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Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

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Moderators: Irondan, Eshnar, Red Rick, Valv.Piti, Pricey_sky, Tonton, King Boonen

Who will win a Grand Tour?

Esteban Chaves
23
7%
Ilnur Zakarin
36
12%
Miguel Ángel López
70
23%
Mikel Landa
77
25%
Richie Porte
30
10%
Rigoberto Urán
9
3%
Romain Bardet
20
7%
Thibaut Pinot
12
4%
Wilco Kelderman
17
6%
Wout Poels
13
4%
 
Total votes : 307

14 Sep 2017 05:43

With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.
La fatica in montagna per me è poesia (Fatigue in the mountains is poetry to me) - Marco Pantani
Van een ezel kunt ge geen koerspaard maken (You can't turn a donkey into a race horse) - Patrick Lefevere
User avatar Pantani_lives
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Re: Re:

14 Sep 2017 06:09

Breh wrote:
Tonton wrote:
Breh wrote:-Zakarin is better at both timetrials and climbing.
-Zakarin has won a WT stage race before.
-Zakarin's main weaknesses, positioning and descending, can be solved by having a team that is not entirely terrible. The Tatarstan Truck tends to lose alot of time on the first MTF. That should be fixable aswell.
-Zakarin rode 3 GT's with a decent GC finish as a goal. DNF once, 5th and 3rd, in that order. He is improving every year. He has never been top10 before in a GT GC before this year.

He also has an impressive 3rd week. I think only Contador climbed slightly better than him after the Tomares stage. If you add the TT, Contador and Froome gained 10seconds or something like that on him.

I think they're both unlikely to win a GT but I'd rather put my money on Zak.

1. ITT: one each at the Giro, slight time advantage to Zakarin. Climbing? Says who?
2. Positioning and descending...what does a ream have to do with it?
3. The fixable argument...you and I can also fix our shortcomings and win the Tour, I suppose. Until it's fixed, it's a problem.

Impressive third week? So was Pinot at Il Giro. And at Il Giro Tibopino finished ahead of Zakarin. Cold hard fact. Fact.


1. They climbed about equally fast appearently, sorry.
2. He wouldn't lose 18seconds in a flat stage if he had a decent "bodyguard" like Bennati or something to guide him in these sprint finales. Having a teammate infront of you who knows how to decent helps. Or they can you drag back to the main group if you do happen to lose time.
3. We're unlikely to fix them. Zakarin isnt considering he has done more than decent before on these first MTFs.

Well, he did lose more than a minute despite his good third week.

Anyway, I suppose they're both riding LeTour next year so let's see how it turns out ;)

Good luck in Lombardia.

Zakarin has a problem with the first week, Pinot has a problem with rest days.
Brullnux
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14 Sep 2017 13:02

Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.
"This is the Tour that will determine If I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
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Re:

14 Sep 2017 13:21

Valv.Piti wrote:Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.


You might be right about Pinot. I think the Giro may be the best race for him. The French also ride under a lot more stress at the Tour and I think it affected Bardet going into the TT where he had a really off day even for him. Not that the result would have been any different for the podium. I am in two minds about Zakarin. If he does win a GT I don't think it will be soon.
movingtarget
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Re: Re:

14 Sep 2017 13:25

movingtarget wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:Because it feels like Zakarin has a higher ceiling to me and has a top-5 and top-3 to show for it in the Giro and Vuelta, the first season where he has been a contender.

On top of the ceiling, Pinot is just way, way to susceptible to having bad days and completely vanish from a race. We have seen that on numerous occasions. The Vuelta is way too hot for him and doesn't suit him, the Tour will have warm days as well. The Giro is without a doubt the GT that suits him the best, long climbs, diesel grinding and low temperatures (at least on key stages, generally). But thats his only shot IMO.


You might be right about Pinot. I think the Giro may be the best race for him. The French also ride under a lot more stress at the Tour and I think it affected Bardet going into the TT where he had a really off day even for him. Not that the result would have been any different for the podium. I am in two minds about Zakarin. If he does win a GT I don't think it will be soon.

I didn't vote Zakarin myself, but I just wanted to explain why I think Zakarin has greater chances than Pinot. I only voted Lopez and Landa, but wouldn't be surprised at all if Zakarin or Chaves won a GT at one point. Menchov, a rider very similar to Zakarin IMO, won 2 GTs after all.
"This is the Tour that will determine If I can drink espresso at the Garda lake the rest of my life"
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14 Sep 2017 15:13

Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.
barmaher
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Re:

14 Sep 2017 15:48

barmaher wrote:Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.

The big difference between Zakarin and Porte, and probably the reason why Zakarin has so many and Porte so few votes, is which gt's they target. I agree that right now Porte is the better gc rider but he seems like he only cares about the tour and I despite being strong, I'm not sure if he can win against the absolute best. Zakarin however will probably keep riding the giro and the vuelta, since Kittel has now joined the team, and there you can sometimes get a lucky win due to a weak field. For example I don't think that Aru in 2015 or Nibali in 2010 were stronger than Zakarin this year.
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Re:

14 Sep 2017 16:35

Pantani_lives wrote:With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.


I wonder if a previous winner of the poll should be allowed as an option.
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Re: Re:

14 Sep 2017 16:55

TMP402 wrote:
Pantani_lives wrote:With a lead of three votes it looks like Landa will win this poll for the second time in three years. The future will tell whether he can live up to the expectations.


I wonder if a previous winner of the poll should be allowed as an option.

Well, if the winner of the poll hasn't won a Grand Tour, technically he is eligible for the other polls. :p
User avatar Alexandre B.
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Re:

14 Sep 2017 17:46

barmaher wrote:Porte has climbed at a high enough level for me to believe he can beat Froome with a bit of luck in a GT.
Landa has shown exceptional talent in Grand Tours. His TT has improved enough for me to believe he can win a GT if he manages to avoid a top-form Quintana, Nibali or Froome.
I also voted Lopez. I am not sure he will get there, but he has so much time to play with, that I think he can win at least one.

I agree with the place of all the others on the poll, with the exception of Zakarin. Zakarin has a lot lower ceiling in GT's than Porte in my view. I can't see him winning one.


Landa in top form would beat a top form Nibali. I think he could have even beaten a 2017 Tour Froome.
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14 Sep 2017 18:06

Maybe a modern top form Nibali, but not the Tour 2014 version. I don't think he could reach such heights.
barmaher
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Re:

14 Sep 2017 20:37

barmaher wrote:Maybe a modern top form Nibali, but not the Tour 2014 version. I don't think he could reach such heights.


Sure. And If he's gonna win a gt now he doesn't need to beat a 2014 Nibbes.
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16 Sep 2017 12:19

i'm pretty sure MAL will win a gt in 2018 or 2019
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