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The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Re: Re:

06 Jan 2017 14:28

DFA123 wrote:
Jancouver wrote:
DFA123 wrote:I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.


I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.


Fair enough, I kind of see the logic. I rate both very highly as riders as well, and Gaviria especially looks destined to be an absolute star in the next few years. But I'm still not convinced that either will come close to doubling their points. With Orica focusing much more on GC - with three potential challengers for stage races (possibly four with Kreuziger) it's difficult to see Ewan getting much support in the big races. Gaviria undoubtedly has some big wins in him, but I'd be concerned about the consistency and opportunities, particularly as he's not the number one sprinter, and is far from the number one classics rider on his team. I think there is much more limited opportunities for him to have a true break-out year like Sagan did, because of the team he's riding for.

Also, my question was more generally, that if Ewan and Gaviria gain an extra 1000+ points between them; who will they be taking those points from? The only sprinters I can see losing significant points from last season are Nizzolo, Cobrelli, Coquard and Sagan. But even that's not guaranteed, with the first three all capable of hoovering up a lot of points in their domestic races where Ewan and Gaviria won't be so prolific. The other sprinters to me look like they should get at least the same as last year; with some like Degenkolb, Viviani and Bouhanni possibly getting a lot more. I'm just sceptical that there are enough points to go around with so many quality sprinters that Ewan and Gaviria can make such big gains this season.


I can see Groenewegen, Demare and Kittel all losing point,

The one thing that does go against sprinters is the loss of the tour of Qatar, where they wont have the GC points
del1962
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Re:

06 Jan 2017 15:18

DFA123 wrote:I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.


It doesn't really work that way. CQ ranking is not a zero-sum equation for the top sprinters. There are enough races and points on offer for all the sprinters to have a good year.

I picked Gaviria for a number of reasons, and I'm convinced he's a great pick. He could have scored double the amount of points already last season if he wasn't unlucky (MSR, injured for Frankfurt + May races, track focus, crashing out of worlds). With Boonen gone after P-R and Meersman already gone, Gaviria will be the go-to guy for so many races. He's super consistent and competitive from January until October, and Quickstep rides so so many lucrative one-day races where Gaviria will be the leader, especially with no Boonen and Meersman. Additionally, he has got probably the world's best leadout man in Richeze, there are several new WT hardman sprinter's races and the worlds course suits him perfectly. Barring injury, anyhing less than 1800 points will disappoint me hugely.


Some interesting thoughts here. My comments in bold.

LaFlorecita wrote:Haas 315
I must admit I hadn't even considered him. I went for Navardauskas instead, I feel they are similar riders with a similar points ceiling, they pick up decently sized batches of points here and there in hilly races, and they are also similarly priced. I can definitely understand your pick from an Aussie perspective. It will be interesting to see which one of them ends up the better pick.

If I wanted an Ardennes guy in this price range, I'd have gone with Jay McCarthy instead. Haas has had enough chances to convince, and Navardauskas has stated he'll be Nibali's bodyguard throughout the year.

Tsatevich 228
I really like this pick! Both the rider and the inclusion in your team, I mean. Very interesting sprinter who could pick up a load of points in smaller races. Without Kristoff to worry about he might also have more freedom. I actually never considered him but think he could turn out great!

I like the thinking here (and I've made several picks because of similar reasons), but I think maybe Porsev could be the better Gazprom pick. Tsatevich is a bit hit and miss, while they've stated that Porsev will be their main guy. Tsatevich is of course a bit more versatile.

[...]

Schachmann 101
I feel good TTers (along with Italian sprinters) are the best neo pros to bet on, they often get their chance to shine because team hierarchy isn't as important in TTs and there are several smaller stage races in which a short time trial is decisive. So in that regard, he could definitely be a good pick. However, there are so many similar riders on QuickStep; good TTers with a huge engine; that I fear he'll get lost and be sacrificed even when he has a chance to get a good result. They do appear to have a good feeling about developing these riders, though.

In a previous post, I wrote why I think TTers are especially bad picks this year. I guess young TTers are more likely to have solid seasons and make a safe improvement, but the ones with the crazy explosions in CQ points are sprinters and puncheurs (and sometimes there's a Formolo too).

Mas 92
Normally I am not too fond of neo pro climbers, but I couldn't leave him out. I know Contador rates him very highly and I also feel he has huge potential. QuickStep could be a great team for him as there aren't many climbers ahead of him in the pecking order, I only see Dan Martin, Alaphilippe and Brambilla and call me crazy, but I'm not even sure I'd rate the latter two above him purely based on climbing potential. Also, this may sound very weird but because Alberto rates him so highly and Enric is managed by Alberto's brother, I think QuickStep might feel some sort of obligation to give him ample opportunity to prove his worth. It certainly seems as though there is some sort of deal in place between the Fundación Contador U23 team and the QuickStep managing board, possibly established during the time Specialized sponsored both teams. 3 of their riders moved up to the Etixx feeder team in the past (which now no longer exists), the team trained in Belgium with some Etixx riders in the past and another rider, Diego Sevilla, has been invited to QuickStep's training camp next week. It certainly seems like an odd connection between a Spanish youth squad and a Belgian/Czech outfit mainly focused on classics.
Of course, I may be greatly overrating him and in that case, I should probably apologize for at least part of the hype surrounding him :p I'm definitely curious to see how he fares at the TDU. I don't expect him to finish high up on the GC as it is his first WT race, but it would be a very good sign if he could finish with the better climbers on the more difficult stages.


I had less complicated reasons for picking Mas. :) He was the best U23 climber together with Gaudu, young enough so that he's not winning just because of having developed more, and I can sense a Formolo debut season coming. He has said he'll be in good shape for the early season Spanish races, and his TDU participation goes along well with that. Quickstep should also offer decent chances. I kind of hedged my bets by picking De Plus too. At least one of them should hopefully have a 500 point season.
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06 Jan 2017 15:26

Gaviria can grab points from these guys:

the top losers highlighted in red. I left Piti & GVA there on purpose as they also have a fast legs and like to sprint on every reduced bunch sprint. Gaviria may be able to challenge some of their points (obviously not those real climbing races where Piti shines)

1. (1) SVK SAGAN Peter BOH 26/01/1990 3307
4. (4) BEL VAN AVERMAET Greg BMC 17/05/1985 2279
5. (5) ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro MOV 25/04/1980 2130
6. (6) NOR KRISTOFF Alexander KAT 05/07/1987 1961
10. (10) ITA NIZZOLO Giacomo TFS 30/01/1989 1511
11. (11) FRA COQUARD Bryan DEN 25/04/1992 1355
12. (12) NOR BOASSON HAGEN Edvald DDD 17/05/1987 1348
16. (16) GBR CAVENDISH Mark DDD 21/05/1985 1251
17. (17) ITA COLBRELLI Sonny TBM 17/05/1990 1239
20. (20) GER KITTEL Marcel QST 11/05/1988 1198
22. (22) NED GROENEWEGEN Dylan TLJ 21/06/1993 1160
27. (27) BEL PLANCKAERT Baptiste KAT 28/09/1988 1074

28. (28) GER GREIPEL André LTS 16/07/1982 1071
31. (31) FRA DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 980
User avatar Jancouver
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Re: The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

06 Jan 2017 19:10

I've done a couple of fixes on incorrectly entered teams. One was a response to a PM and the other I saw MADRAZO post on the thread. If you notice any issues, please PM me as I can't guarantee I'll see all the thread posts.
skidmark
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 00:37

DFA123 wrote:I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.


I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

On the other hand, I'm not convinced Ewan's all that. I found his first two seasons pretty underwhelming for a guy that was billed as the next big thing in term of sprinting. Don't get me wrong, he's obviously fast but he doesn't seem like he has the stamina to be a factor at the end of classic/WT stages (at least not yet) and that puts a serious ceiling on his scoring ability. Maybe this is the year he makes that jump (he's still so young after all, it's not unrealistic), maybe he still need a couple more years of seasoning before he can compete with the big guys on a consistent basis on the WT (I tend to think it's the latter). He's already shown he can feast on lesser competition if the race isn't too hard so as long his program includes a few .1/.HC, he'll easily beat his 2016 score but I have a tough time seeing him getting more than 1000 points (more like 700-800 I think).
User avatar EvansIsTheBest
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07 Jan 2017 08:20

I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls
Hakkie2
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 08:41

EvansIsTheBest wrote:
DFA123 wrote:I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.


I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

Some good points here; and I agree with nearly all of it. I just think that he is not quite there yet, and maybe will need one or two more seasons before he reaches his full potential. I read that he's riding his first GT this season (Giro). That's a tough ask for any 22 year old if he plans to finish it; and it will be interesting to see a) how he does in that race, and b) how it affects his form for the rest of the season.

Also, with this being the last season for Boonen and with Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert, Vakoc and Jungels all around - I'm a bit sceptical about how many chances he'll get in the classics. Also last year, he had no serious injury setbacks and no training problems - it's not a situation like with Degenkolb where he just has to stay on the bike for the year to double his points - he's actually got to improve his performances.

Combined with the high number of quality sprinters around now, I was thinking he would do well to get 1,200+
But you could be right, he's going to have a massive breakthrough year sometime soon, where he consistently challenges in the big races. Personally I think it will be 2018 or 2019, but there's certainly a chance it could be this year.

Jancouver wrote:Gaviria can grab points from these guys:

the top losers highlighted in red. I left Piti & GVA there on purpose as they also have a fast legs and like to sprint on every reduced bunch sprint. Gaviria may be able to challenge some of their points (obviously not those real climbing races where Piti shines)

1. (1) SVK SAGAN Peter BOH 26/01/1990 3307
4. (4) BEL VAN AVERMAET Greg BMC 17/05/1985 2279
5. (5) ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro MOV 25/04/1980 2130
6. (6) NOR KRISTOFF Alexander KAT 05/07/1987 1961
10. (10) ITA NIZZOLO Giacomo TFS 30/01/1989 1511
11. (11) FRA COQUARD Bryan DEN 25/04/1992 1355
12. (12) NOR BOASSON HAGEN Edvald DDD 17/05/1987 1348
16. (16) GBR CAVENDISH Mark DDD 21/05/1985 1251
17. (17) ITA COLBRELLI Sonny TBM 17/05/1990 1239
20. (20) GER KITTEL Marcel QST 11/05/1988 1198
22. (22) NED GROENEWEGEN Dylan TLJ 21/06/1993 1160
27. (27) BEL PLANCKAERT Baptiste KAT 28/09/1988 1074

28. (28) GER GREIPEL André LTS 16/07/1982 1071
31. (31) FRA DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 980


Agreed that some of those could lose points (would certainly include Sagan in red as well), but I'm sure some of them will improve as well. And Degenkolb will be taking a big share of any surplus points. Plus Bouhanni, and the hoard of Italian sprinters who all underperformed last season.
User avatar DFA123
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 09:30

Hakkie2 wrote:I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls


I did not expect to see Aru in this list. He was in my opinion one of the easiest riders to pick.
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 10:04

DFA123 wrote:
EvansIsTheBest wrote:
DFA123 wrote:I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.


I find it odd to say that with Cav will be better this year since he's 100% focused on the road, but not mention that Gaviria did both the olympics and the world championships on track. Gaviria has the top end speed to rival any sprinter in the world and, in my opinion, he's the best prospect for the classics this side of Tom Boonen. He crashed out of 100-280pts at MSR and missed more than two months with the Olympics, so he's already way better than his score indicates. He knows how to win, his team is loaded and has a long history of success at the races he's targeting, so if he's reasonably healthy I just can't see how he doesn't blow his 2016 score out of the water. Definitely one of the easiest selection I made this year.

Some good points here; and I agree with nearly all of it. I just think that he is not quite there yet, and maybe will need one or two more seasons before he reaches his full potential. I read that he's riding his first GT this season (Giro). That's a tough ask for any 22 year old if he plans to finish it; and it will be interesting to see a) how he does in that race, and b) how it affects his form for the rest of the season.

Also, with this being the last season for Boonen and with Terpstra, Stybar, Lampaert, Vakoc and Jungels all around - I'm a bit sceptical about how many chances he'll get in the classics. Also last year, he had no serious injury setbacks and no training problems - it's not a situation like with Degenkolb where he just has to stay on the bike for the year to double his points - he's actually got to improve his performances.

Combined with the high number of quality sprinters around now, I was thinking he would do well to get 1,200+
But you could be right, he's going to have a massive breakthrough year sometime soon, where he consistently challenges in the big races. Personally I think it will be 2018 or 2019, but there's certainly a chance it could be this year.


He had an injury and missed 1-2 months of racing + he focused on track, so even if he doesn't improve he will easily beat his score of last year. Plus I think a lot of people underestimate his position in the team, if you watched quickstep races last season you would know he already was one of their leaders everytime they raced. Gaviria is probably going to be their leader in most of the cobbled classics except RVV and PR this year because he can get over cobbles and is their fastest man. It's not like he has to fight for leadership with Stybar or Terpstra - he doesn't have to attack, just wait for the last 20 km and if he's still there, quickstep will try to bring him to the finish.
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 10:17

Hakkie2 wrote:I compared all of our selections against the selections of 10 well-established players (players who are either top-10 all-time ranking, top-10 average ranking, top-5 in 2016, or winner of a small CQ-game in 2016).

Based on that comparison, I was able to make 2 small rankings:

Over-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did not select, but 'average' players did)

1) Caleb Ewan
2) Edoardo Zardini
3) Pierre Rolland
4) Silvan Dillier
5) Miguel Angel Lopez Moreno

Under-popularity ranking (riders that 'top' players did select, but 'average' players did not)

1) Boris Vallee
2) Riccardo Minali
3) Tiago Machado
4) Mike Teunissen
5) Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
6) Michal Kwiatkowski
7) Danny Van Poppel
8) Simone Ponzi
9) Fabio Aru
10) Rafael Valls

Interesting. Which players' teams did you use for comparison?

This reminds me of a rider I forgot to comment on: Lopez. He was in my initial selection, but then he got his injury which will sideline him for some time and definitely affect his season and then I came to the conclusion that I had to dismiss him (and him riding the Tour isn't a good thing either imo). I'm interesting in hearing some thoughts on him from some of the players that did end up picking him.
User avatar Hugo Koblet
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 12:24

Vroome.exe wrote:
He had an injury and missed 1-2 months of racing + he focused on track, so even if he doesn't improve he will easily beat his score of last year. Plus I think a lot of people underestimate his position in the team, if you watched quickstep races last season you would know he already was one of their leaders everytime they raced. Gaviria is probably going to be their leader in most of the cobbled classics except RVV and PR this year because he can get over cobbles and is their fastest man. It's not like he has to fight for leadership with Stybar or Terpstra - he doesn't have to attack, just wait for the last 20 km and if he's still there, quickstep will try to bring him to the finish.

I take your point, but I'm not sure that it's so straight forward that he will race more and get a load more points. He had I think 45 racing days last year - which for a 21/22 year old riding specializing in hard classics is already quite a lot. Say he manages to do 50-55 days this year, he'll have to match his results from last year and be pretty much top sprinter in the Giro to even improve by 300 hundred or so points. To come close to doubling his score he has to match his results from last year, be one of the best sprinters in the Giro, top 10 in a couple of monuments and do something at the worlds. He's got the talent to make it possible, but I think it's too early for him to reach that kind of consistency.
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 12:56

[quote="]Hugo KobletInteresting. Which players' teams did you use for comparison?[/quote]

In alphabetical order:

Abbulf (3rd CQ game 2016)
GeraintTooFast (best average placing CQ game 2010-2016)
Jeroenk (runner-up CQ game 2016)
Kazistuta (2nd overall CQ game 2010-2016)
Ludwigzgz (winner Emerging Riders CQ game 2014-2016)
Skidmark (winner CQ game 2016)
Squire (4th CQ game 2016)
Togo95 (5th CQ game 2016)
Vladimir (combined winner Classics+Giro+Tour+Vuelta CQ game 2016)
Wallenquist (winner Youth CQ game 2016)
Hakkie2
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Joined: 02 Feb 2015 16:48

07 Jan 2017 13:07

Lots of people here seem to think riders have to double their 2016 score in order to be good picks.
That's not true. It's more that riders have to add 250 points to their 2016 score in order to be good picks.

Malori costs 2 CQ. He needs to score 252 CQ, not 4 CQ, to be a good pick.
Ewan costs 552 CQ. He needs to score 802 CQ, not 1104 CQ, to be a good pick.

At least, that's how I picked my team ;-)
Hakkie2
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 14:00

Hakkie2 wrote:Lots of people here seem to think riders have to double their 2016 score in order to be good picks.
That's not true. It's more that riders have to add 250 points to their 2016 score in order to be good picks.

Malori costs 2 CQ. He needs to score 252 CQ, not 4 CQ, to be a good pick.
Ewan costs 552 CQ. He needs to score 802 CQ, not 1104 CQ, to be a good pick.

At least, that's how I picked my team ;-)

I disagree, it's all about percentages. Many very cheap picks don't even really have the potential to make 250 points. Malori is simply an exception. Meanwhile I'd be disappointed if degenkolb makes only 250 points more than last year.
User avatar Gigs_98
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 14:03

Hakkie2 wrote:Lots of people here seem to think riders have to double their 2016 score in order to be good picks.
That's not true. It's more that riders have to add 250 points to their 2016 score in order to be good picks.

Malori costs 2 CQ. He needs to score 252 CQ, not 4 CQ, to be a good pick.
Ewan costs 552 CQ. He needs to score 802 CQ, not 1104 CQ, to be a good pick.

At least, that's how I picked my team ;-)


Not a good formula because if you have 33 cheap riders each scoring 250 points, you may not even hit 10K.

Would you pick Sagan if he could score extra 250 points?

Your formula would only work if each of your riders scored at least 477 points. That's why I always ask myself if the rider can double his points. If not, he is out ... unless he is one of the few I just want to have on my team regardless :D
User avatar Jancouver
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07 Jan 2017 14:18

Expensive riders don't have to double their score as long as some of your cheaper riders triple or quadruple their score.
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: Re:

07 Jan 2017 14:24

Jancouver wrote:
Hakkie2 wrote:Lots of people here seem to think riders have to double their 2016 score in order to be good picks.
That's not true. It's more that riders have to add 250 points to their 2016 score in order to be good picks.

Malori costs 2 CQ. He needs to score 252 CQ, not 4 CQ, to be a good pick.
Ewan costs 552 CQ. He needs to score 802 CQ, not 1104 CQ, to be a good pick.

At least, that's how I picked my team ;-)


Not a good formula because if you have 33 cheap riders each scoring 250 points, you may not even hit 10K.

Of course for the idea to work your team has to be at least close to the budget, but how many people send in a team that is several hundred points below budget?
If you spend 7500 on 33 riders and all 33 score 250 points more, you'll have 15,750 points and that's normally more than enough to score a really good result.

Would you pick Sagan if he could score extra 250 points?

If you can find 32 riders for 4200 points who will all score 250 points more than their original cost, why not? In the end it doesn't matter.
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 14:34

Hakkie2 wrote:Lots of people here seem to think riders have to double their 2016 score in order to be good picks.
That's not true. It's more that riders have to add 250 points to their 2016 score in order to be good picks.

Malori costs 2 CQ. He needs to score 252 CQ, not 4 CQ, to be a good pick.
Ewan costs 552 CQ. He needs to score 802 CQ, not 1104 CQ, to be a good pick.

At least, that's how I picked my team ;-)


This is absolutely right. I've been trying to dispel the "double the score" myth for a year now without much success, but it seems I'm getting some help here. :)
User avatar Squire
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07 Jan 2017 15:16

You cannot put a number on it a priori, absolute or relative (just take the hypothetical scenario where every rider scores exactly the same as the year before). You're average rider will cost 227. If the (average) return for many of the best picks around that price is 400, then the value of a rider costing 0 with a return of 100 will depend on how larger the return (in absolute measures) of a more expensive pick is than that of the average rider. In this case, you only have to find a single rider with a cost of 454 (or less) and a return of more than 700 for the swap to be good. If there's two above average priced riders, they will have to have a combined cost of 681 (or less) and a return of more than 1100 for the swap (of three average riders with the cheap rider and the two more expensive riders) to be favorable.

In a year with many good very low cost riders, the expensive riders will not have to be as good as in other years, and vice versa, just like if the return of an average cost rider is high, more of those will be able to out-perform a more diverse selection.

So in short, both relative and absolute return is important for all picks, and the market decides how those two needs to be combined for a pick to be good.

*Sometime, I will take a closer look on last year's game and the market of the most picked riders (probably top-100) and analyze how good picks they/(some of them) were, or rather how much of a return a rider would have to have in the different price ranges to be a contributing factor for a top team.
Goodbye, Tommeke; thank you for all you have given us!
User avatar Netserk
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Re:

07 Jan 2017 16:04

LaFlorecita wrote:Expensive riders don't have to double their score as long as some of your cheaper riders triple or quadruple their score.


That is true and you know that better than any else because just last year Alberto didn't even match his points from 2015 and you still made Top 20.

On the other hand, by selecting Alberto, it probably cost you a podium, or maybe even winning the game because I'm sure you would do better with several cheaper riders gaining those extra 250 from each. And you also knew that there is no way that Berto will double his points.
User avatar Jancouver
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