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Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

Egan Bernal
81
28%
Enric Mas
68
24%
Miguel Ángel López
43
15%
Mikel Landa
8
3%
Primož Roglič
67
23%
Richard Carapaz
4
1%
Richie Porte
3
1%
Romain Bardet
2
1%
Thibaut Pinot
4
1%
Steven Kruijswijk
8
3%
 
Total votes : 288

17 Sep 2018 18:12

I'm pretty sure this poll counts multiple votes from one person as multiple votes.....
Veni, Vidi, Kirby

I came, I saw, I was dead wrong as per usual
User avatar Red Rick
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Re: Re:

17 Sep 2018 18:28

RedheadDane wrote:
Pantani_lives wrote:
RedheadDane wrote:You're… pretty optimistic for still including Porte. :p

I know, but only this year many people counted him among the top favorites for the Tour and the Vuelta. If I didn't include him he would obviously win one next year. It's jinxed. :o


So, you don't want him to win?

I'm just trying to avoid leaving a big name out who then goes on to win just to annoy me.
La fatica in montagna per me è poesia (Fatigue in the mountains is poetry to me) - Marco Pantani
Van een ezel kunt ge geen koerspaard maken (You can't turn a donkey into a race horse) - Patrick Lefevere
User avatar Pantani_lives
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17 Sep 2018 18:40

For the current ones that I believe can win a GT for the first time would be Mas, Bernal, MAL, Krushweak, Pinot, Chaves, and Adam.

Some of those need the stars to align.

For next year the only ones I believe could win are Krushweak, Pinot, Chaves, and Adam.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

17 Sep 2018 19:14

LaFlorecita wrote:Voted Bernal, Mas, Lopez and Roglic.
I've voted Pinot and Bardet in the past but I don't see it happening anymore with the next generation coming up.


OMG my exact votes! I've given up on all the others.

EDIT: Now that I've read the entire thread it seems those 4 are high on Many lists!
Alberto Contador=Legend!

Nibali becomes only the 6th winner of all 3 GTS (2014)!
Nibali joins Gimondi, Merckx and Hinault as only the 4th man to win all 3 GTS and 2 different Monuments (2018). A throwback rider in this age of specialization. Bravo!
User avatar Carols
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17 Sep 2018 19:26

I know he TTs poorly, but I don't think Iván Sosa will go through his career without winning a Grand Tour.

He was comfortably beating Supermán in Burgos, and even if he didn't peak for that race, he probably was not much below his Vuelta form.

And it's not like it's impossible to overcome one's shortcomings in the time trial if one chooses to focus on improving it.

It would also surprise me if Tadej Pogacar doesn't go on to win a Grand Tour some time.
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17 Sep 2018 19:35

Mas and Bergan will win the TDF one day, maybe more as long as they have good support. I think Lopez might be the first to win a GT out of the three, but doubt he wins the TDF at this point. Depends on the parcours for Lopez. If Mas truly has Contador-esque talent, he will win a lot after the Froome Era is definitively over. Right now Bernal looks like a sure winner. My only concern is whether his trajectory follows the Nairo model of career peak.
User avatar perico
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17 Sep 2018 21:14

It’s looking more likely that Porte will never win a GT. Pinot, Bardet, Landa and Kruijswijk are starting to run out of time with some of the new young guns arriving.

Couldn’t choose Lopez, unless he changes his way of racing he’s not going to win a GT. That leaves Bernal, Mas and Roglic who are all showing the right signs IMO.

From left field - Jack Haig, if Matt White dares to let him off the leash, but I don’t think Haig realises how good he actually is yet.
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17 Sep 2018 21:15

Matej Mohorič? If he "lost the fat"?
"Are you going to believe me or what you see with your own eyes?"

“It doesn’t matter what I do. People need to hear what I have to say. There’s no one else who can say what I can say. It doesn’t matter what I live.”
User avatar Robert5091
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Re:

17 Sep 2018 21:17

Robert5091 wrote:Matej Mohorič? If he "lost the fat"?

He’d need to go from Wigans 2008 straight to Wigans 2012...

Classics, yes, but I can’t see a GT.
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17 Sep 2018 22:22

The usual suspects are already mentioned.. I would go to David Gaudu. He may win a GT, but his main curse is that he is french.
YavorD
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Re: Re:

18 Sep 2018 00:12

Hugo Koblet wrote:
staubsauger wrote:Levi Leipheimer is more likely to still win a grand tour than Porte! :o

Roglic actually might be too centered around the Tour de France. If Jumbo sends him & Kruijswijk with full forces to the Giro d'Italia though, he's no.1 favorite!

Bernal probably gets team leadership or at least co-leadership at the Giro in which case he's a good candidate.

Landa's chances just increased with Quintana doing the Tour again, which opens the door for being co-leader with Valverde in Italy.

Mas might stand a chance in a somewhat slimmer Vuelta field regarding fresh riders. He's been second this year and carries around a more than decent TT after all.

Kruijswijk remains a dark horse as the Giro d'Italia really favors his capabilities.

Regarding Roglic, this is my concern as well. However, he's much younger than Froome and Thomas and then there's only, currently at least, Dumoulin who's a better time trialist than him.


I can see Roglic finishing 2nd/3rd in a Tour behind Yates/Dumoulin/Bernal and then going out and bossing a Vuelta straight after. So even if he might seem a bit TdF-centric right now, he won’t necessarily be throwing all his eggs in the basket.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 04:24

Bernal is the obvious option BUT I doubt he'll get a change at SKY as long as Froome, G & any UK rider gets priority....
User avatar hfer07
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 04:29

hfer07 wrote:Bernal is the obvious option BUT I doubt he'll get a change at SKY as long as Froome, G & any UK rider gets priority....


What a silly statement - Sky's DNA is to win GT's - They will back Bernal or whoever can give them a win.
yaco
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18 Sep 2018 04:30

Roglic and Mas are the two I voted for. Roglic seems to be the most likely. Mas, Lopez, Bernal all need to improve their TTs. Landa is a huge question mark. Who knows if he goes to the Giro with Valverde he might actually be able to win it.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 04:57

hfer07 wrote:Bernal is the obvious option BUT I doubt he'll get a change at SKY as long as Froome, G & any UK rider gets priority....

He's got years and years, G and Froome have max 2 years left. The time he puts in under grand tour winners in a team with a winning mentality will be invaluable.
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18 Sep 2018 07:27

I voted for Bernal, Roglic, Mas, Kruijswijk and Lopez.
But this is the first time I can see all of the options with a chance to win a GT in the future if stars align.
I won't comment on the most voted riders but a I'll give a few thoughts on the others.

Steven Kruijswijk: surprised he wasn't voted more. He's never been as consistent as this year and Jumbo looks excellent as a whole. 5th in the Tour and 4th in the Vuelta, both races had abysmal routes for his skillset. Call me crazy but if he starts next year Giro in this shape he's my favourite to win it. Yes, even against S. Yates.

Mikel Landa: nothing I've seen in 2018 changed my opinion him. He was badly injured during the Tour and still finished 7th. Talent is there. He needs luck and some proper mountain stages. Can win the Giro. The only reason I didn't vote for him is because I believe he can't cope with pressure.

Thibaut Pinot: the most human GT rider atm. Reminds me of Cadel Evans at times (of course without the TT ability). Very inconsistent and prone to sickness, but he's been very close to a podium in the Giro twice. I didn't vote for him because I don't think it's likely, but he can win a Giro with a poor starting field.

Romain Bardet: needs to focus on different GTs, has all the tools to win a Vuelta in my opinion. Didn't vote for him because being French he'll keep riding the Tour.

Richard Carapaz: interesting case, I this his performance in the Giro was somehow underrated because of his antics. Still very young, considering he turned pro relatively late. I don't think we can assess his overall value yet, very hard to predict.

Richie Porte: the least likely to win a GT among these 10, but it's far from impossible. Should focus on the Vuelta (less pressure, easier route). Don't think it'll happen so I didn't vote for him.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 09:00

Carols wrote:
LaFlorecita wrote:Voted Bernal, Mas, Lopez and Roglic.
I've voted Pinot and Bardet in the past but I don't see it happening anymore with the next generation coming up.


OMG my exact votes! I've given up on all the others.

EDIT: Now that I've read the entire thread it seems those 4 are high on Many lists!

Yeah, the one of your riders with least votes still has more votes than the six other riders combined :D
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18 Sep 2018 09:06

I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.
Singer01
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Re:

18 Sep 2018 09:16

Singer01 wrote:I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.

Lopez is more suited to GT racing and has better results already.

Landa 2015 is long gone, by the way. He's no better than Bardet.
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Re: Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

18 Sep 2018 09:16

There really is a generation change in gt cycling right now. It feels like most of the top tier riders are over 30 and there are a lot of riders who have shown their gt winning potential for the first time this year and will take over soon. Even Yates and Roglic who aren't as young as Lopez, Mas, Carapaz or Bernal weren't really seen as future gt winners prior to this season while the ones who have been seen as the stars of the future a few years back (Bardet, Landa, Pinot, Chaves, Aru, Quintana,...) still haven't managed to overtake the Froome, Nibali, Porte (still hasn't come close to winning a gt but just climbing wise he is probably top 3 in the world), Thomas generation and will probably never win a gt (again in Aru's and Quintana's case). It really feels like the only rider who was in that Landa, Bardet, Quintana generation a few years back and still absolutely delivers is Dumoulin and I can see him staying on top for 6-7 more years.

As most others I picked Bernal (the talent this kid has is unreal) Mas (considering how close to winning he already was this year with 23) and Roglic (riders with a TT as great as his will always have a good shot at winning a TT heavy race at some point). Not sure about Lopez as he hasn't really improved since last year and even last year he wasn't that much better than in 2016. I fear he has peaked early, like many Colombians, and won't make that last step he will probably need to not only get podiums but also wins.
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