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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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16 May 2017 23:47

Imo, Dumoulin should only be looking at what Quintana does.
User avatar lenric
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Re: Re:

16 May 2017 23:56

Jspear wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:https://twitter.com/Eurosport_UK/status/864505925456904192

Elbowed the miss


Lol ouch. I need to go find the video!


http://video.gazzetta.it/dumoulin-che-combini-gomitata-girine/e3aebd76-3a6b-11e7-9201-c3c572853ad1?intcmp=VideoBar&vclk=VideoBar|dumoulin-che-combini-gomitata-girine

The misses had a good laugh at it :D
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17 May 2017 00:18

Tommy D did what he had to do today. Gives himself a real chance for his first GT and I agree that Sunday was even more impressive that today. That 3rd week is HARD though. I really don't know which way it'll go right now, but my gut feeling is that Quintana is still the favorite.
Son of Amsterhammer
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 00:51

dfromdub wrote:
Jspear wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:https://twitter.com/Eurosport_UK/status/864505925456904192

Elbowed the miss


Lol ouch. I need to go find the video!


http://video.gazzetta.it/dumoulin-che-combini-gomitata-girine/e3aebd76-3a6b-11e7-9201-c3c572853ad1?intcmp=VideoBar&vclk=VideoBar|dumoulin-che-combini-gomitata-girine

The misses had a good laugh at it :D


Lol thanks!
Glad no one was actually hurt.
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User avatar Jspear
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17 May 2017 01:11

I knew he could do this! I'm not surprised... expected a great Giro from him. He's going to need a lot of mental strength in the final week. Might be isolated and challenged greatly day after day by Movistar, Quintana, and others. I think he can do it but it will be a huge challenge.
spiritualride
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17 May 2017 02:44

Might it be best to have someone from the break to take the jersey so his team doesn't have to worry about it?
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Re:

17 May 2017 03:32

[quote="[url=http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2111277#p2111277]SHAD0W93[/url]"]Might it be best to have someone from the break to take the jersey so his team doesn't have to worry about it?[/quote]
The other teams aren't likely to let someone who would be close enough in the GC to be able take the maglia rosa go.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 May 2017 05:14

Tonton wrote:I know where to stop by forum rules, but I don't know where to start...

The Froome talk and historical data are absurd IMO: it's a new Dumoulin for starters. Even at the Vuelta, he didn't put on a MTF performance like he did at the Blockhaus, with real attacks beginning 7 km out and no less than Quintana going at it. Losing 24 seconds, pocket change...

And even if anyone disagrees with that, the bottom line is where we are tonight. One ITT left, and yes freshness matters in a final ITT. Skills matter too. Say a 30-second bonus (I'd say a minute actually). That leaves Quintana and whoever wants to beat TD with the chilling prospect of gaining over 3 minutes, maybe four, in the days ahead.

Astana did a great job at the Vuelta. Only Movistar can hit as hard as a team. It's up to Quintana to unleash the dogs and that's not going to be easy. Nibali, Pinot, to a lesser extend Mollema will try to take advantage of opportunities. Only a strong team performance from Movistar can stop Dumoulin. Counting on him to crack week-3 is a dangerous proposition.

On the minus side for Dumoulin: no team. So if Nibali or Pinot attack, Movistar may sit, let him chase, counter.

Looking good for Major Tom. I like his chances.

So much this. I really doubt Dumoulin will bonk like 2015 again. To get dropped by Quintana or a 2/3 better climbers on a penultimate climb is another matter, and not unreasonable at all.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 06:01

DFA123 wrote:
Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:Exactly this. GTs should absolutely be won by all rounders, but Quintana is an all rounder. His results in GT time trials since 2014 are (excluding prologue): 13th, 1st, 6th, 20th, 10th, 11th and today's result - 23rd. If you don't consider that as good enough for an all rounder, then you're basically excluding anyone under 60kg from ever winning a GT, because you can't do much better than that at his weight. Of course he's better at climbing, but the reason he can win GTs (and riders like Purito can't), is because he holds his own against the clock.

Quintana's TT record is as good as, if not better than Dumoulin's climbing record in GTs.


Please illustrate the bold sentence with examples. Please.
And please give me one excellent performance of Quintana in Flat GT TTs which can compare to Dumo's third place in BlockHaus.
If you cannot, please rethink and reread what you write out of wishful thinking.

Just look at their respective results. In case that is too challenging, I'll do the work for you. I listed Quintana's TT results while aiming for the GC.

Dumoulin's climbing results in high mountain stages while aiming for the GC of a Grand Tour are: 9th, 15th, 12th, 16th, 35th, 6th and 3rd. Very similar to Quintana's TT results. Dumoulin is no more of an all rounder than Quintana. One is much better at climbing, but can hold their own in TTs. One is much better at TTs, but can hold their own (possibly) in the high mountains. Dumoulin gained several minutes in the TT today, but he lost several minutes in the Vuelta in the mountains.

For an equivalent to Dumoulin on Blockhaus, how about Quintana in the 2015 Vuelta. 6th overall ahead of Thomas, LLS, Oliveira and several other noted time triallists.


If you want to talk numbers let's do them properly:

Tom D in GC aspiring Grand Tours:

Giro 2017 Blockhaus - 3
Vuelta 2015 Andorra - 9 (7 excluding break better than Nairo)
Vuelta 2015 stage 14 - 15 (9 excluding break)
.. stage 15 - 12
...stage 16 - 16 (8 excluding break)
the disastrous.stage 20 - 35 (25 excluding break)

NQ in GC aspiring Grand Tours :

Giro 2017 - 23
Vuelta 2016 - 11
Tour 2016 - 20
Vuelta 2015 - 6
Tour 2015 - 57
Disastrous Vuelta 2014 - 82
Giro 2014 - 13
Tour 2013 - 54

Do I need to average the numbers ? ;)

And No. Nairo's 6th place in Burgos ITT is not the same with third in Blockhaus.
Firstly because 3< 6 ;) and secondly because one is beating Nibali, Mollema, Zakarin, Krujswijk, Pozzovivo up one of the steepest climbs in the Giro and the other is beating G LLS and Oliveira who didn't have any GC aspirations whatsoever.

Well obviously you can't compre the results exactly as TTs and MTFs have completely different dynamics given that one is a lot more controlled envirnoment than the other. I could easily argue for example that Dumoulin only beat Nibali because he cracked following Quintana, and that he only beat Yates, Landa and Thomas because they crashed, Kruijswijk because he's rubbish early in a GT etc... The quality of names finished ahead of is just an indication, as is the position - not a definitive study.

The general point, however, is clear to me. Quintana and Dumoulin are both all rounders with one very strong discipline, and one where they are a fair bit below the best in the sport, but can still put in very respectable performances. The main difference I guess is that Quintana's much greater sample size obviously makes his status as an all-rounder more secure and reliable. Dumoulin still has to prove his climbing credentials in the third week of this race beforehe can be securely labelled as a serious GC contender.

And I notice you've included a prologue, a TT where Quintana crashed and another one when he was 23 years old and was certainly not an all-rounder at the time. I'm not sure what purpose it serves to include such obvious outliers. That seems a bit disingenuous and childish, rather than wanting to genuinely debate the topic.


The origin of the debate roots in the all roundedness of Quintana being as good as Tom D. I don't have a problem with you calling Quintana an all rounder. I would have been much more reserved considering that he has limitations in crosswinds, TTs, cobbles and descents relative to his big opponents at the moment (which are tom d. Froome, nibali and AC.) but anyway, all roundedness is a relative concept. My problem was when you are trying to compare Tom D all roundedness with NQ. And moreover when you are trying to back it up with sentences like the bolded.

And BTW you cannot say "you can't compare it like this" without posing an alternative comparison means. And you have to provide a comparison means....to back up your bold statement in the first place. ;)
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17 May 2017 06:10

Quintana is not an all rounder, he's about as specialized as it gets. And that's fine.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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Re: Re:

17 May 2017 09:34

Ataraxus wrote:
DFA123 wrote:Well obviously you can't compre the results exactly as TTs and MTFs have completely different dynamics given that one is a lot more controlled envirnoment than the other. I could easily argue for example that Dumoulin only beat Nibali because he cracked following Quintana, and that he only beat Yates, Landa and Thomas because they crashed, Kruijswijk because he's rubbish early in a GT etc... The quality of names finished ahead of is just an indication, as is the position - not a definitive study.

The general point, however, is clear to me. Quintana and Dumoulin are both all rounders with one very strong discipline, and one where they are a fair bit below the best in the sport, but can still put in very respectable performances. The main difference I guess is that Quintana's much greater sample size obviously makes his status as an all-rounder more secure and reliable. Dumoulin still has to prove his climbing credentials in the third week of this race beforehe can be securely labelled as a serious GC contender.

And I notice you've included a prologue, a TT where Quintana crashed and another one when he was 23 years old and was certainly not an all-rounder at the time. I'm not sure what purpose it serves to include such obvious outliers. That seems a bit disingenuous and childish, rather than wanting to genuinely debate the topic.


The origin of the debate roots in the all roundedness of Quintana being as good as Tom D. I don't have a problem with you calling Quintana an all rounder. I would have been much more reserved considering that he has limitations in crosswinds, TTs, cobbles and descents relative to his big opponents at the moment (which are tom d. Froome, nibali and AC.) but anyway, all roundedness is a relative concept. My problem was when you are trying to compare Tom D all roundedness with NQ. And moreover when you are trying to back it up with sentences like the bolded.

And BTW you cannot say "you can't compare it like this" without posing an alternative comparison means. And you have to provide a comparison means....to back up your bold statement in the first place. ;)

This I largely agree with. Certainly Quintana is not as good an all-rounder as a Froome or Nibali. But my issue is that Dumoulin hasn't done enough in the mountains yet to be put in that company. At the moment, he is an incredible time triallist who limits losses in the mountains, with the occasional horrible day thrown in. His result on the Blockhaus may suggest he's improved, or may just be because he was a lot fresher and he won't be able to repeat it into the third week. Quintana, on the other hand, has been delivering solid TTs for quite a while now.


Red Rick wrote:Quintana is not an all rounder, he's about as specialized as it gets. And that's fine.


He's only not an all-rounder if the bar for calling someone an all-rounder is set really high. In which case it only applies to the likes of Armstrong, Froome, Valverde and Nibali. In fact, only the last two of those excel at all areas of bike riding. All other riders have weaknesses and areas where they are quite poor (e.g. Contador's bike handling).

Saying he is as specialized as it gets is absolute nonsense. Someone capable of regularly winning mountain stages, winning from 50km+ breakaways and getting top 10s and top 20s in TTs in Grand Tours, is clearly not as specialized as it gets. Unsurprisingly, your opinion is completely without any supporting evidence.
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17 May 2017 09:57

You actually called his post disingenuous? :lol:

That's rich after you included a **** MTT as an example of Quintana's TT-ability. And it's quite evident that TTs should be included from all the GTs he contended, so that includes '13, but likewise one should note if there is a trend (like there is for Big Tom's climbing).
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Re:

17 May 2017 10:15

lenric wrote:Imo, Dumoulin should only be looking at what Quintana does.


Exactly. Play some poker, dare to gamble. When left all alone, do exactly the opposite of what they are wanting you to do.

@DFA123 that discussion is becoming a bit freaky. An allrounder is someone who in all areas of GT racing (flat roads, ITT, MTF's, hills, etcetera) can do damage to his rivals or at minimum isn't necessarily vulnerable.
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Re:

17 May 2017 11:15

Red Rick wrote:Quintana is not an all rounder, he's about as specialized as it gets. And that's fine.


Yep, agreed. He is specialized. I feel without AC last year he would not have won the Vuelta. I think right now its Dumoulin's race to lose.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 May 2017 11:35

I really like Tom but he never has a chance to win the Giro. He has no team whiĺe Quintana has a superb team. Astana has shown how to kill Tom on a relatively easy climb and Moviestar is going to do the same during the last week of racing.

Tom is not strong enough to hold the wheel of Quintana if Quintana goes all in on a proper climb. Without a team he has no chance to pull Quintana back. Moviestar is really strong and capable of creating the opportunities that will cost Dumoulin the victory. It's a bit sad that Dumoulin is in pink now. If he wasn't in pink right now, he would have a better chance to win overall.
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17 May 2017 11:37

Just referring to Blockhaus won't do it. Dumoulin already showed in Abu Dhabi and Tirreno that he improved a lot in the mountains.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 May 2017 11:47

Monstre du Cyclisme wrote:I really like Tom but he never has a chance to win the Giro. He has no team whiĺe Quintana has a superb team. Astana has shown how to kill Tom on a relatively easy climb and Moviestar is going to do the same during the last week of racing.

Tom is not strong enough to hold the wheel of Quintana if Quintana goes all in on a proper climb. Without a team he has no chance to pull Quintana back. Moviestar is really strong and capable of creating the opportunities that will cost Dumoulin the victory. It's a bit sad that Dumoulin is in pink now. If he wasn't in pink right now, he would have a better chance to win overall.


TD should join forces with Sky as leaders are more same type of riders than Quintana. Sky would benefit from it beating the hell out from Quintana towards TdF.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 May 2017 12:09

A Dutch combine should be enough, but unfortunately we Dutch are always so sickeningly goody-goody.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 May 2017 12:27

Pennino wrote:A Dutch combine should be enough, but unfortunately we Dutch are always so sickeningly goody-goody.


I know and it can be frustating, but if everyone acted goody goody it would be a better world :razz:
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17 May 2017 12:29

Imagine that, double Stelvio stage. Quintana goes and rides towards earlier Movistar riders.

In the background Dumoulin gets help from 3rd week Kruijswijk and from Mollema trying to stay on the podium. End result catches Quintana on the final climb and nullifies the attack. Outrage on CN forum as non-teammates help Dumoulin.
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