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Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 08:22

Blanco wrote:
Climber123 wrote:He is still the favourite. By some distance.


But the distance is decreasing. I don't think he will win, he was better last year.

A little. And then he lost a bit of that form toward the end.

Simple truth is that as of yet no climb has been done full throttle from more than 2km out. Dumoulin benefits from climbs that are ridden in a positive split.

But I agree he's not as sharp as last year. But that may yet happen. The Zoncolan is only saturday.
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14 May 2018 08:46

The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...
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Re:

14 May 2018 08:47

Climber123 wrote:He is still the favourite. By some distance.

At the same point last year he was in a similar position as this year (about half a minut from the leader), but the deficit last year was to a better climber (than Yates), on a more difficult mountain, without already having a tt behind his back and with twice the amount of itt to come compared to this year. Last year also had poopgate, though. I don't consider him the main favorit anymore.
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Re:

14 May 2018 08:50

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...


But his performances don’t match that of last year, and he’s already said several times his legs haven’t been great.

Perhaps the competition is better, to be fair Nibali and Quintana raced tamely last year.
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Re:

14 May 2018 08:55

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 10:58

DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 12:16

Red Rick wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.

I think you Dutch mafia need to be realistic and stop making him out to be something he's not. He's an incredible TTist who can limit his losses well in the mountains - no more, no less than that.

And he's performing pretty much the same as last year - which is promising for his chances. But he's not a rider who is going to be destroying people in the mountains. He rides primarily to limit his losses to the best climbers, and he's doing that pretty well so far.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 12:22

Red Rick wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.

Just ignore the dude. Oh wait, your admin, you can also just delete his posts for obvious trolling.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 12:29

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:
Red Rick wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.

Just ignore the dude. Oh wait, your admin, you can also just delete his posts for obvious trolling.

Don't be a child - there's no trolling here. Just pointing out your flawed analysis.

Dumoulin's power numbers as the same as last year, because he is doing exactly what he did last year. Whether it will be enough to win with fewer TT kilometres, harder climbs and different (better form) opponents is debatable. But he's riding a solid Giro so far - limiting his losses well in the mountains. Which is what he does. He's no Contador.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 12:48

DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:
Red Rick wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.

Just ignore the dude. Oh wait, your admin, you can also just delete his posts for obvious trolling.

Don't be a child - there's no trolling here. Just pointing out your flawed analysis.

Dumoulin's power numbers as the same as last year, because he is doing exactly what he did last year. Whether it will be enough to win with fewer TT kilometres, harder climbs and different (better form) opponents is debatable. But he's riding a solid Giro so far - limiting his losses well in the mountains. Which is what he does. He's no Contador.

This.
And if the question is: TTrialist or climber? - of course climber, even Carapaz :razz:
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 13:02

DFA123 wrote:
Red Rick wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.

I can't even.

I think you Dutch mafia need to be realistic and stop making him out to be something he's not. He's an incredible TTist who can limit his losses well in the mountains - no more, no less than that.

And he's performing pretty much the same as last year - which is promising for his chances. But he's not a rider who is going to be destroying people in the mountains. He rides primarily to limit his losses to the best climbers, and he's doing that pretty well so far.

Calling a rider who was capable of winning on Oropa, Cumbre del sol and Arcalis just a TTer who can limit his losses seems... weird, he is not the best climber in the world ofc but he can actually attack and on his good days put the pure climbers on the rope... I'm not dutch BTW :razz:
Last edited by ColonelKidneyBeans on 14 May 2018 13:02, edited 1 time in total.
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14 May 2018 13:02

No, not ITT-er or climber. Allrounder or climber.
I rather have not one-dimensional riders win a GT, and for that reason I'm glad Purito has never won one.
Unfortunately GT's are so climber built this way it's almost impossible that not a pure climber wins.

There's also very few real allround gt men left. Nibali, Froome, Dumoulin, Valverde, and then you have me struggling for answers. Quintana is a pure climber, Pinot, Bardet, the Yates brothers, etc

Maybe Zakarin is borderline allround..
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14 May 2018 13:06

Made a little comparison wtih last year after the first week.

2017
Quintana (perceived as the rider to beat after his dominant Blockhaus win)
Pinot 24"
Dumoulin 24"
Mollema 41"
Nibali 1'00"
Pozzovivo 1'18"
Kangert 2'02"
Zakarin 2'14"
Reichenbach 2'28"
Formolo 2'35"

2018
Yates
Chaves 32"
Dumoulin 38"
Pinot 45"
Pozzovivo 57"
Carapaz 1'20"
Bennett 1'33"
Dennis 2'05"
Bilbao 2'05"
Woods 2'25"

Gaps are really similar in the top10.
Dumoulin sits in a slightly worse position. Last year he was 24" from the jersey, now he's 38" behind and there has alreay been a 10km TT. Let's say he gains 2' on Yates in the ITT, he'll have a 1'20" gap. Which means a bad day like Piancavallo 2017 puts Yates back in rosa or very close.
I don't know if Yates will keep this shape for three weeks but if he does, Dumoulin will have to climb better than last year to win the Giro. I think he can do it, but he's more likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than 1st.
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14 May 2018 13:48

Yes, I wasn't enough precisely.
Dumoulin is not pure TTrialist, indeed. He prove that in Giro 2017: great battle at Blockhaus and marvellous win at Oropa. His overall win was absolutely deserved.
What we have now? Ca. 7-8 contenders, with great win by Carapaz, some MAL attacks, brilliant duo Chaves and Yates, Pinot three times at podium! And two wheelsuckers: Froome (probably no chances to podium) and Dumoulin.
If he wins Giro2018 only thanks to ITT, without some kind of Oropa/Blockhaus performance - it would be ridiculous.
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14 May 2018 13:54

Dumoulin isn't a wheel sucker, he simply rides own pace. If there is a stage where it will break apart sooner, rather than close to the top, he'll ride on the front of whatever group he's part of and just ride his own pace. If that's to the front of the group, he'll do the same.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 14:12

DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.


He doesn't have to be an elite climber. He is an elite TT rider who is also a good climber. To do what he did in last year's Giro shows he can climb but at the same time I think the field in this year's Giro is better. Nibali and Quintana could never open up a decent time gap on Dumoulin in the mountains, at least one that would cancel his TT gains. I think this year's race is more unpredictable especially with two Michelton rides high on GC. Aru, Lopez and Froome still have something to prove in this race so it's not going to get any easier in the mountains if they can improve on their first week. Pinot is the one that could benefit if he can hold it together. He can let other stronger teams do the bulk of the chasing. The TT will be critical for him. I expect Michelton to be very tactical in the third week as they should be. their team is looking very good.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 14:15

movingtarget wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.


He doesn't have to be an elite climber. He is an elite TT rider who is also a good climber. To do what he did in last year's Giro shows he can climb but at the same time I think the field in this year's Giro is better. Nibali and Quintana could never open up a decent time gap on Dumoulin in the mountains, at least one that would cancel his TT gains. I think this year's race is more unpredictable especially with two Michelton rides high on GC. Aru, Lopez and Froome still have something to prove in this race so it's not going to get any easier in the mountains if they can improve on their first week. Pinot is the one that could benefit if he can hold it together. He can let other stronger teams do the bulk of the chasing. The TT will be critical for him. I expect Michelton to be very tactical in the third week as they should be. their team is looking very good.

TIL Nibali, Quintana and Zakarin are weaker than Yates, Chaves and Carapaz.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 14:52

movingtarget wrote:
DFA123 wrote:
Dekker_Tifosi wrote:The wattage numbers so far don't say Dumoulin is weaker btw. It's the same as last year. So...

Last year his climbing wasn't great either. He lost over four minutes to a way below par Quintana in the mountains. He's not an elite climber. He just has to hope no-one has the form or tactics to put him out of contention, and that he can gain a ridiculous amount of time in the TT.

That's how he races GTs.


He doesn't have to be an elite climber. He is an elite TT rider who is also a good climber. To do what he did in last year's Giro shows he can climb but at the same time I think the field in this year's Giro is better. Nibali and Quintana could never open up a decent time gap on Dumoulin in the mountains, at least one that would cancel his TT gains. I think this year's race is more unpredictable especially with two Michelton rides high on GC. Aru, Lopez and Froome still have something to prove in this race so it's not going to get any easier in the mountains if they can improve on their first week. Pinot is the one that could benefit if he can hold it together. He can let other stronger teams do the bulk of the chasing. The TT will be critical for him. I expect Michelton to be very tactical in the third week as they should be. their team is looking very good.

I completely agree. Dumoulin certainly doesn't have to be an elite climber to win - he showed that last year. So I think his Giro is going very nicely so far, he's limiting his losses and will be ready to strike when the TT comes.

I also agree that the level of the field is higher right now. Quintana and Nibali at their best are obviously better than Yates, Chaves and Pinot. But they weren't anywhere near their best last year, so Dumoulin will probably face stronger opposition this time round. The real test for Dumoulin will be that on the hardest climbs he probably has to limit losses to 1 minute at the very maximum, given the lack of TT kms compared with last year. That will be tough for him on Zoncolan and Finestre stage if Mitchelton, Pinot, or a resurgent Froome attacks early.
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14 May 2018 15:02

Hmm now I actually agree far more with DFA than I thought on both his last 2 posts ;)

Yes, Zoncolan is a problem, and Finestre stage probably the biggest one if a strong team like MS exploits it well.
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Re: Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

14 May 2018 16:14

This is Madness. Quintana and Nibali were on top form last Giro. Maybe not the best Quintana and Nibali ever seen but they are clearly better than Yates Chaves and Carapaz. Lol I remember Quintana and Nibali sprinting up to the Stelvio like madmen to take the descent in first position, anyone here won't do things like that. Here Yates has "attacked" 1 time at 1.5km to go and has won a sprint.

Pozzovivo and Pinot were there last year and they were destroyed by Dumoulin several times. This year they even seem a little bit better than him uphill. The reality is that maybe Dumo was slightly better last year but the route was fantastic for him. The climbs were very suited to him. Think of the Piancavallo stage with a Finestre, how much time would have lost tommy there?
Consider also that last year there were 70km of TT.
Or the last stage with the easiest side of Grappa (were Dum was losing a little bit the wheels already) and than the Foza were there was the final attack: 10 km at regular 6-7%. Perfect for Dumoulin to pace uphill. The route this year will make him suffer a little bit more.

However I still think he's the main favorite. He's not losing much. he'll gain massively in the TT and he won't crack. He's a proven champion.

But it'll be more difficult also because this year there are some serious super-teams (Bahrain and Movistar were jokes last year) and Sunweb doesn't seem too strong.
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