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Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

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Moderators: Irondan, Eshnar, Red Rick, Valv.Piti, Pricey_sky, Tonton, King Boonen

Who will win a Grand Tour?

Esteban Chaves
24
8%
Ilnur Zakarin
36
12%
Miguel Ángel López
70
23%
Mikel Landa
78
25%
Richie Porte
30
10%
Rigoberto Urán
9
3%
Romain Bardet
20
6%
Thibaut Pinot
12
4%
Wilco Kelderman
17
5%
Wout Poels
14
5%
 
Total votes : 310

Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 09:35

Tonton wrote:
FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.

I knew that Pinot would somehow sneak into your conclusion, albeit unobtrusively.

A difference with the past is that the gaps in mountain stages aren't as big as they used to be. It's hardly an individual battle anymore if one team has five riders in an elite group of fifteen on the final climb. If there was still 100 km of time trial it would simply be impossible to win a GT for someone who doesn't excell in that discipline.

EDIT: The promotion for a plus size fashion line was unintentional.
La fatica in montagna per me è poesia (Fatigue in the mountains is poetry to me) - Marco Pantani
Van een ezel kunt ge geen koerspaard maken (You can't turn a donkey into a race horse) - Patrick Lefevere
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 09:46

Pantani_lives wrote:
Tonton wrote:
FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.

I knew that Pinot would somehow sneak into your conclusion, albeit unobtrusively.

A difference with the past is that the gaps in mountain stages aren't as big as they used to be. It's hardly an individual battle anymore if one team has five riders in an elite group of fifteen on the final climb. If there was still 100 km of time trial it would simply be impossible to win a GT for someone who doesn't excell in that discipline.

EDIT: The promotion for a plus size fashion line was unintentional.

If you make it a double space it goes away
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 10:00

Red Rick wrote:If you make it a double space it goes away

Thanks, it was kind of funny.
La fatica in montagna per me è poesia (Fatigue in the mountains is poetry to me) - Marco Pantani
Van een ezel kunt ge geen koerspaard maken (You can't turn a donkey into a race horse) - Patrick Lefevere
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13 Sep 2017 20:48

I'd love to see Froome trying to win the Giro and inherit the Sky curse with Landa finally taking the Pink XD
Mozart92
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13 Sep 2017 21:22

I voted for Chavito, Superman Lopez, Zaka, Landa and TiboPino. Maybe I am a bit too optimistic.
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Re:

13 Sep 2017 21:41

LaFlorecita wrote:I voted for Chavito, Superman Lopez, Zaka, Landa and TiboPino. Maybe I am a bit too optimistic.

Ugh yeah, I definitely think you are. I can see the first 4 winning, but I really can't see Thibaut winning (or being close) at any other GT than the Giro. He would have to be extremely lucky IMO, something like Hesjedal in 2012.

Chavito can win a relatively strong Giro/Vuelta in peak shape with the right route. So can Zakarin, Landa and Lopez (and Tour in the future, probably)
"This is the Tour that will determine If I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
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13 Sep 2017 21:53

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?
Brullnux
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Re:

13 Sep 2017 21:54

Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

The last impression.
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Re:

13 Sep 2017 22:17

Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.
portugal11
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 22:31

portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 22:52

PremierAndrew wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC


Although Pinot improved his downhill skills are still bad. The only reason why he isn`t losing lots of time anymore is that his team figured out that they have to take the lead before the descent. In most situations he slowly lost positions but wasn`t dropped like Zakarin. Katusha needs to be smarter...in Pinots worst days he used to attack and gain 15s to prevent a time lose in the descent.
skippo12
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 23:06

PremierAndrew wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway :) .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... :p How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done :cool: .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...
When I woke up and saw the yellow jersey that I had left by my bed the night before, I asked myself: "what are you doing in Merckx's bedroom?" I couldn't believe it - Bernard Thevenet
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 23:10

PremierAndrew wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Zakarin is a bad descender but pinot is a bad descender too. Don't know who is the worse :D
portugal11
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

13 Sep 2017 23:16

Not taking my bet :) ?
When I woke up and saw the yellow jersey that I had left by my bed the night before, I asked myself: "what are you doing in Merckx's bedroom?" I couldn't believe it - Bernard Thevenet
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 23:20

Tonton wrote:
PremierAndrew wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway :) .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... :p How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done :cool: .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...

Grouchy? Realist... Next year he will do le tour and he won't be top5. I agree with you about zakarin, I think he is a little bit overrated, even his aggressiveness is overrated.
I won't bet with you because the starlist in lombardia is usual weak compared with other monuments.
I didn't lose the giro bet. I said that pinot wouldn't do top5 in giro (and he did) but you said that he would top3 (and he didn't), so no one won
portugal11
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13 Sep 2017 23:25

-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.
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Re: Re:

13 Sep 2017 23:31

portugal11 wrote:
Tonton wrote:
PremierAndrew wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
Brullnux wrote:Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.


This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway :) .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... :p How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done :cool: .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...

Grouchy? Realist... Next year he will do le tour and he won't be top5. I agree with you about zakarin, I think he is a little bit overrated, even his aggressiveness is overrated.
I won't bet with you because the starlist in lombardia is usual weak compared with other monuments.
I didn't lose the giro bet. I said that pinot wouldn't do top5 in giro (and he did) but you said that he would top3 (and he didn't), so no one won

Well, well, well :p ...
viewtopic.php?p=2120507#p2120507
When I woke up and saw the yellow jersey that I had left by my bed the night before, I asked myself: "what are you doing in Merckx's bedroom?" I couldn't believe it - Bernard Thevenet
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Re:

13 Sep 2017 23:39

Breh wrote:-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.
When I woke up and saw the yellow jersey that I had left by my bed the night before, I asked myself: "what are you doing in Merckx's bedroom?" I couldn't believe it - Bernard Thevenet
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Re: Re:

14 Sep 2017 00:40

Tonton wrote:
Breh wrote:-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.


1. They climbed about equally fast appearently, sorry.
2. He wouldn't lose 18seconds in a flat stage if he had a decent "bodyguard" like Bennati or something to guide him in these sprint finales. Having a teammate infront of you who knows how to decent helps. Or they can you drag back to the main group if you do happen to lose time.
3. We're unlikely to fix them. Zakarin isnt considering he has done more than decent before on these first MTFs.

Well, he did lose more than a minute despite his good third week.

Anyway, I suppose they're both riding LeTour next year so let's see how it turns out ;)

Good luck in Lombardia.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

14 Sep 2017 00:51

Enric Mas
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