Log in:  

Register

The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick

04 Jan 2018 13:18

BRAMBILLA Gianluca
COQUARD Bryan
REICHENBACH Sébastien
ROELANDTS Jürgen
CAVENDISH Mark
SBARAGLI Kristian
KENNAUGH Peter
STANNARD Ian
NIZZOLO Giacomo
KANGERT Tanel
GUARDINI Andrea
ALBANESE Vincenzo
CRADDOCK Lawson
FENN Andrew
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
SAGAN Peter
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
MULLEN Ryan
KÄMNA Lennard
DOULL Owain
DUNBAR Eddie
TURGIS Anthony
DE BIE Sean
TSATEVICH Alexei
BILLE Gaëtan
ALAPHILIPPE Bryan
BJERG Mikkel
HNIK Karel
MINALI Riccardo
PREIDLER Georg
WALLAYS Jelle
MAIKIN Roman
VAN ASBROECK Tom

Um, yeah. I did the team in an hour or so after forgetting about this competition so I'm not surprised that I've missed loads. I thought about Halvorsen and decided against it because I didn't think he'd have many chances but in hindsight I was wrong. Intxausti is frustrating, part of me thought he was still injured possibly. Lopez is another bad miss, as is Ciccone (I forgot about his heart surgery) while Formolo I don't think has a very high ceiling especially if he continues focusing on GC which he can't really improve on 10th or so like last year, so that one was an intentional miss. I am kind of banking on Sagan having an improved spring (which shouldn't be too hard, las year was a pretty big disappointment) and a Tour in which he doesn't get kicked out. I have also invested heavily in young TTers (dunbar, mullen, kamna) as well as a few russians. But effectively it's all on Sagan, Ala and few 200 point picks which I have low hopes for.
Brullnux
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,347
Joined: 31 Mar 2015 14:41

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 14:06

LaFlorecita wrote:
greenedge wrote:Bettiol is a risk (with GVA having the ability to perform at the same races he does) but one I hope that pays off with some experienced riders around him.

I have the same thoughts about Bettiol. I picked him mainly because I like him, but somehow I also feel more confident in BMC than Cannondale. GVA could be an issue, of course. Let's see.


Gerrans' experience will be key for him in races like AGR/LBL (Teuns should be leader at FW). Hopefully if he rides well in the Ardennes he can have a bigger role in late season one day races.
greenedge
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,581
Joined: 27 Mar 2011 04:23

04 Jan 2018 14:20

Wow, I've completely missed Sondre Holst Enger.
My biggest gamble is my most expensive pick - Richie Porte.
However, my other picks seem to be very popular.
User avatar Martin
Member
 
Posts: 318
Joined: 20 Mar 2009 06:00
Location: svatyjur.sk

Re:

04 Jan 2018 15:44

jsem94 wrote:I kind of understand both choosing Porte and Valverde. Both had their seasons cut short, but there is no guarantee whatsoever their springs will be nearly as good as last year.

Valverde is getting older, has had this injury, so are you really banking on him getting 2700+ points? Ludicrous if you ask me, that's one of the biggest high risk picks one could take.

Porte? High ceiling. Could get 2000+ with relative ease, but he'd need to be just as fortunate as last year in the lead-up to the Tour and actually finish a GT placing high and maybe going into the Vuelta or Worlds and scoring big as well. He's never done it in his career yet and I haven't been convinced ever that he will suddenly be able to pull it off without something getting in the way.

Even with a 1000+ point pick you want to be relatively comfortable that they will add 50% to their score. So 1000->1500. Maybe if your pick is Valverde you want at least 600 points extra for it to be worth it. I don't know. Or you're banking on your low cost riders scoring many hundreds of points each.


I’m banking on Valverde scoring that much! :)
I think he’s gonna be the highest scorer of 2018. He’s back :cool:
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,520
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 15:53

skidmark wrote:Okay, unofficial count is 128 teams. My time to work on this is up for now, but until next time, here's my team:

VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
OOMEN Sam
LATOUR Pierre
GAUDU David
VAN POPPEL Danny
MAS NICOLAU Enric
CAVENDISH Mark
ROELANDTS Jürgen
COQUARD Bryan
KÄMNA Lennard
VENDRAME Andrea
DOULL Owain
BRAMBILLA Gianluca
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
SIVAKOV Pavel
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
MAMYKIN Matvey
NIZZOLO Giacomo
HAUSSLER Heinrich
KANGERT Tanel
GUARDINI Andrea
MCNULTY Brandon
CAPIOT Amaury
ALBANESE Vincenzo
CRADDOCK Lawson
KÖNIG Leopold
ENGER Sondre Holst
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat

I'll be back to discuss at length in the future, I'm sure, but feel free to pick it apart.


I have to say, besides your irrational trust in Grosu, it's the first time I'm scratching my head at some of your selections but first, I'll talk about your picks I really like. Obviously I like the riders we have in common (Lopez, Latour, Gaudu, Mas, Cavendish, Coquard, Fernandez, Navardauskas, Nizzolo, Guardini, Capiot, Craddock, König, Intxausti and Enger) but the reasoning behind most is pretty obvious so I'm not gonna spend a paragraph on them.

Kämna, Roelandts and Oomen were all on my first draft but when you come in at 9000pts you have to cut some riders. Oomen in particular I think is going to break through this year and I'm a bit annoyed to see him picked by so many top players. It just reinforces my belief that his omission is going to blow up right in my face. I never considered Chaves and I wish I had, with good health he's easily a 1000+ pts type of rider and for that price it's a very good pick.

I'm not a Mamykin fan but I think he's better than what he showed last year and he is in a better situation scoring wise this year. Good rare pick.

I like the Valverde choice. Nobody can deny his unique ability to rack up CQ points and for his price point, I'd want at least 2400 to feel really good about selecting him which feels very doable for a rider of his caliber. Still that's a tough ask for anybody turning 38 in the middle of the season. He has to drop off at some point right ? Even without accounting for age-based regression let's look at what his history tells us. He missed a big chunk of the season last year but that's not necessarily where does he does the most damage scoring wise and his start to the season went pretty much as well as you could hope. He scored 1329 pts pre TDF in 2016, 1654 in 2015 and 1458 in 2014 (obviously 1828 in 2017). That's 1567 pts on average. His last 3 TDF + Vuelta were 579 (2016), 883 (2015), 1094 (2014). There's definitely some slippage here. How much was due to racing the Giro in 2016, how does having Landa on top of Quintana affect his GC potential, how many points can he recoup from Contador's (and Froome's ?) absence ? Let's give him his average 852 pts (that seems a bit high to me). That leaves San Sebastian + Lombardia + the Worlds. 600 points in 2014, 399 in 2015, 212 in 2016. Again, his numbers are trending down later in the year (and he has good excuses like no Worlds in 2016 but that's a lot of evidence that's starting to rack up to suggest he has more trouble finishing seasons as he ages). Let's say he would have placed 5th in the Worlds in 2016 had he participated (not unreasonable given his track record at the event), his 2014-2016 average for the three races would be 456 pts. So looking at his performances 2014-2017, if he doesn't slip due to age and doesn't miss time he projects around 2875 pts which would make him a great pick. Honestly with Landa and Quintana on his team, I have a hard time seeing him as a big GC threat in the GTs so I had him more around 400-450 pts for Vuelta and TDF combined which put him right at the limit for consideration. In the end, I'm a bigger believer in the upside of Alaphilippe, Gaviria and Bardet than Valverde for the purpose of this game (plus I like them better) but he was the only other 1000+ pts riders I considered.

Haussler, Kangert, Van Poppel and Brambilla should bounce back and I expect them to be good picks but they are riders that I find difficult to get excited about.

Vendrame and Garcia Cortina didn't jump off the page to me. I would love to hear why you found them so appealing when there are plenty of other worthy options in their price range.

I had Doull last year but he seemed overwhelmed at the WT level and he looks more than a year away to me. Albanese was one of my worst picks last year. He's young and can improve but he was just so, so far away last year, I dont know where he's going to score points in the pros. I feel like there were more worthy gambles in that price range.

Can't say I'm too impressed with your crops of neo-pros though it's always a more difficult (and subjective) exercise than picking established riders. I don't know much about McNulty and Riabushenko but they don't scream special to me. I think Halvorsen is fast but I don't think he's strong enough to hang until the end of WT stages yet. I have zero trust in Sivakov translating his u23 results to the pros (right away).
User avatar EvansIsTheBest
Member
 
Posts: 420
Joined: 12 Dec 2010 06:49

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 16:27

2018 squad!

ARU Fabio
ALAPHILIPPE Julian
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
WOODS Michael
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
GAUDU David
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
MAS NICOLAU Enric
CAVENDISH Mark
COQUARD Bryan
DEVRIENDT Tom
WALSCHEID Maximilian
EDMONDSON Alexander
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
SMITH Dion
KENNAUGH Peter
POWER Robert
CANTY Brendan
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro
NIZZOLO Giacomo
KANGERT Tanel
SOTO MARTINEZ Nelson Andres
ALLEGAERT Piet
CAPIOT Amaury
COSTA Adrien
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose
CRADDOCK Lawson
KÖNIG Leopold
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres
ENGER Sondre Holst

Good luck to everyone!
Jakob747
Junior Member
 
Posts: 295
Joined: 10 Jun 2009 17:33
Location: Colombia

04 Jan 2018 16:35

Given his track record in this game, it's always worth taking a look at skidmark's team. But I have to say I agree with some of EITB's observations.

At first glance, it's got a lot of 'skidmarky' picks. Riders performing in late season last year (Doull, Oomen, Kämna), and riders with one or two very strong performances which creates hope that they will show it more often (Garcia, Fernandez, Craddock).

Doull did have his injury (or was it illness) early last year, but I still don't see him doing a lot more than solid domestique duties. I think both Halvorsen and Lawless get sprint chances ahead of him.

I had Vendrame last year, and he did his job well. He missed out on even more points due to some crashes, but I still don't see him ripping it apart this year. He can end up having a good season but only score 300 points, depending on race category/GC results. I'm a fan though, so I hope he does well.

Garcia is a bit like I described Gougeard last year: Rouleur type without a lot of obvious chances for points, even though he seems like a great talent. Neos like Sivakov and Riabushenko will have their options limited, I think, even though they are monster talents. There are just too many more experienced Riabushenkos at UAE. I'm not excited about Roelandts, who I think will lack chances.

But contrary to EITB's opinion, I do like the Albanese pick. He started 2017 with knee problems, then got ill, and was chucked into the Giro as a 20-year-old without any form whatsoever. He got through most of it pretty well, but he never really caught up form-wise until the last few races of the season. I still have full faith in him being a new Italian superstar. You don't single-handedly ride solo away from the U23 peloton over and over again without having something special.

Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,231
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re:

04 Jan 2018 16:52

Squire wrote:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.

So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?
User avatar fauniera
Member
 
Posts: 1,413
Joined: 12 Oct 2013 15:00

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 16:57

fauniera wrote:
Squire wrote:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.

So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?

Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,231
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

04 Jan 2018 17:05

I think in the case of a few of us we picked Valverde as much with our heart as we did anything else. Of course do expect him to still have that unique consistency. He's only very slowly showing his age and everyone who rides with him as regular training partners are claiming he's fully recovered from the injury. Now it is true that his 2nd half of the season is typically not as good as the first half where he really shines. However, 2016 his 12th at la Vuelta is really due to having raced 3 GTs that year. I also think many of us are counting on his banking top 10 points for both the Tour and Vuelta (possibly podium at la Vuelta) along with at least a few stages of both the Tour and Vuelta gaining points. Granted it's unlikely he'll have as crazy good of a start to the season this year as he had last year.
User avatar Koronin
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,076
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 17:24

fauniera wrote:
Squire wrote:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.

So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?


What about my Valverde + Alaphilippe + Gaviria strategy? :lol:
I had to stick with Gaviria and Alaphilippe after what they did for me last year. Valverde, I just fancy that he will think in terms of going out with a bang .... and I don't mean into the railings.
User avatar armchairclimber
Member
 
Posts: 1,361
Joined: 16 Jul 2011 19:44

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 17:24

Squire wrote:
fauniera wrote:
Squire wrote:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.

So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?

Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.


Hey Squire, you are always good at picking your team and once again you have a very solid team and my only questions is, do you really believe that G.Thomas and M.Woods can double their points?

For some reason I don't see it, but again, I suck at predicting success and you are the master of this game.
User avatar Jancouver
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,548
Joined: 14 Mar 2009 22:03
Location: San Diego, USA

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 17:35

Squire wrote:
I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.

I can do that, but i will wait for skidmarks spreadsheet.
User avatar fauniera
Member
 
Posts: 1,413
Joined: 12 Oct 2013 15:00

Re: Re:

04 Jan 2018 17:42

Jancouver wrote:
Squire wrote:
fauniera wrote:
Squire wrote:
Going the Valverde route is a strategy decision, which is valid enough. But despite him being my favourite rider, I still believe the Alaphilippe+somebody else strategy to be superior.

So what about my Alaphilippe+Valverde strategy?

Best of both worlds :D

I'm hoping that you, as defending champion, will write the reasoning behind your picks.


Hey Squire, you are always good at picking your team and once again you have a very solid team and my only questions is, do you really believe that G.Thomas and M.Woods can double their points?

For some reason I don't see it, but again, I suck at predicting success and you are the master of this game.

I'm definitely not the master of this game. But I like talking about it. My mouth is a lot bigger than my results. :D

Woods:
I think he's an exceptional talent, and he rode the first two GTs of his career last year, which could take him to a next level this year, as it often does. And his team is now a lot slimmer in the climbing department ('rivals' like Formolo & Talansky gone).

I actually picked him in the belief that he'd aim for the Tour. I saw that as the perfect schedule for him. Not that he would do so well in the Tour itself, but I could see him scoring in spring stage races, getting a good Ardennes peak, a good Suisse/Dauphiné, and perform in San Seb, the Canadian races and the Worlds, where I think he can podium. But now he's doing the Giro apparently. Not sure what I think about that, but the rest of the season could still go pretty much the same.

Thomas:
I had Moscon in my team all December, but in the end I got too nervous about the Reichenbach thing, or a collarbone break in E3 Prijs. And Thomas became very tempting with Froome aiming for the Giro (and even better if he's banned). Thomas actually got paid less points than his performances deserved in the half season he did last year. Tirreno TTT screwing his GC, and the crazy Catalonia stage also screwing his GC. This year, his spring program is perfect for him. Later he could score well in the Tour (+prep race), and he's said he will race in the autumn, too. Also, I don't need him to double his points to be worthwhile. 1300+ is enough.
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,231
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 18:15

My Roster

I wish i knew who Inxausti is, but looks like i missed big on that one. Going higher risk. Top 50 not good enough.

PORTE Richie - High risk but certainly has a chance to reach 2000
ALAPHILIPPE Julian - I just love to watch him race. Need someone to route for.
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel - Hopefully Vuelta is a good sign
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban - Obvious pick (thought bout Simon with the two grand tours)
OOMEN Sam - Probably not great value but he is so good i needed him.
GESINK Robert - A less popular pick, but could get a few more points without injury.
VAN POPPEL Danny - See some sprint wins.
MAS NICOLAU Enric - Another not great value, but has so much potential I didn't want to miss it.
KREUZIGER Roman - Some say he's done. I thought i read some positive quotes from him. So why not?
CAVENDISH Mark - Of Course
COQUARD Bryan - Pretty sure everyone else would have him
FORMOLO Davide - I think he made a good move for more points.
BRAMBILLA Gianluca - good value
MINALI Riccardo - Stretch here. But I like young sprinters
O'CONNOR Ben - Not sure why. Heard he was good
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan - Last second add (realized i was under budget) I really liked his results last year. On flats and hills. Not sure his specialty but seems pretty talented. Hoping a rarer pick.
HALVORSEN Kristoffer - Defensive pick. Too early but thought others would have him too.
CARTHY Hugh - Not sure. Had him last year.
VERVAEKE Louis - Whoa. I thought I passed on him. No, I wasn't drinking. Well, glad to have a good climber at this value. I wonder who i dropped for him.
FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben - Not sure. Was talented. Still is?
RAVASI Edward - Too early but good talent.
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas - Solid value and will get some chances.
CHEVRIER Clément - My calculator picked this one.
MAMYKIN Matvey - Value pick. Not high on him.
NIZZOLO Giacomo - Obvious
KANGERT Tanel - Should be way better then last year.
GUARDINI Andrea - Hoping for some smaller race wins
MOSER Moreno - great value
WACKERMANN Luca - I forget who this guy is. I think a youngster. Cheap and rare.
CRADDOCK Lawson - Great value and too young to give up on.
KÖNIG Leopold - Value
FOURNIER Marc - $5 add. Not expecting much.
ENGER Sondra Holst - Had him last year. No idea why he sucked. Turns out he's a popular pick.

Next year I'll start making an effort to learn pro-conti teams and races if i want a chance to win. I'm American. I'm slow.
Bob
Omaha, NE
User avatar bminchow
New Member
 
Posts: 41
Joined: 27 Dec 2016 19:11
Location: Omaha, NE

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 18:34

bminchow wrote:My Roster

I wish i knew who Inxausti is, but looks like i missed big on that one. Going higher risk. Top 50 not good enough.


Next year I'll start making an effort to learn pro-conti teams and races if i want a chance to win. I'm American. I'm slow.



Inxausti is at Sky (was at Movistar previously). He didn't race much if at all last year due to illness.

You aren't the only American here. I'm also American and also don't know many of the pro-conti teams very well. The only Pro-Conti teams I have a decent handle on are Cofidis, Direct Engery, Caja Rural, United Health Care and Axeon (which I probably spelled incorrectly). I know there are two Spanish teams that moved up to the pro conti level for 2018 but don't know much about either one other than Landa is involved with one of them.
User avatar Koronin
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,076
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

04 Jan 2018 18:47

(To Bob) Luca Wackermann is a fairly young Italian sprinter, former Lampre. He was an incredible talent once but has sort of become that mediocre low level sprinter from Italy you see occasionally. He had a really good year in 2016 because he was on the Asia and Africa Tour mainly, so he found himself the best there. In 2017 he moved to Bardiani and therefore was in the Europe Tour so struggled.
Brullnux
Veteran
 
Posts: 5,347
Joined: 31 Mar 2015 14:41

04 Jan 2018 19:08

I didn't pick either Intxausti or Craddock. I had Craddock twice before and like someone else said, I've lost faith. Maybe he'll improve on his score; maybe he won't. Just not confident at all so I passed. Strongly considered Intxausti until I saw an interview a few weeks ago from which it sounded like he didn't really feel there was an end in sight. Of course he's 0 points so can't go wrong, but he does take up a spot.
User avatar LaFlorecita
Veteran
 
Posts: 30,285
Joined: 15 May 2011 09:53
Location: Utrecht, The Netherlands

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 19:55

Okay, I spent a few hours on the spreadsheet and the popularity tab should be finished, as well as all the individual pages for teams. Here is the link.

The spreadsheet isn't finished yet, but it has the basics to look at all the teams and popularity of riders. Note that the "Popularity Table" tab doesn't have a current summary - there is an example table there from a couple of years ago (I use a template every year to collect teams) but fiddled around with the pivot table and couldn't get it to work in the few minutes I had. If someone is interested in doing that work and posting the updated spreadsheet here, feel free, otherwise I'll do it after the weekend.

Also note that all the links in the first Rankings page go to the current teams, but if you just tab through the team tabs there will be some empty teams - again, this is because I used a template which has tabs for past teams in case they come back (it's handy to have it already there). I'll clean that up before the updates come out, but didn't have time now and just wanna get this info out because I know it's fun to peruse.

It looks like we have 129 teams this year - I have 128 on my list, so I must have missed one when I was keeping track as they came in. That's great, right on par with last year. We had 28 teams leave this year, which is a pretty good retention rate, although some of the names that left have been with us for a long time. We had 19 new teams, and a handful of returnees who have played before but not last year. There were 32 teams signed up through VeloRooms and 97 through cyclingnews.

That's it for me today - good luck everyone! It's lovely to see that this game continues to have robust participation and appreciation. Thanks for playing all.
skidmark
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,617
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:16

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2018 20:13

Finally I have time to write about some riders in detail.
1. riders I picked (I won't write about the obvious picks)
Alaphilippe:
I'm usually not a fan of 1000+ picks but since I struggled to find good riders with 500+ points I decided to take him. The reason why I actually don't like very expensive picks is because I think a rider always needs the potential to double his score. A rider as expensive as Alaphilippe probably doesn't have to achieve quite that but he has to get at least close to that mark to be seen as a very good pick. While I'm not sure other 1000+ riders can do that I think Alaphilippe can. He missed a big part of last season and even in the races where he was really good he didn't get quite as many points as possible. For example he "only" got 80 points for his absolutely dominant performance at the WC. I think he is ready to win his first really big race and become one of the highest scorers of the season.

Thomas:
For sure one of my riskiest picks, but one with huge potential. We still haven't seen what he is capable of at gt's since he crashed out in both he entered last season but if shows similar performances as we've already seen in one week races he could end up being a phenomenal pick. Just think about it, a rider with one of the strongest teams and a schedule perfectly suited to him, while his former team leader might be banned or at least will have the giro in his legs when he rides the tour. My gut feeling tells me I won't regret putting him in my team.

Vakoc:
He is maybe the rider in my team I'm least happy about. I put him in my team quite early and when I finalized my roster I couldn't find anyone in his points range whome I preferred over him, so since I didn't want to put my whole team upside down because of one rider I just kept it as it was. There were a few picks like him who I considered because their last season was way worse than their previous one, but where I wasn't sure whether the good penultimate or the bad last season was the outlier. I therefore kicked guys like Pantano and Atapuma out of my team since I was really surprised about how good they were in 2016. And that's why Vakoc made my final team. Thinking back to 2016, I was never surprised about his performances. For example when he won races like Brabantse Pijl he was my personal favorite. Therefore I think he'll do better than last year although I'm not convinced he'll be a really good pick.

Bettiol:
In a way he is comparable to Vakoc since both are young, both are strong one day racers, both had a great 2016 but a disappointing 2017. I know many people think he won't make that many points because he rides in the same team as GVA, but then again, the same counted for Teuns last year, and Bettiol will in the process also leave the worst WT team. I'm confident.

Terpstra:
A rider where my head told me not to pick him, but I again listened to my gut feeling. I might regret that. The thing is that although his score got clearly worse for two years in a row it never felt like he wasn't good. Remember RVV last year? He looked superb and was clearly the best rider who didn't attack early and he surely did not look like a guy who only scores 400 points in a season. Moreover he crashed out one week later in the race where he is probably even stronger. Now that Boonen has retired he might also get a bit more team support than in previous years (although Gilbert's focus on PR might be a problem for him). Anything but a safe pick, but I'm happy that I took the risk.

Mas:
He is young, there are basically no better climbers in his team, so he'll enter almost every race in a free role, I like him, I just had to pick him.

Bonifazio:
He might be my worst pick and I actually already knew that when making my team. Everything from how his cq graph looks like, to his role in the team and the fact that he isn't the super young talent he used to be anymore tells me that this is not a great rider for this team. But at the end I had one spot in the team left and Bonfiazio fit right in (I now have 7499 points) and a part of me always wanted him in my team. I've now already written this way too often, but it was simply gut feeling that he'll do better next year than in the last two seasons.

Kreuziger:
I understand that people don't want to take him since he is now in the role of the team captain and not the leader who wins a lot of races, but considering his age he just shouldn't already decline as much as he did last year. Maybe he won't turn the time back to the days when he finished seasons with 1000+ points but I think 500 points should still be possible.

Ciccone:
One of my favorite riders in my team. Young, great climber, had health issues early last season but got better at the end. Just like Mas he is the kind of guy I like to root for which is why I took him although me might not be an absolutely rock solid pick. I'm convinced he'll be clearly better than last year anyway.

Rosa:
I'm actually not sure why I even have to explain why I picked him since I expected him to be one of the most popular riders, but turns out he is not. I mean, he is still in lots of teams but in my opinion he is a no brainer. He had two great seasons at Astana, then went to Sky, and as it's always the case with Sky, he had problems in his first season there. But the same happened to Landa and Kwiat and both exploded in their 2nd year in England. Ofc there is never a guarantee that he'll be great but I see riders I'm way less sold on in every team.

Betancur:
If Betancur doesn't return to his former self this year he never will. He looked so great last year and then the stupid Vuelta crash happened. If he gets the same shape again his ceiling is somewhere in the 1000 points region and I simply didn't want to take the risk of leaving him out.

Carthy:
One year ago he seemed like one of the most promising climbing prospects, but somehow all the hype disappeared. I really hope that this was just one bad season and not another great climber lost in the Cannondale factory of sadness. Anyway, with 129 points the risk of taking him was again not as high as the risk of him becoming his former self again.

Serry:
In hindsight he is probably not a very good pick but one with a very predictable return. He had between 230 and 290 points 5 years in a row and then dropped to 117 points last year. He still isn't very old and I therefore hope for more than 200 points again. I know, that's a very low ceiling but somehow I just wanted to try out it only looking at a rider's graph will turn out being the right tactic.

Formolo, Kennaugh:
Two riders with a disappointing 2017 season, and two riders joining Bora a team without a superstrong leader in stage races. I think they'll get a lot of freedom in stage races


2. riders I almost picked:
Halvorsen:
As I've already written he is the only rider I really regret not picking. That said I'm not as angry about missing him than about missing popular picks in previous years since I at least didn't overlook him. He'll probably turn out being a good pick, but I at least don't expect him to be crucially great.

Guarnieri, Capiot, Brandao:
3 really cheap riders who I all originally had in my team. The reason why I kicked out all three is because I don't really know anything and couldn't find any helpful articles about them. If I had picked them I would have done so only because their cq statistic looked like they had an extraordinarily bad last year and had way better seasons before. But I don't really like that reason. What if they had a bad injury or an illness like Intxausti which might still be problematic this year? I just didn't know and therefore decided to go for riders I knew more about.

Porte:
Of all the expensive picks I didn't take he was the only one where I was really unsure whether I should pick him or not. There were many arguments in his favor like that he couldn't finish a gt, was unlucky before the tour (he could have won both PN and the Dauphine) and that he didn't race in autumn. The main reasons why I didn't take him is that I can't take his shape last year as given for this year. The shape of a rider changes from year to year and it will be incredibly difficult to be as strong as last year again and if he indeed is not as strong, he probably won't get much more points even if he finishes the tour. Moreover even if everything goes perfectly for him, doubling his score, or getting close to that will be very, very hard for him anyway and as long as that doesn't happen it's not extremely bad to miss a rider like him.


3. riders which I think are bad picks:
Sagan:
I get that he didn't have a perfect 2017 season and was often super unlucky, but with what 2018 score can you call him a good pick. Normally a rider needs to get at least 50% more points than in his previous season, said differently Sagan almost has to be as good as in his superb 2016 campaign, and all that without a WC route that suits him (mind you, those are 400 points he won't get this year. 400!!!). Could he still do that? Yeah, but it's not likely. And if he gets injured in this spring your whole team basically goes to waste. That's simply a risk not worth taking.

Valverde:
I think he is a more reasonable pick. But still, when people talk about how many points he'll make they often assume he'll repeat his 2017 spring, but how likely is that? Even if he is back to his 2013 - 2016 shape his spring will probably not be as good as last year when he had a once in a lifetime shape. And we don't even know if he'll be as good again. The man is a dinosaur and at some point he has to start declining. It's absolutely possible next year won't be that year but if it is, he should be happy to get 1500 points. And I haven't even mentioned that he ended last season with a horrible injury. Again there is a decent chance it won't affect him this year, but there is also a chance that it will. If Valverde would be a 1000 points pick you can maybe take that risk, but at 1800 points I think picking him isn't very rational.
User avatar Gigs_98
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,269
Joined: 18 Feb 2015 18:36
Location: Austria

PreviousNext

Return to Games and Fantasy Cycling

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Back to top