Log in:  

Register

Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick, Pricey_sky

Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

Poll ended at 07 Jul 2018 21:48

Chris Froome
41
32%
Richie Porte
17
13%
Nairo Quintana
19
15%
Mikel Landa
4
3%
Vincenzo Nibali
20
15%
Romain Bardet
5
4%
Tom Dumoulin
2
2%
Geraint Thomas
1
1%
Adam Yates
1
1%
Other: Roglic, Fuglsang, Uran, Bernal, Zakarin, Kruijswijk, Mollema, Valverde
20
15%
 
Total votes : 130

Re: Re:

05 Jul 2018 23:13

Parker wrote:
tobydawq wrote:Valverde doesn't peak. He races.

While there's probably a lot of truth in that, his wins tend to decline dramatically after LBL when others catch up.



This is because others are peaking for races after LBL and have much greater differences between peaks and off peaks. (Other than maybe sprinters. Hmmm.....maybe proof he really was supposed to be a sprinter like the peloton though when he first turned pro? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: )
User avatar Koronin
Member
 
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

05 Jul 2018 23:16

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.
User avatar perico
Member
 
Posts: 1,135
Joined: 11 Mar 2009 21:57

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

05 Jul 2018 23:22

perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.



I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.
User avatar Koronin
Member
 
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 01:20

Koronin wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.



I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.


I meant Nairo being able to pull it off against Sky or Froome vs Nibali or Movistar. He was able to against Pinot and Dumoulin at the Giro, but don’t think Bahrain or the other teams would allow that to happen at the Tour.
User avatar perico
Member
 
Posts: 1,135
Joined: 11 Mar 2009 21:57

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 01:52

perico wrote:
Koronin wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.



I do keep forgetting about Tom and the cobbles. You are correct he should be fine on that stage. Movistar would not be happy if Nairo tried to ride against his teammates. (Same would go for the other two as well). I do think there will be guys eliminated from GC on the cobbled stage, although it won't be won there.


I meant Nairo being able to pull it off against Sky or Froome vs Nibali or Movistar. He was able to against Pinot and Dumoulin at the Giro, but don’t think Bahrain or the other teams would allow that to happen at the Tour.



Ah, ok, got it. Bahrain looks like they should have a strong team.
User avatar Koronin
Member
 
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

06 Jul 2018 03:44

***** Froome
**** Thomas, Bernal
*** Movistar Leadership Committee, Porte, Dumoulin
**Nibali, Uran, Bardet, Yates
* Everyone else
User avatar 42x16ss
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,767
Joined: 23 May 2009 04:43
Location: Brisbane, Aus

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 04:08

perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.
User avatar gregrowlerson
Member
 
Posts: 1,816
Joined: 06 Aug 2010 05:46

Re:

06 Jul 2018 05:03

42x16ss wrote:***** Froome
**** Thomas, Bernal
*** Movistar Leadership Committee, Porte, Dumoulin
**Nibali, Uran, Bardet, Yates
* Everyone else



LOL: Movistar Leaderhip Committee, that's a new one although probably more accurate than the 3 Amigos or the 3 Musketeers.
User avatar Koronin
Member
 
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

06 Jul 2018 07:45

Froome, unless he won't heal his asthma.
If it's gets worse, his win is a no brainer.
User avatar Martin
Member
 
Posts: 315
Joined: 20 Mar 2009 06:00
Location: svatyjur.sk

Re: Re:

06 Jul 2018 08:39

Son of Amsterhammer wrote:
Vasilis wrote:
SafeBet wrote:
Vasilis wrote:You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.


Oh he definitely has GT winning potential, but it ain’t gonna be this one!

Maybe I should have added the word "currently".
Vasilis
Member
 
Posts: 760
Joined: 04 May 2014 17:52

Re:

06 Jul 2018 09:12

Martin wrote:Froome, unless he won't heal his asthma.
If it's gets worse, his win is a no brainer.

:lol: :lol: :lol: You made my day.
User avatar SKSemtex
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,027
Joined: 24 Mar 2013 10:01

06 Jul 2018 12:13

head is NOT in charge it requires oxygen to operate.................

my heart knows...................................bardet


Mark L
User avatar ebandit
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,084
Joined: 02 Aug 2012 18:24

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 14:06

gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.
movingtarget
Veteran
 
Posts: 9,001
Joined: 05 Aug 2009 08:54

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 15:45

movingtarget wrote:
gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.


That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.
User avatar tobydawq
Member
 
Posts: 1,363
Joined: 16 Nov 2013 18:45
Location: Denmark

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 15:56

gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Nobody may ride away, but there will be carnage, and the most experienced riders on the pave will benefit.
User avatar perico
Member
 
Posts: 1,135
Joined: 11 Mar 2009 21:57

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 16:09

tobydawq wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.


That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
Veteran
 
Posts: 23,332
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:52
Location: Roermond, the Netherlands

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 16:19

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:
tobydawq wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.


That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.



I think it's more a heart thing. However, regardless of the Tour and his past issues (and well still current altitude issues) he can still win another Vuelta and he can still podium at the Tour.
User avatar Koronin
Member
 
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

06 Jul 2018 16:22

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:
tobydawq wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
gregrowlerson wrote:
perico wrote:I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.


Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.


Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.


That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.


That wasn't what he said. He said his best grand tour days are over. And nothing suggests that. They might be but with the level he has shown the past two years, it would be incongruous.
User avatar tobydawq
Member
 
Posts: 1,363
Joined: 16 Nov 2013 18:45
Location: Denmark

06 Jul 2018 18:12

People in this forum are voting according to the bookies as well except for Landa. Landa seems to be the anomaly in the voting.
It might have to do more with him being a domestique all his career and not having many opportunities to place high on GC.
User avatar Escarabajo
Veteran
 
Posts: 8,969
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 18:38
Location: USA - Central Time

06 Jul 2018 18:29

Heart, definitely with Nibbles as my Mum called him. Head, wee Richie. And as an aside, I'm not convinced Thomas will dom for Froome in this race. It really is quite an intriguing Tour this year for a number of reasons. Fook that TTT though.
User avatar ferryman
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,159
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 23:43
Location: LostinFife

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 120mmStem, 70kmph, 8472, aarononymous, AICA ribonucleotide, Akuryo, alspacka, alter, archa55, Aristarchus, Asero831, barmaher, Billie, Blobs, bob.a.feet, braider, Bye Bye Bicycle, Cance > TheRest, Cancelled, cantalupe, Cinemaniak, Climbing, clydesdale, Corrections, DanielSong39, DDavies, Dekker_Tifosi, dfromdub, dgodave, DNP-Old, dubexcalibur, Eclipse, Finn84, Forever The Best, franic, glassmoon, Google [Bot], Googolplex, GraftPunk, halfnormal, Hugo Koblet, ice&fire, igi000, infeXio, JackRabbitSlims, jaylew, jsem94, Logic-is-your-friend, markene2, MartinGT, Melo, mojomonkey, momus, mrgorilla, MuskyOurSaviour, OmieeZF, ontheroad, Pantani Attacks, PapaD, PeterB, pitchnduel, ppanther92, RattaKuningas, Red Rick, rick james, rlntlssly, Rollthedice, ruamruam, SafeBet, Saint Unix, Scarponi, Screecher, Simurgh, Singer01, slosada, SoNiK4, spalco, StephenC2020, Suck_Out, sulgpallur, T-Nielsen, Tank Engine, The Blues, The Hitch, The Tristero, therhodeo, thrawn, tobydawq, TourOfSardinia, vcampbell, vedrafjord, vino2001, VO2 Max, wirral, woodburn, yawron, Zinoviev Letter, Zoophonic and 676 guests

Back to top