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12 Sep 2012 22:08

VeloCity wrote:Possibly just an anomaly or a bump after the DNC, but if this is even remotely true then Romney's toast.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248897-romney-losing-lead-among-men


Just 47 percent of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7 percentage points from his recent peak in April, while 49 percent rate him unfavorably. He’s numerically underwater in this group for the first time since February. The decline has occurred entirely among women registered voters – from 57-39 percent favorable-unfavorable in April to a numerically negative 46-50 percent now. That’s Obama’s lowest score among women voters – a focus of recent political positioning – in ABC/Post polls since he took office.


http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obamas-popularity-dips-underwater-for-romney-a-faint-favorability-bounce/

Of course, women tend to be fickle so.... maybe he can sing a little more Barry White. Rev it up a little.




(To the ladies, that was a joke).
Scott SoCal
 

13 Sep 2012 21:01

The Federal Reserve said it would launch a major new round of bond buying, extending the unconventional actions the central bank has unleashed since the financial crisis to support the precarious economic recovery. The central bank also released new forecasts for the economy, underscoring the weaker outlook. We covered the action here, including the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement at 12:30 p.m. and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15.


http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/13/live-blog-fed-decision-and-bernanke-press-conference-2/

Bernake's $40 Billion a month spending spree on mortgage backed securities until the economy improves. Non-ending Trillion dollar deficits and cheap money? Sound policy right there.



I think the first thing Romney's gonna do is fire that clown.
Scott SoCal
 

14 Sep 2012 03:45

Image
Not done with my drink till I've crunched all the ice crew
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14 Sep 2012 13:00

Scott SoCal wrote:Wow. This is a graph of the labor participation rate since January '02.

Image

Another chart... I'll let you pick out some things that are alarming;

Image

Notice the direction of all three lines (currently) and see if it matches up anywhere else on the chart. Uh oh...


Isn't/wasn't labour participation forecasted to decline anyway given the babyboomer's (1946-1964) (accelerated) retirements, which is also said to be the main driver behind claims about the insolvency of social securit and rising medical costs?
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14 Sep 2012 13:10

VeloCity wrote:Possibly just an anomaly or a bump after the DNC, but if this is even remotely true then Romney's toast.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248897-romney-losing-lead-among-men


Made me think of http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-republican-convention-emphasizes-diversity-racial-incidents-intrude/2012/08/29/b9023a52-f1ec-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html:D

“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.). “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”


Anyway, now security of embassies is top of the list (which I think in approps bills over the years has increased significantly; would have to check), did anyone see this little gem:

The 2009 Government Accountability Office report noted that the embassy in Baghdad, one of the largest in the world, maintained a fleet of 914 armored vehicles, one-third of the total worldwide, at an average cost of $173,000 per vehicle.


That's an expensive fleet.
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14 Sep 2012 13:36

Bala Verde wrote:Isn't/wasn't labour participation forecasted to decline anyway given the babyboomer's (1946-1964) (accelerated) retirements, which is also said to be the main driver behind claims about the insolvency of social securit and rising medical costs?


Sure. Is that what you think explains the steeper decline since 2008?
Scott SoCal
 

14 Sep 2012 14:30

Scott SoCal wrote:Sure. Is that what you think explains the steeper decline since 2008?


I am just asking if it can partially explain what's happening? People born in '46 are turning 66 now [2012] and I think a number of people generally retire earlier then that, or the 'legal' retirement age (when you are allowed to draw social security; USA = 65?).

According to the OECD (in 2007) the average OECD retirement age is around 64; the US is slightly higher, if I read the graph correctly, I'd guess it to be around 65/66?

Image

here's another graph "Age of labour force exit:" The US is around 64.6 here.

Image
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14 Sep 2012 14:44

Scott SoCal wrote:Sure. Is that what you think explains the steeper decline since 2008?
Demographics does explain a chunk of it, as does other factors - people drop out of the labor force for a number of reasons (going back to school, starting a family, have made enough money they don't need to work, etc), not just because they can't find work.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-gongloff/labor-force-participation-rate_b_1865027.html

The number of Americans the BLS says are "not in the labor force" has risen by 2.7 million in the past year, to 88.9 million. That sounds bad -- nearly three million people dropping out of the job market.

But of that 88.9 million, just a little less than 7 million people who are out of the labor force say they still want a job. That is a horribly high number. But it has only grown by 488,000 in the past year. In other words, of the 2.7 million people who have dropped out of the labor force in the past year, about 2.2 million of them say they're not interested in finding a job anyway.

And what are the majority of these 2.2 million people who don't want a job doing instead? Retiring, it seems. About 1.6 million people who have dropped out of the labor force in the past year are 65 and over, according to the BLS.

That leaves another 600,000 dropping out for other reasons besides retirement or an inability to find a job. Some could be teens going back to school -- the number of teenagers not in the labor force has grown by 245,000 in the past year. People could be going to college to get better skills. Unfortunately, we don't know for sure, because the BLS doesn't have a detailed breakdown of what people do when they leave the labor force.

But we shouldn't just assume that everybody dropping out of the labor force, or even most of the people dropping out, are doing so because they're simply discouraged. We just don't know that for sure.
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14 Sep 2012 14:46

"Obama sympathizes with attackers in Egypt. Sad and pathetic."

Rush Limbaugh? Sean Hannity? Nope. Reince Priebus, Chairman of the RNC.

Yep, grown ups.
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14 Sep 2012 15:09

VeloCity wrote:Demographics does explain a chunk of it, as does other factors - people drop out of the labor force for a number of reasons (going back to school, starting a family, have made enough money they don't need to work, etc), not just because they can't find work.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-gongloff/labor-force-participation-rate_b_1865027.html


Spin.

I don't think anybody is saying the participation rate is solely due to a crappy economy. But that's the vast majority of it.

So, to say that the private sector is not great but not doing too badly or something to that effect is just spin. This economy is in trouble and Bernanke's latest open ended print money fest is nothing more than the last gasps of an utterly clueless administration. And don't bother writing about the Fed being independent.
Scott SoCal
 

14 Sep 2012 15:12

VeloCity wrote:"Obama sympathizes with attackers in Egypt. Sad and pathetic."

Rush Limbaugh? Sean Hannity? Nope. Reince Priebus, Chairman of the RNC.

Yep, grown ups.



Interesting comments coming from Germany today.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-press-review-on-middle-east-violence-against-us-embassies-a-855835.html

Given this latest blow up and the state of our economy do you still think BO to be a shoe-in for re-election?
Scott SoCal
 

14 Sep 2012 18:05

Mitt Romney defines middle income as between $200,000 and $250,000 a year and less

Pretty liberal interpretation of the actual distribution's central tendency, as $250K puts a household in the 97.13 percentile.
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14 Sep 2012 22:20

Scott SoCal wrote:http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/13/live-blog-fed-decision-and-bernanke-press-conference-2/

Bernake's $40 Billion a month spending spree on mortgage backed securities until the economy improves. Non-ending Trillion dollar deficits and cheap money? Sound policy right there.



I think the first thing Romney's gonna do is fire that clown.


Rating firm Eagan-Jones downgrades US credit again to AA-.

To say they are not impressed with QEIII would be accurate.

Been a real bad week for Barry.
Scott SoCal
 

14 Sep 2012 22:59

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14 Sep 2012 23:21



Why is Obama gutless? He 'asked' a private company to do something that he knew they would say 'no' to, knowing full well that he couldn't order them to remove the film clip. He's merely going through the expected political window dressing motions. I really don't see what's gutless about that. The executive already has way too much power since 9/11, thank God they can't use 'national security' as a blanket excuse for everything.
The LOTE has won, all hail the LOTE!
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15 Sep 2012 01:01

"He's merely going through the expected political window dressing motions."

Huh?

Trying to calm things down in a sneaky way then?

I dont get it.
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15 Sep 2012 20:00

President Obama’s ‘proud’ statements on improving US image might boomerang

President Obama has said that elevating the image of the United States around the world was one of his proudest foreign policy accomplishments, but those remarks could boomerang and hamper his reelection bid.

The violence and anti-American protests throughout the Middle East are bringing fresh attacks on the president’s foreign policies as Muslim rage is intensifying in the region.

The protests that have spread could undercut one of the key tenants of Obama's foreign policy argument that he has restored the U.S. image in the Middle East.

In February, Obama said, “One of the proudest things of my three years in office is helping to restore a sense of respect for America around the world, a belief that we are not just defined by the size of our military.”


http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/249651-obamas-proud-statements-on-improving-us-image-might-backfire



Asked if he considered the current Egyptian government an ally of the United States, President Obama Wednesday balked.

“You know, I don’t think that we would consider them an ally but we don’t consider them an enemy,”


Oops. Obama meant to say that Egypt is an ally. Except when they aren't. Are we clear on that?

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/it-depends-on-what-the-meaning-of-ally-is/
Scott SoCal
 

15 Sep 2012 22:12

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16 Sep 2012 04:04

Not done with my drink till I've crunched all the ice crew
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16 Sep 2012 04:13

Scott SoCal wrote:Spin.

I don't think anybody is saying the participation rate is solely due to a crappy economy. But that's the vast majority of it.

So, to say that the private sector is not great but not doing too badly or something to that effect is just spin. This economy is in trouble and Bernanke's latest open ended print money fest is nothing more than the last gasps of an utterly clueless administration. And don't bother writing about the Fed being independent.


It's the "economy" Scott, not the putative administrator. Won't change no matter who is elected. By the way, when did the market become the problem of the admin?
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