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28 Apr 2012 10:27

rhubroma wrote:Liberals have a sense of the collective, conservatives don't. In this sense liberals (true liberals) conceptualize democracy as community based, by contrast conservatives understand it to be an elected cast to safegaurd all my money form everyone else


This is a s**** right?

Haidt was obviously wrong - it's clear leftists are great at empathy and totally understand their political opponants...
Waterloo Sunrise
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28 Apr 2012 13:44

The Hitch wrote:That map is the best from the ones i've seen, though tm surprised to see Rove list SC as a toss up, must be based on polling, in which case Rove isn't really offering his expertise.

Realistically, a state that Obama lost by 9 points in his golden election, is not going to go democrat as things stand.

Missouri should also be GOP, while Iowa dem. A

I suspect that if the race were held in a week, Romney would hold all the yellow states apart from Iowa, but it wouldnt matter because as the map shows the dems already win.

From maps like this, if i were Romney i would spend a few thou into extensive polling in Iowa to see what the chances are, and unless i got good news from there, plough all resources into 2 states - New Hampshire and Ohio.

With Virginia and Florida, he jut needs to pray.


The fact this is even being discussed in modern times is maddening. The electoral college is an outdated institution, and it disenfranchises people in most of the country during presidential elections. I live in Texas...does it mean anything if I vote, either way? Of course not.
"He called me a baboon, he thinks I'm his wife." - Al Czervik
User avatar ChrisE
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28 Apr 2012 14:33

Wouldn't mean anything without the ec either. 1 vote out of 130 million.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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28 Apr 2012 14:41

The Hitch wrote:Wouldn't mean anything without the ec either. 1 vote out of 130 million.


I understand your point and I really have no argument on its merits.

My point is the election is not national, and a person in a non-swing state knowing their vote meant something is important to me. Of course I am sure you will argue it does mean something, because if enough people support the same candidate in my state then those electoral votes would go that way. I really have no rebuttal to that.

An exreme example to make a point: The fact that somebody can win a large state by 1 vote, with say 30 electoral votes, and then still win the election by not gaining a single vote in a set of states that have a cumulative total of 29 votes doesn't set right with me. YMMV.
"He called me a baboon, he thinks I'm his wife." - Al Czervik
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28 Apr 2012 16:09

Waterloo Sunrise wrote:This is a s**** right?

Haidt was obviously wrong - it's clear leftists are great at empathy and totally understand their political opponants...


I'm not sure exactly what the left empathises with or understands today. The problem is, neither does the left.
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28 Apr 2012 18:31

The Hitch wrote:That map is the best from the ones i've seen, though tm surprised to see Rove list SC as a toss up, must be based on polling, in which case Rove isn't really offering his expertise.

Realistically, a state that Obama lost by 9 points in his golden election, is not going to go democrat as things stand.

Missouri should also be GOP, while Iowa dem. A

I suspect that if the race were held in a week, Romney would hold all the yellow states apart from Iowa, but it wouldnt matter because as the map shows the dems already win.

From maps like this, if i were Romney i would spend a few thou into extensive polling in Iowa to see what the chances are, and unless i got good news from there, plough all resources into 2 states - New Hampshire and Ohio.

With Virginia and Florida, he jut needs to pray.


He has more chances to win Virginia -and even Florida- than to win New Hampshire.
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28 Apr 2012 18:31

ChrisE wrote:The fact this is even being discussed in modern times is maddening. The electoral college is an outdated institution, and it disenfranchises people in most of the country during presidential elections. I live in Texas...does it mean anything if I vote, either way? Of course not.


You're so right.
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28 Apr 2012 19:10

Descender wrote:He has more chances to win Virginia -and even Florida- than to win New Hampshire.


Exactly. Thats why he needs to leave those alone and focus more on New Hampshire.

He needs to win all of them (unless he wins Iowa, which is why i say he should poll iowa first).

Florida and Virginia are 2 states a Republican should win in a close election. Ohio and New Hampshire are not.

I say New Hampshire rather than Iowa because its known for its "independent" population, its a smaller more compact state where resources are more effective, and most of all, as the former governor of the neighbouring state, he is well known there.

But if his polling shows Iowa is more favourable. He should focus there instead.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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28 Apr 2012 21:00

Alpe d'Huez wrote:I tend to agree with Hitch on this one. Though I found this from the article interesting:

Based on our analysis, Obama starts with a presumed base of 247 electoral votes, just 23 short of the magic number of 270 — but not all of them are truly secure. Romney starts with a much firmer but not ironclad 206. The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up votes.


However, here is Karl Rove's map from yesterday, which may be more (currently) accurate, and somewhat telling:

Image


I wouldn't trust any map published by Spin Dr. Karl (is he named after Marx?) 'gopaganda' Rove. :)

Is he not also raising shiploads of money for superpac American crossroads, trying to fetch a cool half a billion dollars before the election? What better way to do that than applying a bit of good old fearmongering (worked in the past to sway the entire population, why not try it out on you own gullible group of potential donors, to incentivize them a little)...

The map shows GOP worst fear. Total obamination. Oh no they take SC...:eek:
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28 Apr 2012 21:06

Bala Verde wrote:I wouldn't trust any map published by Spin Dr. Karl (is he named after Marx?) 'gopaganda' Rove.


I understand. But did you look closely at the map? I thought the map was pretty objective, and certainly not that biased towards Romney. Out of all the recent maps I've seen, it seems the most accurate.
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28 Apr 2012 21:17

Alpe d'Huez wrote:I understand. But did you look closely at the map? I thought the map was pretty objective, and certainly not that biased towards Romney. Out of all the recent maps I've seen, it seems the most accurate.


Bala is saying its deliberately being biased not towards Romney but against him, in order to scare the GOP into donating, but I don't see it.

Most politicos believe being optimistic is a far better way to motivate your side. The SC dem chairman for example responded by saying "for once I agree with Rove, every state is in play".

The republicans that have been taking the pessimistic view are the ones who are saying that Gop should abandon romney and focus entirely on congress, so if there was any strategy behind the map it would most probably be Rove saying GOP should forget about the White House for 2012.

But if you look at the numbers underneath the letters for each state, you can see the map is entirely based on polling, in SC's case the most recent poll (from December) being Obama +3 then Rove puts it down as a toss up, and you can see the "-3%"
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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28 Apr 2012 23:35

Good point Hitch.

Of course, anyone can make a map from polls.
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29 Apr 2012 03:03

The "Etch-a-sketch" campaign has begun.....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/28/eric-fehrnstrom-auto-bailout-mitt-romney_n_1461805.html

...and Huffington Post's electoral college map. Pretty similar to the others posted.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/general
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29 Apr 2012 12:18



Pretty funny that Obama supporters are making fun of Romney for being a blatant liar and opportunist.
"He called me a baboon, he thinks I'm his wife." - Al Czervik
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29 Apr 2012 19:00

Cobber wrote:The "Etch-a-sketch" campaign has begun...


I like this part:

Top Mitt Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom claimed that President Obama's auto bailout was the GOP presidential hopeful's idea. ..."The only economic success that President Obama has had is because he followed Mitt Romney's advice," Fehrnstrom added.

Say what???

...and Huffington Post's electoral college map.


Interesting that they have both Nevada and Colorado even, while all others have them leaning Obama. But they have NH solid Obama, when others have it a tossup.
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30 Apr 2012 16:09

Alpe d'Huez wrote:I like this part:

Top Mitt Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom claimed that President Obama's auto bailout was the GOP presidential hopeful's idea. ..."The only economic success that President Obama has had is because he followed Mitt Romney's advice," Fehrnstrom added.

Say what???
Maybe someone should point out to Fehrnstrom that Obama also followed Mitt Romney's advice on health care reform?

But anyway, this is Romney's problem. He can only run as the experienced business dude who makes the wise and learned business decisions, so it has to be twisted around as much as possible to portray Romney as being on the right side of everything business-related. If it becomes common knowledge that he was wrong, as he was on the auto bailouts - and not only wrong, but 180 degrees wrong - his credibility in the one area that could get him elected is shot and he's toast.

btw, remember when Romney was for stimulus spending, infrastructure spending, and investment in renewable energy?

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/226567/republican-stimulus-plan/mitt-romney
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30 Apr 2012 16:26

VeloCity wrote:Maybe someone should point out to Fehrnstrom that Obama also followed Mitt Romney's advice on health care reform?

But anyway, this is Romney's problem. He can only run as the experienced business dude who makes the wise and learned business decisions, so it has to be twisted around as much as possible to portray Romney as being on the right side of everything business-related. If it becomes common knowledge that he was wrong, as he was on the auto bailouts - and not only wrong, but 180 degrees wrong - his credibility in the one area that could get him elected is shot and he's toast.



The funny thing is GM would still be around without the bailout. That's what bankruptcy is for (and they filed anyway).

The big difference is the structural problems that still exist would have been dealt with. Essentially, what the administration did was flush bond holders and replace them with the UAW as a stakeholder. Oh, and flush 30 or 40 billion dollars. But who's counting anymore, right?

Btw, does it bother you that GM took advantage of the tax code and paid zero taxes on billions in profit last year? Yeah, I didn't think it would.

And what does GM make? Oh yes, fossil fuel burning internal combustion engines placed in automobiles that transport individuals. Defending GM must present quite a conflict for you.
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30 Apr 2012 18:27

Scott SoCal wrote:The funny thing is GM would still be around without the bailout. That's what bankruptcy is for (and they filed anyway).

The big difference is the structural problems that still exist would have been dealt with. Essentially, what the administration did was flush bond holders and replace them with the UAW as a stakeholder. Oh, and flush 30 or 40 billion dollars. But who's counting anymore, right?

Btw, does it bother you that GM took advantage of the tax code and paid zero taxes on billions in profit last year? Yeah, I didn't think it would.

And what does GM make? Oh yes, fossil fuel burning internal combustion engines placed in automobiles that transport individuals. Defending GM must present quite a conflict for you.
Well, let's look at what Romney said back then, in his own words:

If General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.
Hmm. Not exactly prescient, was he. And singing a bit of a different tune now, ain't he. It must present quite a conflict for you that by trying to take credit, Romney is tacitly admitting that Obama was right.

GM also makes the Volt. And without the bailout stimulus, there would be no revival of the electric car industry in the US, nor would the automakers have ever agreed to the raising of CAFE standards. The stimulus gave the feds the leverage to push for both. Now if we had listened to the Romney's, we really would be stuck with a fossil-fuel-based, low mileage auto industry well into the future...if there were an auto industry at all, that is.

But really, this simply goes back to your inability to accept that sometimes government has to step in where markets fail.

EDIT: Even The Economist admits that it was wrong in initially agreeing with Romney.

Free-marketeers that we are, The Economist agreed with Mr Romney at the time. But we later apologised for that position. "Had the government not stepped in, GM might have restructured under normal bankruptcy procedures, without putting public money at risk", we said. But "given the panic that gripped private purse-strings...it is more likely that GM would have been liquidated, sending a cascade of destruction through the supply chain on which its rivals, too, depended." Even Ford, which avoided bankruptcy, feared the industry would collapse if GM went down. At the time that seemed like a real possibility. The credit markets were bone-dry, making the privately financed bankruptcy that Mr Romney favoured improbable. He conveniently ignores this bit of history in claiming to have been right all along.
[url]
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/02/mitt-romney-and-car-industry
http://www.economist.com/node/16846494
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30 Apr 2012 19:49

User avatar VeloCity
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30 Apr 2012 21:07



LOL. Just like Al Gore invented the Internet, Romney invented the auto bailout. Gore was smart enough not to villify something before claiming he invented it. Romney, not so much.
"Listen, my son. Trust no one! You can count on no one but yourself. Improve your skills, son. Harden your body. Become a number one man. Do not ever let anyone beat you!" -- Gekitotsu! Satsujin ken
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