108th Milano - Sanremo, 18th March 2017, 291 km, WT

[Red Rick]

Afaik "he owes me a few beers" is a very common phrase

[Brullnux]

Afaik "he owes me a few beers" is a very common phrase

It is

[burning]

What an unprofessional guy, it is clear that he did not care about his diet.

[Dan2016]

Yep, I saw that gap open, and I thought that was it. Kwiat said that he did it in purpose to get Sagan to react and launch the sprint? I'm not so sure that I buy it, he almost got vino-ed. So he was happy to win and made a brash statement: I'm not so sure that I buy it. In the heat of the moment, post race, I don't know. Both Kwiat and Alaphilippe knew that Sagan had committed when he attacked and did most of the work, they knew that he wouldn't bluff and slow down, risk to lose it all. That predictability puts Sagan at a disadvantage. I don't blame him, though. If we got this fantastic finish, that's thanks to him. The guy is a treasure.

I don't get what all the discussion about. Kwait said, which was obvious to moi, that he backed off Sagan's wheel to take advantage of his slipstream and induce him to launch his sprint from too far out. It's not like it's a super original strategy. To the contrary, it's elementary my dear Watson. What is somewhat unbelievable, however, is that a rider of Sagan's class (though admittedly what nature gave to his body, took from his wits) fell so disasterously for it. There is no doubt that Sagan was not only the strongest rider, his attack on the Poggio showed that, but also the fastest. And it was only a lack of race acumen and the necessary sangue freddo (which is kind of surprising, giving the detached, laid back and nonchalant persona he cultivates for himself in the media) to time his sprint properly that prooved fatal.

Proof that Sagan was hoodwinked and that Kwait had set him up, we read in what they respectively said post race (as quoted in today's la Gazetta dello Sport). Sagan: "Then, when I saw 'Kwait' had lost a few meters I went. There were 300, perhaps 250 meters to go. I don't know. They were too many..." Kwait: "I knew that Sagan was faster. I played with him tactically. I left a small gap, which I knew I could close. I saw that Peter looked back (at me). Then I came back to him taking advantage of the slipstream. It's a tactic you learn on the track."

Look, and I'm not making this up, when Sagan launched his sprint at the front from that far out, I literally jumped from the couch and shouted "No! It's too soon! You're gonna get nipped at the line by Kwait!" And that's exactly what happened. Obviously Sagan didn't hear me and preferred suicide. Sagan though he could win on brute strenght. But in the end he was a victim of his own plan, because with that setting he left himself no alternative. And the legs aren't infinite.

Good post. The bolded part is really interesting, at least to me anyway. It's a track tactic. I never saw anyone use this tactic in small group road sprints before, either personally in races or on TV. Maybe I just missed it, but either way, it's probably a relatively small number of roadmen who also have real track-craft, and an even smaller number who have the cold-mind to use it in such a high stakes situation. I've watched this sprint a few more times and I'm more impressed at Kwiat each time I watch it. It's absolutely brilliant...(and I've learned something I was ignorant of).

I also watched the Poggio attack a couple more times and I've changed my first impression...Kwiat was getting on that wheel either way, he didn't need Alaphillipe. He forced Ala' to take it on, he didn't need him. But that's a matter of opinion. To me Kwiat was just tactically better on all fronts. Everyone who's raced know how hard it is to keep a really cold tactical head when your heart is exploding through your ears and the adrenaline is pumping. It's an impressive ability.

I'm heavily biased by my dislike of Sky but I've put that aside for Kwiat, this is one of the best tactical performances I've seen for some time. A brilliant ride. And I don't see anything to definitely say one way or another who was strongest. Chapeau Kwiat.

Sagan doesn't seem to have the cold calculating mind when it really counts and I hope he develops it. I love aggressive riders, the instigators, but you still have to win. Maybe he needs some lessons from the likes of Michele Bartoli.

[sQiD]

Kwiat was getting on that wheel either way, he didn't need Alaphillipe.

that's really a biased one ! even Julian distanced him

this is one of the best tactical performances I've seen for some time.

i suggest to you Peter's victory at Flanders

I don't see anything to definitely say one way or another who was strongest.

i don't think we saw the 6.5 final kms !

Sagan doesn't seem to have the cold calculating mind when it really counts

aka the Doha Worlds. MSR dosen't count a lot for him, when it really matters (Worlds, Flanders, Roubaix) he is a Killer.

[Brullnux]

Yeah to be fair he has always been awesome at Roubaix. You can tone down the fanboyism, we know Sagan is good.

[tobydawq]

Sagan doesn't seem to have the cold calculating mind when it really counts

aka the Doha Worlds. MSR dosen't count a lot for him , when it really matters (Worlds, Flanders, Roubaix) he is a Killer.

Yeah, you keep saying that MSR doesn't matter that much to him. I really think you are wrong about that and I would like to know why you would think that? My guess is that it is primarily denial on your part - but he cannot be expected to just ride alone to the finish on any type of parcours.

As far as I saw it, he was maximising his chances by attacking on the Poggio and then he was unfortunate with the company he got.

And believe me, it really mattered yesterday as well.

It's just that brute force will take you longer on the cobbles (even though it was extremely close to taking him to the victory yesterday) but that doesn't mean that MSR doesn't count as well.

In fact, I think he was extremely disappointed after the race, which he just never shows.

[Valv.Piti]

There would also be something wrong if he wasn't disappointed after a race like yesterday. Its baloney to think he doesn't really care, its really devaluating the history of the sport, but also Sagan as a person if he would be that nonchalant. I refuse to believe he wasn't down on himself.

[Red Rick]

Sagan attacked because in that moment he thought it was best for his chances. He doesn't get second for fun

[BigMac]

What an unprofessional guy, it is clear that he did not care about his diet.

rekt.

[Tonton]

Yep, I saw that gap open, and I thought that was it. Kwiat said that he did it in purpose to get Sagan to react and launch the sprint? I'm not so sure that I buy it, he almost got vino-ed. So he was happy to win and made a brash statement: I'm not so sure that I buy it. In the heat of the moment, post race, I don't know. Both Kwiat and Alaphilippe knew that Sagan had committed when he attacked and did most of the work, they knew that he wouldn't bluff and slow down, risk to lose it all. That predictability puts Sagan at a disadvantage. I don't blame him, though. If we got this fantastic finish, that's thanks to him. The guy is a treasure.

I don't get what all the discussion about. Kwait said, which was obvious to moi, that he backed off Sagan's wheel to take advantage of his slipstream and induce him to launch his sprint from too far out. It's not like it's a super original strategy. To the contrary, it's elementary my dear Watson. What is somewhat unbelievable, however, is that a rider of Sagan's class (though admittedly what nature gave to his body, took from his wits) fell so disasterously for it. There is no doubt that Sagan was not only the strongest rider, his attack on the Poggio showed that, but also the fastest. And it was only a lack of race acumen and the necessary sangue freddo (which is kind of surprising, giving the detached, laid back and nonchalant persona he cultivates for himself in the media) to time his sprint properly that prooved fatal.

Proof that Sagan was hoodwinked and that Kwait had set him up, we read in what they respectively said post race (as quoted in today's la Gazetta dello Sport). Sagan: "Then, when I saw 'Kwait' had lost a few meters I went. There were 300, perhaps 250 meters to go. I don't know. They were too many..." Kwait: "I knew that Sagan was faster. I played with him tactically. I left a small gap, which I knew I could close. I saw that Peter looked back (at me). Then I came back to him taking advantage of the slipstream. It's a tactic you learn on the track."

Look, and I'm not making this up, when Sagan launched his sprint at the front from that far out, I literally jumped from the couch and shouted "No! It's too soon! You're gonna get nipped at the line by Kwait!" And that's exactly what happened. Obviously Sagan didn't hear me and preferred suicide. Sagan though he could win on brute strenght. But in the end he was a victim of his own plan, because with that setting he left himself no alternative. And the legs aren't infinite.

Did I hit a nerve? What a diatribe...yep, you don't get my point ...which is that Kwiat may have been more opportunistic than calculating and provoking the gap and Sagan's subsequent move. If he did, brilliant. If he didn't, still briliant, he won. But it seems to me that Kwiat was looking a lot over his shoulder not to be jumped by Balaphilippe and be boxed in, and that may have provoked the gap. That was my read when watching the race, and I watched it again. Kwiat may have found himself in a dream scenario, see that Sagan is going, and then seize the opportunity, track-style indeed. Had he reacted half a second later, game over. What is obvious to toi is not obvious to moi . Disagree all you want, it's fine, and maybe you're right: it's a forum, isn't it? And we can disagree.

[sQiD]

Sagan doesn't seem to have the cold calculating mind when it really counts

aka the Doha Worlds. MSR dosen't count a lot for him , when it really matters (Worlds, Flanders, Roubaix) he is a Killer.

Yeah, you keep saying that MSR doesn't matter that much to him. I really think you are wrong about that and I would like to know why you would think that? My guess is that it is primarily denial on your part - but he cannot be expected to just ride alone to the finish on any type of parcours.

As far as I saw it, he was maximising his chances by attacking on the Poggio and then he was unfortunate with the company he got.

And believe me, it really mattered yesterday as well.

It's just that brute force will take you longer on the cobbles (even though it was extremely close to taking him to the victory yesterday) but that doesn't mean that MSR doesn't count as well.

In fact, I think he was extremely disappointed after the race, which he just never shows.

I say that MSR count less for Peter compared to Flanders and Roubaix. In 2012, he said that those two races are his dream. He got Flanders last year, so the next big target is Roubaix.

Of course he would like to win MSR, but it's not a difficult race. That's why he said it's a lottery where the strongest cannot always win. He lost in 2012 because he had Nibali in front, in 2013 because he underestimate Ciolek and lauched his sprint too early. And in 2014 & 2015 he didn't have the legs.

This time he lost due to a genius move from Kwito who deliberatelly left a space between him and Peter at the 250 m line and Sagan felt for it. He did the perfect race but Kwito is and will always remain a very smart rider.
Peter just enjoys riding Flanders & Roubaix more than MSR.

Believe me, when Peter is disappointed, you can see it. Just look at his interviews after OHN after losing again to GVA. In constrat, his reaction yerserday was very gracious in defeat.

Before the race everybody was saying that if he wants to win he should wait for the sprint. But for me, he had to try something and see what happens. So he surges when nobody was expecting it but he wasn't alone. Next year he will try the same attack again and will learn from this year's finish.

[Tonton]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

[Dan2016]

Yep, you don't get my point ...which is that Kwiat may have been more opportunistic than calculating and provoking the gap and Sagan's subsequent move. If he did, brilliant. If he didn't, still briliant, he won. But it seems to me that Kwiat was looking a lot over his shoulder not to be jumped by Balaphilippe and be boxed in, and that may have provoked the gap. That was my read when watching the race, and I watched it again. And I'm "not so sure". It's obvious to toi, not to moi. Disagree all you want, it's fine, and maybe you're right: it's a forum, isn't it? And we can disagree.

Yeah I read it the same way as yourself. But I'm taking Kwiat at his word with his post-race comments. He doesn't come across as the type of guy that would make it up. I reckon he would've just said ''Yeah I left a big gap by mistake and was lucky to have the legs to close it and win'' or something like that. But the post-race analysis is all part of the fun isn't it.

Not many riders would have the balls to use that tactic against a guy like Sagan...or the legs to still win if it was a mistake. Very impressive.

And there is no way Sagan wouldn't be gutted not to win this, whoever said that up thread. It's one of THE great classics, steeped in history. Every classics rider would love to win it.

[sprints n stones]

Think the reason he showed regret after OHN was bizarrely no-one had updated him that the race carried World Tour points. He definitely seemed to be using that race as practice. Dropping to the back of group just before the climbs to make it harder as he had to work past other riders uphill. I think MSR did matter as my commentator kept mentioning no-one had won it wearing World Championship jersey since 1983 ( think it was ) Kwiat is an old adverserery from his Junior days and he is resigned to sometimes losing to him. My opinion is he doesn't like losing to GVA as they are regarded as having similar skill set and losing to him means he could have won but did something wrong.

[Tonton]

Indeed. If Merckx won it seven times, it must be good .

For the Kwiat interview, I'm not calling him a liar or anything, but in the heat of the moment, euphoria, excitement often prevails over facts: that's why debriefings exist. Get a cold head and analyze.

Regardless, by design or by opportunity, it's a fantastic win.

[sQiD]

I disagree with that. Sagan wants to win everything at least once, that how champions are. He wants and he can win every monument. He wants MSR. Otherwise, why get on the saddle, ride 291 km...seriously. He's disappointed, he's not showing it, but deep inside it hurts. He has been close, and he knows that he can win this thing. And I hope that one day, he will.

Of course he wants to win it, but in terms of his priorities this season it just comes second after Roubaix.

I can't say he can win Lombaria, it could be very difficult for him. During Tirreno, he said that if the spring classics becomes boring, he might aim at LBL and the Ardenes, but said it's unlikely to happen.

Finally, i agree with you that inside him it hurts, he's a human being after all.

[Jungle Cycle]

to me Sagan did everything wright. What a monster shape. Reaaaaly good to see this performance with the rainbow jersey.
maybe a bit overconfidence on the sprint but how not to be after riding everybody but 2 out of his wheel.
I still think attacking there was/is his best chance. Better to Sprint with those 2 than with most of the sprinters..
just looked again and Ala had just went to the front when it seemed Popel was a little "slow" and then Sagan exploded. i guess if it wasn't for Ala, Kiawa wouldn't be able to go back to Sagan. Who knows?
awesome to see everybody trying desperately to go back and couldn't even reduce the gap..
Great race!

[sQiD]

Think the reason he showed regret after OHN was bizarrely no-one had updated him that the race carried World Tour points. He definitely seemed to be using that race as practice. Dropping to the back of group just before the climbs to make it harder as he had to work past other riders uphill. I think MSR did matter as my commentator kept mentioning no-one had won it wearing World Championship jersey since 1983 ( think it was ) Kwiat is an old adverserery from his Junior days and he is resigned to sometimes losing to him. My opinion is he doesn't like losing to GVA as they are regarded as having similar skill set and losing to him means he could have won but did something wrong.

I totally agree with you. After all, he lost to someone who worked with him last year at Flanders, so it's less hurting than losing to GVA.

Peter always says that he never plan for races, but have a look at his coach's comment :

"Today's race followed the plan we had. We knew that Peter had to attack on the Poggio because that was the only point where he could drop everybody. From the morning, our objective was to bring him there in the best position possible and the squad did a very good job. He went on fire on the Poggio and the goal was to go solo, but Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe went after him. We had expected the last two guys to go with him would be them, and it proved to be the case. Peter then did an incredible job in the descent and then the flat part but, unfortunately, he was beaten on the line by Kwiatkowski. It hurts when you lose by a couple of centimetres but that's how it is. It's part of the game. Still, Peter and the whole team deserve congratulations for their big effort."

[Tonton]

...which reinforces my point, actually . Speaking from both sides of his mouth...Sagan was going to win solo...but we knew who the three other guys making it a no-solo win would be. We had it all figured out . Rationalizing. Making sense of the result afterwards...it's not dishonesty, it's just reacting in the heat of the moment.