Giro next year, and fails, then he'll be baked for the Tour. The Tour is still the big pricze.
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Re:

16 Sep 2018 10:43

yaco wrote:Congratulations to Mitchelton Scott who've identified young potential GC riders in Yates x2 and Chaves, then developed them so they can be at the pointy end in GT's - Next target will be to get A.Yates to the level of S.Yates - My gut feel is S.Yates will ride the Giro and A.Yates will do the TDF in 2019.

Thats my gut feeling to. I still think its too early to go the Tour, we have seen riders in the past (Aru, Zakarin and Chaves) who have had great success doing the Giro/Vuelta, but when going to the Tour, they have been underwhelming. For a type of rider like Simon, I think focusing on the Giro/Vuelta for the majority of his career is the best thing to do and throw in 2, maybe 3 TdF attempts in similar to Purito.
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Re: Re:

16 Sep 2018 11:30

Bolder wrote:
Red Rick wrote:Sky was full train for like 2 stages in the Giro, and they only needed a few dudes cause that's how it works on climbs like the Zoncolan. I just have a very hard time seeing Yates make up the 2 minutes he drops in TTT(somebody please nuke) and ITT.


Exactly^^.

Can SY win the Tour? Of course, but I don't think he can win against a strong TT'er who can climb and who also has a formidable train. I.E. Froomer or Thomas.

I think if he were mano-a-mano against Dumoulin/Sunweb, yes, it would be a tossup. He can take time on Dumoulin in the mountains, but will certainly lose 2+ plus depending on how the TTs are set up. And Sunweb are world champs in TTT. So against an in-form Dumoulin it would be very tough for Yates or another pure climber to win, but possible. But against Sky, with Poels/Bernal/Kwiat leading out Froome or Thomas? I think Yates wouldn't have a chance to attack.


Orica/Mitchelton won the opening TTT in the 2014 and 2015 Giros. Thats not yesterday, but it’s not ancient history (like when Garmin used to win TTTs) either. If they need a TTT train for a race, I’m pretty sure they can put one together that will at least keep their losses within reason.

They were 4th at 9s in the TTT at the Tour this year.
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Re: Re:

16 Sep 2018 13:05

Valv.Piti wrote:
yaco wrote:Congratulations to Mitchelton Scott who've identified young potential GC riders in Yates x2 and Chaves, then developed them so they can be at the pointy end in GT's - Next target will be to get A.Yates to the level of S.Yates - My gut feel is S.Yates will ride the Giro and A.Yates will do the TDF in 2019.

Thats my gut feeling to. I still think its too early to go the Tour, we have seen riders in the past (Aru, Zakarin and Chaves) who have had great success doing the Giro/Vuelta, but when going to the Tour, they have been underwhelming. For a type of rider like Simon, I think focusing on the Giro/Vuelta for the majority of his career is the best thing to do and throw in 2, maybe 3 TdF attempts in similar to Purito.


Maybe, but you have to take your opportunities when they come. Right now we're in a bit of an uncertain period when it comes to younger, proven GT riders, with the exception of Dumoulin. Froome/Thomas are older, not saying they can't win again, but 33/34 could be pushing it. The northern Europeans (Kruijswijk/Mollema) haven't quite panned out. Quintana and Uran remain question marks as do the French and the Italians (Nibali/Aru).

Roglic is a threat but he'll be a threat for a while no matter what Yates does. Bernal/Lopez/Mas are also threats but again, facing them at the Giro or Vuelta's going to be tough, too. All three have the potential to be as good or better than Yates on any given stage.

Having Haig, Adam and Chaves and maybe Nieve as lieutenants, assuming they ride as they're capable of (and thanks for the reminder that Orica is a good TTT team, had forgotten) is a pretty strong lineup.
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16 Sep 2018 13:35

Michelton have tasted success in a grand tour and I think the Tour will be their next target albeit a harder task. But Froome can't ride like this forever, Nibali is probably past his best,Quintana is struggling to regain his old form and many other riders are simply inconsistent. Yes many younger riders show great promise but that doesn't always mean they will be successful in the best races. I see no reason for Michelton not to target the Tour and with Haig improving, Adam Yates as well plus Chaves hoping to get back on track, Michelton have options across all three grand tours. Maybe a bit more depth in climbing domestiques will also help them.
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16 Sep 2018 15:04

This would be my squad for the TDF if Simon Yates was the leader.

Simon
Adam
Jack Haig

Bookwalter
Howson

Juul-Jensen
Durbridge
Hepburn

Trentin, Impey and Nieve as reserves. Hopefully with Howson and Bookwalter they'd be able to help on a few climbs, and a fully rested Haig and Adam Yates should be a good help and represent one of the strongest mountain domestique duos out there other than Bernal and whoever else Sky would have (dependent on who else rides the race for other teams/ who they'll wholeheartedly support). All three of the flatland domestiques have enough experience to position Simon and can handle themselves on cobbles and in a TTT (although there likely won't be one).

That frees up the Giro squad to be:
Hamilton
Nieve
Trentin
Albasini
Edmondson
Meyer
Bewley (Assuming he stays)
Schultz

That's a squad that allows them to target stages, though they really need a bigger squad (Stannard would not be ready to ride a GT in his first year and I'd prefer Scotson to ride the Vuelta). Even if Chaves does recover from his illness by the Giro, i'd prefer to see him ride smaller events throughout the year and ride the Vuelta.

What I'd like for Mitchelton to do with their three leaders next year (excluding Chaves for now and promoting Haig to a leadership status for weeklong races) is this:
Haig: Ride the TDU and Sun-Tour, try fight to at least podium one of them. That should satisfy the home crowd, unless if one of the Yates' can also be brought out for it. Then he can either target Algarve or Oman (or any other new race) then relax (he can still ride other races but in support). I'd like to see him given an opportunity to lead the team at a race like Romandie too, then whatever race out of Suisse or the Dauphinie ride to get ready for the TDF. Maybe after that he can go to the Vuelta and hunt for stages, to continue adding to his palmares.

Adam: I'd love to see him target the Ardennes, and I think his program this year with T-A (with the addition of Pais Vasco) would prepare him for that. I'd also like if he rode Strade Bianche, as I think it might be a race that suits him. To prepare for the TDF i'd like to see him try for GC at the TDS, as the competition is usually not as controlled by Sky, and I don't think he'll burn himself out before the TDF riding that. After the Tour, send him to San-Sebastian and the Canadian races, or even Poland as I think it'll allow him more opportunities to ride for himself and allow him to get even more of a feel for winning.

Simon: In my view- if he's going to ride the TDF- he has to challenge himself against the likes of Froome, Dumoulin and other tour contenders in as many races as possible. A win at a big stage race (PN, TA, Catalunya, Vasco, Romandie, Dauphinie or Suisse) before the TDF would be ideal for morale and should be a realistic goal not just for him but the team. With my ideal schedule for the other two riders included I'd like to see him attempt to win either P-N or Catalunya, as he tried this year and he can maybe chuck in another race, probably Romandie as a ride to kickstart his preparation for the Tour (riding as a domestique for Haig). At the Dauphinie it'd be great to see his form evolve and hopefully he can stick with the sky train (I'd expect Froome and Thomas to be on usual great form for this race) and learn for the TDF where he'll probably have to attack to gain advantages before any gains are negated by time-trials. I'm a big fan of the traditional method to peak for the TDF (get an initial peak, then train and recuperate for the TDF) followed by riders such as Evans in 2011, Quintana and Froome in 2013 etc as I think it gives them an opportunity to race and win at races throughout the year, boost morale, be important in terms of markers for form and see what can be improved for the actual Tour. After that part of the season it would be interesting to see Simon back up at the Vuelta as most of the other GC riders go from the TDF to the Vuelta, but it depends on how he feels.

Of course with all these schedules and objectives I acknowledge that it's not likely, personally I'd like to see Haig and even Simon target the Ardennes too as they both could be great in those races. However if the actual schedules allowed for: Haig evolving into a winner; saw Adam go really well at the Ardennes; saw Simon win a WT stage race before the Tour; and lastly resulted in a full on GC tilt at the TDF that doesn't suffer a catastrophic setback (crash, monstrous bonk, not enough team support) I'd be happy.
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Re: Re:

16 Sep 2018 15:59

Valv.Piti wrote:
yaco wrote:Congratulations to Mitchelton Scott who've identified young potential GC riders in Yates x2 and Chaves, then developed them so they can be at the pointy end in GT's - Next target will be to get A.Yates to the level of S.Yates - My gut feel is S.Yates will ride the Giro and A.Yates will do the TDF in 2019.

Thats my gut feeling to. I still think its too early to go the Tour, we have seen riders in the past (Aru, Zakarin and Chaves) who have had great success doing the Giro/Vuelta, but when going to the Tour, they have been underwhelming. For a type of rider like Simon, I think focusing on the Giro/Vuelta for the majority of his career is the best thing to do and throw in 2, maybe 3 TdF attempts in similar to Purito.

Doesn't go for all. Dumoulin had 1 Giro attempt (immediate success), and then next year 2nd in both Giro and TDF.

I think Simon would do well in TDF. He's not the same rider as Aru, Chaves or Zakarin. But ten times better
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16 Sep 2018 16:21

A well considered post by GreenEdge - Will add that MS is spending big money on Yates x 2, so it's imperative each target GC in at least one GT per year - Chaves has started riding his bike again in Columbia, but is no certainty to race much in 2019 - The team needs another mountain domestic and has been frustrated by missing out on transfer targets - They also need two more rouleurs and it's such a desperate state that Hayman may ride on in 2019 - You are right there will be pressure on S.Yates to race in Australia in 2019.
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16 Sep 2018 18:22

He should complete the unfinished business with Maglia Rosa first.
I think it's the sign of a clean rider and a real sportsman to be attracted to the bigger challenge over the ultimate result. Good luck with the Giro/Tour double, Chris Froome. -Phil Gaimon
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16 Sep 2018 18:54

Matt White and Simon himself have all but said the Giro will be the target next year

Also Simon looks set to win the World Tour rankings this year unless Valverde wins Lombardy + goes to Turkey or China which I doubt.
or Sagan goes to any and gets points which I doubt as well.
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16 Sep 2018 19:11

Pre winning the Vuelta Simon was talking about ending his season with Lombardia, unless he won the World Championship

I wonder if the Vuelta win will change his plans

I hope not
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Re:

16 Sep 2018 19:37

del1962 wrote:Pre winning the Vuelta Simon was talking about ending his season with Lombardia, unless he won the World Championship

I wonder if the Vuelta win will change his plans

I hope not


The battle for the top of the CQranking could be ferocious between him and Valverde.
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Re:

16 Sep 2018 23:54

yaco wrote:A well considered post by GreenEdge - Will add that MS is spending big money on Yates x 2, so it's imperative each target GC in at least one GT per year - Chaves has started riding his bike again in Columbia, but is no certainty to race much in 2019 - The team needs another mountain domestic and has been frustrated by missing out on transfer targets - They also need two more rouleurs and it's such a desperate state that Hayman may ride on in 2019 - You are right there will be pressure on S.Yates to race in Australia in 2019.


Thanks! True, but if that's the case I'd still like to see Adam wholeheartedly support Simon then if he rode the TDF. I think Adam's a great rider, but i've been disappointed by a few of his GT's as of late (last year's Giro had the crash so that was a factor, but at that Vuelta I'd have expected him to be much better. Also this year he cracked at the TDF, though he did tried admirably to stage hunt). I'm just wondering whether his true path is GT's, but I do think he's an amazing rider who has all the tools to go well in GC who can hopefully get back to a top 5 in a GT soon.

In regards to the WT rankings, i feel as if such a schedule would allow for Mitchelton to continue racking up WT points, and if they have a successful race at the TDF there'd be a big points haul that would outweigh targeting two GT's with weaker GC support resulting in both. I also think they'd have the luxury of not having to worry about a lack of points, as evidenced by this year, so can afford to focus on the biggest GT of all.

All these ideal schedules might become moot if Simon does ride the Giro though, but at least he should be considered the favourite in such a race, I can see Kruijswijk riding it, but I think Lopez will go to the TDF and Carapaz might go there too to learn.
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Re: Re:

17 Sep 2018 03:50

greenedge wrote:
yaco wrote:A well considered post by GreenEdge - Will add that MS is spending big money on Yates x 2, so it's imperative each target GC in at least one GT per year - Chaves has started riding his bike again in Columbia, but is no certainty to race much in 2019 - The team needs another mountain domestic and has been frustrated by missing out on transfer targets - They also need two more rouleurs and it's such a desperate state that Hayman may ride on in 2019 - You are right there will be pressure on S.Yates to race in Australia in 2019.


Thanks! True, but if that's the case I'd still like to see Adam wholeheartedly support Simon then if he rode the TDF. I think Adam's a great rider, but i've been disappointed by a few of his GT's as of late (last year's Giro had the crash so that was a factor, but at that Vuelta I'd have expected him to be much better. Also this year he cracked at the TDF, though he did tried admirably to stage hunt). I'm just wondering whether his true path is GT's, but I do think he's an amazing rider who has all the tools to go well in GC who can hopefully get back to a top 5 in a GT soon.

In regards to the WT rankings, i feel as if such a schedule would allow for Mitchelton to continue racking up WT points, and if they have a successful race at the TDF there'd be a big points haul that would outweigh targeting two GT's with weaker GC support resulting in both. I also think they'd have the luxury of not having to worry about a lack of points, as evidenced by this year, so can afford to focus on the biggest GT of all.

All these ideal schedules might become moot if Simon does ride the Giro though, but at least he should be considered the favourite in such a race, I can see Kruijswijk riding it, but I think Lopez will go to the TDF and Carapaz might go there too to learn.


It does seem that S.Yates will ride the Giro which will leave the TDF for A.Yates - My view is teams can only have strong squads for two of the GT's, and in fact MS's weakest tour squad was at the Vuelta - I will also add that for some reason the TDF is a bogy race for MS - Anyway MS have some holes in their squad which need to be addressed - They need another quality mountain domestic, need two rouleurs with the retirement of Tuft and Hayman and they need to boost their classics squad - I'll also add that they will have three neo-pros for 2019 and may even have four - Reckon the TDF is the last race where MS will send a strong team - I'll also add they need to target a WT level sprinter - Ackermann and Bennett are out of contract next year BUT their biggest priority is to get Matthews back which was their biggest transfer failing in the last few years.
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Re: Re:

17 Sep 2018 06:48

yaco wrote:
greenedge wrote:
yaco wrote:A well considered post by GreenEdge - Will add that MS is spending big money on Yates x 2, so it's imperative each target GC in at least one GT per year - Chaves has started riding his bike again in Columbia, but is no certainty to race much in 2019 - The team needs another mountain domestic and has been frustrated by missing out on transfer targets - They also need two more rouleurs and it's such a desperate state that Hayman may ride on in 2019 - You are right there will be pressure on S.Yates to race in Australia in 2019.


Thanks! True, but if that's the case I'd still like to see Adam wholeheartedly support Simon then if he rode the TDF. I think Adam's a great rider, but i've been disappointed by a few of his GT's as of late (last year's Giro had the crash so that was a factor, but at that Vuelta I'd have expected him to be much better. Also this year he cracked at the TDF, though he did tried admirably to stage hunt). I'm just wondering whether his true path is GT's, but I do think he's an amazing rider who has all the tools to go well in GC who can hopefully get back to a top 5 in a GT soon.

In regards to the WT rankings, i feel as if such a schedule would allow for Mitchelton to continue racking up WT points, and if they have a successful race at the TDF there'd be a big points haul that would outweigh targeting two GT's with weaker GC support resulting in both. I also think they'd have the luxury of not having to worry about a lack of points, as evidenced by this year, so can afford to focus on the biggest GT of all.

All these ideal schedules might become moot if Simon does ride the Giro though, but at least he should be considered the favourite in such a race, I can see Kruijswijk riding it, but I think Lopez will go to the TDF and Carapaz might go there too to learn.


It does seem that S.Yates will ride the Giro which will leave the TDF for A.Yates - My view is teams can only have strong squads for two of the GT's, and in fact MS's weakest tour squad was at the Vuelta - I will also add that for some reason the TDF is a bogy race for MS - Anyway MS have some holes in their squad which need to be addressed - They need another quality mountain domestic, need two rouleurs with the retirement of Tuft and Hayman and they need to boost their classics squad - I'll also add that they will have three neo-pros for 2019 and may even have four - Reckon the TDF is the last race where MS will send a strong team - I'll also add they need to target a WT level sprinter - Ackermann and Bennett are out of contract next year BUT their biggest priority is to get Matthews back which was their biggest transfer failing in the last few years.



Can agree with quite a deal of what you are saying but I steer well away from your "prophet of doom" pronouncements over recruitment.


I will agree that the Vuelta line-up didi not read particularly strong on paper but it DID include 2 riders in Haig (most of the race) and AY (later stages) who perforrmed strongly in support of SY. The rest of the team was also sufficiently committed to "doing their bit" and sometimes a little beyond.


As for quality climbing domestique, its hard to know as Chaves' future looks uncertain at this point and does AY have it to be any more than what he has already show over 3 weeks ? Haig will probably get a run over the next 2 years as either the GC man at a GT to which they are not going "all out" OR as B option to a serious campaign. Nieve performed well and one hopes his retention come contract time next year is a key objective. Another clearly established mountain domestique would certainly be nice but, just how many of them are there going around and their pricetags are comensurate with that reality.


Rouleurs ?? If we are talking big engine flatland grunt power; whilst Tuft and Hayman will be missed they aren't necessarily running on empty in this regard. If Durbridge and Bewley are retained, then you also have Hepburn, Joker, Edmondson (seems likely retention) plus the likes of Impey (wide skillset) and both Mezgec & Trentin aren't underpowered and can be called upon if necessary.

Reclaiming Matthews ??? I'd actually be on board with that as he has a wide skill-set and is the brand of classics quick guy that can be largely self reliant and can co-exist with a largely GC focus for GTs. At Sunweb, he is going to run up against the same issue of having to give way or co-exist with GC focus (Tom D). He won't be cheap and the question is .... would he be open to returning ? (even if his parting was on very good terms)

Where I DO take major issue is with your statement of needing a WT level sprinter. A quality classics type fast guy; hell yes and if they're young then all the better but a categorical NO to a straight out bunch kick man reliant on a lead-out train.

What may be interesting in this later part of contract season is whether MS joining the list of GT winning teams may have some impact on the market, especially riders and their managers.
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17 Sep 2018 07:05

Re new blood, is there in anyone from Aqua blue that would fit?
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Re:

17 Sep 2018 07:50

Zinoviev Letter wrote:Really looking forward to watching SY go berserk at the Tour next year. If Dumoulin or Froome (or Thomas) are going to win next year, they are going to have to do it against a guy who is now arguably the world’s number one climber and who has now made it abundantly clear over two GTs in a row that he will attack them day after day after day until either they explode or he does.


I would prefer he do the Giro and fully redeem himself, then go for the Tour the following year.
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17 Sep 2018 08:19

Happy to see Simon wins! The route suits him so good.
I would prefer giro instead of tour next year.
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Re: Re:

17 Sep 2018 12:53

dirkprovin wrote:
yaco wrote:
greenedge wrote:
yaco wrote:A well considered post by GreenEdge - Will add that MS is spending big money on Yates x 2, so it's imperative each target GC in at least one GT per year - Chaves has started riding his bike again in Columbia, but is no certainty to race much in 2019 - The team needs another mountain domestic and has been frustrated by missing out on transfer targets - They also need two more rouleurs and it's such a desperate state that Hayman may ride on in 2019 - You are right there will be pressure on S.Yates to race in Australia in 2019.


Thanks! True, but if that's the case I'd still like to see Adam wholeheartedly support Simon then if he rode the TDF. I think Adam's a great rider, but i've been disappointed by a few of his GT's as of late (last year's Giro had the crash so that was a factor, but at that Vuelta I'd have expected him to be much better. Also this year he cracked at the TDF, though he did tried admirably to stage hunt). I'm just wondering whether his true path is GT's, but I do think he's an amazing rider who has all the tools to go well in GC who can hopefully get back to a top 5 in a GT soon.

In regards to the WT rankings, i feel as if such a schedule would allow for Mitchelton to continue racking up WT points, and if they have a successful race at the TDF there'd be a big points haul that would outweigh targeting two GT's with weaker GC support resulting in both. I also think they'd have the luxury of not having to worry about a lack of points, as evidenced by this year, so can afford to focus on the biggest GT of all.

All these ideal schedules might become moot if Simon does ride the Giro though, but at least he should be considered the favourite in such a race, I can see Kruijswijk riding it, but I think Lopez will go to the TDF and Carapaz might go there too to learn.


It does seem that S.Yates will ride the Giro which will leave the TDF for A.Yates - My view is teams can only have strong squads for two of the GT's, and in fact MS's weakest tour squad was at the Vuelta - I will also add that for some reason the TDF is a bogy race for MS - Anyway MS have some holes in their squad which need to be addressed - They need another quality mountain domestic, need two rouleurs with the retirement of Tuft and Hayman and they need to boost their classics squad - I'll also add that they will have three neo-pros for 2019 and may even have four - Reckon the TDF is the last race where MS will send a strong team - I'll also add they need to target a WT level sprinter - Ackermann and Bennett are out of contract next year BUT their biggest priority is to get Matthews back which was their biggest transfer failing in the last few years.



Can agree with quite a deal of what you are saying but I steer well away from your "prophet of doom" pronouncements over recruitment.


I will agree that the Vuelta line-up didi not read particularly strong on paper but it DID include 2 riders in Haig (most of the race) and AY (later stages) who perforrmed strongly in support of SY. The rest of the team was also sufficiently committed to "doing their bit" and sometimes a little beyond.


As for quality climbing domestique, its hard to know as Chaves' future looks uncertain at this point and does AY have it to be any more than what he has already show over 3 weeks ? Haig will probably get a run over the next 2 years as either the GC man at a GT to which they are not going "all out" OR as B option to a serious campaign. Nieve performed well and one hopes his retention come contract time next year is a key objective. Another clearly established mountain domestique would certainly be nice but, just how many of them are there going around and their pricetags are comensurate with that reality.


Rouleurs ?? If we are talking big engine flatland grunt power; whilst Tuft and Hayman will be missed they aren't necessarily running on empty in this regard. If Durbridge and Bewley are retained, then you also have Hepburn, Joker, Edmondson (seems likely retention) plus the likes of Impey (wide skillset) and both Mezgec & Trentin aren't underpowered and can be called upon if necessary.

Reclaiming Matthews ??? I'd actually be on board with that as he has a wide skill-set and is the brand of classics quick guy that can be largely self reliant and can co-exist with a largely GC focus for GTs. At Sunweb, he is going to run up against the same issue of having to give way or co-exist with GC focus (Tom D). He won't be cheap and the question is .... would he be open to returning ? (even if his parting was on very good terms)

Where I DO take major issue is with your statement of needing a WT level sprinter. A quality classics type fast guy; hell yes and if they're young then all the better but a categorical NO to a straight out bunch kick man reliant on a lead-out train.

What may be interesting in this later part of contract season is whether MS joining the list of GT winning teams may have some impact on the market, especially riders and their managers.


Your last paragraph could be very timely and the result in the Vuelta may attract riders - My version of a WT sprinter is an Ackermann/Bennett type who can get over climbs and be part of a classics squad - Of course if you get Matthews back there is no need for a sprinter.

My reference to the Vuelta squad pertains to the impossibility of having three extremely strong squads for each of the GT's - I thought MS chose a well balanced squad for the Vuelta but ultimately it's tough to have THREE strong squads to support GC ambitions - And most of the success comes down to the strength of your leader.
Last edited by yaco on 17 Sep 2018 12:59, edited 1 time in total.
yaco
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Re:

17 Sep 2018 12:54

sprints n stones wrote:Re new blood, is there in anyone from Aqua blue that would fit?


I am interested in Connor Dunne - Has a big engine and if he can change his mindset he can be a good rouleur.
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