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Re:

13 Oct 2016 11:55

TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

Don't blame her. May is doing an awful job so far, she can actually win (unlikely though considering falling price of oil. However could manufacturing businesses relocate to an independent Scotland still in the EU?)
Brullnux
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Re: Re:

13 Oct 2016 13:18

Brullnux wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

Don't blame her. May is doing an awful job so far, she can actually win (unlikely though considering falling price of oil. However could manufacturing businesses relocate to an independent Scotland still in the EU?)


That depends on whether Scotland could stay in the EU, or apply to rejoin - given their deficit they technically run they wouldn't fulfil the criteria, although the EU do have a habit of being 'flexible' with those rules.

I'd be surprised if Sturgeon goes through with it - given the state of Scottish finances there would be a great deal on pain if they were independent. In which case the SNP would be finished. And if she loses the referendum then the SNP would also be finished. Interesting times.
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13 Oct 2016 14:27

The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.
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Re:

13 Oct 2016 14:43

King Boonen wrote:The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.


I'm English so I don't have the full picture on this (or the emotional ties) but my view is that Sturgeon should use Brexit to get a better devolution deal from London. That could include having immigration powers for Scotland devolved, more flexible tax and spend powers, Trident moved out (e.g. to Liverpool, Plymouth, Southampton). I'm not sure threatening independence will hold much sway with the non-Scots, or the more senior Conservatives, after all no Scotland = almost permanent Conservative government in England & Wales.
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13 Oct 2016 15:25

The SNP takeover of Westminster seats has pretty much guaranteed that anyway (not blaming them, that's just the way it is). I don't really see what we have to deal with if independence isn't a threat. The legal threat of devolved governments blocking Brexit is about it and that's a pipedream.

I can't see us getting much more in the way of devolved powers. There is a point where Tax has to be tied to the rest of the UK as we share a currency and with the current climate the only way we would get immigration powers devolved is if there was a border set up between Scotland and England.

Trident is a very difficult one, really Scotland would want it eliminated rather than relocated. Relocating it would be very bad for Helensburgh and the surrounding area, a lot of jobs are tied to the base and the removal of the storage facility from Coulport would likely mean that the base at Faslane would close or be severely downsized. Also, I don't think the Trident missiles are actually stored in Coulport. I might be wrong but I'm pretty sure they are only there while the subs are being serviced/docked at Faslane. The actual missile pool is in Georgia.
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Re:

13 Oct 2016 16:28

King Boonen wrote:The SNP takeover of Westminster seats has pretty much guaranteed that anyway (not blaming them, that's just the way it is). I don't really see what we have to deal with if independence isn't a threat. The legal threat of devolved governments blocking Brexit is about it and that's a pipedream.

I can't see us getting much more in the way of devolved powers. There is a point where Tax has to be tied to the rest of the UK as we share a currency and with the current climate the only way we would get immigration powers devolved is if there was a border set up between Scotland and England.

Trident is a very difficult one, really Scotland would want it eliminated rather than relocated. Relocating it would be very bad for Helensburgh and the surrounding area, a lot of jobs are tied to the base and the removal of the storage facility from Coulport would likely mean that the base at Faslane would close or be severely downsized. Also, I don't think the Trident missiles are actually stored in Coulport. I might be wrong but I'm pretty sure they are only there while the subs are being serviced/docked at Faslane. The actual missile pool is in Georgia.


This is one area I think could be made to work relatively easily - the right to live and work in the UK in the future may well end up being visa / permit based (regardless of how easy / hard it will be to get one). I don't see why Scotland couldn't have their own ones (separate or additional) - ie your right to live and work in Scotland would not confer any rights to do the same in England & Wales. Food for thought, and I'm sure Sturgeon has a lot of this covered off and a game plan. I'm not a fan of hers but she is quite a canny politician - she wont call an indy vote unless she is confident of winning, and at the moment the polls don't show that.
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Re:

13 Oct 2016 23:01

TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

How patronising and sexist. Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most powerful women in the world.
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Re:

13 Oct 2016 23:06

King Boonen wrote:The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.

No, Spain have never said they would veto a legally voted independent Scotland, neither have Belgium for that matter, who have similar concerns. What Spain have said is that Brexit is Brexit and wouldn't allow Scotland to negotiate different Brexit terms whilst still part of the UK.
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Re: Re:

14 Oct 2016 11:01

ferryman wrote:
King Boonen wrote:The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.

No, Spain have never said they would veto a legally voted independent Scotland, neither have Belgium for that matter, who have similar concerns. What Spain have said is that Brexit is Brexit and wouldn't allow Scotland to negotiate different Brexit terms whilst still part of the UK.
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Re: Re:

14 Oct 2016 16:25

TheSpud wrote:
Brullnux wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

Don't blame her. May is doing an awful job so far, she can actually win (unlikely though considering falling price of oil. However could manufacturing businesses relocate to an independent Scotland still in the EU?)


That depends on whether Scotland could stay in the EU, or apply to rejoin - given their deficit they technically run they wouldn't fulfil the criteria, although the EU do have a habit of being 'flexible' with those rules.

I'd be surprised if Sturgeon goes through with it - given the state of Scottish finances there would be a great deal on pain if they were independent. In which case the SNP would be finished. And if she loses the referendum then the SNP would also be finished. Interesting times.


I said that assuming that Scotland would stay in the EU. But I don't think the SNP is finished if they lose, the last one didn't stop them.

KB is right saying that Spain and especially PP will not allow Scotland rejoin, because of fear of losing Catalunya or the Basque Country. If Podemos were to form a government then Scotland would be allowed to join or stay, but else they might struggle with Spain.
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Re: Re:

14 Oct 2016 21:09

ferryman wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

How patronising and sexist. Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most powerful women in the world.


Hi Ferryman
Looking back at my comment I would disagree on sexism but agree it could be seen as patronising. I never intended this to be either way, so my apologies. I don't think this thread is the place to debate further if we disagree - but happy to pm, etc. to resolve
Regards
Spud
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Re: Re:

14 Oct 2016 21:18

Brullnux wrote:
TheSpud wrote:
Brullnux wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

Don't blame her. May is doing an awful job so far, she can actually win (unlikely though considering falling price of oil. However could manufacturing businesses relocate to an independent Scotland still in the EU?)


That depends on whether Scotland could stay in the EU, or apply to rejoin - given their deficit they technically run they wouldn't fulfil the criteria, although the EU do have a habit of being 'flexible' with those rules.

I'd be surprised if Sturgeon goes through with it - given the state of Scottish finances there would be a great deal on pain if they were independent. In which case the SNP would be finished. And if she loses the referendum then the SNP would also be finished. Interesting times.


I said that assuming that Scotland would stay in the EU. But I don't think the SNP is finished if they lose, the last one didn't stop them.

KB is right saying that Spain and especially PP will not allow Scotland rejoin, because of fear of losing Catalunya or the Basque Country. If Podemos were to form a government then Scotland would be allowed to join or stay, but else they might struggle with Spain.


Not sure how they can stay in the EU if the UK leaves? On your SNP assessment, I think I agree - a second loss in an Indy Ref would kill off Sturgeons career (she would have to resign in my view). Whether it would kill the SNP though? I think maybe you're right. It didn't last time - in fact it did the exact opposite. Maybe a majority of Scottish people want more autonomy (without Indy) and see the SNP as being able to get it. Certainly I would agree they are the only party who will fight tooth and nail for it.

As an English Southerner my views are elsewhere - but I can see there should be a better settlement for ALL 4 regions : England as well as the other devolved countries.

As I said - interesting times and a great & good debate to be had, hopefully debating the issues and not mud slinging.
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15 Oct 2016 17:42

If the EU sees recognises that Scotland voted a high majority to stay, and considers them as an indepedent country and nation state then it's possible. Especially as they put one over on the rest of the UK, harming them even more.
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Re: Re:

17 Oct 2016 00:37

King Boonen wrote:
ferryman wrote:
King Boonen wrote:The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.

No, Spain have never said they would veto a legally voted independent Scotland, neither have Belgium for that matter, who have similar concerns. What Spain have said is that Brexit is Brexit and wouldn't allow Scotland to negotiate different Brexit terms whilst still part of the UK.

You think wrong then. It's not a problem.
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Re: Re:

17 Oct 2016 00:44

TheSpud wrote:
ferryman wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

How patronising and sexist. Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most powerful women in the world.


Hi Ferryman
Looking back at my comment I would disagree on sexism but agree it could be seen as patronising. I never intended this to be either way, so my apologies. I don't think this thread is the place to debate further if we disagree - but happy to pm, etc. to resolve
Regards
Spud


Hi Spud, no probs. We could pm but i doubt we would get much further. I'm an entrenched Nationalist and doubt our debates would go much further :)
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Re: Re:

17 Oct 2016 09:35

ferryman wrote:
King Boonen wrote:
ferryman wrote:
King Boonen wrote:The biggest obstacle to Scotland remaining part of the EU is Spain, I think we basically have no chance of remaining in the EU if we go independent and I think Spain would veto any attempt of an independent application. Basically, we're going to get screwed by Westminster and were always going to on this point no matter what we did.

No, Spain have never said they would veto a legally voted independent Scotland, neither have Belgium for that matter, who have similar concerns. What Spain have said is that Brexit is Brexit and wouldn't allow Scotland to negotiate different Brexit terms whilst still part of the UK.

You think wrong then. It's not a problem.


I'm sorry, that's utterly ridiculous. It's a massive problem and one that was never properly addressed during the independence referendum.
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Re:

17 Oct 2016 09:42

Brullnux wrote:If the EU sees recognises that Scotland voted a high majority to stay, and considers them as an indepedent country and nation state then it's possible. Especially as they put one over on the rest of the UK, harming them even more.


This implies that the EU is a single body that works together apart from the upity UK. That's very far from the truth though. Spain, Belgium, Italy and France all have problems with separatist movements and will not want to do anything that might encourage them. I'm sure there are other nations with these issues too. There were promises made during the independence referendum, such as keeping the pound, that would not have been possible if Scotland were to join the EU.

Scotland could certainly start the process of joining the EU once it were to become independent, but implications of any ****** application procedure are way off the mark as far as I can see. While EU members may what to embarrass the UK, and rightly so, they also do not want to fuel the fires currently burning in their own nations. Sturgeon is in exactly the same position on the EU as she was during the first vote. She would need actual, real assurances from several EU leaders to swing many peoples minds on this issue, something she and Salmond categorically failed to get last time round.
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Re: Re:

17 Oct 2016 17:58

ferryman wrote:
TheSpud wrote:
ferryman wrote:
TheSpud wrote:I see Auntie Nicola has announced the first step towards another Indy Ref

How patronising and sexist. Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most powerful women in the world.


Hi Ferryman
Looking back at my comment I would disagree on sexism but agree it could be seen as patronising. I never intended this to be either way, so my apologies. I don't think this thread is the place to debate further if we disagree - but happy to pm, etc. to resolve
Regards
Spud


Hi Spud, no probs. We could pm but i doubt we would get much further. I'm an entrenched Nationalist and doubt our debates would go much further :)



Nice one :)

I am interested in your views on independence though. You say you're a committed nationalist, fair enough. But what is your view on whether Scotland could survive financially if independent? I think its well known that under the current funding formula Scotland is running a sizeable deficit (and ok you may dispute that). But North Sea Oil / Gas is on the wane, Scotland has banned fracking so there would be no boom from that, Trident would be removed losing massive jobs & moey flowing. Would Scotland really survive that without massive cuts and/or tax rises?

For me, as a bystander, I would say you'd be mad to go for it - but I absolutely agree that as a defined and internationally recognised nation you have the right to seek independence.
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Re: Re:

18 Oct 2016 09:35

TheSpud wrote:Nice one :)

I am interested in your views on independence though. You say you're a committed nationalist, fair enough. But what is your view on whether Scotland could survive financially if independent? I think its well known that under the current funding formula Scotland is running a sizeable deficit (and ok you may dispute that). But North Sea Oil / Gas is on the wane, Scotland has banned fracking so there would be no boom from that, Trident would be removed losing massive jobs & moey flowing. Would Scotland really survive that without massive cuts and/or tax rises?

For me, as a bystander, I would say you'd be mad to go for it - but I absolutely agree that as a defined and internationally recognised nation you have the right to seek independence.



As an anti-nationalist (but not necessarily anti-independence) I like this kind of discussion so I'll answer too. Feel free to ignore though!

My anti-nationalist stance isn't UK specific, it's a general stance. I dislike nationalism and separatism as I believe that it leads to the things we have been seeing since the Brexit vote. I also wonder where it will end. Once one split has happened what's to say you won't seeing two divided factions in the newly formed territory (this applies to everywhere, not just Scotland. My family is from Yorkshire and I could easily see the north of England pushing for independence/more autonomy in the future. Would we then see an east/west Pennines split? What about London as a city state? It may sound crazy but it really isn't that long ago that places like Dubrovnik, Venice etc. were city/small states centred on a single city and that list is enormous. I think separatism and nationalism breed mis-trust and discourage people from working together. I'm English and while I did not experience any aggression/violence during the Independence referendum I certainly had some fairly derogatory things said to me just because of my accent. I know that went the other way too.



Financially Scotland would survive fine. Likely we would be worse off to start with, I don't really think there can be much question about that but going forward it is much harder to predict and matters hugely on who is in power so is very hard to answer. There are many countries that survive fine who are worse of than Scotland currently would be as an independent nation.

The removal of Trident is a tricky one. As I said before, the missiles come from a US stockpile in Georgia and they are shuttled between Coulport and Aldermaston for refurbishment (as an aside I must admit that the accusations of the UK Government not wanting nuclear weapons near London but being happy to put them near Glasgow really irritated me. Aldermaston is pretty much as close to London as Faslane/Coulport is to Glasgow). I'm unsure if the renewal will mean permanent storage of warheads at Coulport or not. This all means that the location of the submarine base at Faslane was obviously not chosen, primarily, to aid in the logistics of missile servicing/transportation/loading etc. Pretty much anywhere in England would be more easily accessible from Aldermaston when compared to Faslane especially the south coast. I'm assuming that the depth of the lochs and the relative calm of that deep water due to the sheltered nature of sea lochs make it an attractive place to service and base the nuclear submarines. It may also be the distance between the two was a draw too. Removing trident doesn't necessarily change that and it could mean several proposals could be put forward (such as weapons can only be stored there for short periods, no storage but the submarines are still serviced there, only conventional weaponed submarines allowed etc.). It is worth noting that while removal of Trident removes nuclear weapons, the submarines are still nuclear powered so nuclear facilities would have to be maintained if the base were to remain. I also don't know if it's Faslane/Coulport or nowhere for Trident. If it were that would give the Scottish government a much bigger bargaining chip.

Basically it's a massive hot potato however I think it's possible too much is being made of it, I don't think it has a huge contribution to the Scottish economy, although I could be wrong. If it goes it goes and I'm sure Scotland would still survive.



The reason I'm not against independence is because it is fairly obvious Scotland is very poorly represented within the UK government. The Tories couldn't care less and Labour took Scottish support as a given so we are very much left to second best and expected to put up with whatever is decided/given/taken. The EU referendum is a perfect example and possibly the final nail in the coffin for many people here. Maybe Scotland would struggle to get into the EU on its own or maybe it would take several years, but remaining part of the Union means Scotland doesn't even have that choice. My pro-independence arguments have never been financial, I think they are very difficult to make a case for, but it is very easy to make a case on ideological grounds. With each major decision that is made it is clear that the people of Scotland, which includes me (I wish Sturgeon would stop saying the Scottish people), have a very different ideological viewpoint from the people of England and Wales, but Scotland is forced to live with the decisions made by others. That is the one reason that I think could make anyone vote for independence and the EU referendum just made it much, much easier to campaign with.
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18 Oct 2016 09:47

Very good and fair argument :)

I personally would much rather Scotland stay in the UK, but understand why the people of Scotland would want to become independent. I think that Scotland has a real opportunity should it become independent of revitalising their manufacturing, while also expanding their services sector (if they stay in the single market), as well as becoming a real green energy powerhouse. Scotland has incredible potential in that area especially, and it annoys me how no government has ever thought to capitalise on it. Would reduce unemployment and increase exports massively.
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