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14 Jan 2019 21:26

Even though Mahomes is a young QB, KC does have the advantage of playing at home. That should count for something, plus Reid is a good coach. The big problem is that KC doesn't have a very good defense. That means their offense is going to have to put up points and likely touchdowns every time they put their hands on the ball.
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Re:

14 Jan 2019 22:01

Koronin wrote:Even though Mahomes is a young QB, KC does have the advantage of playing at home. That should count for something, plus Reid is a good coach. The big problem is that KC doesn't have a very good defense. That means their offense is going to have to put up points and likely touchdowns every time they put their hands on the ball.


I give both the Rams and the Chiefs a good chance of progressing. Their defense has to be at least as good as this week but Mahomes is looking good and Goff will gain confidence from that win. I'd prefer not to see another Patriots SB win...........
movingtarget
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Re: Re:

15 Jan 2019 00:14

movingtarget wrote:
Koronin wrote:Even though Mahomes is a young QB, KC does have the advantage of playing at home. That should count for something, plus Reid is a good coach. The big problem is that KC doesn't have a very good defense. That means their offense is going to have to put up points and likely touchdowns every time they put their hands on the ball.


I give both the Rams and the Chiefs a good chance of progressing. Their defense has to be at least as good as this week but Mahomes is looking good and Goff will gain confidence from that win. I'd prefer not to see another Patriots SB win...........

Both KC and LAR are legit contenders and can win these games. LAR are going to have to play smarter though; no more mental blunders leading to stupid costly penalties like Talib & Peters have had. But the Saints have not played well or played a complete game in their last 4 games. If the LAR can play a complete game and catch the Saints in a bad day....

Home field can count for something, but in playoffs vs legit playoff teams, meh, not sure how much. Reid is a great coach. Belichick is better. As for the alleged bad KC defense (near league worst in regular season at over 26 PPG allowed and over 405 YPG allowed; but in playoffs, near best at 13 PPG and only 263 YPG): they will be key to winning if they can get pressure on Brady. KC's defense has a bad rep, but they have been better in the playoffs, and their DE Chris Jones is a stud right now (15.5 sacks this season). Then OLB Dee Ford has about 13 sacks. So, anything can happen if they can get after Brady and make him uncomfortable, but that's hard to do.
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Re: Re:

15 Jan 2019 00:24

on3m@n@rmy wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
Koronin wrote:Even though Mahomes is a young QB, KC does have the advantage of playing at home. That should count for something, plus Reid is a good coach. The big problem is that KC doesn't have a very good defense. That means their offense is going to have to put up points and likely touchdowns every time they put their hands on the ball.


I give both the Rams and the Chiefs a good chance of progressing. Their defense has to be at least as good as this week but Mahomes is looking good and Goff will gain confidence from that win. I'd prefer not to see another Patriots SB win...........

Both KC and LAR are legit contenders and can win these games. LAR are going to have to play smarter though; no more mental blunders leading to stupid costly penalties like Talib & Peters have had. But the Saints have not played well or played a complete game in their last 4 games. If the LAR can play a complete game and catch the Saints in a bad day....

Home field can count for something, but in playoffs vs legit playoff teams, meh, not sure how much. Reid is a great coach. Belichick is better. As for the alleged bad KC defense (near league worst in regular season at over 26 PPG allowed and over 405 YPG allowed; but in playoffs, near best at 13 PPG and only 263 YPG): they will be key to winning if they can get pressure on Brady. KC's defense has a bad rep, but they have been better in the playoffs, and their DE Chris Jones is a stud right now (15.5 sacks this season). Then OLB Dee Ford has about 13 sacks. So, anything can happen if they can get after Brady and make him uncomfortable, but that's hard to do.



Movingtarget, I'm with you on anyone but the Patriots.

on3m@n@rmy, I still remember how HORRIBLE Belichick was as the coach of the Browns before they moved to Baltimore. I despise him for what he did to that team and I'm a Steeler fan. So no Belichick is not a better coach than Reid is.
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 00:52

Wanted to shift gears and talk Kliff Kingsbury, the new AZ Cards HC. Who is Kingsbury? That was my first question when the hire was announced. Then found out why he was fired at Texas Tech; for poor defenses leading to losing records. So, the USC Trojans hired him as their new OC, for about one month until the Cards came calling with the HC offer. That is about where the negatives stop and the positives begin. USC wanted Kliff as their OC because during his college coaching career he had one of the nation's most explosive offenses since 2009 (at Houston, then Texas A&M, and then Texas Tech). He has coached the following notable QBs: Case Keenum, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield. OK, he also had Johnny Football, but won't hold that against Kingsbury. Here is the interesting part, and what I will be most interested in seeing what offense he brings to the NFL. In college, Kingsbury played for former TT HC Mike Leach, who ran the Air Raid spread offense. He ran his version of the Air Raid at TT, considered a pure version of Leach's Air Raid offense. So will Kingsbury bring the Air Raid offense to the NFL, and if so, will he be successful? We'll see. Some think the Air Raid is all about passing, which is not necessarily true. Kingsbury's offenses pass/run ratio has been about 50/50.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/8/17420264/texas-tech-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/1/2/18165433/kliff-kingsbury-cardinals-coach-hired

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/14/az-arizona-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-offense-texas-tech/
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15 Jan 2019 00:58

Bill at the Browns was a looooooooong time ago, as was Carroll at the Jets. But I never said Bill was ethically respected (e.g. spygate, deflategate maybe, or on certain departures, heck even dealing JG last year to SF was eyebrow-raising). It is on record from Jimmy Johnson saying Bill is the best X's and O's coach in the game, and Reid was a HC when he said that. For one: https://www.patriots.com/news/jimmy-johnson-on-bill-belichick-he-s-the-best-303806

Shift gear a bit, I will say, if there is a year, THIS is the year to beat the Pats. Next NFL draft they have something like 11 draft picks and likely will free up cap space (e.g. Gronk).
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15 Jan 2019 01:09

As long as Kingsbury hires a good defensive coordinator that could be ok.
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 02:47

on3m@n@rmy wrote:Wanted to shift gears and talk Kliff Kingsbury, the new AZ Cards HC. Who is Kingsbury? That was my first question when the hire was announced. Then found out why he was fired at Texas Tech; for poor defenses leading to losing records. So, the USC Trojans hired him as their new OC, for about one month until the Cards came calling with the HC offer. That is about where the negatives stop and the positives begin. USC wanted Kliff as their OC because during his college coaching career he had one of the nation's most explosive offenses since 2009 (at Houston, then Texas A&M, and then Texas Tech). He has coached the following notable QBs: Case Keenum, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield. OK, he also had Johnny Football, but won't hold that against Kingsbury. Here is the interesting part, and what I will be most interested in seeing what offense he brings to the NFL. In college, Kingsbury played for former TT HC Mike Leach, who ran the Air Raid spread offense. He ran his version of the Air Raid at TT, considered a pure version of Leach's Air Raid offense. So will Kingsbury bring the Air Raid offense to the NFL, and if so, will he be successful? We'll see. Some think the Air Raid is all about passing, which is not necessarily true. Kingsbury's offenses pass/run ratio has been about 50/50.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/8/17420264/texas-tech-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/1/2/18165433/kliff-kingsbury-cardinals-coach-hired

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/14/az-arizona-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-offense-texas-tech/


i think what some NFL observers are saying is true. Everyone is looking for the next Sean McVay...........
movingtarget
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 13:41

The one thing about Kingsbury to Arizona is that Rosen didn't really play in an offense like that in college. I also am concerned that the Air Raid offense is too much of a jump for the NFL, no matter who the QB is. Maybe I'm just looking back to the Houston Oiler run and shoot spread ("chuck and duck" Buddy Ryan called it), and how even with Warren Moon that offense couldn't hold entire games. So, it remains to be seen how it works. I fear Klingsbury is the next Chip Kelly also.

As to NE at KC, the forecast calls for temperatures in the single digits come game time. This will be the coldest game Mahomes has ever played in, by far. For Tom Brady, quite the opposite. Will that matter?

Agree on New England next year. Presuming Brady plays again, presuming they move on from Gronk, they have a fat draft, and decent cap space, making them a serious favorite for the 2020 Superbowl...already.
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 13:48

on3m@n@rmy wrote:Wanted to shift gears and talk Kliff Kingsbury, the new AZ Cards HC. Who is Kingsbury? That was my first question when the hire was announced. Then found out why he was fired at Texas Tech; for poor defenses leading to losing records. So, the USC Trojans hired him as their new OC, for about one month until the Cards came calling with the HC offer. That is about where the negatives stop and the positives begin. USC wanted Kliff as their OC because during his college coaching career he had one of the nation's most explosive offenses since 2009 (at Houston, then Texas A&M, and then Texas Tech). He has coached the following notable QBs: Case Keenum, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield. OK, he also had Johnny Football, but won't hold that against Kingsbury. Here is the interesting part, and what I will be most interested in seeing what offense he brings to the NFL. In college, Kingsbury played for former TT HC Mike Leach, who ran the Air Raid spread offense. He ran his version of the Air Raid at TT, considered a pure version of Leach's Air Raid offense. So will Kingsbury bring the Air Raid offense to the NFL, and if so, will he be successful? We'll see. Some think the Air Raid is all about passing, which is not necessarily true. Kingsbury's offenses pass/run ratio has been about 50/50.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/8/17420264/texas-tech-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/1/2/18165433/kliff-kingsbury-cardinals-coach-hired

https://cardswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/14/az-arizona-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-offense-texas-tech/

I think this is strange. I wan't the Cards to be better, but what do they see here? Like many have said, everyone is looking for the next McVay so I guess we'll see. As has been discussed, just being a good coach is only part of the job, can he be a leader of other coaches, 53 20-40 year old men (many with attitudes$$), and put all of that together day in and day out to bring a solid team to the field each week? He really needs Fitz to buy in and stay around another year. On the other hand, I guess I do like that they didn't just grab a coordinator from another team.
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 19:00

good points on Kingsbury & Rosen in Arizona.

Arctic blast for the AFC championship game? https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/kansas-city-weather-forecast-afc-championship-chiefs-patriots-cold
I don't trust weather predictions much at all, especially so early, but if true which team would it favor? I have an idea, and not KC.
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Re: National Football League

15 Jan 2019 20:06

Alpe d'Huez wrote:The one thing about Kingsbury to Arizona is that Rosen didn't really play in an offense like that in college. I also am concerned that the Air Raid offense is too much of a jump for the NFL, no matter who the QB is. Maybe I'm just looking back to the Houston Oiler run and shoot spread ("chuck and duck" Buddy Ryan called it), and how even with Warren Moon that offense couldn't hold entire games. So, it remains to be seen how it works. I fear Klingsbury is the next Chip Kelly also.

As to NE at KC, the forecast calls for temperatures in the single digits come game time. This will be the coldest game Mahomes has ever played in, by far. For Tom Brady, quite the opposite. Will that matter?

Agree on New England next year. Presuming Brady plays again, presuming they move on from Gronk, they have a fat draft, and decent cap space, making them a serious favorite for the 2020 Superbowl...already.


Yes the chances of the Patriots falling into 49ers or Browns type situations with their franchise seem remote even when Brady and co are gone. Been a long time since they were not relevant to playoff forecasts. What happens football wise after Bill B eventually moves on is another matter. But he should leave it in good shape at least.
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Re: National Football League

16 Jan 2019 18:42

movingtarget wrote:
Alpe d'Huez wrote:The one thing about Kingsbury to Arizona is that Rosen didn't really play in an offense like that in college. I also am concerned that the Air Raid offense is too much of a jump for the NFL, no matter who the QB is. Maybe I'm just looking back to the Houston Oiler run and shoot spread ("chuck and duck" Buddy Ryan called it), and how even with Warren Moon that offense couldn't hold entire games. So, it remains to be seen how it works. I fear Klingsbury is the next Chip Kelly also.

As to NE at KC, the forecast calls for temperatures in the single digits come game time. This will be the coldest game Mahomes has ever played in, by far. For Tom Brady, quite the opposite. Will that matter?

Agree on New England next year. Presuming Brady plays again, presuming they move on from Gronk, they have a fat draft, and decent cap space, making them a serious favorite for the 2020 Superbowl...already.


Yes the chances of the Patriots falling into 49ers or Browns type situations with their franchise seem remote even when Brady and co are gone. Been a long time since they were not relevant to playoff forecasts. What happens football wise after Bill B eventually moves on is another matter. But he should leave it in good shape at least.

That's why JG was a good thing, and why they need to draft a QB this year. One of the talking heads said that Craft has contacted Foles' agent. While that would be good short (ish) term for the Pats, it doesn't do anything for Nick really because he's still a back up so why move? I guess he might see Brady being out sooner than Wentz? I've also heard that the Giants, Broncos and Cards have contacted his agent...he's hot now. The Eagles have made it clear that they want to keep him obviously. Back to the Pats though, if they don't have a solid plan in place for TB's replacement, they might not fall like the Browns and Niners, but they will certainly fall.

EDIT: now add the Jags to the Foles lottery.
Last edited by jmdirt on 17 Jan 2019 13:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: National Football League

16 Jan 2019 22:19

jmdirt wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
Alpe d'Huez wrote:The one thing about Kingsbury to Arizona is that Rosen didn't really play in an offense like that in college. I also am concerned that the Air Raid offense is too much of a jump for the NFL, no matter who the QB is. Maybe I'm just looking back to the Houston Oiler run and shoot spread ("chuck and duck" Buddy Ryan called it), and how even with Warren Moon that offense couldn't hold entire games. So, it remains to be seen how it works. I fear Klingsbury is the next Chip Kelly also.

As to NE at KC, the forecast calls for temperatures in the single digits come game time. This will be the coldest game Mahomes has ever played in, by far. For Tom Brady, quite the opposite. Will that matter?

Agree on New England next year. Presuming Brady plays again, presuming they move on from Gronk, they have a fat draft, and decent cap space, making them a serious favorite for the 2020 Superbowl...already.


Yes the chances of the Patriots falling into 49ers or Browns type situations with their franchise seem remote even when Brady and co are gone. Been a long time since they were not relevant to playoff forecasts. What happens football wise after Bill B eventually moves on is another matter. But he should leave it in good shape at least.

That's why JG was a good thing, and why they need to draft a QB this year. One of the talking heads said that Craft has contacted Foles' agent. While that would be good short (ish) term for the Pats, it doesn't do anything for Nick really because he's still a back up so why move? I guess he might see Brady being out sooner than Wentz? I've also heard that the Giants, Broncos and Cards have contacted his agent...he's hot now. The Eagles have made it clear that they want to keep him obviously. Back to the Pats though, if they don't have a solid plan in place for TB's replacement, they might not fall like the Browns and Niners, but they will certainly fall.


The main issue is money. Bill must have known that as soon as Jimmy hit free agency and started receiving offers that would have meant the Patriots were out of the picture anyway. Browns were peeved that Bill turned down a better trade offer to send him to the 49ers where he supposedly has some friends and thought he would also put Jimmy in a potentially better situation than the Browns dumpster fire at the time. As we now know it's the Browns that have kicked on better than the 49ers but the good intentions were there.

Eagles can only keep Foles if they under pay what he is worth on the market. Foles as most players would, knows he has better options financially and will wait for the offers. Won a SB, been to the playoffs two years running. Many teams can't say that about their current QB. Wentz is only 25 and he is good enough to stick with but many are convinced that Foles is their better option at least as of now

Patriots can't lose Brady and eventually Bill B without losing out plus some of their other quality veteran players will be also gone. They might fall maybe to the middle of the pack which many won't be too upset about. If they select the wrong coach or QB then it could always be worse. Would be nice to see some other teams share the spoils and they have had a great run over a long period of time. Cowboys are improving, Kansas and the Rams will continue to be there. The Cardinals results speak for themselves and the Steelers are on a downward trajectory as are the Packers so some new teams will emerge in the playoffs. Patriots have plenty of draft picks this year and they need to hit pay dirt with a few re the future.
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Re: National Football League

18 Jan 2019 01:23

The next NFL Manning, Arch Manning (son of Cooper M, nephew of Peyton & Eli), a 2027 draft pick?
https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1086050195337555970?s=20
Genetics
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Re: National Football League

18 Jan 2019 13:05

on3m@n@rmy wrote:The next NFL Manning, Arch Manning (son of Cooper M, nephew of Peyton & Eli), a 2027 draft pick?
https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1086050195337555970?s=20
Genetics


Is that good for that age? I know very little but he looks around 11-12 and can throw a football to the one person on the field with no defence. I'm pretty sure I could do that when I was that age.
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18 Jan 2019 15:33

Or, he could end up the next Todd Marinovich.

Seriously, how many people at that age can anyone say with any certainty how their future career will turn out? Still, food for thought I guess.

In other news, the Alliance of American Football debut is just over a week away, and one game will be on CBS, with lots of web streaming. It looks like this league is trying to place itself above any of the semi-pro or developmental leagues, or indoor leagues, but not compete with the NFL in any way. So, you'll see players like Christian Hackenberg, They see a void there, insatiable football fans who don't get enough, and they might be right. This void was also somewhat left by the XFL. At issue is the XFL returns in 2020 (probably), as does the Freedom Football League, which has similar roots - lots of backing by ex-pros and some ex-NFL execs.

What's most interesting to me is the very progressive rule changes, and that I think there's a very good chance one of these leagues will survive beyond 2021, or swallow the others, merge with them, and a potential legit "minor league" football that enough fans pay attention to may survive out of this. The biggest mistakes that the USFL, WFL, and even XFL made were that they tried to compete with the NFL, or present themselves as an alternative to the NFL, and each of them died trying. Usually because they simply didn't have deep enough pockets to handle a loss leader, were too risk averse, or didn't have enough sustained broadcast numbers. The latter may not be as big of issue due to the web and streaming.

There's a lot more to comment on this, and I'll try next week.
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Re: National Football League

18 Jan 2019 16:50

The kid is good for that age, but not superhuman. It is what Alpe says, food for thought.

Someone should try bring Australian Rules Football here.
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Re: National Football League

18 Jan 2019 19:32

on3m@n@rmy wrote:The next NFL Manning, Arch Manning (son of Cooper M, nephew of Peyton & Eli), a 2027 draft pick?
https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1086050195337555970?s=20
Genetics

While age is a very important part of the discussion because one year can make a huge difference, every QB at the BSU Jr Bronco camp can do that.
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19 Jan 2019 16:50

If DNA were that much of a factor, Joe Montana’s sons Nate and Nick, at least one of them would have made it in the NFL. Both did play football in college, Nate at a few different schools, and Nick played fairly well in two seasons at Tulane. Neither were drafted or played a down in the NFL. I can't find a link but I seem to recall hearing Nate made no attempt to get into the NFL, and after getting into trouble as a teenager, basically focused on completing college and moved on with his life. Not sure if Nick even attempted to walk on to an NFL team.

Some people may recall Jack Elway playing college at ASU, following in the footsteps of his father, and grandfather. He did okay, but he too had some issues in his young adulthood getting arrested once, didn't have what it took, or that much interest, and left football. He has completely moved on now, running a high end hat making company and not having much of anything to do with football.

I recall hearing something once about baseball pitchers. A manager or scout of an MLB franchise once said that who you were, who you were related to, who you knew, even who coached you growing up, all didn't make a lick of difference. If you were a young player in even an obscure college, even a tiny independent minor league, and you could throw a 90mph fastball with any accuracy at all, they'd find you. And it wouldn't take years to do so. I imagine the same applies to football. If you are a QB in high school and have a strong arm that's fairly accurate, and show a real interest in learning and growing, you've got a chance, regardless of who your parents were.

Final story. When I went to high school there was a super athlete named Derrick Glenn (I may have gotten his name wrong). He ran track, and played football, mostly as a wide receiver or tight end. But he was big, and fast with great hands. A men among boys. We thought he was the next Jerry Rice (showing my age here!). Well, he got out of school and went to the University of Nevada, mostly because of their coach, Chris Ault a hall of famer who developed the pistol, and he knew he'd get a real chance there. Well, he got to Nevada, and joined the squad with all the other "next Jerry Rices". He played some, did okay, never bad, never great. Didn't get drafted. Tried to walk on with I think the 49ers, didn't get anywhere, and that was it.

As Stan Brock told me, the difference between the best and worst players in the NFL is "this much" holding up a tiny gap between his massive thumb and forefinger.
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