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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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13 Jul 2018 09:48

Bardet also lost 30s on the climb. It says nothing. When you reach the climb already in the red you are at a clear disadvantage against people who are in the group. This is normal. It's not some cycling manager game
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

13 Jul 2018 10:21

He was exactly 30 sec down at the foot of the hill.
He was 50 down when he started the chase. Maybe you are right and he went into red in the quick chase where he took 20 sec from the gap till the foot of the hill though I'm not sure how much of that was the result of the drafting.

As for the team things didn't go perfectly as Ten Dam couldn't help even for one second and I didn't understand why they tried to use him on the flat in the first part... As for Geschke, why didn't Tom hop on his bike and rode with that for the final 5k? Wouldn't have been that quicker?
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13 Jul 2018 10:56

Why didn’t 6’1” Tom Dumoulin hop on 5’7” Simon Geschke’s bike to ride up a 2km hill? I think Bardet would have some thoughts on riding the wrong size bike up the Mur de Bretagne.
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Re:

13 Jul 2018 12:32

Leinster wrote:Why didn’t 6’1” Tom Dumoulin hop on 5’7” Simon Geschke’s bike to ride up a 2km hill? I think Bardet would have some thoughts on riding the wrong size bike up the Mur de Bretagne.

Froome rode on his teammates bike and still was banging out the watts at the front in the tour.
Fwiw, Domoulin should've gambled with taking a teammates bike. The wheel change took a very very very long time.
SeriousSam wrote: Peña Cabarga is like Froome's Mount Doom, the place where his great power was forged into fearsome weapon. He was never going to lose here
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15 Jul 2018 14:40

Tom felt he was the strongest on the latter cobbled stages of the GC men, but creating differences was hard. Feels like he let a chance go

too much headwind and no real cooperation when there was difference. "The rest got tired but I didn't really"
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16 Jul 2018 06:32

Yeah it felt like a bit of a lost chance, I thought he would follow some move by the likes of GVA or Sagan and stay clear, gaining some seconds. Didn't happen, but a great ride nevertheless.

Next year he should forget about the Giro and focus on the classics. I truly believe he has a shot in most of them (from Sanremo to LBL) and that we're only scratching the surface of Dumoulin's potential. To me, he's among the most underrated riders in the peloton.

As for this Tour, I think he's feeling too good at the moment and fatigue will kick in rather soon. But it's obviously worth a try.
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Re:

16 Jul 2018 10:18

SafeBet wrote:Yeah it felt like a bit of a lost chance, I thought he would follow some move by the likes of GVA or Sagan and stay clear, gaining some seconds. Didn't happen, but a great ride nevertheless.

Next year he should forget about the Giro and focus on the classics. I truly believe he has a shot in most of them (from Sanremo to LBL) and that we're only scratching the surface of Dumoulin's potential. To me, he's among the most underrated riders in the peloton.

As for this Tour, I think he's feeling too good at the moment and fatigue will kick in rather soon. But it's obviously worth a try.

If he won't be riding the Giro in coming years he'll make the Ardennes classics a goal, and later in his career he'll do Roubaix (and perhaps Flanders) aiming for victory.
The sadness of the world has different ways of getting to people, but it seems to succeed almost every time
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16 Jul 2018 10:25

Yeah he pretty much said straight after the race to Ten Dam he wants to ride Roubaix in the future, he had fun.

As for the Tour, I too think he'll fade more and more during the race. He might still do well in the first Alpine stages but then fade away in the 3rd week probably.
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17 Jul 2018 17:08

Looked very good to me. I think he should try tomorrow or thursday, because in week 3 his legs will probably go
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17 Jul 2018 17:47

Yeah, that was my feeling as well. He should try to force some splits and gain time on some contenders during the next two days. In the third week he can switch to defending mode, which is one of his strong points, and there is the TT for him as well. A TOP5 result isn't impossible at all, with a slim shot at the podium with a little luck.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 Jul 2018 17:56

Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

17 Jul 2018 22:54

skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 07:22

Leinster wrote:
skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


He actually has two (3 if you include his teammate), I think Roglic is a bigger danger than Tom purely because he has no Giro in his legs
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 07:39

Leinster wrote:
skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


Not a big deal for Froome, he showed it just a month ago.. :p
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 07:40

del1962 wrote:
Leinster wrote:
skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


He actually has two (3 if you include his teammate), I think Roglic is a bigger danger than Tom purely because he has no Giro in his legs

Yeah... but Roglic isn't the leader of Lotto-Jumbo. Kruijswijk is their guy for the general and Primoz is bound to help him in the final.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 07:51

del1962 wrote:
Leinster wrote:This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


He actually has two (3 if you include his teammate), I think Roglic is a bigger danger than Tom purely because he has no Giro in his legs

I have high hopes for Roglic, but I can't quite bring myself to think he's ready just yet, certainly not with all the "riding for Kruiswijk" talk coming out of their camp.

All these years of crushing inevitability in the Tour have left me unable to hope for anything else than Froome riding away from everyone over the Croix de Fer/Portet/Portillon/Aubisque and not actually needing to smash the TT. But doing it anyway.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 07:57

del1962 wrote:
Leinster wrote:
skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


He actually has two (3 if you include his teammate), I think Roglic is a bigger danger than Tom purely because he has no Giro in his legs


On the other hand Roglic lost about a minute in 31km TT to Dumoulin in Bergen last year in hilly course. Fatigue will have its effects, but not sure if it is that much. Froome lost 1m21s by the way... In the current situation Tom is in pole position against all the rest, but Thomas which I expect TT'ing par or even better than Froome. But he can't lose more than 10-20sec to Roglic/Froome on the way to TT.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

18 Jul 2018 08:05

bambino wrote:
del1962 wrote:
Leinster wrote:
skippo12 wrote:Don´t think he can actually gain time in the mountains. The way Sky dominates the stages is perfect for him. Steady pace...no crazy accelerations. If he can follow Froome for the rest of the race he will have a chance to beat him in the time trial.

This. For once, Froome has an opponent he genuinely needs to attack and beat in the mountains, rather than just wait for the TT.


He actually has two (3 if you include his teammate), I think Roglic is a bigger danger than Tom purely because he has no Giro in his legs


On the other hand Roglic lost about a minute in 31km TT to Dumoulin in Bergen last year in hilly course. Fatigue will have its effects, but not sure if it is that much. Froome lost 1m21s by the way... In the current situation Tom is in pole position against all the rest, but Thomas which I expect TT'ing par or even better than Froome. But he can't lose more than 10-20sec to Roglic/Froome on the way to TT.

no need to read into what happened yesterday far too much. Dunno in whose favour, but the remaining moutain stages are going to frame a very notable time difference between tom, froome and roglic, that's almost for sure.
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18 Jul 2018 08:14

The time difference in the Giro was not needed to be so big. If Dumoulin rode on his own he would have probably lost between 1'00 (his uphill timeloss) and 1'30 (add some on the flats), rather than 3'30 (because of waiting in the downhills).

But it seems hard / impossible not to lose less than 1'00 to Froome over all these mountain stages. And he's already 20 seconds behind. I do not think a fatigued Dumoulin can make up even close to 1'20 on Froome in that time trial, even though it's a far better time trial for Dumoulin than the high speed Giro one. I think the possible time win is more in the margin of '20-40 seconds.. That's why I think only podium/top 5 is possible if he doesn't collapse completely. And that is already quite good after Giro.
Might as well do a Yates in the 3rd week and end 35th. We don't know
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Re:

18 Jul 2018 08:26

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The time difference in the Giro was not needed to be so big. If Dumoulin rode on his own he would have probably lost between 1'00 (his uphill timeloss) and 1'30 (add some on the flats), rather than 3'30 (because of waiting in the downhills).

But it seems hard / impossible not to lose less than 1'00 to Froome over all these mountain stages. And he's already 20 seconds behind. I do not think a fatigued Dumoulin can make up even close to 1'20 on Froome in that time trial, even though it's a far better time trial for Dumoulin than the high speed Giro one. I think the possible time win is more in the margin of '20-40 seconds.. That's why I think only podium/top 5 is possible if he doesn't collapse completely. And that is already quite good after Giro.
Might as well do a Yates in the 3rd week and end 35th. We don't know


See he lost 2-2.5 min waiting for Reichenbach, even though he crossed Finestre summit some 30 sec behind him? Strange :confused:
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