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Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

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11 Aug 2015 12:52

No clue who is gonna win it now. It's guessing who will be in form, pretty much impossible.
User avatar Miburo
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:06

Mr.White wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?


Only time the Tour winner rode the Vuelta in the last 20 or so years since Vuelta is switched after the Tour is Carlos Sastre 2008 and he was 3rd. I would say that is properly competitive


I wouldn't say he was competitive for the win, Contador dominated and Sastre finished 4 minutes behind. Also this was when the Vuelta started a week later, that's significant recovery time.
User avatar LanLions
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:10

LanLions wrote:
Mr.White wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?


Only time the Tour winner rode the Vuelta in the last 20 or so years since Vuelta is switched after the Tour is Carlos Sastre 2008 and he was 3rd. I would say that is properly competitive


I wouldn't say he was competitive for the win, Contador dominated and Sastre finished 4 minutes behind. Also this was when the Vuelta started a week later, that's significant recovery time.

The point is that normally the riders who do the giro - vuelta double are stronger than the tour - vuelta double because the tdf is just the most important. But 2008 the situation was different because Contador wasnt able to ride the tour, and the same counts for leipheimer. This year there is not one single rider in the vuelta who didnt ride the tour but could have won it.
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:16

SeriousSam wrote:It's very rare for Tour winners to go on and do the Vuelta.

Valverde has multiple years of doing well in the Tour and the Vuelta, showing that it can be done.

If any great GT rider hadn't done the Tour, he would be the favourite now, but that didn't happen. Aru will get outclimbed and out time trialled by his betters like he always does.


I don't think Aru will win but things can change. Aru is still young enough to make improvements and he should be fresher than several of the other GC contenders.
User avatar Metabolol
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:17

kirbygasm wrote:I reckon Nibali was just riding into form on the final week he could be the one to watch...

It doesn't matter if he was coming into form, he still has a 3 week race in his legs and he will be feeling it, I don't think anyone from le tour will do much at the vuelta
rick james
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:21

LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.


So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?
rick james
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:26

rick james wrote:
LanLions wrote:It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.


So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?

Because "only Contador might do it" =/= "it would be easy for Contador".
User avatar hrotha
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:34

hrotha wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

Then why were you talking about rules and exceptions thereto in the first place?

i'm just suggesting if one outstanding rider couldn't win the double it doesn't mean the other one is doomed to fail a similar gt mission. 'never so far' =/= 'never ever' so when someone says 'one of top favorites stands no chance' i don't understand this
dacooley
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 13:35

rick james wrote:
LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.


Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?

any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.


So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?


He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it
User avatar LanLions
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11 Aug 2015 14:45

Joe Dom for the Velta GC!
jmdirt
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 14:57

jmdirt wrote:Joe Dom for the Velta GC!


All that magical generacion of climbers together in la Vuelta: Quintana, Landa, Aru, Dombroski, and, Pinot?

Joe will be a good reference after to win Utah.
User avatar Taxus4a
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11 Aug 2015 16:56

I'm putting all my money on grande lo squalo Vincenzo Nibali for this Vuelta. Fear the sicilian
StannisBaratheon
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 17:12

LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.


So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?


He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it


Which do you think he'd do? Giro-Tour or Tour-Vuelta?

You think he would have won the Giro and still have enough to beat Schleck in the Tour? Or do you think after that Tour he would have had enough to beat Valverde and co at the Vuelta?
User avatar PremierAndrew
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 17:52

PremierAndrew wrote:
LanLions wrote:
dacooley wrote:
LanLions wrote:
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.


It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.


So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?


He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it


Which do you think he'd do? Giro-Tour or Tour-Vuelta?

You think he would have won the Giro and still have enough to beat Schleck in the Tour? Or do you think after that Tour he would have had enough to beat Valverde and co at the Vuelta?


Don't think he would have beaten Schleck, especially as he would have been weaker and Armstrong may have been more of a factor had Contador not been so dominant... I think the Tour-Vuelta though was doable.
User avatar LanLions
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11 Aug 2015 18:15

Its easier to back up from the TDF into the Vuelta, than in the Giro to the TDF - Giro is usually a more taxing ride than the TDF - Though the profile of the 2015 Vuelta is challenging.
yaco
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Re: Re:

11 Aug 2015 19:12

Taxus4a wrote:
jmdirt wrote:Joe Dom for the Velta GC!


All that magical generacion of climbers together in la Vuelta: Quintana, Landa, Aru, Dombroski, and, Pinot?

Joe will be a good reference after to win Utah.


Very interested to see how he does climbing against the elite now that he seems back on track. Could see him targeting a stage more than GC.
woodburn
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11 Aug 2015 19:15

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys, let alone time trials. For him, the next step is consistently finishing with them in the important stages, not beating them in a GT. I could see him reaching the podium, but winning the whole thing is a bit of a stretch.
Strange people, bike riders. They imagine a racing bike is made for going quickly. They're wrong. A racing bike is made solely for winning races. -Jacques Anquetil
TI-Raleigh
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11 Aug 2015 19:16

I think anyone who puts his money on froome, quintana or valverde is crazy
User avatar jens_attacks
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 20:12

jens_attacks wrote:I think anyone who puts his money on froome, quintana or valverde is crazy


You're putting your money on astana? Which one?
User avatar Miburo
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Re:

11 Aug 2015 20:27

jens_attacks wrote:I think anyone who puts his money on froome, quintana or valverde is crazy


If you want to put money that none of them will win la Vuelta I acept.

What is the problem to race one mont again le Tour, le Tour was little demanding, it was just a training for France, but with a lot of people, and froome just relaxed at the end becouse he had time to win :rolleyes: ;) ( I hope to talk ironically is allowed in the forum, I just to do it, other way, please, tell me)

Pozzovivo is the freser, and we saw with Horner how important is that, but, really, the difference with Aru and people like that is not so important, Froome has the big handicap to dont relax after le Tour, too much compromises, criteriums and things like that, but Froome is much better rider than Aru. If Landa is like in the Giro he could be a problem, but his teamwould be again his main problem.

I would accept the bet, but with rain more than 3 days in the race, I admit that one of those 3 riders could not win
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