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Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

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Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 02:16

LanLions wrote:
Jspear wrote:
LanLions wrote:Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.


This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.


I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!


This post is annoying on a bunch of levels. First you say "this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race"

Jspear points out that the favorites are "riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect." and says it's unlikely that all of them will miss the podium.

You then attempt to be condecending by denying saying exactly what you said, and telling him to "read again." You put him down some more and then you start to attack the entire forum when you obviously haven't read through the thread as several people have brought up the fact that the Tour guys are likely to be tired and that there's no way to know how they'll go.

To top it off you try to put Jspear down for misspelling or just mistyping Schleck when you did the same thing in your response. This all in like your what, 15th, 20th post? Nice start.
User avatar jaylew
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12 Aug 2015 03:11

Exciting times for the Vuelta, unpredictable of course. The only guarantee is a Purito stage win.

Too many cooks for Vino? I reckon so. It will surely be mentally difficult for Landa to give 100% as a dom in the circumstances. If he's climbing like the Giro, he could end up a lone ranger against his own team who will surely not want Nibali to get shown up.

Froome doesn't strike me as the kind of man to enter half heartedly. I think he can win. If the legs aren't what they could be, he will withdraw and leave Henao and Nieve to have some fun. Viviani must be gutted.

Big wildcards like Pozzo, TJ and Majka (Betancur??) should be interesting to follow. I guess Pinot is not riding?

My main hope is that there is not one guy much stronger than the rest. Seems unlikely, but if there is, my best guess is Nairo.

Aside from GC, what sprinters will ride? Kittel? Bouhanni?

Tom Dumoulin to hold maillot rojo till stage 7.
alspacka
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Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 05:12

LanLions wrote:
Jspear wrote:
LanLions wrote:Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.


This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.


I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!


Didn't see this post until it was just quoted.

Here's is what you said. " In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least" Since the riders I mentioned are the pre-race favorites, you basically said you don't think they'll podium....but whatever; perhaps you didn't mean to word it the way you did. You can't just look at history and then say "well this is how it IS going to be." You have to look at the situation at hand. Just go back and look at my post. I gave a reason for why I think certain riders will do good....You didn't even engage with the content of my post. Please tell me this - Can Aru do well after the Giro? Do you remember last year (you seem to like to talk about the history of the sport)? What about Valverde - do you remember how he performed last year? He seems even stronger this year. History tells us he will do very good in the Vuelta.
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Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 09:33

Jspear wrote:
LanLions wrote:
Jspear wrote:
LanLions wrote:Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.


This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.


I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!


Didn't see this post until it was just quoted.

Here's is what you said. " In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least" Since the riders I mentioned are the pre-race favorites, you basically said you don't think they'll podium....but whatever; perhaps you didn't mean to word it the way you did. You can't just look at history and then say "well this is how it IS going to be." You have to look at the situation at hand. Just go back and look at my post. I gave a reason for why I think certain riders will do good....You didn't even engage with the content of my post. Please tell me this - Can Aru do well after the Giro? Do you remember last year (you seem to like to talk about the history of the sport)? What about Valverde - do you remember how he performed last year? He seems even stronger this year. History tells us he will do very good in the Vuelta.


Apologies for my attitude in that post, I was drunk at the time after just getting back from a party and never re-read it in the morning :p Guess I should stay away from the forum after drinking ;) .. With regards to the Vuelta I still stand by my point that we'll get an unlikely winner, but I'm just gonna wait until the race starts now before anymore discussion, whatever happens it should be a great race .. I still tip Brother Frank though :cool:
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 10:29

Can this year's edition be considered the best Vuelta a España of the XXIst century?

- Excellent participation (practically all of the 10 best GT riders in world cycling except from Contador + Involvement in the race).

- An acceptable parcours compared with last years madness (okey, there is an excess in MTF, but there is also interesting hilly stages, the Andorra etapón and a decent ITT).

I personally feel that on paper, it can turn out to be the best Vuelta since the 1999 edition.
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12 Aug 2015 10:30

Agreing with Jspear's point: J-Rod and Valv is always good at the Vuelta regardless, Aru has shown he is capable of 2 GTs at a super high level, Landa is rested (but is still a little question mark to me), Nibali has shown he is good for 2 GTs i wasnt at 100% in the Tour. Quintana is a pure stage racer, getting better by the days and likes it to be tough and was always scheduled to the Tour-Vuelta this season. And I dont see any reason Froome would go if he he doesnt think he will podium at least.

The favorites are just miles ahead of those in 2011.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 11:14

I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome :rolleyes:
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down :D :D :D

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 12:00

I hope to see Kittel
kirbygasm
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12 Aug 2015 12:03

Who will have the best TTT?
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12 Aug 2015 12:14

Probably Astana or Movistar.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 12:54

Gigs_98 wrote:I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome :rolleyes:
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down :D :D :D

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.


2011, 2013, ... fill the gap :D
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12 Aug 2015 13:01

There are some mountains stages that suits well Purito, Other Quintana and others Froome. But Froome is the best in TT.
Here is not loke in le Tour, a demanding week on the flat, so Froome wont have that advantage in the first mountain stage. The ITT is at the end, so is better for people that didnt ride le Tour, or didnt finished, as TVG. But anyways is not an important advantage.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 13:38

Gigs_98 wrote:
-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)

Great topic indeed.
I must add that the user Duarte had Cobo 6th in his top10.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 13:58

kirbygasm wrote:I hope to see Kittel

No Kittel for Giant. Deg is going instead.
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 14:09

The best thing I've learnt from this topic is that Frank Schleck is actually still alive.

Guess you learn something new every day
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Re:

12 Aug 2015 14:31

alspacka wrote:Exciting times for the Vuelta, unpredictable of course. The only guarantee is a Purito stage win.

Too many cooks for Vino? I reckon so. It will surely be mentally difficult for Landa to give 100% as a dom in the circumstances. If he's climbing like the Giro, he could end up a lone ranger against his own team who will surely not want Nibali to get shown up.

Froome doesn't strike me as the kind of man to enter half heartedly. I think he can win. If the legs aren't what they could be, he will withdraw and leave Henao and Nieve to have some fun. Viviani must be gutted.

Big wildcards like Pozzo, TJ and Majka (Betancur??) should be interesting to follow. I guess Pinot is not riding?

My main hope is that there is not one guy much stronger than the rest. Seems unlikely, but if there is, my best guess is Nairo.

Aside from GC, what sprinters will ride? Kittel? Bouhanni?

Tom Dumoulin to hold maillot rojo till stage 7.


What makes you think Dumoulin will hold red jersey even for one day?
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Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 14:42

Gigs_98 wrote:I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome :rolleyes:
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down :D :D :D

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.

I never made fun of anyone. I did however state that Wiggins would finish 6 minutes down :D
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Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 14:51

What makes you think Dumoulin will hold red jersey even for one day?


Error. Got to thinking stage 1 was a prologue.
alspacka
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12 Aug 2015 16:10

What? No Kittel? Anyone know why?
dusty red roads
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12 Aug 2015 16:17

I agree with the sentiment that it is unlikely that a top TDF rider will be competitive. Maybe the Vuelta after the Tour is easier than the Tour after the Giro, but it is still a lot to ask. The top TDF riders are likely to end up having a bad day or at least some bad luck. Tough to make it through 2 tours without any major bad luck.
I think weather will be a real factor. If it is super hot, I think it will exacerbate this situation further.
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