Log in:  

Register

Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

Moderators: Irondan, peloton, Eshnar, Red Rick, King Boonen, Tonton, Pricey_sky

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

16 May 2017 18:45

Dumoulin's comments seem clear and seem to sum things up very well:
"That’s a nice gap to go into the mountains, but in the Vuelta I lost several minutes in one day. It can happen so quickly in the mountains when you have one bad day. The Giro Is far far far from over."
User avatar red_flanders
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,488
Joined: 03 Apr 2009 06:45

16 May 2017 18:48

@coinneach, the first in the line of Sunweb riders did in fact make a hand signal, I've tried to get that message across for 2 days now :D
kingjr
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,244
Joined: 09 Sep 2012 18:53
Location: Germany

Re:

16 May 2017 18:56

rehy90 wrote:Tom is exactly the type of rider who should be winning GTs. He is an all-rounder. Quintana on the other hand, is exactly the type of rider who should be winning only mountain classifications and hard mountains. He is just not the complete package and I hate the trend of the last years when GT profiles favours this type of riders. Lets hope Tom gets this one.

I agree on all points.
User avatar oldcrank
Member
 
Posts: 1,374
Joined: 24 Jul 2009 07:16

16 May 2017 19:00

Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.
"This is the Tour that will determine whether I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
User avatar Valv.Piti
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,584
Joined: 03 Aug 2015 00:00
Location: Dinamarca, Aalborg

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 19:04

Valv.Piti wrote:
rehy90 wrote:Tom is exactly the type of rider who should be winning GTs. He is an all-rounder. Quintana on the other hand, is exactly the type of rider who should be winning only mountain classifications and hard mountains. He is just not the complete package and I hate the trend of the last years when GT profiles favours this type of riders. Lets hope Tom gets this one.

I somewhat agree with the overall sentiments, but pure climbers should absolutely be able to win GT's if they can stay out of trouble on the flat days (which Quintana is very good at) and limiting the losses in the time trials.

You don't have to be amazing all-rounders like Jungels, Dumoulin or Thomas to win a GT.

Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.
User avatar DFA123
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,113
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re:

16 May 2017 19:05

Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

A ttt might be a solution acceptable to the French.
User avatar sir fly
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,756
Joined: 24 Feb 2014 16:04

Re:

16 May 2017 19:08

Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

Isn't Froome a better TTer than Dumoulin at his best though? At least if they are both going for GC, rather than Dumoulin targetting them specifically?

Thomas was 'only' 49 seconds slower today; on TdF form Froome would have won the stage I think.
User avatar DFA123
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,113
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 19:11

DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

Isn't Froome a better TTer than Dumoulin at his best though? At least if they are both going for GC, rather than Dumoulin targetting them specifically?

Thomas was 'only' 49 seconds slower today; on TdF form Froome would have won the stage I think.


I was riding my bike this afternoon and I was thinking the exact same thing. How does this TT performance compare to a fully prepared Froome.

Tom was good today, but I rate his climb from sunday even higher.
Winnen
Junior Member
 
Posts: 132
Joined: 01 Jul 2012 07:46

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 19:11

DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

Isn't Froome a better TTer than Dumoulin at his best though? At least if they are both going for GC, rather than Dumoulin targetting them specifically?

Thomas was 'only' 49 seconds slower today; on TdF form Froome would have won the stage I think.


At the TdF, yes. At the Giro or Vuelta, no.
Cookster15
Member
 
Posts: 846
Joined: 14 May 2011 19:25

Re:

16 May 2017 19:15

Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

30km so that Pinot and Bardet can :p
ice&fire
Member
 
Posts: 737
Joined: 01 Jul 2015 19:30

16 May 2017 19:17

Its hard to judge how much energy more you spend by riding GC as opposed to stagehunting, but Dumoulin was significantly faster than Froome last year. Hypothetically, still think he would have beaten him had they spend equally amount of watts beforehand.
"This is the Tour that will determine whether I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
User avatar Valv.Piti
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,584
Joined: 03 Aug 2015 00:00
Location: Dinamarca, Aalborg

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 19:18

DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Prudhomme will be thinking to himself: 30 kilometres of time trial so Quintana can challenge Froome or 90 km so Dumoulin can.

Isn't Froome a better TTer than Dumoulin at his best though? At least if they are both going for GC, rather than Dumoulin targetting them specifically?

Thomas was 'only' 49 seconds slower today; on TdF form Froome would have won the stage I think.


'13 Froome I agree. Apart from it, I doubt.
User avatar lenric
Member
 
Posts: 845
Joined: 19 May 2014 21:52

Re:

16 May 2017 19:22

Valv.Piti wrote:Its hard to judge how much energy more you spend by riding GC as opposed to stagehunting, but Dumoulin was significantly faster than Froome last year. Hypothetically, still think he would have beaten him had they spend equally amount of watts beforehand.

Perhaps, but I think there would only be a few seconds in it either way. So I won't be supporting the 90km TT Tour de France any time soon :)

A TdF made up of 15+ classic type courses and/or short murito finishes (time bonuses) with just 1 or 2 high mountain stages and maybe 1 TT would get my vote though for a one-off anti-Froome edition!
User avatar DFA123
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,113
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 19:50

DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
rehy90 wrote:Tom is exactly the type of rider who should be winning GTs. He is an all-rounder. Quintana on the other hand, is exactly the type of rider who should be winning only mountain classifications and hard mountains. He is just not the complete package and I hate the trend of the last years when GT profiles favours this type of riders. Lets hope Tom gets this one.

I somewhat agree with the overall sentiments, but pure climbers should absolutely be able to win GT's if they can stay out of trouble on the flat days (which Quintana is very good at) and limiting the losses in the time trials.

You don't have to be amazing all-rounders like Jungels, Dumoulin or Thomas to win a GT.

Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.


Please illustrate the bold sentence with examples. Please.
And please give me one excellent performance of Quintana in Flat GT TTs which can compare to Dumo's third place in BlockHaus.
If you cannot, please rethink and reread what you write out of wishful thinking.
Ataraxus
Member
 
Posts: 535
Joined: 12 Jul 2013 15:28

16 May 2017 19:56

Even if both went for GC, Dumoulin would flatten Froome in anything but a true mountain ITT.

Unfortunately Froome would do likewise in mountain stages to Dumoulin
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 21,017
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 20:41

Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
rehy90 wrote:Tom is exactly the type of rider who should be winning GTs. He is an all-rounder. Quintana on the other hand, is exactly the type of rider who should be winning only mountain classifications and hard mountains. He is just not the complete package and I hate the trend of the last years when GT profiles favours this type of riders. Lets hope Tom gets this one.

I somewhat agree with the overall sentiments, but pure climbers should absolutely be able to win GT's if they can stay out of trouble on the flat days (which Quintana is very good at) and limiting the losses in the time trials.

You don't have to be amazing all-rounders like Jungels, Dumoulin or Thomas to win a GT.

Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.


Please illustrate the bold sentence with examples. Please.
And please give me one excellent performance of Quintana in Flat GT TTs which can compare to Dumo's third place in BlockHaus.
If you cannot, please rethink and reread what you write out of wishful thinking.

Just look at their respective results. In case that is too challenging, I'll do the work for you. I listed Quintana's TT results while aiming for the GC.

Dumoulin's climbing results in high mountain stages while aiming for the GC of a Grand Tour are: 9th, 15th, 12th, 16th, 35th, 6th and 3rd. Very similar to Quintana's TT results. Dumoulin is no more of an all rounder than Quintana. One is much better at climbing, but can hold their own in TTs. One is much better at TTs, but can hold their own (possibly) in the high mountains. Dumoulin gained several minutes in the TT today, but he lost several minutes in the Vuelta in the mountains.

For an equivalent to Dumoulin on Blockhaus, how about Quintana in the 2015 Vuelta. 6th overall ahead of Thomas, LLS, Oliveira and several other noted time triallists.
User avatar DFA123
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,113
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re:

16 May 2017 21:36

kingjr wrote:@coinneach, the first in the line of Sunweb riders did in fact make a hand signal, I've tried to get that message across for 2 days now :D

Thanks, I must have been reading different forums!
I've looked at it again, and see that sw riders 1&2 both swerve to the right, but 3&4 go left, if anything.
Not great teamwork indeed.
Was that not what undid Tom in the Vuelta in 15?
coinneach
Member
 
Posts: 750
Joined: 22 Jul 2011 21:26

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 21:47

DFA123 wrote:
Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
rehy90 wrote:Tom is exactly the type of rider who should be winning GTs. He is an all-rounder. Quintana on the other hand, is exactly the type of rider who should be winning only mountain classifications and hard mountains. He is just not the complete package and I hate the trend of the last years when GT profiles favours this type of riders. Lets hope Tom gets this one.

I somewhat agree with the overall sentiments, but pure climbers should absolutely be able to win GT's if they can stay out of trouble on the flat days (which Quintana is very good at) and limiting the losses in the time trials.

You don't have to be amazing all-rounders like Jungels, Dumoulin or Thomas to win a GT.

Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.


Please illustrate the bold sentence with examples. Please.
And please give me one excellent performance of Quintana in Flat GT TTs which can compare to Dumo's third place in BlockHaus.
If you cannot, please rethink and reread what you write out of wishful thinking.

Just look at their respective results. In case that is too challenging, I'll do the work for you. I listed Quintana's TT results while aiming for the GC.

Dumoulin's climbing results in high mountain stages while aiming for the GC of a Grand Tour are: 9th, 15th, 12th, 16th, 35th, 6th and 3rd. Very similar to Quintana's TT results. Dumoulin is no more of an all rounder than Quintana. One is much better at climbing, but can hold their own in TTs. One is much better at TTs, but can hold their own (possibly) in the high mountains. Dumoulin gained several minutes in the TT today, but he lost several minutes in the Vuelta in the mountains.

For an equivalent to Dumoulin on Blockhaus, how about Quintana in the 2015 Vuelta. 6th overall ahead of Thomas, LLS, Oliveira and several other noted time triallists.


If you want to talk numbers let's do them properly:

Tom D in GC aspiring Grand Tours:

Giro 2017 Blockhaus - 3
Vuelta 2015 Andorra - 9 (7 excluding break; and better than Nairo)
Vuelta 2015 stage 14 - 15 (9 excluding break)
Vuelta 2015 stage 15 - 12
Vuelta 2015 stage 16 - 16 (8 excluding break)
the disastrous.stage 20 - 35 (25 excluding break)

NQ in GC aspiring Grand Tours :

Giro 2017 - 23
Vuelta 2016 - 11
Tour 2016 - 20
Vuelta 2015 - 6
Tour 2015 - 57
Disastrous Vuelta 2014 - 82
Giro 2014 - 13
Tour 2013 - 54

Do I need to average the numbers ? ;)

And No. Nairo's 6th place in Burgos ITT is not the same with third in Blockhaus.
Firstly because 3< 6 ;) and secondly because one is beating Nibali, Mollema, Zakarin, Krujswijk, Pozzovivo up one of the steepest climbs in the Giro and the other is beating G LLS and Oliveira who didn't have any GC aspirations whatsoever.

And by the way, If I were you, I would have mentioned names other than G. and Lulu.
They had TT intentions today and you saw what happened.
Ataraxus
Member
 
Posts: 535
Joined: 12 Jul 2013 15:28

Re: Re:

16 May 2017 22:01

Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.


Please illustrate the bold sentence with examples. Please.
And please give me one excellent performance of Quintana in Flat GT TTs which can compare to Dumo's third place in BlockHaus.
If you cannot, please rethink and reread what you write out of wishful thinking.

Just look at their respective results. In case that is too challenging, I'll do the work for you. I listed Quintana's TT results while aiming for the GC.

Dumoulin's climbing results in high mountain stages while aiming for the GC of a Grand Tour are: 9th, 15th, 12th, 16th, 35th, 6th and 3rd. Very similar to Quintana's TT results. Dumoulin is no more of an all rounder than Quintana. One is much better at climbing, but can hold their own in TTs. One is much better at TTs, but can hold their own (possibly) in the high mountains. Dumoulin gained several minutes in the TT today, but he lost several minutes in the Vuelta in the mountains.

For an equivalent to Dumoulin on Blockhaus, how about Quintana in the 2015 Vuelta. 6th overall ahead of Thomas, LLS, Oliveira and several other noted time triallists.


If you want to talk numbers let's do them properly:

Tom D in GC aspiring Grand Tours:

Giro 2017 Blockhaus - 3
Vuelta 2015 Andorra - 9 (7 excluding break better than Nairo)
Vuelta 2015 stage 14 - 15 (9 excluding break)
.. stage 15 - 12
...stage 16 - 16 (8 excluding break)
the disastrous.stage 20 - 35 (25 excluding break)

NQ in GC aspiring Grand Tours :

Giro 2017 - 23
Vuelta 2016 - 11
Tour 2016 - 20
Vuelta 2015 - 6
Tour 2015 - 57
Disastrous Vuelta 2014 - 82
Giro 2014 - 13
Tour 2013 - 54

Do I need to average the numbers ? ;)

And No. Nairo's 6th place in Burgos ITT is not the same with third in Blockhaus.
Firstly because 3< 6 ;) and secondly because one is beating Nibali, Mollema, Zakarin, Krujswijk, Pozzovivo up one of the steepest climbs in the Giro and the other is beating G LLS and Oliveira who didn't have any GC aspirations whatsoever.

Well obviously you can't compre the results exactly as TTs and MTFs have completely different dynamics given that one is a lot more controlled envirnoment than the other. I could easily argue for example that Dumoulin only beat Nibali because he cracked following Quintana, and that he only beat Yates, Landa and Thomas because they crashed, Kruijswijk because he's rubbish early in a GT etc... The quality of names finished ahead of is just an indication, as is the position - not a definitive study.

The general point, however, is clear to me. Quintana and Dumoulin are both all rounders with one very strong discipline, and one where they are a fair bit below the best in the sport, but can still put in very respectable performances. The main difference I guess is that Quintana's much greater sample size obviously makes his status as an all-rounder more secure and reliable. Dumoulin still has to prove his climbing credentials in the third week of this race beforehe can be securely labelled as a serious GC contender.

And I notice you've included a prologue, a TT where Quintana crashed and another one when he was 23 years old and was certainly not an all-rounder at the time. I'm not sure what purpose it serves to include such obvious outliers. That seems a bit disingenuous and childish, rather than wanting to genuinely debate the topic.
User avatar DFA123
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,113
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

16 May 2017 23:30

I know where to stop by forum rules, but I don't know where to start...

The Froome talk and historical data are absurd IMO: it's a new Dumoulin for starters. Even at the Vuelta, he didn't put on a MTF performance like he did at the Blockhaus, with real attacks beginning 7 km out and no less than Quintana going at it. Losing 24 seconds, pocket change...

And even if anyone disagrees with that, the bottom line is where we are tonight. One ITT left, and yes freshness matters in a final ITT. Skills matter too. Say a 30-second bonus (I'd say a minute actually). That leaves Quintana and whoever wants to beat TD with the chilling prospect of gaining over 3 minutes, maybe four, in the days ahead.

Astana did a great job at the Vuelta. Only Movistar can hit as hard as a team. It's up to Quintana to unleash the dogs and that's not going to be easy. Nibali, Pinot, to a lesser extend Mollema will try to take advantage of opportunities. Only a strong team performance from Movistar can stop Dumoulin. Counting on him to crack week-3 is a dangerous proposition.

On the minus side for Dumoulin: no team. So if Nibali or Pinot attack, Movistar may sit, let him chase, counter.

Looking good for Major Tom. I like his chances.
"Finally, the last thing I'll say to the people who don't believe in cycling, the cynics and the skeptics: I'm sorry for you. I'm sorry that you can't dream big. I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles."
User avatar Tonton
Moderator
 
Posts: 2,455
Joined: 17 May 2013 18:59

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dukerojo, Eyeballs Out, Frankschleck, GenericBoonenFan, Geraint Too Fast, Google Adsense [Bot], Hugo Koblet, manolo57, MrTea1976, Oliver, rghysens, Ricco', Smachinho_, TommyGun, wirral and 75 guests

Back to top