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Giro d'Italia 2019 rumours

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12 Oct 2018 10:55

I get you, but the pacing of the route is very nice with pretty hard MTF, first queen stage in Aosta, hard Como stage, rest day and second queen stage over Mortirolo. Its really nice and I have no problem with a pretty easy start with some nice hilly stages and time trials.
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Re: Giro d'Italia 2019 rumors

12 Oct 2018 11:34

I think it's a nice route until the last three stages which are pretty meh. I really hoped stage 20 would finish in Feltre or with an easier mtf, but now with a probably rather difficult stage finish the last two mountain stages are pretty much all about the final climb and that's exactly how it shouldn't be. A pity especially as stage 14 and 16 are looking to be extremely interesting.
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12 Oct 2018 12:05

Why wouldn't they go all the way up to the Nivolet? At the Rifugio Savoia, about one kilometer of descent after the pass there is plenty of space to host the finish. And like Gigs mentioned, the length and altitude of the climb would only really factor in if they rode those last kilometers as well. And frankly, I cannot imagine why RCS would want to miss out on the broadcast of the stunning images that could be produced up there.
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12 Oct 2018 13:08

Riders need to climb back to the summit before descending to wherever their team buses are parked. Given how narrow is the road, they'd probably have to wait for the last rider to finish before turning back. So having the finish at Lago Serrù riders can turn back as soon as they cross the line.
Rifugio Savoia is just 2km away from Lago Serrù as the crow flies, so they can show the landscape flying a helicopter high above the area.
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Re:

12 Oct 2018 13:21

ice&fire wrote:Riders need to climb back to the summit before descending to wherever their team buses are parked. Given how narrow is the road, they'd probably have to wait for the last rider to finish before turning back. So having the finish at Lago Serrù riders can turn back as soon as they cross the line.
Rifugio Savoia is just 2km away from Lago Serrù as the crow flies, so they can show the landscape flying a helicopter high above the area.

That makes sense

It also makes every bit of difference for the race. Now it's just a pretty lame MTF sandwiched inbetween harder stages.
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12 Oct 2018 19:55

So we have to wait until Halloween - 31 st October - for the big route presentation.
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Re: Giro d'Italia 2019 rumors

13 Oct 2018 18:32

Today Viberti published his usual route prediction on La Stampa. It is basically what we already knew. Only main points are that Como is confirmed, and that he claims stage 14 will start in St.Vincent and stage 15 in Ivrea (so, swapped wrt what I wrote). I find it odd, but it could be.
In any case, start and finish of all stages seem pretty much a given. Now we gotta understand the single routes.

1. Bologna - S.Luca (8.2 km ITT)
2. Bologna - Fucecchio
3. Vinci - Orbetello
4. Orbetello - Frascati
5. Frascati - Sabaudia
6. Cassino - S.Giovanni Rotondo
7. Vasto - L'Aquila
8. Tortoreto Lido - Pesaro
9. Riccione - S.Marino (34.7 km ITT)
rest
10 Ravenna - Modena
11 Carpi - Novi Ligure
12 Cuneo - Pinerolo
13 Pinerolo - Colle del Nivolet (Lago Serrù)
14 Ivrea (or St.Vincent) - Courmayeur
15 St. Vincent (or Ivrea) - Como
rest
16 Lovere - Ponte di Legno
17 Val di Sole - Anterselva
18 Dobbiaco - S. Maria di Sala
19 Treviso - S. Martino di Castrozza
20 Feltre - Passo Croce d'Aune (or Monte Avena)
21 Verona - Verona (15 km ITT)
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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Re: Re:

13 Oct 2018 18:35

Eshnar wrote:
ice&fire wrote:I see a 3km long tunnel in the first hard section of the climb to Nivolet. There's an parallel open road but it doesn't look well maintained. What's the chance they go through the tunnel and we miss what goes on in there?

The chance is there. I would hope the plan is to work on the old road, but I have no info.

they are resurfacing the old road :)
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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14 Oct 2018 10:19

New local article seems to confirm the stage to Courmayeur will start in St. Vincent. The article claims the stage will be very short (a little over 100 km) and feature "multiple climbs" with the S.Carlo at the end. Also, the stage is gonna finish at the Skyway (so, at the end of the false flat), and not in Planpincieux (which is 4 km above).
It seems clear that if this stage is that short, it is not gonna be anywhere near the 5500m mark. Perhaps they are really going for it in Cuneo - Pinerolo...?

1. Bologna - S.Luca (8.2 km ITT)
2. Bologna - Fucecchio
3. Vinci - Orbetello
4. Orbetello - Frascati
5. Frascati - Sabaudia
6. Cassino - S.Giovanni Rotondo
7. Vasto - L'Aquila
8. Tortoreto Lido - Pesaro
9. Riccione - S.Marino (34.7 km ITT)
rest
10 Ravenna - Modena
11 Carpi - Novi Ligure
12 Cuneo - Pinerolo
13 Pinerolo - Colle del Nivolet (Lago Serrù)
14 St.Vincent (or Ivrea) - Courmayeur (Skyway)
15 Ivrea (or St.Vincent) - Como
rest
16 Lovere - Ponte di Legno
17 Val di Sole - Anterselva
18 Dobbiaco - S. Maria di Sala
19 Treviso - S. Martino di Castrozza
20 Feltre - Passo Croce d'Aune (or Monte Avena)
21 Verona - Verona (15 km ITT)

Here is a possible version of stage 14:

Image
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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14 Oct 2018 10:30

Can stages under 140km please die a quick, yet painful death?
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Re:

14 Oct 2018 10:38

Red Rick wrote:Can stages under 140km please die a quick, yet painful death?


Hopefully not.
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14 Oct 2018 10:44

Wow, the whole route actually looks pretty underwhelming. And will there really be a same concept of a stage finale within 3 days?
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14 Oct 2018 11:09

This route really dies with stage 19 I think.
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Re: Re:

14 Oct 2018 11:12

tobydawq wrote:
Red Rick wrote:Can stages under 140km please die a quick, yet painful death?


Hopefully not.

The problem is the outright assumption that a short mountain stage will automatically be good. We use a few stages like Alpe d'Huez 2011 as examples of why this trend is a positive thing, but at the same time we didn't use stages like the Galibier 2011, Rifugio Gardeccia 2011 and so on similarly as examples of why longer mountain stages are a good thing. Short mountain stages when placed poorly or designed poorly can be crappy, just like longer ones can. The criteria are no different for shorter stages than they are for long ones; examples like Oropa 2016 can show us that a short mountain stage can be pretty useless too. Back in the early 2000s the Vuelta was full of short mountain stages and most of them produced pretty poor racing. I despise the automatic assumption that the short mountain stage will produce good racing that seems to proliferate at the moment, because it ignores a few of the other factors that play into why those stages have succeeded. After all, we just saw a Tour de l'Avenir where they had THREE mountain stages where the TOTAL distance was under 200km. It's supposed to be an endurance sport.

That said, if stage 14 here is the short stage, it is using the short stage in the right way. When you have multiple back-to-back mountain stages, it often results in conservative racing in the first ones because riders are too scared of paying for big efforts the following day. Ways to get around this are to make the earlier stages finish on super tough climbs that would be enough to open a time gap regardless - examples include 2011 Giro with Zoncolán before Rifugio Gardeccia, 2008 Vuelta with Angliru before San Isidro/Fuentes de Invierno, and so on. Examples of getting this wrong include the 2009 Vuelta with the Velefique and Sierra Nevada stages hampered by fear of La Pandera, and the 2015 Vuelta where three progressively tougher mountaintop finishes led to super-conservative racing on both Fuente del Chivo (long, gradual) and Jito d'Escarandí (tough at start and end, easier in the middle, Unipuerto) thanks to the toughest stage being last but the previous climbs not being tough enough to guarantee action in and of themselves. These super steep climbs may be marquee names, but when they're placed at the end of the race, they tend to make things somewhat tame earlier on in the race. Just look at the 2012 Giro with everybody afraid of the big finale with Mortirolo and Stelvio to the point where they neglected to start racing until then. The other option is to entice action on the earlier stage by making the last stage of the mountain bloc a short stage, so that riders are less afraid of the fatigue. This is clearly what the Giro's organisers are aiming at, and it has been, with only one major exception - the 2016 Giro to Andalo, which was sandwiched between a rest day and a flat stage - the only method by which these short mountain stages have reaped the positive reputation they've now got. Val Martello was a freak due to the weather, the sub-140km length made no difference to that stage, just as we shouldn't hold 200km+ Unipuertos like Montecampione 2014 against the long stages, as they're no different to stages like Oropa above - when the stage is completely Unipuerto like that, realistically the length is of little relevance since the stage until that climb will be soft-pedalled anyway.

Now, making the Valdôtain stage the short one in the midst of this three-stage mountain bloc is, however, absolutely the right use of Short Stage Theory. I am against the proliferation of Short Stage Theory as an alternative to good course design, which seems to be how certain organisers (a certain French family-run organisation springs immediately to mind...) use it, and I also dislike how many fans have seen a few well-orchestrated uses of the short stage as evidence that it is automatically a Good Thing and that longer stages should be consigned to the past for yielding boredom for long periods of hyper-controlled racing (after all, what would that 2010 Giro have been without the 260km transitional stage to L'Aquila?), when stages like the ones mentioned above, along with Bormio 2017, Monte Petrano 2009, Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne 2010 and Peyragudes 2013 all show us that the long mountain stage still has plenty to offer. However, its the overuse of this trope that bothers me most and if Saint-Vincent - Courmayeur is the only use of Short Stage Theory in the 2019 Giro, it isn't a problem, because they've used it the right way.

Now, three back to back mountain stages on a Thursday, Friday and Saturday with a transitional stage on Sunday may not be the best pacing in the world, and it may result in some tame Cuneo-Pinerolo racing depending of course on the route they go for between the two (part of me is really expecting to see a 2009-esque stage and probably battling only on the Pra Martino because other rumours mean that Sestrières won't be the Cima Coppi which was the only real reason for any action earlier on in the 2009 stage), but seeing as the stage to Nivolet is almost inevitably going to be Unipuerto - there aren't really any comparable obstacles that can be placed before it close enough to be of any importance, so while it may not literally be a Unipuerto stage like Montecampione or Oropa as mentioned above, it will be a stage where nothing of any relevance to the GC happens before the final climb - it makes sense to try to prevent riders from being too frightened to attack until the last 2-3km because of the risk of fatigue in the following day's stage, and making the following stage short is a good way to do that. I also approve of moving the finish down into Courmayeur itself (or rather Entrèves I think, if it's at the Skyway) rather than putting a steep finale on, but this is also going to have to be contingent on the stage being good - they need to include a couple of climbs before San Carlo, otherwise it's a waste of the opportunity provided. Champremier, Pila-Les Fleurs, Saint-Barthélemy, Verrogne and, less likely and smaller, Les Combes, offer a few opportunities to produce a stage that will be short enough to not kill action on Nivolet but tough enough that it's not just 160 fresh riders hitting the base of San Carlo.
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14 Oct 2018 11:41

The stage to Courmayeur can safely be longer and tougher, but nope (it seems).

They can cram in a gazillion climbs on the Cuneo-Pinerolo stage, but if Finestre is not the last climb the stage will decided on Pra Martino/whatever other little climb they can find close to the finish.

As things stand, one can probably youtube the end of Nivolet and safely go on holiday for the almost the 2 first weeks.
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14 Oct 2018 11:58

I just have a very hard time seeing Cuneo Pinerolo being a good stage design.
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Re:

14 Oct 2018 12:13

Eshnar wrote:New local article seems to confirm the stage to Courmayeur will start in St. Vincent. The article claims the stage will be very short (a little over 100 km) and feature "multiple climbs" with the S.Carlo at the end. Also, the stage is gonna finish at the Skyway (so, at the end of the false flat), and not in Planpincieux (which is 4 km above).
It seems clear that if this stage is that short, it is not gonna be anywhere near the 5500m mark. Perhaps they are really going for it in Cuneo - Pinerolo...?

What about the Colle Nivolet stage. You could easily make that a one climb stage but if you want to there are lots of usable passes between Nivolet and Pinerolo.
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14 Oct 2018 12:43

Such as?
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Re:

14 Oct 2018 13:32

roundabout wrote:Such as?

-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Cumiana
-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Braida
-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Lys
-Colle della Dieta
-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/SantIgnazio
-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Forcola
-https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Alpette
And then as the last climb, the Nivolet

These climbs would fit together in one around 200 km long stage and you could still skip or add a few climbs. Not a single climb that really stands out as very hard but together a whole lot of climbing.
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14 Oct 2018 13:40

well, yes, theoretically you can eek out a 5K vertical meters stage with these climbs

which will still be most likely decided in the last 5km
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