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Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

Esteban Chaves
24
8%
Ilnur Zakarin
36
12%
Miguel Ángel López
70
23%
Mikel Landa
78
25%
Richie Porte
30
10%
Rigoberto Urán
9
3%
Romain Bardet
20
6%
Thibaut Pinot
12
4%
Wilco Kelderman
17
5%
Wout Poels
14
5%
 
Total votes : 310

12 Sep 2017 17:03

Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.
User avatar Alexandre B.
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12 Sep 2017 17:25

I'll vote for Lopez in this same poll next year. I definitely think he has the potential to win a GT. I'm gonna pick two who I think could win a GT next year. Landa and Porte. I really think Landa can win the Giro next year. He just needs a little bit of good luck. Same for Porte. He was very strong this year. He has his fair share of haters who think he'll never win a gt, but imo, he can beat Froome.
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User avatar Jspear
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Re: Re:

12 Sep 2017 17:39

Parker wrote:
Red Rick wrote:My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

2016 was the first year since 2005 without a debut winner

At the same time, 13 of the last 16 GTs have been won by 4 riders.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

12 Sep 2017 17:41

I voted Landa and MAL. Landa because I think he'll have two very good chances next year where he probably won't have the strongest competition (assuming he rides Giro-Vuelta) and MAL because he looks extremely talented and I just think it's not likely that in the probably around 10 good season he has left he won't win one single GT.

I'm not confident about guys like Chaves, Zakarin, Kelderman and Pinot though. I think that out of the the generation between 25 and 30 only Landa and guys who have already won gt's (Dumoulin, Aru and Quintana) look like typical gt winners while this generation could very soon be replaced by the younger generation, which looks a bit stronger right now. Bardet is the big exception here. I think he is better than the guys mentioned above but he has the problem of being french which means that he will probably ride the tdf in most cases. If he'd focus giro-vuelta instead I think he'd have a decent chance to win one, just like Aru did in 2015.
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12 Sep 2017 18:00

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

12 Sep 2017 18:56

I voted Miguel Ángel Lopez, as others have said the only one I can feel confident will win a GT. He was so impressive on more diesel type climbs in la Vuelta and his time trial doesn't seem as bad as others (Chaves, Bardet). Have we ever seen Landa ride as GC leader yet? Giro '15 he was super impressive riding for Aru, Vuelta '15 still riding for Aru, ill at the Giro in 2016, domestique for Froome in TdF '16, crashed Giro '17 and very strong afterwards while not riding for GC. This year's Tour he was super strong but riding for Froome - I forgot he came 15th in the final ITT so maybe he gets a vote as well.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 20:16

Zinoviev Letter wrote:As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

The Horner Conundrum. There's a solid-but-not-special mountain domestique in a mid-range team somewhere just trying to get selected for the big races, who doesn't know it yet, but he's going to win the 2020 Giro.
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12 Sep 2017 20:29

I don't agree with the feeling that the new generation looks stronger than the 90 guys.

Many of the younger guys seem almost all near climbing only, and make the same impression guys like Pinot and Bardet made at really young age.
Heck if you start with the 'young impression' riders. Gesink at age 20/21 was a monster for that age. Look how that ended up.

It's dangerous to claim generation x is stronger than generation y. At the end they still have to keep their growth curve. Some might top out fast. Others might grow more slowly.

2 years ago we thought Dumoulin would be a TT Specialist like Martin who might win some Eneco Tour and some classics, but definitely not GT's. And then the Vuelta happened and look were it evolved from there. Even then people didn't believe he could win a GT, not even at the Giro start. Not even the most blind fans like me.

I'm just saying. Predictions are very dangerous to make at such a young age with the new generation (Lopez, Gaudu, etc)
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12 Sep 2017 22:29

I voted Landa. He can win the Giro next year if given leadership. His showing in the mountains was remarkable.
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12 Sep 2017 22:44

I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 23:10

Alexandre B. wrote:Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.


We first discovered Landa as a GT talent in the 2015 Giro.
He rode nearly all the 2015 Giro as a domestique
He rode the 2015 Vuelta as a domestique
He DNF'd the 2016 Giro due to bad illness
He rode the 2016 Tour as a domestique
He crashed in the 2017 Giro
He rode the 2017 Tour as a domestique

So, the way I see it, Landa has gotten a podium in a GT and just missed a podium in the Tour having never ridden a full GT for GC.
That deserves insane hype, in my opinion.
User avatar Ruby United
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 23:16

Zinoviev Letter wrote:As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.


In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.
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Re:

12 Sep 2017 23:31

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:I don't agree with the feeling that the new generation looks stronger than the 90 guys.

Many of the younger guys seem almost all near climbing only, and make the same impression guys like Pinot and Bardet made at really young age.
Heck if you start with the 'young impression' riders. Gesink at age 20/21 was a monster for that age. Look how that ended up.

It's dangerous to claim generation x is stronger than generation y. At the end they still have to keep their growth curve. Some might top out fast. Others might grow more slowly.

2 years ago we thought Dumoulin would be a TT Specialist like Martin who might win some Eneco Tour and some classics, but definitely not GT's. And then the Vuelta happened and look were it evolved from there. Even then people didn't believe he could win a GT, not even at the Giro start. Not even the most blind fans like me.

I'm just saying. Predictions are very dangerous to make at such a young age with the new generation (Lopez, Gaudu, etc)

Excellent points: looking back at the Giro predictions or 2017 predictions with the top-3 of each GT, Dumoulin had very little votes. And that's coming from a crowd here that has some knowledge and in some cases great knowledge of cycling. What do we know?

Having said that, in today's cycling, earpieces and super teams, the best ITT guy will prevail unless you shrink time-trials to be a loop around a supermarket parking lot. Le Tour has the strongest field, and that's where a dominating team makes a difference. Dumoulin '17 is better than Froome '17 IMO, but against the best Sky lineup, he would lose.

Organizers want suspense, but if you artificially design the race to keep riders who don't belong in the mix, it becomes...a lottery.

FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 00:54

Ruby United wrote:
Alexandre B. wrote:Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.


We first discovered Landa as a GT talent in the 2015 Giro.
He rode nearly all the 2015 Giro as a domestique
He rode the 2015 Vuelta as a domestique
He DNF'd the 2016 Giro due to bad illness
He rode the 2016 Tour as a domestique
He crashed in the 2017 Giro
He rode the 2017 Tour as a domestique

So, the way I see it, Landa has gotten a podium in a GT and just missed a podium in the Tour having never ridden a full GT for GC.
That deserves insane hype, in my opinion.

The 2016 Giro was a fair game. Illness is part of physiology. If that was the reason after that monster time trial.
I agree with the other attempts.
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13 Sep 2017 00:55

Of course predictions could be silly. But we cannot discuss those things in this forum.

Natural peaks can be also meaningless for clinic reasons.
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Re:

13 Sep 2017 01:25

LeChuck wrote:I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down


Zakarin is improving as GT rider, this season is the first time he's finished inside the top 10 of a GT which he did twice with a 5th at the Giro and a 3rd at the Vuelta. He isn't absolute top shelf but you don't need to be to win a GT, one of his biggest problems is his team which just doesn't have the firepower to support him.
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 02:02

StryderHells wrote:
LeChuck wrote:I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down


Zakarin is improving as GT rider, this season is the first time he's finished inside the top 10 of a GT which he did twice with a 5th at the Giro and a 3rd at the Vuelta. He isn't absolute top shelf but you don't need to be to win a GT, one of his biggest problems is his team which just doesn't have the firepower to support him.


We'll see what his team is like next year. They've signed a young talent Stefan Cras. He's done real well in the U23 races. They've also signed Ian Boswell from Sky. Anyone from Sky knows how to hit perfect top form.
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 02:08

Ruby United wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.


In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.


Sure, but in the last seven years, four GTs have been won by an outsider. Two of them being Vueltas won by riders who neither before nor after came close to troubling the top 5 of a GT at any point in their career. Riders with inferior records not just to the kind of riders in this poll, but to Peter Velits.
Last edited by Zinoviev Letter on 13 Sep 2017 02:45, edited 1 time in total.
Zinoviev Letter
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 02:45

Zinoviev Letter wrote:
Ruby United wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.


In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.


In the last seven years, four GTs have been won by an outsider. Two of them being Vueltas won by riders who neither before nor after came close to troubling the top 5 of a GT at any point in their career.


4/21 isn't a high sucess rate for outsiders.
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13 Sep 2017 08:05

Podiums are usually dominated by the same group of riders in each era. Sometimes you will get a surprise winner like Pereiro in extreme circumstances in 2006. The 2014 Tour had a surprise podium because of crashes. i can't see Chaves or Zakarin winning in the next few years even though they have podiumed. Dumoulin was a surprise but not a complete one. I think Landa could be the next first time winner but he will need a course with a lot of MTFs and not much TT. I would like to say Porte but he is running out of time and still struggles to finish GTs or avoid problems. Kind of reminds me of Gesink when Gesink was seen to be a possible contender. If Uran can find his old TT form he might be an outside chance as well but he won't win on a really difficult course. Lopez is probably a few years away at least,but seems to have the talent to do it. Bardet is possible as well but he can't climb as well as Landa and his TT is usually mediocre so it will be difficult for him because he climbs well but doesn't dominate in the mountains. Pinot rode a good Giro but consistency seems to be his problem in a three week race. Podium yes but a win is a stretch at least based on recent form.
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