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Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:32

LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
SeriousSam wrote:Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?


Any good, proven GT rider who hasn't ridden the Tour.

it is fairly compensated with a higher class and proven quiality the tour boys obviously have.


When was the last time having a higher class when not fatigued meant anything in the Vuelta?

cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:45

Taxus4a wrote:
TMP402 wrote:
PremierAndrew wrote:
TMP402 wrote:
Red Rick wrote:I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.


If we assume this is true, then advantage Froome on hilly stages 2, 4, 6, and ITT stage 17. As for the mountains:

Stage 7 looks like the traditional _________/ stage Froome uses to take the lead.
Stage 9 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 11 advantage Quintana as it's the _/\_/\_/\_/ type he seems to like
Stage 14 nothing to trouble Froome before the final climb
Stage 15 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 16 advantage Quintana as there are two serious climbs in the final 30km.
Stage 20 should be advantage Quintana but there's a long descent and a slightly hilly finish after the last of four climbs.


Going to put it out there - if Quintana is still the leader for Movistar by the stage 17 ITT, I expect him to lose no more than 30 seconds on Froome. Can see CF blowing up by this point, luckily for him, last week is pretty easy


If Froome and Quintana are at the same level I see Froome winning. If he takes, say, 15 seconds over the three hill stages in the first week, takes 40 seconds on stage 7 (because surely Quintana will not lose the same minute he did in the Tour...), takes a small amount on stages 9, 14, and 15, then he would have a lead of ~1.30. The ITT we don't really know. Let's say he takes a further 20 seconds, so he has nearly two minutes. Can Quintana equal the two minutes over stages 11 and 16? Maybe. Stage 11 in particular he could take a minute out of Froome. He'll then have to go all in on stage 20, but the 8km of descending and maybe another three of basically flat won't make it easy. And unlike Astana and Movistar, Froome will be the undisputed leader of Sky.
/

You never know in an ITT becouse the rest of stages afect in it, but it woudl be normal that Froome put 1 or 2 minutes to quintana in it, I know that ITT very well, becouse I use to train in it, althoug I dont know exacly the last part. Of course quintana ca do it very well there, it is not totaly flar, there is some climbs, but Froome is one of the 5 best TT riders today in the world.

In teh rest I dont know, but Froome is difficult to put time on him in explosive stages, this is not le Tour. The could be similar in stages like Fuente del chivo, a long climnb not too hard, but in andorra or in Alba Quintana should be stronger and try to put the time he will lose in the ITT.

Several more riders count for GC, but Froome and Quintana are the favourites, at least with good weather, with rain Nibali would be the favourite.


Really not true. 2012 & 2013 Froome definitely were, but 2015 Froome was preparing for a Tour where there was hardly any ITT, and after not doing much work on his TT (he admitted this himself), there are a few who are better than him (Martin, Canc, Dumoulin, Dennis, G, Uran, Castroviejo etc).

Then throw in the fact that Froome will be in his 6th week of GT racing in the previous 10 weeks, and you can definitely see him not having much of an advantage due to the TT over the likes of Pozzovivo or maybe even Aru (and Quintana if he does indeed recover better than Froome over a GT)
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:46

cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:48

LanLions wrote:
rick james wrote:So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?


All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.


Yeah but Froome went to the 2012 Olympics and probably had a load of media commitments associated with that, as well as the incident with Wiggins.
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:48

SeriousSam wrote:Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?


Aru has to be the favourite
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11 Aug 2015 11:50

It's very rare for Tour winners to go on and do the Vuelta.

Valverde has multiple years of doing well in the Tour and the Vuelta, showing that it can be done.

If any great GT rider hadn't done the Tour, he would be the favourite now, but that didn't happen. Aru will get outclimbed and out time trialled by his betters like he always does.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:51

TMP402 wrote:
LanLions wrote:
rick james wrote:So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?


All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.


Yeah but Froome went to the 2012 Olympics and probably had a load of media commitments associated with that, as well as the incident with Wiggins.


Tbf, the 2012 Tour was possibly more tiring for Froome than 2015, given that he was on the front on each climb much earlier for Wiggins, and he was up there every single climb, unlike most domestiques who afford themselves a couple of days off
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11 Aug 2015 11:51

I wouldn't be shocked if Aru is the third best rider at the Vuelta.. riding for the Astana team.
Last edited by SeriousSam on 11 Aug 2015 11:51, edited 1 time in total.
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11 Aug 2015 11:51

I reckon Nibali was just riding into form on the final week he could be the one to watch...
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:53

SeriousSam wrote:It's very rare for Tour winners to go on and do the Vuelta.

Valverde has multiple years of doing well in the Tour and the Vuelta, showing that it can be done.

If any great GT rider hadn't done the Tour, he would be the favourite now, but that didn't happen. Aru will get outclimbed and out time trialled by his betters like he always does.


Valverde has never performed anywhere near as well in the Tour before a Vuelta attempt as he did this year. Usually, he rides the Tour as hard as Purito did this year, before doing well in the Vuelta after not being anywhere near as tired as those who come from the Tour. This time, he should be just as tired as Froome and Quintana
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:53

TMP402 wrote:
LanLions wrote:
rick james wrote:So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?


All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.


Yeah but Froome went to the 2012 Olympics and probably had a load of media commitments associated with that, as well as the incident with Wiggins.


Don't remember ever seeing Froome on the TV before, during or after the Olympics.. Just Wiggins. Anyway I don't think the Olympics accounted to him losing 10 minutes in the Vuelta.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:57

LanLions wrote:
TMP402 wrote:
LanLions wrote:
rick james wrote:So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?


All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.


Yeah but Froome went to the 2012 Olympics and probably had a load of media commitments associated with that, as well as the incident with Wiggins.


Don't remember ever seeing Froome on the TV before, during or after the Olympics.. Just Wiggins. Anyway I don't think the Olympics accounted to him losing 10 minutes in the Vuelta.


I felt that Froome was put on the Vuelta as compensation for the Tour, maybe he wasn't prepared for it?
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:57

PremierAndrew wrote:
SeriousSam wrote:It's very rare for Tour winners to go on and do the Vuelta.

Valverde has multiple years of doing well in the Tour and the Vuelta, showing that it can be done.

If any great GT rider hadn't done the Tour, he would be the favourite now, but that didn't happen. Aru will get outclimbed and out time trialled by his betters like he always does.


Valverde has never performed anywhere near as well in the Tour before a Vuelta attempt as he did this year. Usually, he rides the Tour as hard as Purito did this year, before doing well in the Vuelta after not being anywhere near as tired as those who come from the Tour. This time, he should be just as tired as Froome and Quintana

He came 4th last year fighting to the very end. Then 3rd at the Vuelta. Just because he was stronger this year at the Tour doesn't mean he'll be more tired at the Vuelta, it just means this is probably his best year ever. He was also stronger at the Ardennes.

If a big rider had sat out the Tour to target the Vuelta, I'd make that rider the favourite. Aru isn't that rider.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 11:59

LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 12:15

dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 12:21

LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.

the integral part is you don't want froome to become an exceptional rider. :) well. the road judges the riders. wait and see. still burying froome's chance in advance is not very smart
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 12:39

the integral part is you don't want froome to become an exceptional rider. :) well. the road judges the riders. wait and see. still burying froome's chance in advance is not very smart


I don't care what Froome becomes, I just don't think he is, nor will become exceptional. Seeing as you clearly rate him, fancy an Avatar bet on Froome finishing top 3? ;)
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 12:40

dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

Then why were you talking about rules and exceptions thereto in the first place?
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11 Aug 2015 12:51

How many Tour winners do the Vuelta? The fact that few or none won means little if almost no attempt it.

Sastre won the Tour in 2008 and came third at the Vuelta, losing to Contador and Leipheimer who both did the Giro but not the Tour that year. That doesn't exactly show it to be impossible that the reigning Tour champion wins the Vuelta. Is it really reasonable to think that the Tour riders will be beaten by Aru?

Granted, the Vuelta produces surprise winners/2nd places occassionally.. :p
Last edited by SeriousSam on 11 Aug 2015 12:51, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 12:51

LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?


Only time the Tour winner rode the Vuelta in the last 20 or so years since Vuelta is switched after the Tour is Carlos Sastre 2008 and he was 3rd. I would say that is properly competitive
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