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The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 08:46

Wouldn't WÜRTZ SCHMIDT be best used in Kittels sprint train? That's what i would do anyway.

I picked RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr last year and he didn't do too much. Still think the guy is talented, but didn't dare to pick him again, mainly because i'm afraid he will be a helper in 2019. There are plenty of capitanos around at UAE after all. I wish you good luck with that pick, Jakob.

I strongly considered THOMAS Benjamin myself. The class is clearly there, world champion on the track and all. In the end i decided against him, because i had the impression that he was focused on the track and the Olympic Games next year.
User avatar fauniera
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11 Jan 2019 10:14

I considered Riabushenko as well - and I also had him last year - but he showed absolutely nothing except for that 2nd place in Pais Vasco (and I backed him at odds 351 for that stage, god dammit!). He seems like an interesting rider, and I hope that he'll do well even though I left him out in the end.
User avatar Hugo Koblet
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Re: Re:

11 Jan 2019 11:00

skidmark wrote:
Hugo Koblet wrote:
del1962 wrote:Jai Hindley

For

Seems good value, excellent talent

Against

Team he rides for points to few opportunities for himself.

Yes, that's definitely a concern. However, he doesn't have to have breakthrough season to be a good pick. Doubling his points won't be enough, but 300 I think will, which should be doable even if he doesn't get many opportunities for himself.


The team context is always an interesting consideration... teams like Sunweb and Mitchelton (and Sky and Astana etc) have a very 'work for the leaders unless you're a leader' approach, so even though they're teeming with young talent it makes it a tricky prospect picking them in this game, because while Jack Haig could podium some one-week races or show in one-days, it's more likely he'll superdom for two GTs or something. Other teams (QuickStep being the gold standard) just seem to know how to balance the needs of their neo-pros and established riders to ensure that everybody eats. Whereas other teams (UAE, Bahrain, historically Vaughters teams & Cofidis, etc) seem to have no plan or clue how to develop their riders to maximize potential.

On that front, one team I think has sneakily done an amazing job in the past couple of years is Jumbo - after my entire cycling fandom lifetime of observing Rabo good-but-mediocre returns, it's taken awhile to notice this, and even though I reminded myself of this last year watching how guys like Bennett and Roglic and Groenewegen and Kuss were coming through (and how they finally got some consistent excellence out of Kruijswijk), I totally forgot about that reminder while putting together my team. So I think guys like De Plus, Powless, Eenkhoorn, Van der Hoorn and even Tony Martin could be good picks in this game, and I'm sure I would have talked myself into at least one of them if I had been thinking on those terms.

I totally agree on all of this. I guess that's probably also the reason why I wrote that I thought Hindley and Hamilton have stalled in their progress (they might not actually, but they haven't gotten the opportunity to show themselves off). It's also the reason why I wanted to include some more Jumbo riders but in the end, I couldn't fit them in. I went back on forth on De Plus vs Powless, and I actually think that Powless probably have a higher ceiling whereas De Plus is more likely to steadily improve next season - at least that's my assessment.

Another good example of the great stuff Jumbo is doing these years is Timo Roosen who's gone completely under the radar for most, but had a very nice progression last year.
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11 Jan 2019 15:56

TDU line-up!

GATTO Oscar
GIBBONS Ryan
O'CONNOR Ben
BAUHAUS Phil
BETTIOL Alberto
DE LA PARTE Víctor
PeterB
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11 Jan 2019 16:03

My line-up for TDU

HAMILTON Lucas
EWAN Caleb
GIBBONS Ryan
O'CONNOR Ben
BAUHAUS Phil
MCLAY Daniel
BETTIOL Alberto
KANTER Max
FRANKINY Kilian
KNOX James
MARECZKO Jakub

Yeah, Im gonna be pretty disappointed if this dont generate some points for me...
Salvarani
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11 Jan 2019 16:07

My TDU is

O'CONNOR Ben
PÖSTLBERGER Lukas

Looks massive.
Vitapen
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 16:08

While we're still without a CQ update and with a bit of time before the TdU, I was just curious to get people's thoughts on a particular rider, namely

EVENEPOEL Remco

Obviously he's zero points and he's extremely popular, but because of his zero point status I haven't gotten a sense of what people think he's capable of this year, CQ-wise. I've actually seen a number of team breakdowns on the thread that sort of say 'don't expect much this year' even though he's on the team, but I'm curious what numbers people might imagine? Like, zero pointers are great because they don't increase the cost of your team, but also I think it's much better to take two 50-pointers that are going to each get 250 points than it is to take a 100-pointer that's going to get 300 and a zero pointer that might get <100, you know? So there is a calculus to picking them, and clearly this kid clears that bar for lots of people, but I'm curious by how much.

For me, I think realistically I expect him to clear 200-300, and if he proves to be real good maybe 500-600. There aren't many examples of teenagers doing so well, but QST is as always very smart about the races they're sending him to, and I'm mindful of Adrien Costa's Utah performance a couple of years ago as a realistic benchmark. Costa got a little less than 400 that year I think, but Evenepoel is racing a bunch of races that have more points than the ones Costa was doing. So that's what's informing my thoughts. What do you guys think? Less? More?
skidmark
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 16:48

skidmark wrote:While we're still without a CQ update and with a bit of time before the TdU, I was just curious to get people's thoughts on a particular rider, namely

EVENEPOEL Remco

Obviously he's zero points and he's extremely popular, but because of his zero point status I haven't gotten a sense of what people think he's capable of this year, CQ-wise. I've actually seen a number of team breakdowns on the thread that sort of say 'don't expect much this year' even though he's on the team, but I'm curious what numbers people might imagine? Like, zero pointers are great because they don't increase the cost of your team, but also I think it's much better to take two 50-pointers that are going to each get 250 points than it is to take a 100-pointer that's going to get 300 and a zero pointer that might get <100, you know? So there is a calculus to picking them, and clearly this kid clears that bar for lots of people, but I'm curious by how much.

For me, I think realistically I expect him to clear 200-300, and if he proves to be real good maybe 500-600. There aren't many examples of teenagers doing so well, but QST is as always very smart about the races they're sending him to, and I'm mindful of Adrien Costa's Utah performance a couple of years ago as a realistic benchmark. Costa got a little less than 400 that year I think, but Evenepoel is racing a bunch of races that have more points than the ones Costa was doing. So that's what's informing my thoughts. What do you guys think? Less? More?


I think he'll struggle to get more than about 300, but also shouldn't get much less than that as long as he adapts OK to riding in a much faster peloton than he is used to. The stage races he's doing are mostly quite big ones - Catalunya, Algarve, Turkey - where there is going to be pretty strong competition. So he's probably not going to win stages or place really high, but he can still pick up a steady stream of points just by being solid - especially as he probably will have a free role at QST.

I think more interesting from a CQ perspective would have been if he had done loads of the 'minor' Belgian one day races or more minor stage races (like Utah) instead. Then he could have been on for 800+ if he adapted well; or less than 100 if he struggled a bit.
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 17:07

Never pass the chance to cheer for an odd 25 points on your CQ roster.

In other words, Vuelta al Táchira starts today! 8 stages - 1108 kilometers though Táchira and Mérida with plenty of mountains to boot.

Ivan Sosa and Kevin Rivera both won stages here last year, Sosa eventually turned into the terminator of 018 while Rivera fell into total obscurity.

Rivera (30 teams) is back this year eager to redeem his lackluster 2018 while laying a solid ground-based of kilometers for his europian campaign late on - flanked by Daniel Muñoz (11 teams) and Miguel Florez (4 teams) Androni has a fearsome trio ready to duke it out against the locals.

Image

Image
Jakob747
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11 Jan 2019 17:12

My TDU lineup

Lucas Hamilton
Alberto Bettiol
Maximilian Walscheid
Kristoffer Halvorsen
Luke Rowe

Not too great
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 17:58

skidmark wrote:While we're still without a CQ update and with a bit of time before the TdU, I was just curious to get people's thoughts on a particular rider, namely

EVENEPOEL Remco

If Evenepoel is a success, I would've looked stupid had I missed out. That was basically my main point of argument.

Costa is the benchmark. Expecting anything from 0-400, with the most realistic outcome closer to zero than 400. Even if he struggles (which he might well do, it's so important being able to ride in a peloton) there are enough points to be had from Hammer series or random top 20 placings in some easy stage races. And hey, unless you're Fabio Sabatini you will score 100+ if you ride for Quickstep.

Salvarani wrote:My line-up for TDU

HAMILTON Lucas
EWAN Caleb
GIBBONS Ryan
O'CONNOR Ben
BAUHAUS Phil
MCLAY Daniel
BETTIOL Alberto
KANTER Max
FRANKINY Kilian
KNOX James
MARECZKO Jakub

Yeah, Im gonna be pretty disappointed if this dont generate some points for me...

And still, my one rider will probably score double the amount of points your entire team gets during the race. :D
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11 Jan 2019 18:00

My team for TDU
PORTE Richie
MORTON Lachlan
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
BETTIOL Alberto
I hope my boy richie starts the year with his homework done.
I wanted to had included Caleb Ewan in my team in order to start 2019 game with a bang but i though that there were less expensive sprinter picks with a higher celling than Ewan. Gaviria for 602 points if is able not to crash as much as last season and trentin that from sprinting point of view may be less capable than Ewan but is versatility for the cobbled classics and other races may give him some chance to score big points in places that Ewan will not even be. Both Gaviria and Trentin were last season away big time due to injury and although I also think that Ewan can really improve this season just by going to one GT I dont think he has a higher return than the other two.
drebelo
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 18:06

Squire wrote:
skidmark wrote:While we're still without a CQ update and with a bit of time before the TdU, I was just curious to get people's thoughts on a particular rider, namely

EVENEPOEL Remco

If Evenepoel is a success, I would've looked stupid had I missed out. That was basically my main point of argument.

Costa is the benchmark. Expecting anything from 0-400, with the most realistic outcome closer to zero than 400. Even if he struggles (which he might well do, it's so important being able to ride in a peloton) there are enough points to be had from Hammer series or random top 20 placings in some easy stage races. And hey, unless you're Fabio Sabatini you will score 100+ if you ride for Quickstep.

Salvarani wrote:My line-up for TDU

HAMILTON Lucas
EWAN Caleb
GIBBONS Ryan
O'CONNOR Ben
BAUHAUS Phil
MCLAY Daniel
BETTIOL Alberto
KANTER Max
FRANKINY Kilian
KNOX James
MARECZKO Jakub

Yeah, Im gonna be pretty disappointed if this dont generate some points for me...

And still, my one rider will probably score double the amount of points your entire team gets during the race. :D


Very humble of you
Salvarani
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11 Jan 2019 18:46

TDU Riders

Richie
Luke R
Dan MClay
Bettiol
Valls


We will see how they do
del1962
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 18:57

Salvarani wrote:
Squire wrote:And still, my one rider will probably score double the amount of points your entire team gets during the race. :D

Very humble of you

It was an attempt at some friendly banter, hence the ' :D '.

I'm actually pretty screwed if Porte doesn't deliver.
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

11 Jan 2019 19:15

Squire wrote:
Salvarani wrote:
Squire wrote:And still, my one rider will probably score double the amount of points your entire team gets during the race. :D

Very humble of you

It was an attempt at some friendly banter, hence the ' :D '.

I'm actually pretty screwed if Porte doesn't deliver.


Dont worry. I figured. And maybe you jinxed it now ;)


But Porte should place pretty high on GC and even win it.

I think O´Conner will do pretty good also from my team. I have some hopes Frankiny on my team also (unique pick). Maybe he can do something. Good climber. I will pick up most of my points from the sprints I think though in TDU.
Salvarani
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11 Jan 2019 22:48

My TDU team:

Porte
Poels
Bettiol
Durbridge

Going for quality over quantity with my leadduo, and also a rather important start also for my team with Poels a surpricingly rare pick, that could well get a very good start here. And for Porte it will ofcourse also be a important race if he is to have a strong season.
MADRAZO
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11 Jan 2019 22:57

My TDU team:

Victor De La Parte
Thomasz Marczynski
Rafa Valls
Jaime Castrillo
Kiel Reijnen
Rory Sutherland
User avatar Koronin
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12 Jan 2019 00:10

All of you should have a gander at this post to see if First Cycling's manager game is something for you. I know of several participants here also submitting teams for every one of the races we have manager for :)
laarsland
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12 Jan 2019 03:07

I don't expect much from Evenepoel despite picking him.
I believe he'll struggle to score over 100 points.
Might even turn out to be bad as Albanese.
Picked him for the same reason as squire's
Didn't want to look stupid if he scores big.
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