15 Apr 2018 20:51
Race 18 Amstel Gold
There were suggestions of what riders had been selected who could still make a difference, and no-one suspected that the winner of the first race in our game still had this up his sleeve.
VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael 1st, 220 pts for Blues in the Bottle and Nathanptz
GASPAROTTO Enrico 3rd, 112pts for Armchair Cyclist, B'bass, DFA123, Hakkie, Madrazo, Search, The Art, The Asian and Trudgin*
ALAPHILIPPE Julian 7th, 66pts for B'bass, Del1962, Kazistuta, Mellow Velo, The Asian
VANENDERT Jelle 10th, 46pts for Scrool07
IMPEY Daryl 11th, 40 for Joelsim and Pirate81
GILBERT Philippe 13th, 30 for So 2017
MOLARD Rudy 15th, 24 for DJW and Scrool07
DE TIER Floris 16th, 21 for Chiron
GESINK Robert 28th, 8 for GPBlanco
and 7 five-pointers, 6 of whom are only on one or two teams each, and the other is the most popular pick, Vanmarcke
1 Blues_in_the_Bottle 225
2 Nathanptz 220
3 Bbass, The_Asian 178
5 DFA123, Hakkie, Madrazo 117
8 Armchair, Search, TheArt 112
11 Kazistuta, MellowVelo 71
13 Scrool07 70
14 Del1962 66
15 Joelsim, ThePirate81 45
17 So2017 30
18 Chiron 26
19 DJW 24
20 GPBlanco 13
21 DJSprtsch, SemirS, Vladimir 10
24 15 teams with a single five-pointer 5
39 Squire 0
CollectiveWisdom 5
Trudgin* 127
Standings
The eight teams with Gasparotto include those who were 2nd, 3rd and 4th this morning, While Nathanptz, who was 5th, was one of the two who has Valgren. Nathanptz rises to the top, while Madrazo and Hakkie maintain their podium places. Russell, who has only Vanmarcke among today's finishers, slips to 4th. Blues in the Bottle is the (7 place) riser of the day, and is into the top ten.
1 Nathanptz 2243
2 Madrazo 2205
3 Hakkie 2198
4 Russell23 2169
5 Armchair 2145
6 LosBrolin 2023
7 AmisVelo 2017
8 Laarsland 1993
9 RoteLaterne 1966
10 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1870
11 DFA123 1863
12 The_Asian 1854
13 GPBlanco 1777
14 Zaka_fan 1750
15 Leadbelly 1695
15 Shalgo 1695
17 DJW 1674
18 So2017 1669
19 ThePirate81 1646
20 Squire 1507
21 TheArt 1477
22 Scrool07 1467
23 Vladimir 1372
24 Froschi 1367
25 MellowVelo 1328
26 Bbass 1233
27 NorthAmericanScum 1197
28 Comodoro 1176
29 Fauniera 1142
30 Search 1087
31 Salvarani 1082
32 NairoQ 1071
33 Chiron 1057
34 SemirS 1028
35 Del1962 1004
36 Josedin 978
37 Kazistuta 928
38 Joelsim 875
39 DJSprtsch 717
CollectiveWisdom 2119
Trudgin 691
I suspect that 4 teams are still in with a decent shout, and 2 others will at least be close to the podium.
The Asian, with both Alaphilippe (a unique pick) and Gasparotto, could yet make a late surge, but I reckon he would need him to win one of the two remaining races, and be top 5 in the other, to have a real chance. Nathanptz will be pleased that Valgren is down to ride in both Ardennes races, but hasn't got great history in either (although 14th in L-B-L 2 years ago will give him some hope). The 4 riders in Hakkie's team that he does not share with Madrazo will not give him much hope for catching him, but I doubt their opposite numbers will extend Madrazo's advantage either: the fate of these two teams lies in Gasparotto, and the dream of him repeating his 2016 campaign (although a much more modest set of results would suffice to catch Nathanptz: a top ten in either race could suffice if Valgren does not feature again. Armchair Cyclist retains 2 irons in the fire, and if Benoot can achieve the aims I have described for Gasparotto, I will be in the same, Gasparotto dependent, boat as Madrazo and Hakkie, and if he gets top 10 in his debut in both races, I will be up with Nathan (if Valgren lets him down).
In short: Nathanptz will hope Valgren can consolidate his lead, a real star performance from Alaphilippe could win it for the Asian, and while Madrazo's hopes lie with Gasparotto, Armchair Cyclist will look to him and also to Benoot. Podium chances remain for Hakkie, who will want to see Madrazo do as well as possible, and Russell23, who will be cheering for any and all of the remaining 171 riders in each race.
And the final order could still be decided by those finishing much further down the field and how many five point finishers each team can muster.
We'll gather again on Wednesday to see how much mud has cleared after the Arrow has been fired.