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Giro 2017, stage 12: Forlì – Reggio Emilia 229 km

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Moderators: Irondan, peloton, Eshnar, Red Rick, King Boonen, Tonton, Pricey_sky

Re: Re:

18 May 2017 15:33

Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:Thomas loses another 30 seconds


How did he manage that?



Said he was suffering with his injuries yesterday, spotted a couple of Sky riders in the main bunch at the end so wasn't as if they were all riding full gas to limit his losses, maybe stage hunting week 3?


If he's in that much trouble it makes their decision to pull back Deignan yesterday seem bizarre. Surely at some point soon they have to do as you suggest and just go all out for stages. Let Thomas rest up and ditch about quarters of an hour on GC to set him up for the last week.


Yeah I agree, perhaps he or the team were hoping he'd be ok during these 2 flat stages but doesn't look like it. As you say it's probably best now he loses a heap of time and targets a stage next week if he is better.
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Re:

18 May 2017 15:33

Valv.Piti wrote:Too easy for Gaviria, he will win again tomorrow barring accidents I think. Orica and Ewan needs to at least give themselves a chance t win, horrible showing.


Ewan got lost with 1.5km to go, but managed to get behind Mezgec with just under 1km to go - Don't know what happened after that, but ultimately the lead out was fine - It's Ewan's responsibility.
yaco
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 15:34

Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:Thomas loses another 30 seconds


How did he manage that?



Said he was suffering with his injuries yesterday, spotted a couple of Sky riders in the main bunch at the end so wasn't as if they were all riding full gas to limit his losses, maybe stage hunting week 3?


If he's in that much trouble it makes their decision to pull back Deignan yesterday seem bizarre. Surely at some point soon they have to do as you suggest and just go all out for stages. Let Thomas rest up and ditch about quarters of an hour on GC to set him up for the last week.


Think your call of @ 15min is probably where he'll need to be before he's going to be allowed to infiltrate any serious breaks as most teams with riders still looking for top10s will remain wary of his capacity to take back a number of minutes in the final TT
dirkprovin
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18 May 2017 15:37

if G can rest up in the last week he would surely be favourite for the time trial at least, cos Dumoulin is going to be cooked to death by the last stage.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 15:45

yaco wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Too easy for Gaviria, he will win again tomorrow barring accidents I think. Orica and Ewan needs to at least give themselves a chance t win, horrible showing.


Ewan got lost with 1.5km to go, but managed to get behind Mezgec with just under 1km to go - Don't know what happened after that, but ultimately the lead out was fine - It's Ewan's responsibility.


Yup, feel for the poor sod they had slaving on the front of the peleton for god knows how many miles to then have his purported superstar sprinter make a total hash of things but in all honesty, he has rather a habit of losing his man's wheel. In early season races, you can get away with it; come peak season you pay full price
dirkprovin
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 15:46

dirkprovin wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Pricey_sky wrote:Thomas loses another 30 seconds


How did he manage that?



Said he was suffering with his injuries yesterday, spotted a couple of Sky riders in the main bunch at the end so wasn't as if they were all riding full gas to limit his losses, maybe stage hunting week 3?


If he's in that much trouble it makes their decision to pull back Deignan yesterday seem bizarre. Surely at some point soon they have to do as you suggest and just go all out for stages. Let Thomas rest up and ditch about quarters of an hour on GC to set him up for the last week.


Think your call of @ 15min is probably where he'll need to be before he's going to be allowed to infiltrate any serious breaks as most teams with riders still looking for top10s will remain wary of his capacity to take back a number of minutes in the final TT


Yep he's in the worst possible situation at the moment - three minutes outside the top 10, in a meaningless GC place but still likely to be marked. They should have had him drift in way down yesterday once it became clear that he was getting dropped by twenty guys. The second he started to lose the wheels his GC race was over. If he can take a few days off and there are no lasting injuries he can be a very effective third week stage hunter.
Zinoviev Letter
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18 May 2017 15:58

I don't see Thomas giving up on GC that easily. The main reason he is doing the Giro is to show he can be a contender in GT's.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 15:59

dirkprovin wrote:
yaco wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Too easy for Gaviria, he will win again tomorrow barring accidents I think. Orica and Ewan needs to at least give themselves a chance t win, horrible showing.


Ewan got lost with 1.5km to go, but managed to get behind Mezgec with just under 1km to go - Don't know what happened after that, but ultimately the lead out was fine - It's Ewan's responsibility.


Yup, feel for the poor sod they had slaving on the front of the peleton for god knows how many miles to then have his purported superstar sprinter make a total hash of things but in all honesty, he has rather a habit of losing his man's wheel. In early season races, you can get away with it; come peak season you pay full price


I was really impressed by Gaviria who had to go around Stuyven (I think) to get to Richezes wheel at about 800 meters to go. That is the difference sometimes. One fights hard to get on the wheel he needs and the other just fades away.
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18 May 2017 16:02

Yes, Richeze just moved the **** out of Stuyven when he was on Max's wheel and it seemed in the next second, Richeze was leading out Gaviria for an easy sprint while Stuyven was nowhere to be seen. This is what it takes to win sprints, you gotta be fearless at times.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 16:07

dirkprovin wrote:
yaco wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Too easy for Gaviria, he will win again tomorrow barring accidents I think. Orica and Ewan needs to at least give themselves a chance t win, horrible showing.


Ewan got lost with 1.5km to go, but managed to get behind Mezgec with just under 1km to go - Don't know what happened after that, but ultimately the lead out was fine - It's Ewan's responsibility.


Yup, feel for the poor sod they had slaving on the front of the peleton for god knows how many miles to then have his purported superstar sprinter make a total hash of things but in all honesty, he has rather a habit of losing his man's wheel. In early season races, you can get away with it; come peak season you pay full price


I'd let Edmondson go for the final tomorrow - He'll finish top 10 for raw speed, and could be top 5 with a good ride - I'm actually concerned that Mezgec may leave with Ewan's performance - Rate him him highly as a lead out man - Tomorrow, I'd expect Orica to still work during the stage, then back off when the the break is in sight, and then re-enter the fray with 1.5km to go.
yaco
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18 May 2017 16:11

Not often you see a perfect leadout like this.
kingjr
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 16:53

yaco wrote:
dirkprovin wrote:
yaco wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Too easy for Gaviria, he will win again tomorrow barring accidents I think. Orica and Ewan needs to at least give themselves a chance t win, horrible showing.


Ewan got lost with 1.5km to go, but managed to get behind Mezgec with just under 1km to go - Don't know what happened after that, but ultimately the lead out was fine - It's Ewan's responsibility.


Yup, feel for the poor sod they had slaving on the front of the peleton for god knows how many miles to then have his purported superstar sprinter make a total hash of things but in all honesty, he has rather a habit of losing his man's wheel. In early season races, you can get away with it; come peak season you pay full price


I'd let Edmondson go for the final tomorrow - He'll finish top 10 for raw speed, and could be top 5 with a good ride - I'm actually concerned that Mezgec may leave with Ewan's performance - Rate him him highly as a lead out man - Tomorrow, I'd expect Orica to still work during the stage, then back off when the the break is in sight, and then re-enter the fray with 1.5km to go.


I'd possibly start pairing him off for the rest of the season with the other young quick guys on the team such as Cort & Edmondson and see how they may start to gell. I'd stay off the front of the pack as long as there are other sprint teams willing to put men up there.
dirkprovin
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Re:

18 May 2017 18:41

6 seconds closer to the pink jersey, Yatsey. You can do it. :D

Geraint Too Fast wrote:I don't see Thomas giving up on GC that easily. The main reason he is doing the Giro is to show he can be a contender in GT's.


Hopeufully he decides he'd be better off in the classics squad.
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Re:

18 May 2017 18:47

Geraint Too Fast wrote:I don't see Thomas giving up on GC that easily. The main reason he is doing the Giro is to show he can be a contender in GT's.


I'm not sure that drifting in 30 seconds behind on a flat stage the day after getting dropped by everyone GC relevant and most of their key domestiques on a climb is really much of a way to show that he is still going for GC. I understand what his goals were but, at least partly because of the crash, he is not achieving them.

He's in 16th place, he's 2.30 behind tenth, the five guys between him and tenth are all seriously looking for a top 10, he has lost time on everyone on each of the last two stages, he's carrying injuries. Let's assume everything turns around and suddenly starts going as he might hope. Short of a very lucky breakaway, which he's unlikely to be allowed, how far up the GC could he reasonably expect to climb? 9th? 8th? While if he rests and dumps time he could target both the TT and the mountain breakaways and actually win a stage or two.

Yesterday, with riders being called back, it was pretty clear that he was still going for GC. Today with him losing completely random time it's a little less clear. You may well be right that he will press on for GC. Maybe he thinks that getting 9th proves something. But then the question becomes how much more time can he lose before shifting his goals?

There's also the issue of team morale to consider. Sky's domestiques are paid well to do as they are told, but there's a bit of a difference between giving up your own chances and slogging your guts out for a race contender and doing so so that a guy who has never done better than 15th in 10 previous GTs can get another 15th.
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Re:

18 May 2017 19:18

Mayomaniac wrote:Mareczko's recovery is really improving, the team should think about building a real sprint train for him.


I don't know why Pozzato isn't used for lead-out duties. It's not like he is of some use until now...
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 19:23

Ricco' wrote:
Mayomaniac wrote:Mareczko's recovery is really improving, the team should think about building a real sprint train for him.


I don't know why Pozzato isn't used for lead-out duties. It's not like he is of some use until now...

Because he doesn't want to. He said that he's happy that Mareczko doesn't want/need a lead out train and is able to find the wheels well because he says that sprint finishes nowadays are too chaotic for him and he doesn't like them. Especially as he feels the GC guys get too involved.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 19:42

Ricco' wrote:
Mayomaniac wrote:Mareczko's recovery is really improving, the team should think about building a real sprint train for him.


I don't know why Pozzato isn't used for lead-out duties. It's not like he is of some use until now...

Pippo is there to appear on Italian TV and for the housewifes, at least he's making the sponsors happy by getting more than enough TV time.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 20:28

Superb execution from Quick Step today. Great job by Richeze setting it up, and by Gaviria delivering yet again. Consistency is the true hallmark of a champion.

Zinoviev Letter wrote:Short of a very lucky breakaway, which he's unlikely to be allowed, how far up the GC could he reasonably expect to climb?
Coming out of the 12th stage of the Giro in 2014, a budding GC rider, who had only placed in the top 30 in a Grand Tour once before, was fighting off a cold, 6th, 3:29 behind the previous year's runner-up. Nairo Quintana ended up winning the Giro, 2:58 ahead of Rigoberto Urán.

Coming out of the 12th stage of the Giro in 2016, a budding GC rider, who had only placed in the top 30 on a Grand Tour once before, was 8th, 2:43 behind Bob Jungels, who had hung with the favorites up the climbs and taken 34 seconds of the next-best GC man in the time-trial, and about whom the other contenders were really starting to worry after his stellar performance up Sestola. Esteban Chaves ended up 2nd, less than a minute (or a hill) from winning the Giro, 8:31 ahead of 6th place Bob Jungels (so, in the top-5 by [over] a Mortirolo mile). And that wasn't even (by a long shot) the biggest comeback of that Giro.

I think achieving his goal of podium placing would a huge ask for Geraint Thomas at the moment. But it's not impossible, if he is the rider he (and Sky) think he could be. Yes, there is some talent on offer, but of the riders ahead of him in the GC, only three (Nibali, Quintana & Pinot) have managed a Grand Tour podium before. He's been training for years for a shot at the GC. He likely won't get another one for a year, if that. So with a flat stage, a Unipublic stage, and a medium mountain jaunt to go before the rest day, there's no way he should pull the plug unless he literally can't hang on. And if he's hanging on by then, and he can just hang on with the best on the climbs, then there's nowhere to go but up mountains, and up into the top five.

Push has come to shove. This is when the hitters get going. Life doesn't always give you second chances.
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Re: Re:

18 May 2017 20:43

Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Geraint Too Fast wrote:I don't see Thomas giving up on GC that easily. The main reason he is doing the Giro is to show he can be a contender in GT's.


I'm not sure that drifting in 30 seconds behind on a flat stage the day after getting dropped by everyone GC relevant and most of their key domestiques on a climb is really much of a way to show that he is still going for GC. I understand what his goals were but, at least partly because of the crash, he is not achieving them.

He's in 16th place, he's 2.30 behind tenth, the five guys between him and tenth are all seriously looking for a top 10, he has lost time on everyone on each of the last two stages, he's carrying injuries. Let's assume everything turns around and suddenly starts going as he might hope. Short of a very lucky breakaway, which he's unlikely to be allowed, how far up the GC could he reasonably expect to climb? 9th? 8th? While if he rests and dumps time he could target both the TT and the mountain breakaways and actually win a stage or two.

Yesterday, with riders being called back, it was pretty clear that he was still going for GC. Today with him losing completely random time it's a little less clear. You may well be right that he will press on for GC. Maybe he thinks that getting 9th proves something. But then the question becomes how much more time can he lose before shifting his goals?

There's also the issue of team morale to consider. Sky's domestiques are paid well to do as they are told, but there's a bit of a difference between giving up your own chances and slogging your guts out for a race contender and doing so so that a guy who has never done better than 15th in 10 previous GTs can get another 15th.


If you go back and watch the last few k's you will see that there was a split in the peloton and when they came over the line there was a minor Sky TT racing to the line trying to limit the damage. They got caught out in a split in the peloton, probably from not wanting to battle too hard for position and risk further crashes on a day when it should have been a full peloton finish.
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18 May 2017 21:00

G went too hard in the ITT after the crash. Not 100% so he's paying for it now.

Chapeau the other G - Gaivira. TJ hung in there - hope he feels in a better place.
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