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Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

Esteban Chaves
24
8%
Ilnur Zakarin
36
12%
Miguel Ángel López
70
23%
Mikel Landa
78
25%
Richie Porte
30
10%
Rigoberto Urán
9
3%
Romain Bardet
20
6%
Thibaut Pinot
12
4%
Wilco Kelderman
17
5%
Wout Poels
14
5%
 
Total votes : 310

Re:

12 Sep 2017 10:58

del1962 wrote:The thing that goes against Lopez that with his descending he is highly suspect to an ambush, so he would need a strong team around him.


GT riders often progress in their descending as they grow older (and the same with TT'ing).
It happened a bit to Zakarin and Pinot and I think that Lopez is not as bad anyways as they were.
User avatar Ruby United
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

12 Sep 2017 11:05

DBotero wrote:Zakarin,Landa,Porte,Uran,Poels for me.Uran/Porte(if those injuries didn't destroyed him for good) looks good for now,while the others might need some time to get the win but they have the skills to do it.
G.Thomas if he can reach his pre Giro level might be good enough to challenge for a GT win.He should be in the poll.

In my eyes, they both lack something to convert placings into wins, regardless of their actual abilities.

Porte is subject to very bad days and his tactical sense is questionable, while Uran seems happy to settle for 2nd.
User avatar Alexandre B.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

12 Sep 2017 12:11

Alexandre B. wrote:
DBotero wrote:Zakarin,Landa,Porte,Uran,Poels for me.Uran/Porte(if those injuries didn't destroyed him for good) looks good for now,while the others might need some time to get the win but they have the skills to do it.
G.Thomas if he can reach his pre Giro level might be good enough to challenge for a GT win.He should be in the poll.

In my eyes, they both lack something to convert placings into wins, regardless of their actual abilities.

Porte is subject to very bad days and his tactical sense is questionable, while Uran seems happy to settle for 2nd.


Don't know,but considering their abilities,that little step for converting them to results seems possible.
With Porte there is some randomness involved with his proverbial"luck" always there to hamper his chances.
Uran might change now that he's got his TDF podium and be more aggressive hopefully.
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Re: Re:

12 Sep 2017 12:12

Valv.Piti wrote:
jsem94 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.

This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.

Wait, worse than Purito? Hmm.. :D I'd say they are about equally good, lets not forget some of Purito's absolutely horrible time trials, especially that one in 2010 in the red jersey, I think in Salamanca. That was one for the comic books.

What's Chaves' best ever TT? Purito actually did this once:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22127

And done well on very hilly Pais Vasco TTs too.
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12 Sep 2017 12:15

I don't see any as a near certainty to develop and win a GT as Froome and Quintana were in the season prior to winning their maiden GT. Porte is the most gifted but gets struck down by bad days or bad luck, Lopez and Zakarin will always be vulnerable to downhill attacks and Chaves, Bardet and Lopez need to massively improve their time trialling to go from podium places to the top step.
hayneplane
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12 Sep 2017 12:51

The ship has sailed for some of these riders in the list.

Maybe Zakarin, MAL or Landa.
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12 Sep 2017 12:59

Poll gives a bit of a weird view, as you can vote for multiple guys but it adds up to 100%, so for example in reality more then 28% of the voters think Lopez will win a GT
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12 Sep 2017 13:09

I went for Bardet, Landa, Lopez and Zakarin. To be fair, I should probably say I am confident Lopez will win a GT, I give Landa a better than 50% chance, and I could imagine Bardet and Zakarin winning. I don't regard them as equal favourites to do so.

Bardet has shown he is one Froome crash away from winning a Tour if there are few enough TTing kms. If he would target a different GT, maybe he would do even better there.

If Landa can get it together without crashing or ill-health for one Giro, I don't see who else could beat him - if the course suits him.

Lopez simply looks like the next big GT winner, easiest option to pick.

Zakarin had probably the third most impressive double GT season after Froome and Nibali - he came 5th and then 3rd. He has the skillset required to win a GT, and he's a few days away from turning 28 so he is possibly about to start his career peak. I can totally see him ninja-ing a Giro or Vuelta win.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 13:28

Ruby United wrote:Call me crazy, but only Lopez will...

(I just checked last years poll and the only rider I chose then was Dumo. Sure enough, so far he is the only rider to have won a GT, so maybe it will be the same this year too)

Well, there was only 1 other GT winner than Froome this year. So hm
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12 Sep 2017 14:18

I voted for Lopez and Landa. Last year I probably voted for Pinot and Chavez. If the roles were reversed it is entirely possible that Poels would have won the Vuelta with Froome as his domestique.
Nick C.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 14:27

Ruudz0r wrote:Poll gives a bit of a weird view, as you can vote for multiple guys but it adds up to 100%, so for example in reality more then 28% of the voters think Lopez will win a GT


Good point.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 14:28

Nick C. wrote:I voted for Lopez and Landa. Last year I probably voted for Pinot and Chavez. If the roles were reversed it is entirely possible that Poels would have won the Vuelta with Froome as his domestique.


Nope. Poels had his standard bad first week, no domestique could have prevented that.
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12 Sep 2017 15:21

Next year Landa and Porte (and also Thomas) will have a chance.
Nirvana
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Re: Re:

12 Sep 2017 15:33

jsem94 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
jsem94 wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.

This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.

Wait, worse than Purito? Hmm.. :D I'd say they are about equally good, lets not forget some of Purito's absolutely horrible time trials, especially that one in 2010 in the red jersey, I think in Salamanca. That was one for the comic books.

What's Chaves' best ever TT? Purito actually did this once:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22127

And done well on very hilly Pais Vasco TTs too.

That's not the best ITT of Purito, it's Chorges at the 2013 Tour where he was third only 10" behind Froome. In hilly route like this and those in Pais Vasco was pretty good, his problem was with the flat ones.
Nirvana
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12 Sep 2017 15:34

I voted Landa and Porte. The others are not allround enough (yet) to win a GT. Most of them COULD win a GT if circumstances are in their favour. Can't see Chaves, Kelderman and Pinot win a GT though...
savornin
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12 Sep 2017 15:43

Egan Bernal.
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12 Sep 2017 16:14

My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 16:33

Red Rick wrote:My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

It is safe to assume that next year Giro will be won by a first timer. If Nibali decides to go to the Tour.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 16:35

Red Rick wrote:My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

2016 was the first year since 2005 without a debut winner
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12 Sep 2017 17:02

I voted Landa, Lopez, Chaves and Pinot. I'm not confident about Chaves, but Landa and Lopez should win a GT. Landa soon, and Lopez eventually. I feel Pinot has a very good chance as he is a decent climber and can TT well (sometimes) as well. He was only 1:17 off Dumoulin at the Giro, and ahead of Zakarin, so he isn't too far off currently. His main problem is consistency, especially after a rest day. Zakarin will podium a lot of times I feel but I don't see him winning.
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