Log in:  

Register

Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick, Pricey_sky

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 16:21

EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.

Pozzovivo and Pinot were there last year and they were destroyed by Dumoulin several times. This year they even seem a little bit better than him uphill. The reality is that maybe Dumo was slightly better last year but the route was fantastic for him. The climbs were very suited to him. Think of the Piancavallo stage with a Finestre, how much time would have lost tommy there?
Consider also that last year there were 70km of TT.
Or the last stage with the easiest side of Grappa (were Dum was losing a little bit the wheels already) and than the Foza were there was the final attack: 10 km at regular 6-7%. Perfect for Dumoulin to pace uphill. The route this year will make him suffer a little bit more.

However I still think he's the main favorite. He's not losing much. he'll gain massively in the TT and he won't crack. He's a proven champion.

But it'll be more difficult also because this year there are some serious super-teams (Bahrain and Movistar were jokes last year) and Sunweb doesn't seem too strong.

This
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,172
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 16:32

EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.


Nonsense, Quintana was getting reeled in and spat out by Reichenbach and dropped by Pozzovivo on climbs in the last week. He was miles from top form, at least after his crash. Compare that to him at the 2016 Vuelta and it is night and day. Same goes for Nibali, there is no comparison between last week of 2016 Giro and 2017.
User avatar DFA123
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,095
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

Re:

14 May 2018 16:56

SafeBet wrote:Made a little comparison wtih last year after the first week.

2017
Quintana (perceived as the rider to beat after his dominant Blockhaus win)
Pinot 24"
Dumoulin 24"
Mollema 41"
Nibali 1'00"
Pozzovivo 1'18"
Kangert 2'02"
Zakarin 2'14"
Reichenbach 2'28"
Formolo 2'35"

2018
Yates
Chaves 32"
Dumoulin 38"
Pinot 45"
Pozzovivo 57"
Carapaz 1'20"
Bennett 1'33"
Dennis 2'05"
Bilbao 2'05"
Woods 2'25"

Gaps are really similar in the top10.
Dumoulin sits in a slightly worse position. Last year he was 24" from the jersey, now he's 38" behind and there has alreay been a 10km TT. Let's say he gains 2' on Yates in the ITT, he'll have a 1'20" gap. Which means a bad day like Piancavallo 2017 puts Yates back in rosa or very close.
I don't know if Yates will keep this shape for three weeks but if he does, Dumoulin will have to climb better than last year to win the Giro. I think he can do it, but he's more likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than 1st.

If I may, 2017:
Image
Goodbye, Tommeke; thank you for all you have given us!
User avatar Netserk
Veteran
 
Posts: 19,999
Joined: 30 Apr 2011 13:10
Location: Denmark

Re: Re:

14 May 2018 16:59

Netserk wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Made a little comparison wtih last year after the first week.

2017
Quintana (perceived as the rider to beat after his dominant Blockhaus win)
Pinot 24"
Dumoulin 24"
Mollema 41"
Nibali 1'00"
Pozzovivo 1'18"
Kangert 2'02"
Zakarin 2'14"
Reichenbach 2'28"
Formolo 2'35"

2018
Yates
Chaves 32"
Dumoulin 38"
Pinot 45"
Pozzovivo 57"
Carapaz 1'20"
Bennett 1'33"
Dennis 2'05"
Bilbao 2'05"
Woods 2'25"

Gaps are really similar in the top10.
Dumoulin sits in a slightly worse position. Last year he was 24" from the jersey, now he's 38" behind and there has alreay been a 10km TT. Let's say he gains 2' on Yates in the ITT, he'll have a 1'20" gap. Which means a bad day like Piancavallo 2017 puts Yates back in rosa or very close.
I don't know if Yates will keep this shape for three weeks but if he does, Dumoulin will have to climb better than last year to win the Giro. I think he can do it, but he's more likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than 1st.

If I may, 2017:
Image

I wrote the stage top10 and not the GC. Dumb me :o
User avatar SafeBet
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,983
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 13:38
Location: Milano, Italy

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 17:26

DFA123 wrote:
EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.


Nonsense, Quintana was getting reeled in and spat out by Reichenbach and dropped by Pozzovivo on climbs in the last week. He was miles from top form, at least after his crash. Compare that to him at the 2016 Vuelta and it is night and day. Same goes for Nibali, there is no comparison between last week of 2016 Giro and 2017.


That was the last week, but Blockhaus and Oropa were both all out efforts by Quintana at the time he was still in relatively good form and showed a level that was above anything shown thus far in this years race. That last part obviously applies to Dumoulin too.

Having said that, my impression is that the main difference with last year lies in the way in which the MTF stages have been ridden. When last year Etna was effectively neutralised by the wind, Blockhaus and Oropa featured all-in attacks from several km-s out, whereas this year all MTF have been waiting games decided by punchy attacks from inside the last couple of kilometres.

This in turn influences and distorts the impression we have about Dumoulin (and many others as well). On Blockhaus last year he was initially dropped by many, but caught up everybody par Quintana and dropped all of those caught except Pinot. Losing handful of seconds in last kilometer sprint to the line in not showing much about Dumoulins true form.

Also this type of racing may well show punchy climbers like Yates to be stronger than they really might be.For this reason I don't think we can have any reasonable clue about the podium composition before the Zoncolan stage has been raced.
User avatar Põhja Konn
Member
 
Posts: 447
Joined: 01 Sep 2012 17:09

Re: Re:

14 May 2018 17:32

SafeBet wrote:
Netserk wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Made a little comparison wtih last year after the first week.

2017
Quintana (perceived as the rider to beat after his dominant Blockhaus win)
Pinot 24"
Dumoulin 24"
Mollema 41"
Nibali 1'00"
Pozzovivo 1'18"
Kangert 2'02"
Zakarin 2'14"
Reichenbach 2'28"
Formolo 2'35"

2018
Yates
Chaves 32"
Dumoulin 38"
Pinot 45"
Pozzovivo 57"
Carapaz 1'20"
Bennett 1'33"
Dennis 2'05"
Bilbao 2'05"
Woods 2'25"

Gaps are really similar in the top10.
Dumoulin sits in a slightly worse position. Last year he was 24" from the jersey, now he's 38" behind and there has alreay been a 10km TT. Let's say he gains 2' on Yates in the ITT, he'll have a 1'20" gap. Which means a bad day like Piancavallo 2017 puts Yates back in rosa or very close.
I don't know if Yates will keep this shape for three weeks but if he does, Dumoulin will have to climb better than last year to win the Giro. I think he can do it, but he's more likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than 1st.

If I may, 2017:
Image

I wrote the stage top10 and not the GC. Dumb me :o

:lol:
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,172
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

14 May 2018 17:39

There's one big difference between 2017 and 2018: Last year Quintana was alone. This year Yates and Chaves can go one after another. That's certainly gonna hurt Dumoulin on this course. Normally Dumoulin gets Popovyched somewhere in the last week. Unless he turns out to have Indurain TdF 94 shape in the mountains.
User avatar staubsauger
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,067
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 18:14

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 20:16

DFA123 wrote:
EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.


Nonsense, Quintana was getting reeled in and spat out by Reichenbach and dropped by Pozzovivo on climbs in the last week. He was miles from top form, at least after his crash. Compare that to him at the 2016 Vuelta and it is night and day. Same goes for Nibali, there is no comparison between last week of 2016 Giro and 2017.


The Yates, Chaves and Carapaz of today would've ended 5 minutes down to Dumoulin last year. Nibali prepared the Giro with great attention and he said that his values were better than 2016. Quintana was the real Quintana, destroying everyone on the Blockhaus and losing the Giro only for 31 seconds with 70km TT and "easy mountains".
P.s: Quintana won the 2016 Vuelta thanks to Contador's ambush, otherwise you would probably say that he wasn't good also at that Vuelta.

The route is different this year above all, 10-15 km less of TT and Dum would've not won in 2017.
There are some strong teams and Dumoulin is slightly worse. Or do you think that Yates/Chaves could've beaten Dumurain at Oropa? Or giving him minutes on a stage like the one to Ortisei or to Asiago?

the other twin was there last year: 8 minutes down in Milan
EroicaStradeBianche
Junior Member
 
Posts: 194
Joined: 01 Oct 2016 20:20

14 May 2018 20:33

Dumo has his mind and body set on the price, keeping it cool & calm. Unless he gets another "dump day" I cannot see him losing this Giro, now that Sky & the Magic Kenyan are in a tough spot to fight for the overall GC...
User avatar hfer07
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,626
Joined: 17 Mar 2009 15:43

Re: Re:

14 May 2018 22:04

Red Rick wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.


He doesn't have to be an elite climber. He is an elite TT rider who is also a good climber. To do what he did in last year's Giro shows he can climb but at the same time I think the field in this year's Giro is better. Nibali and Quintana could never open up a decent time gap on Dumoulin in the mountains, at least one that would cancel his TT gains. I think this year's race is more unpredictable especially with two Michelton rides high on GC. Aru, Lopez and Froome still have something to prove in this race so it's not going to get any easier in the mountains if they can improve on their first week. Pinot is the one that could benefit if he can hold it together. He can let other stronger teams do the bulk of the chasing. The TT will be critical for him. I expect Michelton to be very tactical in the third week as they should be. their team is looking very good.

TIL Nibali, Quintana and Zakarin are weaker than Yates, Chaves and Carapaz.


Zakarin is a bit overrated. What I meant was that Quintana and Nibali were below their best. When has Michelton had two GC riders in this form ? Then you add Froome, Aru, Lopez, Pinot etc. Last year everyone knew that the winner would come from Dumoulin, Quintana and Nibali even so it was the third option for many that won. This year I think the field is deeper. But of course the Sky issues last year are being repeated this year up to a point. I think this race is more unpredictable. But I suppose last year also had the top five riders not far apart on time. That said, I think Nibali and Quintana in better form have a good shot at the Tour this year even if Froome rides. Probably Nibali's last chance as he has said himself.
movingtarget
Veteran
 
Posts: 9,015
Joined: 05 Aug 2009 08:54

15 May 2018 05:51

I hate to say it, but I think he's going to have to drop Yates on a mountain stage as I don't see him getting enough time back in the TT to be able to just limit losses.
User avatar cellardoor
Member
 
Posts: 546
Joined: 05 Apr 2015 03:28
Location: Thailand

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

15 May 2018 07:52

EroicaStradeBianche wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.


Nonsense, Quintana was getting reeled in and spat out by Reichenbach and dropped by Pozzovivo on climbs in the last week. He was miles from top form, at least after his crash. Compare that to him at the 2016 Vuelta and it is night and day. Same goes for Nibali, there is no comparison between last week of 2016 Giro and 2017.


The Yates, Chaves and Carapaz of today would've ended 5 minutes down to Dumoulin last year. Nibali prepared the Giro with great attention and he said that his values were better than 2016. Quintana was the real Quintana, destroying everyone on the Blockhaus and losing the Giro only for 31 seconds with 70km TT and "easy mountains".
P.s: Quintana won the 2016 Vuelta thanks to Contador's ambush, otherwise you would probably say that he wasn't good also at that Vuelta.

The route is different this year above all, 10-15 km less of TT and Dum would've not won in 2017.
There are some strong teams and Dumoulin is slightly worse. Or do you think that Yates/Chaves could've beaten Dumurain at Oropa? Or giving him minutes on a stage like the one to Ortisei or to Asiago?

the other twin was there last year: 8 minutes down in Milan


This Yates would've win or Oropa. Chaves no.
User avatar Blanco
Member
 
Posts: 1,140
Joined: 06 Jun 2017 19:33
Location: Serbia

Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

15 May 2018 08:03

Blanco wrote:
EroicaStradeBianche wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
EroicaStradeBianche wrote:This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.


Nonsense, Quintana was getting reeled in and spat out by Reichenbach and dropped by Pozzovivo on climbs in the last week. He was miles from top form, at least after his crash. Compare that to him at the 2016 Vuelta and it is night and day. Same goes for Nibali, there is no comparison between last week of 2016 Giro and 2017.


The Yates, Chaves and Carapaz of today would've ended 5 minutes down to Dumoulin last year. Nibali prepared the Giro with great attention and he said that his values were better than 2016. Quintana was the real Quintana, destroying everyone on the Blockhaus and losing the Giro only for 31 seconds with 70km TT and "easy mountains".
P.s: Quintana won the 2016 Vuelta thanks to Contador's ambush, otherwise you would probably say that he wasn't good also at that Vuelta.

The route is different this year above all, 10-15 km less of TT and Dum would've not won in 2017.
There are some strong teams and Dumoulin is slightly worse. Or do you think that Yates/Chaves could've beaten Dumurain at Oropa? Or giving him minutes on a stage like the one to Ortisei or to Asiago?

the other twin was there last year: 8 minutes down in Milan


This Yates would've win or Oropa. Chaves no.

Was Oropa the stage where 'top-form' Nibali got dropped and had to be towed to the line by Pellizzotti? If so, I think that Yates in current form would have won that stage comfortably. A classic punch in the last 500m - suits him to the ground.
User avatar DFA123
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,095
Joined: 07 Nov 2010 16:00
Location: Valencia

15 May 2018 16:09

I wonder if that fall from today won't have any negative effects.

Dumoulin said it was NOT a minor fall. It was a harder fall. He says the first five braked way too late and he was number 6th, he was distracted by the guy in front of him going out of his pedal, so missed the corner and crashed hard on one side. Says it doesn't feel bad yet, but it wasnt minor
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,361
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

15 May 2018 16:20

He was too far back in the peloton, that invites accidents like this one. In such descents, his team should take responsibility and hit the front.
User avatar Jagartrott
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,467
Joined: 15 Apr 2014 13:37

Re:

15 May 2018 16:27

Jagartrott wrote:He was too far back in the peloton, that invites accidents like this one. In such descents, his team should take responsibility and hit the front.

Dumoulin said there was 5 guys in front of him and he was the 6th. So I think you are mistaken then
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,361
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

15 May 2018 16:59

I was at bit confused, because in the recap (NOS) they said he crashed earlier during the stage, and that he only had a flat tire at the end. That would mean that the footage was that of the flat tire and the crash was of an earlier descent. I don't think this crash will affect him as much as the crashes have affected Froome though.
Stella0596
Junior Member
 
Posts: 89
Joined: 21 May 2017 12:10

15 May 2018 17:32

No, he seemed relaxed. Although that could be perceived as bluff. We'll find out soon enough because tomorrow is not a stage to hide.
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,361
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

Re:

15 May 2018 17:37

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:No, he seemed relaxed. Although that could be perceived as bluff. We'll find out soon enough because tomorrow is not a stage to hide.

I think it's more that he's focused on performing his best than putting so much pressure on himself that not winning automatically means that his season is a failure.
Veni, Vidi, Kirby

I came, I saw, I was dead wrong as per usual
User avatar Red Rick
Administrator
 
Posts: 13,976
Joined: 20 Feb 2012 18:15

Re:

15 May 2018 17:46

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:I wonder if that fall from today won't have any negative effects.

Dumoulin said it was NOT a minor fall. It was a harder fall. He says the first five braked way too late and he was number 6th, he was distracted by the guy in front of him going out of his pedal, so missed the corner and crashed hard on one side. Says it doesn't feel bad yet, but it wasnt minor


Apart from tomorrow (where unless he goes in to full on collapse, it should be hard to lose more than 20 or 30 seconds), he's got a few easy days to come before the serious stuff if he is feeling wobbly.
Waterloo Sunrise
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,916
Joined: 09 Sep 2009 20:21

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: claude cat, Escarabajo, Eyeballs Out, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], johnymax, Koronin, Leinster, oldcrank, Poursuivant, qwerty16 and 106 guests

Back to top