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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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Re:

08 May 2018 17:25

Scarponi wrote:Why isn't Dumo compared to Evans? While Evans probably wasn't as dominant time trialist, he was almost always too 3 to 5 and won TT at the TDF once or twice and came second a lot. Also a grinder in the mountains and always top 3 climbers in the race like dumo without a team. Wiggins to me was 100 times worse a rider than Evans

You just gave yourself the answer. Dumoulin is currently arguably the best TT'er in the world, which is why the TT is seen as Dumoulin's most important strength.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

08 May 2018 18:11

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Dumoulin also said he could have had a much better result if he took some more risk.
Says he was a coward, when they stopped riding in front he could've gone to the front (at 400/600m), but then he chose to take it easy, had to break for others and had to restart the sprint from very slow speed.

edit: even says he wanted to sprint for the win. He acknowledges Wellens would probably be way too hard to beat, but he believed he could have at least contested the top places if he went out of the wind at 500m instead of waiting a bit longer and getting swamped

Yeah it's very easy to see in the replay that he gets boxed in and at one point even has to stop pedalling.

Meanwhile, I don't think Dumoulin is really that comparable to previous riders. Roglic on the other hand reminds me a lot of Evans.
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08 May 2018 23:31

There’s a basic truth to grouping Dumoulin with Wiggins. They are the only recent guys to win GTs whose primary strength is unquestionably their world beating TT. More broadly they both belong in a category of GC riders who could expect to take more time on most rivals in TTs than on climbs and who would always prefer a steady climbing pace that includes people like Evans and Menchov and extends back to Indurain. This is the same category Dennis aspires to be counted in. That said, that basic truth doesn’t tell anything close to the whole story. Dumoulin is not a similar rider to Wiggins in most ways. Dumoulin is a much more flexible and multi faceted rider.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

08 May 2018 23:34

Red Rick wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Dumoulin also said he could have had a much better result if he took some more risk.
Says he was a coward, when they stopped riding in front he could've gone to the front (at 400/600m), but then he chose to take it easy, had to break for others and had to restart the sprint from very slow speed.

edit: even says he wanted to sprint for the win. He acknowledges Wellens would probably be way too hard to beat, but he believed he could have at least contested the top places if he went out of the wind at 500m instead of waiting a bit longer and getting swamped

Yeah it's very easy to see in the replay that he gets boxed in and at one point even has to stop pedalling.

Meanwhile, I don't think Dumoulin is really that comparable to previous riders. Roglic on the other hand reminds me a lot of Evans.


Yes Roglic is a similar build. Evans TT was often up and down, more so than Dumoulin and Roglic. Evans riding against peak Andy and Contador was the better climber but like Dumoulin was never a pure climber.
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Re: Re:

09 May 2018 07:33

EroicaStradeBianche wrote:When was Wiggins 'prime? 2012 and nothing else

He won Dauphine and was third in the Vuelta in 2011.

Besides, how is the length of one rider's prime relevant in this discussion? Wiggins was a dominant rider when at his best. He was not just a dominant TTer. He was surely among the top2 climbers in the Tour he won and among the top4-5 climbers in the 2011 Vuelta.

Dumoulin is a much more versatile rider (although he has yet to fully prove it, for example with results in Classics), but Wiggins wasn't a one trick pony as some are trying to argue here.
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09 May 2018 07:50

Dumoulin was 4th in Clasica San Sebastian, 2nd in Quebec, 6th in Montreal and top 20 in Lombardy and Liege. Never prepared for the Ardennes specificially though. But I think he's proven something already.
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Re:

09 May 2018 10:17

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Dumoulin was 4th in Clasica San Sebastian, 2nd in Quebec, 6th in Montreal and top 20 in Lombardy and Liege. Never prepared for the Ardennes specificially though. But I think he's proven something already.


Proven he can break into the top 10 or 20. Some riders do that for a long time without winning one. Win a couple and then he takes a real jump on the results sheet and overall ability. Nibali managed it later in his career of course. Chaves has already won a monument as has Martin and Poels. Wiggins had a top 10 at Roubaix.
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09 May 2018 10:21

dude was 20m away from winning Quebec. I mean cmon

edit: forgot 5th at Strade Bianchi btw
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12 May 2018 18:27

He said again (but with a smiler) he had a lesser day, that's like the 3rd or 4th day in a row and everytime after an uphill finish.
I wonder if he's not slightly underraced and missing the sharp end explosivitiy for the mt stages.
I think he'll be better in week 3 this time and less good in this and next week compared to last year.
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Re:

12 May 2018 18:42

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:He said again (but with a smiler) he had a lesser day, that's like the 3rd or 4th day in a row and everytime after an uphill finish.
I wonder if he's not slightly underraced and missing the sharp end explosivitiy for the mt stages.
I think he'll be better in week 3 this time and less good in this and next week compared to last year.


This had better not be the case. If he isn't good next weekend, on Zoncolan he may well lose minutes from many people. Tomorrow might give a better hint anout his shape.
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Re:

12 May 2018 18:47

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:He said again (but with a smiler) he had a lesser day, that's like the 3rd or 4th day in a row and everytime after an uphill finish.
I wonder if he's not slightly underraced and missing the sharp end explosivitiy for the mt stages.
I think he'll be better in week 3 this time and less good in this and next week compared to last year.

He also said that he was still well into the first group, so that it's probably not that bad.

But yeah, needs better tomorrow, but it's the last mountain stage before the Zoncolan on stage 14, so inbetween then there's some time.

I think that tomorrow will be mostly about the final 3km or so, so gaps aren't gonna be huge, unless the race explodes with GC riders in breakaways and all that fancy junk which I don't really see happening. First hour will be chaos tomorrow I think.

And I don't see how he loses minutes on the Zoncolan. He was fine enough on the Etna, Dumoulin totally does not have a history of blowing up spectacularly when he drops early on a final climb. Quite the opposite actually.
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12 May 2018 18:59

Yeah I know, and it's too early to tell anything right now. Tomorrow will just be another test. I think after Zoncolan you can tell for sure where he stands and if he stands a chance at all

I guess you can call it a luxury when you are not convincing at all but still 2nd in GC.
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Re:

12 May 2018 19:03

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Yeah I know, and it's too early to tell anything right now. Tomorrow will just be another test. I think after Zoncolan you can tell for sure where he stands and if he stands a chance at all

I guess you can call it a luxury when you are not convincing at all but still 2nd in GC.

....
....
....
....
.... Contador was 2nd in the Tour of 2013 until after the final mountain stage

Anyway, his mood seemed okay.
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13 May 2018 16:33

He is still the favourite. By some distance.
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13 May 2018 20:39

After today, I think he's fine. Maybe 0,5% less good uphill than last year, but still good enough.

I cannot follow people who says he looks bad just because he doesn't follow accelerations. He didn't do that last year either. But this year there has only been Purito finishes of 2km explosions. It's logical he drops some seconds there.

Zoncolan will be the real test
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13 May 2018 21:45

Exactly. Dumoulin shines when everyone is dead, not when 10 climbers still have gas in the tank.

Can't say I'm super impressed by Oomen he was isolated quite early today again
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Re:

13 May 2018 22:04

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:After today, I think he's fine. Maybe 0,5% less good uphill than last year, but still good enough.

I cannot follow people who says he looks bad just because he doesn't follow accelerations. He didn't do that last year either. But this year there has only been Purito finishes of 2km explosions. It's logical he drops some seconds there.

Zoncolan will be the real test


All things considered I think it was a reasonable stage for Dumoulin when other better climbers dropped much worse. Yates is the most consistent at the moment but can he keep it going for three weeks and do a good TT ? Chaves would have to have a good lead going into the TT and I doubt that will happen. There is not much of a gap between the climbers at the moment but the gaps will start to open more of course. Yates is still Michelton's best chance of winning unless Chaves can reach another level with his climbing.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 03:46

Tom Dumoulin is doing just fine, thank you very much. He made it through the week-end with minimal losses, while his only good ITT specialist foe lost a lot. Only he put Froome pretty much away. For the others, Froome is still a threat. Is he? We don't know. But truth be told, we have barely scratched the surface of what this course has to offer. We will be having different thoughts at this time next week. Then the ITT. and 3 days for hell to break loose. That is if defensive riding doesn't prevail, as it often does. We don't know anything.

But I can safely assume that had Dumoulin been shown this GC picture after stage 9 beforehand, he would have felt pretty good.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 04:18

Tonton wrote:Tom Dumoulin is doing just fine, thank you very much. He made it through the week-end with minimal losses, while his only good ITT specialist foe lost a lot. Only he put Froome pretty much away. For the others, Froome is still a threat. Is he? We don't know. But truth be told, we have barely scratched the surface of what this course has to offer. We will be having different thoughts at this time next week. Then the ITT. and 3 days for hell to break loose. That is if defensive riding doesn't prevail, as it often does. We don't know anything.

But I can safely assume that had Dumoulin been shown this GC picture after stage 9 beforehand, he would have felt pretty good.


I agree with this.

Next weekend will tell us a lot about his chances. If he get dropped I am pretty sure he not gonna be the only one, unless he will have a complete nightmare on Zoncolan compared to the others. Which I don’t think he will have. He will take his tempo and wont follow the accelerations. Just about if that will be good enough or if he will crack.

Then has ITT to take time back and/or gain time. Last 3 days will just be what you got left tbh. Will be anyones game at that point.

I think he has a very good chance still to win or at least getting a podium.
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Re:

14 May 2018 08:16

Climber123 wrote:He is still the favourite. By some distance.


But the distance is decreasing. I don't think he will win, he was better last year.
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