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05 Oct 2016 14:06

Ubaldo Jimenez instead of Zach Britton!?!?! Showalter is usually a much better tactician than that.
djpbaltimore
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Re: Major League Baseball

05 Oct 2016 23:15

GeorgeCurios wrote:Which team are you guys rooting for this year?
Yay, Cubs, yay!

(Different sport, but a similar pressure is being put on the/my UW Huskies [college football] this season.)

So I just say - don't **** it up too badly! (We're already expecting the worst, because we're just so used to it.)
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06 Oct 2016 12:00

I've been watching baseball for fifty years. I don't think I've ever seen such a dominant big game or post season pitcher as Madison Bumgarner.

Better than Tom Sever, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Nolar Ryan, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson. None threw as well in big games as he has.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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06 Oct 2016 14:10

Glad to see the Orioles mess things up.

Rooting for the curse of the Goat to be in full effect. Please let the curse continue.
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Re:

06 Oct 2016 14:11

Alpe d'Huez wrote:I've been watching baseball for fifty years. I don't think I've ever seen such a dominant big game or post season pitcher as Madison Bumgarner.

Better than Tom Sever, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Nolar Ryan, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson. None threw as well in big games as he has.

Agree.

I can't stand the Giants and the NoCal battery chunking fans but I can recognize a great pitcher in the clutch.
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Re:

06 Oct 2016 17:31

Alpe d'Huez wrote:I've been watching baseball for fifty years. I don't think I've ever seen such a dominant big game or post season pitcher as Madison Bumgarner.

Better than Tom Sever, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Nolar Ryan, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson. None threw as well in big games as he has.


Koufax was more dominant in postseason games, but didn’t play in as many, because at that time it was WS or bust. Schilling’s postseason numbers, over a larger number of innings, are almost as good as Bum’s.

But the real problem with postseason numbers is small sample size. Modern analytics strongly suggests that when players perform better in the postseason than in the regular season, it’s because of random effects. Cliff Lee was considered one of the great postseason pitchers, till he got torched by the Giants in the 2010 WS (and actually, even before that, in the 2009 WS, he gave up a lot of runs in one game but won because his team scored more).

Edit: Not long after I posted this, someone at FG noted this:

If Bumgarner throws another 40 innings at his current postseason pace, he’ll essentially match what Schilling did during his postseason career.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/madison-bumgarner-and-the-crazy-path-to-cooperstown/

Schilling's career postseason ERA is a little higher than MadBum's, but Curt pitched in a stronger offensive era, so his ERA-, which is ERA relative to league average was actually a little better than MB's. Modern analytics does not actually use ERA, but FIP (fielding independent pitching) or RA/9 (basically, all runs average), but for the postseason, which is such a small sample and where league average data are not available, ERA is about the best we have.
Last edited by Merckx index on 06 Oct 2016 19:13, edited 2 times in total.
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06 Oct 2016 17:52

I agree on the sample size, and to an extent random effects, but at face value, I'll still stick with what I said. It's just astounding the way Madbum has pitched. I'm not old enough to remember Koufax, I should state. But I've never seen anyone rise up and dominate in the post season like this. So far anyway.

If you do look through recent history you can find some great pitchers, true HOF pitchers, such as Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson, who did have some impressive post-season outings, and some mediocre ones as well.

Though looking them up, Maddux was 11-14 in the post season, but only a 3.27 ERA. He threw two terrific WS games where he got almost zero run production from the Braves, in 1996 and 1999. A total WS record of 2-3 with just a 2.09 ERA. Johnson was 7-9 in the post season with 4.83 ERA, but 3-0 in his only WS, with a 1.04 ERA. That was after going 2-0 in the NLCS that year and 1.13.

Schilling tops this for consistency at 11-2 in the post season and 4-1 in the WS at 2.06 ERA, including some huge, clutch performances, basically carrying his team when the pressure would have been at it's highest imaginable point. If Curt ever gets in the HOF, this is what it's certainly going to be based on.

Having written all that, I wouldn't quite include Bumgarner (or Schilling) in the same career category as Maddux or Johnson..yet.
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15 Oct 2016 02:25

May I ask what a "walk-off" means, in terms of MLB nowadays?
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15 Oct 2016 02:47

In baseball, a walk-off home run is a home run that ends the game. It must be a home run that gives the home team the lead (and consequently, the win) in the bottom of the final inning of the game. Thus the home team can "walk off" the field immediately afterward, rather than finishing the inning. The winning runs must still be counted at home plate. Because the home team always bats last, any kind of "walk off" scenario, which ends the game, can only be accomplished by the home team.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walk-off_home_run

Doesn't necessarily have to be a home run though, as one could end the game on a double or something.
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15 Oct 2016 13:54

Nice win for the Indians. After they couldn't hit Estrada at all most the night, one great HR does the trick. Blue Jays bats which were so alive against the Rangers, fell silent in Cleveland.

Rooting for the Cubs, and would love to see a Chicago-Cleveland WS. That would end some misery for one team for sure.
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Re: Major League Baseball

15 Oct 2016 15:35

Alpe d'Huez wrote:
Rooting for the Cubs, and would love to see a Chicago-Cleveland WS. That would end some misery for one team for sure.


Really. I don't understand all these highly partisan fans for other teams. I live in the Bay Area, generally enjoy seeing the Giants win, and I was glad they lost to the Cubs. Enough is enough.

The worst, IMO, are Chicago fans of the White Sox who don't want to see the city's other team win, and fans of other NL Central division teams, like the Cardinals, that are rivals of the Cubs. Your team is out, why wouldn't you root for the team that hasn't won a WS in more than a century? Particularly since they were clearly the best team in the regular season, which is a far better indicator of a team's strength than winning a short series, where chance plays a huge role. The logic seems to be that after the Red Sox finally ended their curse, their fans became insufferable (supposedly), and people are concerned that Cubs fans will be the same.

Some of the most famous walkoff HR in MLB history:

1) Bobby Thomson’s “The Shot Heard Around the World”, 9th inning 3-run HR to give the Giants the NL pennant over the Dodgers in 1951
2) Bill Mazeroski’s 9th inning HR to win the World Series for the Pirates over the Yankees in 1960
3) Carlton Fisk’s HR in the 12th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for Boston over Cincinnati in 1975
4) Chris Chambliss’ HR in the 9th inning to win the AL pennant for the Yankees over the Royals in 1976
5) Kirby Puckett’s 11th inning HR to win the 6th game of the WS for Minnesota over Atlanta in 1991
6) Joe Carter’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the World Series for Toronto over Philadelphia in 1993
7) Aaron Boone’s HR in the 11th inning to give the Yankees the AL pennant over the Red Sox in 2003
8) Magglio Ordonez’s 3-run HR in the 9th to win the AL pennant for Detroit over Oakland in 2006
9) David Freese’s HR in the 11th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for St. Louis over Texas in 2011
10) Travis Ishikawa’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the NL pennant for the Giants over the Cardinals in 2014

These are arguably the most important ones, because all of them either won a WS (2,6) or a pennant (1,4,7,8,10), or prevented the player’s team from losing a WS (3,5,9). In sabermetric lingo, they were all hit in extremely high leverage situations, where what a batter does will have a major impact on the outcome of the game, and in these cases, the outcome of a championship series. Mazeroski’s was particularly important, as it’s the only time a walkoff HR has come in the seventh game of the WS, where it determined the Series winner immediately. Carter’s HR brought Toronto from behind in the game to win the game and the Series, so as far as that game was concerned, it was a little more dramatic. But if he had not hit it, Toronto still would have had a chance to win the Series in Game 7.

Interestingly, though, the highest leverage HR was not any of these. The Pirates’ Hal Smith hit a 3-run HR in the 8th inning of the same Game 7 of the 1960 WS that was won by Mazeroski’s HR in the ninth. When Mazeroski came to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the score was tied, and since the Yankees had already come to bat in the top half, the Pirates were slight favorites to win at that point. Mazeroski’s HR thus increased the odds from a little over 50% to 100%. But when Smith came to bat in the eighth, the Pirates were trailing with two outs and favored to lose; his HR put them ahead, and made them heavy favorites to win. It turned out to be a bigger swing in win probability than resulted from Mazeroski’s HR.

Yet even that was not the highest leverage situation in MLB championship history. Two years later, in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the1962 WS, Willie McCovey came to bat with the tying run on third and winning run on second and two outs. His line drive out decided the Series for the Yankees; had it been a hit, the Giants almost certainly would have won, at the least would have tied the game and been favored to win.

Edit: Toronto won 1993 WS over Philadelphia and Wild Thing, not Atlanta.
Last edited by Merckx index on 15 Oct 2016 20:52, edited 3 times in total.
Merckx index
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Re: Major League Baseball

15 Oct 2016 17:21

Merckx index wrote:
Alpe d'Huez wrote:
Rooting for the Cubs, and would love to see a Chicago-Cleveland WS. That would end some misery for one team for sure.


Really. I don't understand all these highly partisan fans for other teams. I live in the Bay Area, generally enjoy seeing the Giants win, and I was glad they lost to the Cubs. Enough is enough.

The worst, IMO, are Chicago fans of the White Sox who don't want to see the city's other team win, and fans of other NL Central division teams, like the Cardinals, that are rivals of the Cubs. Your team is out, why wouldn't you root for the team that hasn't won a WS in more than a century? Particularly since they were clearly the best team in the regular season, which is a far better indicator of a team's strength than winning a short series, where chance plays a huge role. The logic seems to be that after the Red Sox finally ended their curse, their fans became insufferable (supposedly), and people are concerned that Cubs fans will be the same.

Some of the most famous walkoff HR in MLB history:

1) Bobby Thomson’s “The Shot Heard Around the World”, 9th inning 3-run HR to give the Giants the NL pennant over the Dodgers in 1951
2) Bill Mazeroski’s 9th inning HR to win the World Series for the Pirates over the Yankees in 1960
3) Carlton Fisk’s HR in the 12th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for Boston over Cincinnati in 1975
4) Chris Chambliss’ HR in the 9th inning to win the AL pennant for the Yankees over the Royals in 1976
5) Kirby Puckett’s 10th inning HR to win the 6th game of the WS for Minnesota over Atlanta in 1991
6) Joe Carter’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the World Series for Toronto over Atlanta in 1993
7) Aaron Boone’s HR in the 11th inning to give the Yankees the AL pennant over the Red Sox in 2003
8) Magglio Ordonez’s 3-run HR in the 9th to win the AL pennant for Detroit over Oakland in 2006
9) David Freese’s HR in the 11th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for St. Louis over Texas in 2011
10) Travis Ishikawa’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the NL pennant for the Giants over the Cardinals in 2014

These are arguably the most important ones, because all of them either won a WS (2,6) or a pennant (1,4,7,8,10), or prevented the player’s team from losing a WS (3,5,9). In sabermetric lingo, they were all hit in extremely high leverage situations, where what a batter does will have a major impact on the outcome of the game, and in these cases, the outcome of a championship series. Mazeroski’s was particularly important, as it’s the only time a walkoff HR has come in the seventh game of the WS, where it determined the Series winner immediately. Carter’s HR brought Toronto from behind in the game to win the game and the Series, so as far as that game was concerned, it was a little more dramatic. But if he had not hit it, Toronto still would have had a chance to win the Series in Game 7.

Interestingly, though, the highest leverage HR was not any of these. The Pirates’ Hal Smith hit a 3-run HR in the 8th inning of the same Game 7 of the 1960 WS that was won by Mazeroski’s HR in the ninth. When Mazeroski came to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the score was tied, and since the Yankees had already come to bat in the top half, the Pirates were slight favorites to win at that point. Mazeroski’s HR thus increased the odds from a little over 50% to 100%. But when Smith came to bat in the eighth, the Pirates were trailing with two outs and favored to lose; his HR put them ahead, and made them heavy favorites to win. It turned out to be a bigger swing in win probability than resulted from Mazeroski’s HR.

Yet even that was not the highest leverage situation in MLB championship history. Two years later, in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the1962 WS, Willie McCovey came to bat with the tying run on third and winning run on second and two outs. His line drive out decided the Series for the Yankees; had it been a hit, the Giants almost certainly would have won, at the least would have tied the game and been favored to win.

Wasn't this over the Phillies? Mitch Williams to be precise.
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Re: Major League Baseball

16 Oct 2016 20:35

Sciocco wrote:
Merckx index wrote:
Alpe d'Huez wrote:
Rooting for the Cubs, and would love to see a Chicago-Cleveland WS. That would end some misery for one team for sure.


Really. I don't understand all these highly partisan fans for other teams. I live in the Bay Area, generally enjoy seeing the Giants win, and I was glad they lost to the Cubs. Enough is enough.

The worst, IMO, are Chicago fans of the White Sox who don't want to see the city's other team win, and fans of other NL Central division teams, like the Cardinals, that are rivals of the Cubs. Your team is out, why wouldn't you root for the team that hasn't won a WS in more than a century? Particularly since they were clearly the best team in the regular season, which is a far better indicator of a team's strength than winning a short series, where chance plays a huge role. The logic seems to be that after the Red Sox finally ended their curse, their fans became insufferable (supposedly), and people are concerned that Cubs fans will be the same.

Some of the most famous walkoff HR in MLB history:

1) Bobby Thomson’s “The Shot Heard Around the World”, 9th inning 3-run HR to give the Giants the NL pennant over the Dodgers in 1951
2) Bill Mazeroski’s 9th inning HR to win the World Series for the Pirates over the Yankees in 1960
3) Carlton Fisk’s HR in the 12th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for Boston over Cincinnati in 1975
4) Chris Chambliss’ HR in the 9th inning to win the AL pennant for the Yankees over the Royals in 1976
5) Kirby Puckett’s 10th inning HR to win the 6th game of the WS for Minnesota over Atlanta in 1991
6) Joe Carter’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the World Series for Toronto over Atlanta in 1993
7) Aaron Boone’s HR in the 11th inning to give the Yankees the AL pennant over the Red Sox in 2003
8) Magglio Ordonez’s 3-run HR in the 9th to win the AL pennant for Detroit over Oakland in 2006
9) David Freese’s HR in the 11th inning to win the 6th game of the WS for St. Louis over Texas in 2011
10) Travis Ishikawa’s 3-run HR in the 9th inning to win the NL pennant for the Giants over the Cardinals in 2014

These are arguably the most important ones, because all of them either won a WS (2,6) or a pennant (1,4,7,8,10), or prevented the player’s team from losing a WS (3,5,9). In sabermetric lingo, they were all hit in extremely high leverage situations, where what a batter does will have a major impact on the outcome of the game, and in these cases, the outcome of a championship series. Mazeroski’s was particularly important, as it’s the only time a walkoff HR has come in the seventh game of the WS, where it determined the Series winner immediately. Carter’s HR brought Toronto from behind in the game to win the game and the Series, so as far as that game was concerned, it was a little more dramatic. But if he had not hit it, Toronto still would have had a chance to win the Series in Game 7.

Interestingly, though, the highest leverage HR was not any of these. The Pirates’ Hal Smith hit a 3-run HR in the 8th inning of the same Game 7 of the 1960 WS that was won by Mazeroski’s HR in the ninth. When Mazeroski came to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the score was tied, and since the Yankees had already come to bat in the top half, the Pirates were slight favorites to win at that point. Mazeroski’s HR thus increased the odds from a little over 50% to 100%. But when Smith came to bat in the eighth, the Pirates were trailing with two outs and favored to lose; his HR put them ahead, and made them heavy favorites to win. It turned out to be a bigger swing in win probability than resulted from Mazeroski’s HR.

Yet even that was not the highest leverage situation in MLB championship history. Two years later, in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the1962 WS, Willie McCovey came to bat with the tying run on third and winning run on second and two outs. His line drive out decided the Series for the Yankees; had it been a hit, the Giants almost certainly would have won, at the least would have tied the game and been favored to win.

Wasn't this over the Phillies? Mitch Williams to be precise.


Yes, it was. Good eye.
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17 Oct 2016 14:39

Are the Padres good yet..?
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Re: Major League Baseball

17 Oct 2016 15:54

Merckx index wrote:Some of the most famous walkoff HR in MLB history:

No mention of Kirk Gibson's walk-off to end Game 1 of the 1988 World Series? Gibson was so injured he was not even in the game until that pinch hit, and in fact didn't play another game in the series. He could barely hobble around the bases after the HR. The A's were favored that series, and in the lead with Dennis Eckersley who was lights out at that time pitching. Gibson's HR was so dramatic, it not only won the game, it completely crushed the A's morale as a team for the rest of the series, and the Dodgers won in 5 games.

By the time Kirk Gibson reached his locker, bullpen coach Mark Cresse had written "R. HOBBS" on a piece of paper and taped it over Gibson's nameplate.

Legend indeed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U157X0jy5iw

I should note, I'm an A's fan, and both at the time, and even to this day am amazed by Gibson's at bat.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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Re: Major League Baseball

19 Oct 2016 02:52

Alpe d'Huez wrote:
No mention of Kirk Gibson's walk-off to end Game 1 of the 1988 World Series? Gibson was so injured he was not even in the game until that pinch hit, and in fact didn't play another game in the series. He could barely hobble around the bases after the HR. The A's were favored that series, and in the lead with Dennis Eckersley who was lights out at that time pitching. Gibson's HR was so dramatic, it not only won the game, it completely crushed the A's morale as a team for the rest of the series, and the Dodgers won in 5 games.

By the time Kirk Gibson reached his locker, bullpen coach Mark Cresse had written "R. HOBBS" on a piece of paper and taped it over Gibson's nameplate.

Legend indeed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U157X0jy5iw

I should note, I'm an A's fan, and both at the time, and even to this day am amazed by Gibson's at bat.


It was famous, sure, and I'm not going to deny anyone what he finds personally to be most meaningful, but the ten I singled out were by leverage. Gibson’s HR did not win a pennant or WS, nor did it stave off elimination in the WS. It just improved the Dodgers’ chances of winning the WS. It put the A’s in an especially bad hole, because they had to face Hershiser the next day, and indeed, they lost again.

But I don’t buy the crushed morale notion, I think that’s greatly overrated. Teams bounce back from crushing defeats all the time. The Reds won Game 7 after that Fisk HR in Game 6. Mickey Mantle won Game 3 of the 1964 WS with a walkoff, but the Cards still won the series. Derek Jeter won Game 4 of the 2001 WS with a walkoff HR, and that came in extra innings after the Yankees had tied the game in the ninth with a 2-run HR. That was a devastating defeat for the D’Backs, who had thoroughly out-pitched and out-hit the Yankees till then. Then the Yankees did the same thing the next night, tying the game in the ninth with a 2-run HR, and winning in extra innings. But the D’Backs still came back to win that series.

In fact, Gibson’s walkoff HR in the 1988 WS was not the only one. McGwire won Game 3 for the A’s the same way.

There’s no crying in baseball, and there’s no clutch and no momentum, either. It's all about probabilities, which makes determining a champion by a short series, let alone several of them as it's done now, such a sham.
Merckx index
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19 Oct 2016 12:17

Maybe so, but it's still historic and part of baseball lore.

Meanwhile, Cubs need to find a way to hit the ball.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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19 Oct 2016 22:17

Come on, Cubbies, just find a way to win tonight!

Pretty please? :(
User avatar Tricycle Rider
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Re:

19 Oct 2016 22:37

Tricycle Rider wrote:Come on, Cubbies, just find a way to win tonight!

Pretty please? :(



It goes without saying, the Cubbies are in trouble if they don't win tonight. In my opinion, not only do they have to win, but a low scoring affair will not do them favors. Their offense needs to wake up. Of course anything is still possible, even going down 3-1 as this year's team has shown some real grit and they may have 2004 Red Sox destiny-like symptoms, but the last two games have been ugly, no doubt about it.
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20 Oct 2016 12:23

Nice win for the Cubs.
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