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TDF 2018 Stage 4 - La Baule - Sarzeau 195 km

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Who will win this stage?

Fernando Gaviria
35
40%
Peter Sagan
13
15%
Dylan Groenewegen
17
20%
Marcel Kittel
10
11%
Arnaud Demare
2
2%
Sonny Colbrell
3
3%
Mark Cavendish
3
3%
Andre Greipel
1
1%
Alexander Kristoff
1
1%
Other
2
2%
 
Total votes : 87

Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 17:32

Anderis wrote:
gmedina wrote:what is with people saying that Gaviria gets stuff on a gold platter and how he is not the fastest? people quickly forgot how he came into everyone's radar...by beating Cav in 2015 with the "great" lead out train of Coldeportes team!

I remember how people used to say that Cavendish was winning mainly thanks to the Columbia sprint train. Then he went to Sky and won 3 TdF stages in a team built around Wiggins' GC.

I think a sprint train doesn't make that much of a difference. It decreases the chances of getting boxed but not much more than that. It's just often the best team is built around the best rider so there might be an impression of a rider owing his wins to his team-mates. But it often turns out that the same riders are winning even on those days when their trains didn't do that well.

No, a train is definitely an advantage. Good sprinters can surf wheels and pick their lines and moments, yes, but being protected and guided through that can make it all so much easier.

As has been said, 4 hours of not having to fight for position makes 30 seconds of fighting for it much, much easier.

Yes trains can get it wrong. Yes, sometimes a Sagan or a Bennett or a Cav can tag onto the back of the train. But good leadout men are invaluable. Gaviria might have a lot of his wins without Richeze, but he would’ve had to work harder for them.
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 17:45

Valv.Piti wrote:
jaylew wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Pfff, Groenewegen boxed in and too far. Rode by far the fastest sprint but you don't win races like that.


There's was absolutely nothing to suggest that he rode a faster sprint than the 3 podium finishers. Did you see how long Greipel and Gav were in the wind?

Its DT that was frustrated in the heat of the moment by Groenewegen getting his *** kicked by Gaviria and QS.

He didn't get his *** kicked by Gaviria. By QS sure. He never sprinted against Gaviria so far this Tour. I doubt we'll even see a direct battle by the way things are going at LottoNL
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 17:56

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
jaylew wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Pfff, Groenewegen boxed in and too far. Rode by far the fastest sprint but you don't win races like that.


There's was absolutely nothing to suggest that he rode a faster sprint than the 3 podium finishers. Did you see how long Greipel and Gav were in the wind?

Its DT that was frustrated in the heat of the moment by Groenewegen getting his *** kicked by Gaviria and QS.

He didn't get his *** kicked by Gaviria. By QS sure. He never sprinted against Gaviria so far this Tour. I doubt we'll even see a direct battle by the way things are going at LottoNL


There are eight sprint stages. He will get into a decent position sooner or later. If he can’t with that many tries the problem isn’t just with his support but with him. Same goes for Kittel.
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10 Jul 2018 17:58

Congrats to QS and to Fernando.

Also, this is getting silly. Yes, QS gives their guys a good leadout but Viviani was the fastest guy at the Giro and Gaviria has been the fastest so far here. He went out for a 250m (Richeze dropped him off a little long, because the gap was good and he knew Gaviria could pull it off) headwind sprint and Sagan couldn't get past him.

Bar Greipel, the other elite sprinters were almost gapped. Yeah, Groenewegen and Kittel were badly position, but guys like Kristoff basically couldn't even hold the wheels.
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10 Jul 2018 18:18

The silly part of this discussion is the assumption among some that teams go to all the trouble of assembling a sprint support team, paying them, drilling them, picking them for race squads and putting them to work all for no reason because ultimately the guy who is just the fastest wins.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 18:24

carton wrote:But guys like Kristoff basically couldn't even hold the wheels.

Seems to be the standard with Kristoff these days
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10 Jul 2018 18:40

What's going on with Kittel? Is it form or because of his team?
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 18:53

rainman wrote:
Screecher wrote:
Amazinmets87 wrote:
Screecher wrote:
tobydawq wrote:
He speaks English pretty well.

And very snobbish comment by the way. Why not learn Spanish if you want to understand what Spanish talking people say?

It was the winner's interview. I feel like English should be spoken but that's just me.

Is cycling a traditionally English speaking sport? The paradigm may have shifted in recent decades, but 20 years ago I'd bet more cycling fans spoke Spanish as their first language.

I don't mind them using their own language but they should also do interviews in English. One in their own language and one in English.

How do you figure that out? They can express themselves more clearly in their own language and translation is provided. What an entitled snob.


actually, I remember Sagan giving his interview in Slovak in live on Eurosport. Then, when everybody was surprised, I think the explanation was, that national tv have precedence for making the interview( I am not sure if it is paid, that would explain why it happened only once). Maybe that was the case today too.
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 18:53

Zinoviev Letter wrote:The silly part of this discussion is the assumption among some that teams go to all the trouble of assembling a sprint support team, paying them, drilling them, picking them for race squads and putting them to work all for no reason because ultimately the guy who is just the fastest wins.

Of course it matters, but some people come off as incredibly butthurt.

So if you get dropped off with a great leadout, you basically can't win, can you? People downplay the win to a laughable extent and point towards Kittel and Groenewegen as faster guys. COME ON.
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10 Jul 2018 19:14

Pasqualon has ridden a solid Tour so far, pretty good for a 3rd rate sprinter who's probably more of a one day racer.
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 20:01

rainman wrote:
Screecher wrote:
Amazinmets87 wrote:
tobydawq wrote:
Screecher wrote:Not a fan of riders that don't bother to learn english. No idea what's Gaviria saying.


He speaks English pretty well.

And very snobbish comment by the way. Why not learn Spanish if you want to understand what Spanish talking people say?

It was the winner's interview. I feel like English should be spoken but that's just me.

Is cycling a traditionally English speaking sport? The paradigm may have shifted in recent decades, but 20 years ago I'd bet more cycling fans spoke Spanish as their first language.

I don't mind them using their own language but they should also do interviews in English. One in their own language and one in English.

How do you figure that out? They can express themselves more clearly in their own language and translation is provided. What an entitled snob.[/quote]
Most of Movistar's riders don't speak English. If you want to talk to Valverde in winner's circle and you speak English, you'd better have a translator or you aren't doing an interview. That pretty much goes a good majority of that team. You want someone to speak English on that team you've got Amador and Landa and that's really it for an interview. You want to know what they're saying learn Spanish. Also Gaviria's English is much improved over last year. It's an international sport, don't expect them all to know English, it's not a requirement. (Valverde does know enough English to communicate with his fans that don't speak Spanish and with riders in the peloton that don't speak Spanish, but that is the extent of his use of English.)
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Re:

10 Jul 2018 21:00

dusty red roads wrote:What's going on with Kittel? Is it form or because of his team?

I'd say a little of both. His team is definitely not as strong or organized as he's had but he's also not on the tip top form he's had in the past. Everyone at their best Kittel is very likely the fastest but him being slightly off his best means he's at about the same level as a bunch of other guys like Groenewegen, Sagan, Gav, Greipel, etc...so stuff like team strength, positioning, and wheel surfing ability comes into play even more.
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Re: Re:

10 Jul 2018 22:32

Valv.Piti wrote:
Zinoviev Letter wrote:The silly part of this discussion is the assumption among some that teams go to all the trouble of assembling a sprint support team, paying them, drilling them, picking them for race squads and putting them to work all for no reason because ultimately the guy who is just the fastest wins.

Of course it matters, but some people come off as incredibly butthurt.

So if you get dropped off with a great leadout, you basically can't win, can you? People downplay the win to a laughable extent and point towards Kittel and Groenewegen as faster guys. COME ON.


I agree that there’s often a bit of biased axe grinding going on in these discussions, but I really don’t see how anyone can draw conclusions about the speed of, say, Gaviria v Kittel v Groenewegen at the moment when we haven’t seen them in anything remotely approaching a drag race yet. What we’ve seen is Gaviria and QS deliver a lesson in placement and timing to two guys who haven’t managed to get into a competitive starting position.

Now you can argue about how much of that lesson is coming from QS and how much from Gaviria and to the extent that it’s Gaviria himself getting it right, well that’s also part of a sprinter’s skill set. But what a lot of people value most in a sprinter (wrongly!) is pure speed and so you get exchanges of opinion which go something like “Groenewegen was clearly traveling the fastest” versus “Gaviria won” both of which are true and neither of which prove very much absent context - ie that it’s easier to be fastest when other guys are taking the wind at the front of the sprint and it’s easier to win when you have a dominant team setting things up for you.

(The main reason I like Viviani is that I think he’s probably the slowest in pure athletic terms of the top tier sprinters, unless you start counting guys like Kristoff, but he’s so much better than that because he’s smarter than those other idiots).
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Re:

11 Jul 2018 07:56

Mayomaniac wrote:Pasqualon has ridden a solid Tour so far, pretty good for a 3rd rate sprinter who's probably more of a one day racer.


He certainly is going well so far, much better than he did in last years TDF. He's been in form all season to date and maybe he can get into a break on one of the more 1 day classic type days and get a shot at sprinting for a win away from the 1st tier sprinters.
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