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Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

Egan Bernal
81
28%
Enric Mas
68
24%
Miguel Ángel López
43
15%
Mikel Landa
8
3%
Primož Roglič
67
23%
Richard Carapaz
4
1%
Richie Porte
3
1%
Romain Bardet
2
1%
Thibaut Pinot
4
1%
Steven Kruijswijk
8
3%
 
Total votes : 288

Re:

18 Sep 2018 11:21

Koronin wrote:Roglic and Mas are the two I voted for. Roglic seems to be the most likely. Mas, Lopez, Bernal all need to improve their TTs. Landa is a huge question mark. Who knows if he goes to the Giro with Valverde he might actually be able to win it.

Lopez needs to improve his TT, but i doubt he will. He is still a contender for a low-profile edition of the Vuelta or Giro, just like Giro 2012.

Mas his TT is already better than that of Yates (he was 6th in the Vuelta ITT), so i don't really know where that's coming from. Bernal isn't a TT specialist, but he doesn't suck at them either.
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18 Sep 2018 12:09

The consensus seems to be that four riders have a good chance of winning a GT in the future: Bernal, Roglic, Mas and MAL. The future will tell who is overhyped and who will really become a dominant force. When a young rider has one or two good results he's often declared the next Tour winner, the next Merckx etc. It's not easy to confirm a good start though. He needs to make further progression in the mountains and the time trials, be consistent over three weeks, live like a monk, avoid crashes, have discipline and have a team around him that's willing to go through the fire.
Last edited by Pantani_lives on 18 Sep 2018 12:52, edited 2 times in total.
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18 Sep 2018 12:11

I'm not sure about Mas yet. It looks very promising and this Vuelta was astounding, but I need to see more. I mean, the Vuelta was his only grand tour of the season (he was supposed to do the Giro too, though) and we have seen time and time again that freshness plays a huge role in the last GT of the year. At the same time, his ITT is still a question mark to me as well. He was never bad by any instance, but he was never *this* good either. Not in the youth ranks, not in his two years as a pro either. Lefevere said that it's the plan to do the Giro-Vuelta double next year, then we'll really see wether he can be a future grand tour winner.

Superman I'm sceptical about. I don't think he'll ever be able to out-climb everyone to make up for his horrendous time trial. In addition, he keeps leaking time in short, explosive finishes. He very much could win a Vuelta or two, but the field and course need to be in his favour.

I'm going with Egan for obvious reasons, and I'll take Roglic* as well. Asterisk for Roglic because he very much has the capabilities and then some, but I'm not sure focusing purely on the TDF is going to cut it.
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Re: Re:

18 Sep 2018 12:32

Alexandre B. wrote:
Singer01 wrote:I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.

Lopez is more suited to GT racing and has better results already.

Landa 2015 is long gone, by the way. He's no better than Bardet.

3,3 is so much better than 3,4? MAL has gotten through both as team leader with no issues, Landa has never had that.
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18 Sep 2018 13:17

I voted Bernal, Mas, Roglič and López, but think López is the least likely from that trio - basically how the poll is turning out.
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18 Sep 2018 14:55

Surely Bernal will win a GT. He truly was great in his first GT where he was supporting two other GC leaders. But I don't think he'll do it next year...
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Re:

18 Sep 2018 15:02

Jspear wrote:Surely Bernal will win a GT. He truly was great in his first GT where he was supporting two other GC leaders. But I don't think he'll do it next year...


That is not the premise of this poll, though. I don't think so, either but will not rule it out.
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Re:

18 Sep 2018 15:13

luckyboy wrote:I voted Bernal, Mas, Roglič and López, but think López is the least likely from that trio - basically how the poll is turning out.

That's a quartet, not a trio.
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18 Sep 2018 17:44

Bernal , lopez and mas obviously. It's bit of touch and go with roglic.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 19:56

I am a bit surprised why are all so sure about Bernal and so few votes for Landa. Whats talking for Bernal? Youth?
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 20:05

Von Mises wrote:I am a bit surprised why are all so sure about Bernal and so few votes for Landa. Whats talking for Bernal? Youth?


I'm also surprised about the confidence in Bernal. He's had one decent-ish Tour, and although it's more difficult as not being designated the leader, the jump from decent to victory is huge.

He may well win 5 Tours, who knows, but I'm not seeing it yet.

The bolded bit is an amusing germanism btw, Von Mises.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 20:08

Von Mises wrote:I am a bit surprised why are all so sure about Bernal and so few votes for Landa. Whats talking for Bernal? Youth?


He's the new hottness. The latest and greatest young gun that is fresh in everyone's minds along with Mas. Landa has had his share of ups, downs and inconsistent performances over the past two years to leave the taste of doubt in our mouths. A year or more ago he would be given more support because he was all about the potential to achieve with few bad performances cluttering up his past.
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18 Sep 2018 21:42

Bernal is the most obvious one. I believe he has the potential to tie Contador's 9 and maybe even get 10, but that means that he needs to start winning from 2020. Which I believe he will. Yeah, you can all laugh and tell me to stop hype him, but I call it as I see it.

Next up for me is Mas. What I saw in this Vuelta has really convinced me, he IS the real deal. The prototype stage racer in this day and age IMO - not necessarily in the Tour tho with the heavy Sky train, at least for now.

Lopez next. Really consistent this year, but havent hit the level I expected after last year's climbing exhibitions ina La Vuelta on three days in a row (or something similar). Im not as sure as Mas and certainly not Bernal, but I think he will win a Giro at some point. I dont believe him to win a Tour and it also depends a lot on which GTs he focuses on.

Lastly I voted Rogla, but I dno. The competition is super stiff and he could risk just banging his head against the Sky wall with the TdF-focus he has gotten (which makes sense since he can combine that with a heavy week long stage race schedule).
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18 Sep 2018 22:13

I just hate it so much when people start talking about X athlete achieving Y record when they've not even been at the top yet. Seen a little too much of that in tennis lately. A lot of **** can happen in an athletes career. Especially cycling. Bernal already had 2 massive crashes this year.

Bernal is very good. That's to state the obvious. We'll see if he does great when leading a GT next year.
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Re:

18 Sep 2018 23:44

Red Rick wrote:I just hate it so much when people start talking about X athlete achieving Y record when they've not even been at the top yet. Seen a little too much of that in tennis lately. A lot of **** can happen in an athletes career. Especially cycling. Bernal already had 2 massive crashes this year.

Bernal is very good. That's to state the obvious. We'll see if he does great when leading a GT next year.


Obviously, you can't predict every pitfall in life. I think everyone here understands that it is impossible to say for sure if a certain athlete will ever reach a certain goal or not. However this is clearly a thread filled with hypothesis, people giving their opinion on whether a certain athlete will be "able" to win a GT, having the level required to grow into a GT winner. If that will ever happen, is an entirely different matter. I think this is clear to everyone who's been posting in this thread, that this is not about predicting with certainty what will happen in the future, rather to speculate and debate. So i don't see the issue really.

Like i said before, i can see Lopez win a GT, not because he will dominate other contenders (because i doubt he ever really will), but just because "**** happens". Look at the Giro 2012, if Hesjedal can win a GT, then anyone in that list can win a GT.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 23:55

I didn't realize that I could vote for more than one: guess who I voted for ;) ?

Mas is a no-brainer. After this Vuelta, he's so young, I'm a believer. Chaves is interesting.

After them, it's a guess. For some, it's race circumstances and route design: Bardet, Pinot, SK. Intestinal fortitude, i.e. risk-taking for others, MAL or Carapaz. Or fulfilling potential like Bernal and Gaudu.

Roglic? Others need to take him seriously, race against him and put him in a stage win mode. Leave him in the GC picture, and Primoz can Dumoulin.

I'm not giving up on Pinot and Bardet, but stars have to line-up.
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Re:

19 Sep 2018 01:07

Hugo Koblet wrote:I voted Roglic, Bernal and Mas. I didn't know whether to vote Lopez or not, but in the end I left him out as he will need to improve his time trialing to have a chance to win the Tour, and probably also the Giro.


+1
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19 Sep 2018 06:59

Amazing how quickly hype can die down, and how early in a career. If we had had this discussion a year ago, Sivakov would have been on everyone's lips, Gaudu has only had one mention here which would not have been the case fairly recently, and those who took up the Paddy Power bet on Eddie Dunbar winning a TdF at some stage are fining no reassurance here.

And the oldest of those has only just turned 22.
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Re:

19 Sep 2018 07:18

Armchair cyclist wrote:Amazing how quickly hype can die down, and how early in a career. If we had had this discussion a year ago, Sivakov would have been on everyone's lips, Gaudu has only had one mention here which would not have been the case fairly recently, and those who took up the Paddy Power bet on Eddie Dunbar winning a TdF at some stage are fining no reassurance here.

And the oldest of those has only just turned 22.

The hype for those has never been as well grounded as the hype for bernal or Mas is right now. I mean Mas was hyped last year already but in a thread like this I never would have voted for him because I hadn't seen enough. Same here. Both Sivakov and Gaudu might still turn out to be multiple gt winners but they haven't shown enough to make me think that's likely
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19 Sep 2018 08:08

Ask what the hype for Froome was in 2008 :D I think most of us would expect him to top 30 a GT at some point maybe, but not more.

edit: Dumoulin at the start of his career, most of us would expect a TT rider and maybe classics.. also turned out different.

My point being, there might be good time triallists or young riders who have another type of growth surpassing the Mas and Lopez guys in the future
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