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Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

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Who will win the overall?

Poll ended at 15 May 2018 16:40

Yates
26
22%
Chaves
19
16%
Dumoulin
41
35%
Pinot
26
22%
Pozzovivo
1
1%
Carapaz
1
1%
Lopez
No votes
Froome
4
3%
Aru
No votes
Others
No votes
 
Total votes : 118

Re:

14 May 2018 13:09

del1962 wrote:We have yet to see Pinot tested downhill

There aren't many stages to test downhill skills in this Giro.
Which is another reason why I believe Pinot is more likely to win than last year.
User avatar SafeBet
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14 May 2018 14:51

I think Pinot will tank the TT. Maybe even as badly as Chaves. It is after a restday ;)

So far, it's still Tom for me, although Chaves is looking really good too - I am still skeptical of how well Yates will do in the third week.
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14 May 2018 15:33

@Gigs_98, I know that Dumoulin do not follow quick accelerations and he usually reels them back. But that is not always truth. That's how he lost the Vuelta 2016 when the elastic broke and he no longer could reel them back. Last year he found a subpar Quintana and Subpar Nibali. Otherwise I believe that they would have broken the elastic at would have taken more time on him. Additionally he had an extra TT to rely on. It would be more difficult this time around unless he improves in the mountains.

My 2 cents.
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14 May 2018 15:35

Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.
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Re:

14 May 2018 15:56

SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Pretty sure Blockhaus was one best perfromances of the year on a 40 minute climb. Oropa climbing time was insane. Umbrail and Pontives don't really have much reference cause the stages were that hard. Piancavallo wasn't super fast.
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 15:56

SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.


Nibali said at the Vuelta he put his highest numbers ( and could not drop a single Sky domestique) while at Giro he was not at 100%, can't say anything about Quintana.
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 16:02

Flat Out wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.


Nibali said at the Vuelta he put his highest numbers ( and could not drop a single Sky domestique) while at Giro he was not at 100%, can't say anything about Quintana.

I don't know the exact quote, but it's not that weird cause domestiques work a shorter amount of time, and the Vuelta does have the shortest climbs typically. IIRC a lot of the big MTFs also had headwind. Calar Alto being the most prominent one.

Nibali's inconsistency and tactics in the first 2 weeks of the Giro were his biggest problem. Blew himself up trying to follow Quintana and Dumoulin on Blockhaus and Oropa respectively. After that he was caught between a rock and a hard place cause he had to drop Dumoulin but couldn't really expect to take back Quintana in the ITT.

And many say that Dumoulin was let off the hook in that Giro, but I only feel that's the case for the last mountain stage. He was cracking under the pressure of Katusha on the Monte Grappa, and if they'd pushed there and had domestiques from the break Dumoulin doesn't top 5 that Giro.
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Re:

14 May 2018 16:04

SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He called off the big attack on stage 16. You could see Anacona going back and forth calling the car to find out what was going on. He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference on Stage 18. He wasn't good enough. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation either. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week. I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 16:09

Escarabajo wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week.

I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.

Nibali and Quintana were definitely weakening at the end. The stage to Bormio they were still quite strong and the Dolimiti stage is hard to estimate cause they spent the most energy attacking on Passo Gardena. It was bad luck that the domestiques weren't strong enough to get their *** over the climb before Dumoulin had brought them back.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 16:19

Escarabajo wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Is this "subpar Quintana and subpar Nibali" narrative a real thing though? Is it backed by numbers?
Just asking.

Quintana was visibly subpar the last week. I haven't had the time to put the numbers and didn't even bother after looking at his performances.

He called off the big attack on stage 16. You could see Anacona going back and forth calling the car to find out what was going on. He tried several times to make a separation and couldn't make a difference on Stage 18. He wasn't good enough. Towards the ending of stages 19 and 20 he was below the performance of the other climbers. He couldn't make a separation either. At some points he was being dropped by the others. TBH, I wasn't sure what was wrong with Quintana during that week. I wasn't only comparing him against Dumo but the others that were in the race.

I really think Quintana calling off the big stage 16 attack rather had something to do with not being gutsy enough than being weakened. If you can follow Nibali's attack on the Umbrailpass I doubt you can't even attack on the climb before. If that attack would have worked is a different question but I still think Quintana threw away the giro there.
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14 May 2018 16:24

I'm sticking with Pinot, but mainly because Tom's form looks rough and Yates (IMHO) might have peaked too early. Chaves is a head-scratcher though. In any event, it will be fun to see how things work out, after all it is the Giro and anything can --and probably will-- happen.
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14 May 2018 17:43

Picked Chaves, but its mostly on gut feeling, because the mountain stages thus far have been cagey and revealed very little. Though if Pinot has learned how to manages days after restday, it is his big chance at a GT win. In terms of recovery Pinot and Chaves should be the best of the favourites. MAL, Aru and Froome in their current shape are wildcards who cannot yet be completely counted out, but are increasingly likely to be non-factors.
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14 May 2018 18:27

I voted Chaves but I think it's very close between him and Dumoulin. The hard mountain stages in the third week should suit Chaves very well and I think he might just win enough time on Dumoulin to take the win. I think that Yates will fade in the third week. Pozzovivo looks strong but I can't really envision him as a winner. Pinot looks decent as well, but the way he rides doesn't really look like someone Who really wants to win the whole thing. He hasn't really shown the guts like Chaves for instance.
User avatar Hugo Koblet
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 18:29

I still think TD will win.
I think Froome will either finish 2nd or drop out.
I think SY will finish a close 3rd or 2nd.

Nibali looked worse than Froome at this stage in 2016 and went on to win. But I think this is a much tougher Giro.
Also, people picking Pinot over Yates or TD are crazy.
The only reliable thing with Pinot is that he'll disappoint. In the last 3.5 years, he's had 1 top 5 in a GT.
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 18:30

Oliwright wrote:I still think TD will win.
I think Froome will either finish 2nd or drop out.
I think SY will finish a close 3rd or 2nd.

Nibali looked worse than Froome at this stage in 2016 and went on to win. But I think this is a much tougher Giro.
Also, people picking Pinot over Yates or TD are crazy.
The only reliable thing with Pinot is that he'll disappoint. In the last 3.5 years, he's had 1 top 5 in a GT.

Oh boy :o !
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 18:49

LaFlorecita wrote:
Oliwright wrote:I still think TD will win.
I think Froome will either finish 2nd or drop out.
I think SY will finish a close 3rd or 2nd.

Nibali looked worse than Froome at this stage in 2016 and went on to win. But I think this is a much tougher Giro.
Also, people picking Pinot over Yates or TD are crazy.
The only reliable thing with Pinot is that he'll disappoint. In the last 3.5 years, he's had 1 top 5 in a GT.

Oh boy :o !

Pinot = Tour de France confirmed
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 18:51

Oliwright wrote:I still think TD will win.
I think Froome will either finish 2nd or drop out.
I think SY will finish a close 3rd or 2nd.

Nibali looked worse than Froome at this stage in 2016 and went on to win. But I think this is a much tougher Giro.
Also, people picking Pinot over Yates or TD are crazy.
The only reliable thing with Pinot is that he'll disappoint. In the last 3.5 years, he's had 1 top 5 in a GT.

Many people have looked worse than Froome at this stage of a gt, but in recent history only one of them made a comeback. For Nibali to do the impossible so many small factors had to play together perfectly and even if you put Nibali himself in the exact same situation again the chance that the outcome was the same too is minimal. If you want to make a Nibali comparison, the more reasonable one is in my opinion a comparison to the 2015 tour de france where Nibali was rubbish in the Pyrenees but rode himself into form and was the third strongest rider in the Alps. Maybe Froome can do that, although I honestly doubt it. After Etna I thought he was about to get better again but now that he was worse on Gran Sasso than three days earlier I have my doubts.
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Re: Giro 2018 2nd Rest Day - Winner Poll

14 May 2018 19:07

Gigs_98 wrote:
Oliwright wrote:I still think TD will win.
I think Froome will either finish 2nd or drop out.
I think SY will finish a close 3rd or 2nd.

Nibali looked worse than Froome at this stage in 2016 and went on to win. But I think this is a much tougher Giro.
Also, people picking Pinot over Yates or TD are crazy.
The only reliable thing with Pinot is that he'll disappoint. In the last 3.5 years, he's had 1 top 5 in a GT.

Many people have looked worse than Froome at this stage of a gt, but in recent history only one of them made a comeback. For Nibali to do the impossible so many small factors had to play together perfectly and even if you put Nibali himself in the exact same situation again the chance that the outcome was the same too is minimal. If you want to make a Nibali comparison, the more reasonable one is in my opinion a comparison to the 2015 tour de france where Nibali was rubbish in the Pyrenees but rode himself into form and was the third strongest rider in the Alps. Maybe Froome can do that, although I honestly doubt it. After Etna I thought he was about to get better again but now that he was worse on Gran Sasso than three days earlier I have my doubts.


Nibali, however, showed good form on some stages before his outstanding comeback. He attacked on some of the medium mountain stages in week two (never made the difference, but looked allright). He was good on the big Dolomite stage, dropped only by Chaves and Kruiswijk after digging really deep to distance Valverde, kept the gap constant after that.
He basically had two catastrophic days: The MTT and Andalo, for Andalo you could make the case that he was working very hard in the valley to distance Chaves, so he probably looked worse than he really was.
The point I'm trying to make is that although Nibali's deficit was big, he didn't look terrible in every stage and you could still think that he wasn't that bad after all. Froome, however, has been on the backfoot basically the entire race (admittedly it's still very early, so we cannot really say as much about Froome's shape than we can do in hindsight about Nibali's in 2016).
Ultimately, Nibali had to overtake three riders ahead of the last weekend (Kruiswijk crashed, Valverde suffered at altitude, Chaves got tired), whereas for Froome to still succeed, 10 riders have to run into problems (while he has to improve significantly).
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14 May 2018 19:15

Probably the first GT in years on which I have no idea who is likely to win a week in. Voted for Dumoulin just to vote (always important peeps:)) Froome has 4 days to recover and if he can get himself and team at 90%, I wouldn't rule him out just yet. Not convinced Yates is climbing better than Chavez but I guess Saturday will reveal all. Haig will likely have a big say if one of those boys are going to win. Pinot/Pozzo street fighters who won't lie down easily. MAL/Bilbao hopefully team up when Astana again go mental on Zoncolan. Hope Carapaz isn't too scared yet either to have another go (with Betancur of course;)). In conclusion, no idea but really really looking forward to the show:)
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14 May 2018 19:21

For me Froome and MAL are the only ones out of contention after the first week
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