Log in:  

Register

Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick, Pricey_sky

Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:04

TI-Raleigh wrote:I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

:confused:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra
Anderis
Member
 
Posts: 1,794
Joined: 10 May 2013 20:16

Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:10

offbyone wrote:I agree with the sentiment that it is unlikely that a top TDF rider will be competitive. Maybe the Vuelta after the Tour is easier than the Tour after the Giro, but it is still a lot to ask. The top TDF riders are likely to end up having a bad day or at least some bad luck. Tough to make it through 2 tours without any major bad luck.
I think weather will be a real factor. If it is super hot, I think it will exacerbate this situation further.


Valverde did it last year. And in 2013. Purito did it in 2013.

I see no reason why these guys, and Nibali, Quintana and Froome (although i have slightly more doubts about his ability to recover) can't do it.
User avatar Arredondo
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,421
Joined: 16 Aug 2013 16:26
Location: Raalte, The Netherlands

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:15

Anderis wrote:
TI-Raleigh wrote:I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

:confused:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra


Nice one.
NairoQ
Junior Member
 
Posts: 246
Joined: 05 Jan 2013 11:43

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:22

NairoQ wrote:
Anderis wrote:
TI-Raleigh wrote:I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

:confused:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra


Nice one.

de facto it's true, by racing logic it does not. the big question is if he would win those stages had he really been a real gc threat.
dacooley
Member
 
Posts: 1,669
Joined: 30 May 2015 15:37

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:33

Arredondo wrote:Valverde did it last year. And in 2013. Purito did it in 2013.

I see no reason why these guys, and Nibali, Quintana and Froome (although i have slightly more doubts about his ability to recover) can't do it.


Of course there is a reason, it is very hard to hit a peak in fitness that lasts for most of a 3 week grand tour twice in 60 days.
offbyone
Member
 
Posts: 535
Joined: 03 May 2010 22:48

Re:

12 Aug 2015 17:39

dusty red roads wrote:What? No Kittel? Anyone know why?


I haven't heard anything official but my guess is, 1. Degenkolb has always done well in the Vuelta and they probably think they are guaranteed at least 2-3 stage wins with him, 2. Most of the stages seem to have some sort of small hill in them near the end...my guess is that Kittel would only end up being competitive in 1 stage. :)
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,539
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

12 Aug 2015 18:07

aha, well that makes perfect sense then, thanks.
dusty red roads
Junior Member
 
Posts: 232
Joined: 21 Mar 2015 09:14

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 18:26

dacooley wrote:
NairoQ wrote:
Anderis wrote:
TI-Raleigh wrote:I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

:confused:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra


Nice one.

de facto it's true, by racing logic it does not. the big question is if he would win those stages had he really been a real gc threat.

yeah but that year contador and froome didnt ride the whole vuelta so they were in better shape than froome and quintana may be this year. Valverde and Purito however are hard to predict, but I have the feeling that they wont be as good this year as they were in the past
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,729
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 18:43

Vuelta official maps and definitive profiles can finally be seen at the official web page.

http://www.lavuelta.com/

That Andorra stage is definetively a big one.
User avatar KyoGrey
Member
 
Posts: 538
Joined: 18 Jun 2015 21:57
Location: España

Re:

12 Aug 2015 18:49

fungusbear wrote:Who will have the best TTT?


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=weof9ir4gC4

If Castroviejo rides they have the upper hand
User avatar No_Balls
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,851
Joined: 30 Jul 2009 15:23

12 Aug 2015 18:55

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.
User avatar sir fly
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,994
Joined: 24 Feb 2014 16:04
Location: 011

Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:20

sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.
User avatar LaFlorecita
Veteran
 
Posts: 30,564
Joined: 15 May 2011 09:53
Location: Utrecht, The Netherlands

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:25

LaFlorecita wrote:
sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?
User avatar sir fly
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,994
Joined: 24 Feb 2014 16:04
Location: 011

12 Aug 2015 19:40

Being competitive is something very different to being in winners form. That's actually what Valverde and Purito (Sastre and Evans before) have also shown in pasts editions.

That's why neither them, Quintana, Nibali and even Froome ain't got no very likely chance to take victory right now.
User avatar staubsauger
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,201
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 18:14

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:41

sir fly wrote:
LaFlorecita wrote:
sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?


I'd do another avatar bet. :) :p
I too don't think he'll do the double.
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,539
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:45

Jspear wrote:
sir fly wrote:
LaFlorecita wrote:
sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?


I'd do another avatar bet. :) :p
I too don't think he'll do the double.

We could make some arrangement, but I'm not sure you'll like it.
User avatar sir fly
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,994
Joined: 24 Feb 2014 16:04
Location: 011

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:48

LaFlorecita wrote:
sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

As Froome has proved, he doesn't have to be consistent for 3 weeks...he won his last grand tour half fit for the last 9 days of it
rick james
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,424
Joined: 02 Sep 2014 13:21
Location: Ecosse

Re: Re:

12 Aug 2015 19:50

sir fly wrote:
Jspear wrote:
sir fly wrote:
LaFlorecita wrote:
sir fly wrote:How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams :D he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?


I'd do another avatar bet. :) :p
I too don't think he'll do the double.

We could make some arrangement, but I'm not sure you'll like it.


I carried the conversation over to the avatar bet thread:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=13868&p=1795318#p1795318
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,539
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 20:40

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,729
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

Re: Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

12 Aug 2015 20:53

Gigs_98 wrote:I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.


http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149995&c=8. It's a cat.1 :)
User avatar BigMac
Veteran
 
Posts: 8,352
Joined: 10 Jun 2013 22:10
Location: Estoril, Portugal

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Tim Booth and 15 guests

Back to top