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Il Lombardia, 241KM, 13th October (WT)

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09 Oct 2018 16:15

Nobody saw Jungels winning Liege either. But I definitely don’t see him winning Lombardia if he doesn’t have a threat like Alaphilippe covering attacks behind him.
Leinster
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09 Oct 2018 16:59

I see Jungels' win at LBL like Frank Schleck's at Amstel: nobody chased until it was too late because he'd never won a major one day race, so he won. And as a result of the win he's now too high profile to allow space so it'll never happen again.
User avatar GuyIncognito
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Re:

09 Oct 2018 19:42

GuyIncognito wrote:I see Jungels' win at LBL like Frank Schleck's at Amstel: nobody chased until it was too late because he'd never won a major one day race, so he won. And as a result of the win he's now too high profile to allow space so it'll never happen again.

The reason Jungels won was that he was

- super strong
- teammate of Alaphilippe
- nobody was gonna close the gap for Valverde and Alaphilippe

In any case, I think Jungels is simply too weak of a climber to win Il Lombardia.
Veni, Vidi, Kirby

I came, I saw, I was dead wrong as per usual
User avatar Red Rick
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Re: Re:

09 Oct 2018 22:45

Red Rick wrote:
GuyIncognito wrote:I see Jungels' win at LBL like Frank Schleck's at Amstel: nobody chased until it was too late because he'd never won a major one day race, so he won. And as a result of the win he's now too high profile to allow space so it'll never happen again.

The reason Jungels won was that he was

- super strong
- teammate of Alaphilippe
- nobody was gonna close the gap for Valverde and Alaphilippe

In any case, I think Jungels is simply too weak of a climber to win Il Lombardia.


Add one more, Valverde didn't have any teammates left and he couldn't chase because he was cramping before Jungels attacked in the first place. However, I don't see Jungels winning Lombardia. He's not a strong climber and Alaphilippe isn't there. Also there are plenty of strong riders the question is what form is everyone in.
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Re: Il Lombardia, 241KM, 13th October (WT)

09 Oct 2018 23:37

Blah, blah, blah. Valverde under-prepared was really close to participating in a sprint finish today...scary. Tomorrow is a big race, I hope that things go my way, but on Saturday there are so many greats eyeing the big prize: Can Valverde beat them all?

All of these climbs are Valverde territory. Who will have the b@lls to Attack or the patience to let Valverde or his team chase? Today, as usual, too many seem to be happy with a placing, don't go for broke. And they will be reinforced, considering that Pinot did so much work and didn't win.

In that light, only Nibali can beat The Don, if he's on his game. Woods will attack once, Uran one-day-race can attack and will watch and possibly take advantage of inertia, only France can save the World :) .

Valverde is dangerous, if he's not 100%, dig on Sormano, cut his legs off. FDJ will try. The other teams should help, but I see a lot of calculations.
SOLO LA VITTORIA È BELLA
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Re: Il Lombardia, 241KM, 13th October (WT)

09 Oct 2018 23:59

Tonton wrote:Blah, blah, blah. Valverde under-prepared was really close to participating in a sprint finish today...scary. Tomorrow is a big race, I hope that things go my way, but on Saturday there are so many greats eyeing the big prize: Can Valverde beat them all?

All of these climbs are Valverde territory. Who will have the b@lls to Attack or the patience to let Valverde or his team chase? Today, as usual, too many seem to be happy with a placing, don't go for broke. And they will be reinforced, considering that Pinot did so much work and didn't win.

In that light, only Nibali can beat The Don, if he's on his game. Woods will attack once, Uran one-day-race can attack and will watch and possibly take advantage of inertia, only France can save the World :) .

Valverde is dangerous, if he's not 100%, dig on Sormano, cut his legs off. FDJ will try. The other teams should help, but I see a lot of calculations.



Well he's very good at down playing his chances. Interesting I went and looked up his number of race days for this year. Movistar has managed to get him to Lombardia with less than 85 race days. He had less than 80 race days at the Worlds.

Sunday should be interesting. Who's on or near form, who's at the end of what they've got for the season. Until the race starts we really won't know.
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10 Oct 2018 00:06

Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.
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10 Oct 2018 00:22

Woods.

Just looks in great form, and has been knocking on the door for a massive breakthrough one day win.
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 00:55

Broccolidwarf wrote:Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.

Matthews will probably struggle against pure climbers on the Civiglio, he’s probably there to position Oomen on the rolling hills before the real action. Still worth protecting to some extent in case something crazy happens or they race like wimps.

Woods is a real dark horse. If he can come third without support at worlds, he’s capable of winning here with an actual team.
Last edited by 42x16ss on 10 Oct 2018 00:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 00:56

The Hegelian wrote:Woods.

Just looks in great form, and has been knocking on the door for a massive breakthrough one day win.


Yeah you'd think Woods will have to be in the mix at the end. Can't see Jungels winning. Woods or Bardet would be a good result for some consistent performances so far.
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Re: Re:

10 Oct 2018 00:56

42x16ss wrote:
Broccolidwarf wrote:Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.

Matthews will probably struggle against pure climbers on the Civiglio, he’s probably there to position Oomen on the rolling hills before the real action. Still worth taking in case something crazy happens or they race like wimps.

Woods is a real dark horse. If he can come third without support at worlds, he’s capable of winning here with an actual team.

Unfortunately he rides for EF Drapac, sooooo...
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10 Oct 2018 03:17

My list of ratings:
***** Pinot- seems to have the best form, Valverde.
**** Nibali and Woods/Uran who form the strongest duo
*** Moscon, Gaudu, Bardet, Kreuziger, Oomen, Mollema, Costa
**Bernal, Haig, Majka, LLS, Benoot, Wellens, Roglic/Bennet, Mohoric/Izagirre's.
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10 Oct 2018 03:45

Well Valverde is definitely back to doing his best to downplaying his chances. His comments now are basically: Let's see how I can do as I haven't disconnected yet from all the celebrating. However, I also appreciate the comment because it means he did take time to celebrate and enjoy what he just accomplished.
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10 Oct 2018 03:48

Moscon, unfortunately.
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 03:55

Koronin wrote:Well Valverde is definitely back to doing his best to downplaying his chances. His comments now are basically: Let's see how I can do as I haven't disconnected yet from all the celebrating. However, I also appreciate the comment because it means he did take time to celebrate and enjoy what he just accomplished.


If he is feeling good and really want to gamble on Lombardia, he should lose Milano-Torino on purpose in order to make himself a less marked man. But I don't think that is how modern cycling works. :lol:
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Re: Re:

10 Oct 2018 04:02

Velolover2 wrote:
Koronin wrote:Well Valverde is definitely back to doing his best to downplaying his chances. His comments now are basically: Let's see how I can do as I haven't disconnected yet from all the celebrating. However, I also appreciate the comment because it means he did take time to celebrate and enjoy what he just accomplished.


If he is feeling good and really want to gamble on Lombardia, he should lose Milano-Torino on purpose in order to make himself a less marked man. But I don't think that is how modern cycling works. :lol:



That isn't possible for him. If he shows up he's marked. Now he has the rainbow jersey so he can't exactly hide in the peloton very easily. Also you're forgetting his mentality. If he's there he races to win even if his head is still in the clouds. He doesn't know how to race any other way.
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10 Oct 2018 04:30

Uran Uran looked really strong today. He finally gets his win after 3 podiums here.
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 07:30

Broccolidwarf wrote:Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.


Hell even Tre Valli Varesine was too tough for him, let alone Lombardia. He will be slaughtered on Sormano...
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 07:41

Broccolidwarf wrote:Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.

He has won Classic de l'Ardèche.

He basically win one time each year.
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Re:

10 Oct 2018 08:01

Broccolidwarf wrote:Bardet is due for a win, he hasn't won all year, as far as I remember.

Wondering it the route is too tough for Matthews? - He was in stellar form in Canada.

I think you need to watch the profile again. We are talking Muro di Sormano and the Civiglio pass. ;)

It's too tough for better climbers like Kwiatkowski and Ulissi as well.

But yeah, Bardet is my candidate too.
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