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TDF 2012: Titans Collide. Dennis Menchov Versus Cadel Evans...possible rivalry.

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12 May 2012 01:17

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:yeah kinda. in top form i think they are eachother equal in TT, in a long TT gesink slightly better in a short TT Nibali slightly better. Also depends on how technical the short itt is.


There may also be the factor of Nibali perhaps improving more the tt recently, whereas Gesink was great to start with, as the top 10 in olympics shows.

Gesinks tt is underated, because when he is awful he is truly awful, but when he is on tt form, he can be a very good tter.

Personally I expect Nibali to slightly out tt Gesink in the Tour, but neither is going to have it as a strengh and both will lose a few minutes to Wiggins Evans Menchov, 1 or 2 less to Sanchez, and gain on Rolland VDB and i think Andy too.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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12 May 2012 01:31

Galic Ho wrote:In Australia right now? Hell no. I loath our Federal Govt. Worst one in history. Worst Prime Minister in History. Ironically the last time their opposition were in power (2007) the best govt in living memory and PM we've ever had were voted out for a bunch of muppets.


I know it's a bit far-fetched, but you wouldn't perhaps be prone to hyperbole now and then, would you?
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12 May 2012 02:41

Galic Ho wrote:It'll be even funnier if a team mate beats him. Rogers racing? How about Froome? Gosh, what about Richie Porte? Now that would be rich. :p

Sky have a solid gold winner, goes by the nickname Frodo. Cav should have the entire backing of the team. Tell Brad, he can always take on Contador in the Vuelta when the Tour doesn't go to shape. See how his climbing legs go there against a guy who can time trial and beat the world champion at the time in the decisive Tour chrono.:eek: Brad should have been focusing on the Olympics, something he has a proven record in. Oh, but then that would mean his super inflated salary wouldn't be justifiable...my bad. Of course, focus on the thing you dream about and have never shown form for which one can rationally consider you winning. Ricco has about as much chance of having that 12 year ban being overturned as Bradley Wiggins has of winning the Tour. It'd take a miracle. Namely every major rival crashing out. Not going to happen.


He will still probably loose to Karpets.
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12 May 2012 03:56

Leave politics out of this thread, please. There is a thread in General for that.

Wiggo had bad luck last year. I'd say he would have top 5'd then. I do hope Wiggo is in top form for the Tour, hasn't peaked too early. Evans v Menchov v Wiggo in ITT will make it very interesting, instead of a forgone conclusion.

Menchov's major disadvantage at this point is his team. SKY and BMC are much stronger. Sky are looking good ATM.
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12 May 2012 04:09

eljimberino wrote:Leave politics out of this thread, please. There is a thread in General for that.

Wiggo had bad luck last year. I'd say he would have top 5'd then. I do hope Wiggo is in top form for the Tour, hasn't peaked too early. Evans v Menchov v Wiggo in ITT will make it very interesting, instead of a forgone conclusion.

Menchov's major disadvantage at this point is his team. SKY and BMC are much stronger. Sky are looking good ATM.


Only a disadvantage if there are crashes or splits. Otherwise he just follows wheels 21 days.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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12 May 2012 04:53

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Are you really sure of this?
Image
ofcourse skip the TTT's (so 5-3). But still, it isn't even certain Nibali would beat Gesink. Although Gesink has been crappy this year all around (or actually, only his TT has been decent so far).


Any such comparisons are quite conditional, you know. The guys are at too different levels of motivation, preparedness etc. during the season. Yes, the numbers are for Gesink. But the TdF 40+k TT is an absolutely special category and I won't discuss.. I just wanted to say TT's won't help Nibali to get podium or top-5. They will only distance him from that.

" wrote:In what world is Wigans a higher favourite than Cadel Evans? Or Dennis Menchov? Let alone he compare to Vincenzo Nibali? All these men have cajones. Big ones. They've taken on giants in the world of cycling and beaten them. Wigans biggest wins were in races most top GC riders used as training runs.

What's the difference? We need something to make predictions and have nothing but the results of this season. At that, they were equal climbers in their only mutual battle in the 2009 Tour and since then Wiggo got stronger. Wiggins will win a lot in TT's whereas Nibali is very limited in ability to gain the time on the climbs considering his overly defensive style.


The fact that for his entire GT career Nibali has demostrated the only downhill raid (when the circumstances and the natural course of the race allowed him to do that and we all know what it was worth the day after) and some folks operate with it as a bit of a help in the fight for the podium truly makes me laugh. You rate Nibali higher than Andy and get surprised that people rate Wiggins way higher than Nibali?? LOL. :)

just the Dauphine, a race he flogged himself to win and his rivals you conveniently failed to note used as a meagre training ride.

I think, the Tour contenders never ride Dauphine full blast and have a certain reserve of form in stock as they go there to prepare for the Tour rather than to win at any cost. If a rider is not Moreau or Valverde, he always prefers to sacrifice Dauphine feeling that it may prevent him from showing the best possible result in July. I don't understand why one thinks that Wiggo reached his peak too early last year. Does Wiggins need an absolute peak to win Dauphine? NO.
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12 May 2012 09:02

Galic Ho wrote:Why? Take Evans for example. He was forced to ride the 2010 Giro and have an early season so BMC could get a Tour invite. Evans was in yellow when the day he crashed. He'd arguably have podiumed that race.
Personally I'd like to see Roland or Voeckler make the podium.


I would like them to go well in this TDF too but i doubt it with the ITT's.

Shleck will finish higher than Rolland and Voeckler might not get as much freedom ( though at the Ardennes this year he did great ).

Valid points with Wiggins but maybe a bit too harsh ( Samu and Andy have never won either ) yet they still could.

Glad to see someone agrees with me about Evans probably podiuming in 2010.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

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D&C "He will soon..."
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12 May 2012 09:44

Galic Ho wrote:The big deal was the most spectacular stage of any Tour since 2007, you thought Wiggins pulled 90 seconds over 8km on his rivals. Big names. Evans, Kloden and Armstrong. Evans was a basket case in 2009. He was off form. Massive issues were unfolding at Lotto. Take a few days later, Evans was riding with the Groupetto. The Autobus. Perhaps you forgot this? Or how about what Kloden and Armstong did on stage 17?

IMO, Wiggins best form was in 2009 in a GT. Ironically and sadly it's been noted for a very long time round this forum, 2009 involved a lot of soft pedalling for Armstrongs benefit. Hence Wiggins less than impressive 2010 and also by merit Armstrong. Yes he has improved, quite a lot. But what is your aim as a rider? Your preparation? Then compare to your rivals. Winning the Dauphine ahead of Cadel showed nothing. It was very clear Cadel was aiming for the Tour last year. Every race he had to show form he did and naturally he won. Cadel learnt that very vital thing needed to back his evident talent. Timing. You get it wrong on a stage and worse, throughout a season, you can leave with nothing. Evans had the form in 2010, but his timing was off because he had to race events for the team to get invites. Events he eliminated in 2011 and thus received his due reward...he won a lot of big races.

Wiggins would be best served building up to the Tour, not winning Paris Nice and the Dauphine BECAUSE he hasn't ever dazzled at the Tour when it was his major objective. Normally I would say race hard, go for broke, especially with Andy Schleck, but Wiggins doesn't have a shred of the overall talent Andy has. He has a portion in one category. A portion that only comes into play with a parcours like this years. That's not a strength you can bank a win on. You still have to make up the difference in the other field. One cannot sit on blindly and think they can get lucky and not improve their weak spot simply because some extra ITT km's get thrown in. Doesn't happen. Unless Wiggins climbing improves by a major factor, I mean to the degree Cobo improved last year, he won't win the Tour.

That's not picking on him. Certainly not saying he didn't deserve his wins in other races, but quantifying them in relation to his rivals efforts shows one thing. He's not favourite, no manner of wins before hand can conclude that he will reverse history. I don't think he is even warranted an assumed podium spot. God help him if Basso or Scarponi were at the Tour.


I don't even know what you just said.

To summarise your arguments:

1. Being beaten by Wiggins up a climb doesn't count unless it's over 90 seconds. Also, it doesn't count if it was soft pedaled, even if you can't keep up with Wiggins during the soft pedaled pace.

2. Winning prep races is important, except when Wiggins does it.

3. Comparing yourself to rivals in prep races is valuable, except when Wiggins wins.

4. Overdoing it early season can ruin your Tour, and Wiggins has over done it. But Wiggins 2010 failure wasn't because he overdid it, even though he overdid it. And is overdoing it again this year.

5. When Wiggins win he's on top-form, and others aren't. When Wiggins loses he's on top-form and just sucks.

6. Wiggins hasn't improved since 2009, and hasn't even tried to. He just sits on and hopes.

Accurate representation of that mass of contradictions?
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12 May 2012 10:05

Galic Ho wrote: Gosh, if Andy Schleck and team try hard turn up with their heads screwed on properly Wigans and Sky could be seriously railed in the mountains. They have nobody who can match what those men can throw out if they get their act together.


He will actually have quite a strong team for the mountains. Logically Froome and Porte. Rogers, Zandio and maybe even Uran will also be in it.

BMC will also do the same role in the mountains as Sky.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

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D&C "He will soon..."
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12 May 2012 11:32

lol airstream disregarding any performance not happening in a tour to judge a rider and calling nibali a defensive climber.

you most be the only person on this forum who still thinks that.
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12 May 2012 11:38

madly defensive if we say about high mountains. surving and only surviving. there's nothing to discuss about. that's a common truth. why? i'm saying about gt's. only gts have sterling high mountain stages giving an adequate food for thinking.
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12 May 2012 12:38

airstream wrote:madly defensive if we say about high mountains. surving and only surviving. there's nothing to discuss about. that's a common truth. why? i'm saying about gt's. only gts have sterling high mountain stages giving an adequate food for thinking.
Where have you been all these years? Just watching races in July? Nobody wins a GT by being defensive.
Do you want to watch better bike racing? => Team radios (not race radio) must go!
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12 May 2012 12:41

cineteq wrote:Where have you been all these years? Just watching races in July? Nobody wins a GT by being defensive.


Aha, one won the GT at the expense of the race leader's misfortune and a catastrophical inability of other guys to ride TT.
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12 May 2012 21:41

hatcher wrote:I don't even know what you just said.

To summarise your arguments:

1. Being beaten by Wiggins up a climb doesn't count unless it's over 90 seconds. Also, it doesn't count if it was soft pedaled, even if you can't keep up with Wiggins during the soft pedaled pace.

2. Winning prep races is important, except when Wiggins does it.

3. Comparing yourself to rivals in prep races is valuable, except when Wiggins wins.

4. Overdoing it early season can ruin your Tour, and Wiggins has over done it. But Wiggins 2010 failure wasn't because he overdid it, even though he overdid it. And is overdoing it again this year.

5. When Wiggins win he's on top-form, and others aren't. When Wiggins loses he's on top-form and just sucks.

6. Wiggins hasn't improved since 2009, and hasn't even tried to. He just sits on and hopes.

Accurate representation of that mass of contradictions?


This made me laugh :D
Moser fanboy.

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12 May 2012 23:50

airstream wrote:Any such comparisons are quite conditional, you know. The guys are at too different levels of motivation, preparedness etc. during the season. Yes, the numbers are for Gesink. But the TdF 40+k TT is an absolutely special category and I won't discuss.. I just wanted to say TT's won't help Nibali to get podium or top-5. They will only distance him from that.


Gesink has to finish the race first. Lots of potential but same deal as Wiggins. It's what I have been saying for years. Until they get up and go boom and beat rivals at the big event, then it's all just banter and chit chat. Menchov, Evans and Nibali have all done this. So too Contador, Scarponi, Basso and Valverde. All these guys are GT winners, ok some by default, but they all still at least made second. Thus add in Andy Schleck.


What's the difference? We need something to make predictions and have nothing but the results of this season. At that, they were equal climbers in their only mutual battle in the 2009 Tour and since then Wiggo got stronger. Wiggins will win a lot in TT's whereas Nibali is very limited in ability to gain the time on the climbs considering his overly defensive style.


At least I mentioned the guys in the title of thread. Poms came in and hijacked it and made it about Wiggins. Fanboy love, you can't beat it. Look at my above paragraph. Yes Wiggins has theoretically gotten stronger, but he hasn't proven that in a GT. Third place and losing the Vuelta for your team mate against the weakest GT field in a considerable time doesn't imbed one with conference...unless of course you are a fanboy. Nor does it negate the fact that a week long race is vastly different to a three week GT. Plenty of decent talked up riders have won these races, Paris Nice, Tour de Suisse, the Dauphine, Tirreno Adriatico...how many then backed it up by winning a GT let alone in the same year? Not many. All these guys talking Wiggins up are comparing apples and oranges. Banking on a chrono of all things isn't enough when you are so susceptible climbing. It doesn't add up...he won't podium if he hasn't improved and I've seen no proof that his climbing has improved in the final week of a GT to sustain any time gain in a ITT. He has too many unknowns. The guys I mentioned do not. They have small gaps in their armour, Wiggins in some parts has no armour. Menchov and Evans are the best all rounders riding the Tour with the records at GT's to prove it. That was my main point. They should be considered favourites if their health is good and they appear to be in shape. Racing quickly shows whether you are or are not.

The fact that for his entire GT career Nibali has demostrated the only downhill raid (when the circumstances and the natural course of the race allowed him to do that and we all know what it was worth the day after) and some folks operate with it as a bit of a help in the fight for the podium truly makes me laugh. You rate Nibali higher than Andy and get surprised that people rate Wiggins way higher than Nibali?? LOL. :)


Don't get ahead of yourself. I said in a downhill section that may or may not play a part in a race. It's a theoretical chance for something to happen. Honestly, go ask any pro, who would you ride behind going downhill? Andy Schleck would be one of the last names. Franck is worse. Cancellara ain't there, Andy is hugely suspect. Other than Hushovd or Cancellara, you'd want to be following Nibali. He is that good. So keep it in context. In the chance event those stages with downhill descents to the finish are raced hard and a small group is at the front, the possibilty exists for someone to make some time. Evans did it to AC and Samu last year. Didn't get a lot of time, but got enough on Andy and Franck for it to hurt. It's the cumulative effect dude. Adding all the little gains and losses...those make the race. Thus bringing it back to Wiggins, his uphill ascents are as big of potential time losses as Andy Schleck's chrono. Yet who is being talked up as no chance and who is being spoken about as a winner? That's the lol part...Andy Schleck, whom I don't really like, is being vastly underestimated. Amazing rider if he gets his s%#& together who could win. Again, he has the record...just needs that killer mentality.

I think, the Tour contenders never ride Dauphine full blast and have a certain reserve of form in stock as they go there to prepare for the Tour rather than to win at any cost. If a rider is not Moreau or Valverde, he always prefers to sacrifice Dauphine feeling that it may prevent him from showing the best possible result in July. I don't understand why one thinks that Wiggo reached his peak too early last year. Does Wiggins need an absolute peak to win Dauphine? NO.


I agree but not with your final question. Wiggins did go full blast...the fanboys just don't see it. Where Andy Schleck makes the mistake of going **** weak at every build up race last season, I think Wiggins had the reverse. He went to hard. Threads about his super low body weight at season start. The man is super skinny. One fall and boom, broken bones. Race over. Contador and other riders however are slightly above race weight, but get down to it. It's about preparation. 2010 is evidence enought that Sky and Wiggins had no idea. Thus the lack of results. Hence the Wigans pun. They deserved it...still do to be honest.;) I'll phrase it this way, if there were no Tour de France in July and the Dauphine was raced harder by everyone, Wiggins would have been smacked senseless last June. The other racers held back. He didn't. Evans was coasting dude. Seriously coasting. Winning the Dauphine or Tour de Suisse before the Tour is giant indicator these days you were taking it too seriously. Notice what happened to Valverde when he stopped trying to win stages in a GT and get the glory. Won the Vuelta. You can' have your cake and it eat especially as a pro rider...unless you are a fanboy. You ahve to pick your targets. Wiggins wins this years Dauphine I will have proof he's going to have issues at the Tour. Heck, even Contador can't do it and weirdly enough he doesn't try to. Yet the Wiggins supporters think HE CAN. GTFO please and get your heads checked. Nobody claims this for ANY other rider. But no...lets buy into the myth of the exalted one. I've heard this line before. We all have. Lance fanboys ran it. Come back down to planet earth for a second and converse with real people. Wiggins won the Dauphine because he went much, much harder than any big name rival. They all correctly, used the race as training and as a trial for their form. Wiggins and Sky, like many Poms, are not that intelligent.

Who else went full blast early last year? Horner and Leipheimer. They really went for it and oddly enough were talked about quite heavily as RadioShack leaders. I knew team leader was Kloden, simply because of the manner in which they all raced and how they've done in the past with the same or differing build ups. Guess who confirmed at Tour's end who was team leader? Bruyneel. You can't go that hard that close to the biggest GT and expect to back it up. bad luck ruined the chance for us to see how they'd all have gone together. But Bruyneel did say their aim was Kloden...again, it was obvious. Just like Wiggins faults. Granted the man did well winning the Dauphine, but to extend that praise to lauding him as a favourite let alone winner for the Tour...jokes on the fanboys. It's why I said, Evans last year was almost a guaranteed winner. His build up wasn't wasting energy. He peaked right and his record for the year was sublime. This showed coming into the final week of the Tour. Zero incidents and strongest looking rider in the race. That's timing. The one thing he'd always missed. His timing other years was always off on something...like trying to beat Valverde at the Dauphine. Focus was off target. Get it right with the talent that has been proven and you are not only a rational and logical favourite, you deliver the damn goods. Wiggins has not done this. Menchov has.

That's the most important thing in your control. Timing. If your point were valid, Wiggins could win without going full blast, why hadn't he ever won anything as big as he did until last year? You casually ignore this and by doing so ignore that something had to change for him to improve. Worse it implies he wasn't trying before...or perhaps he was. Now we have a clinic issue if you explore all the implications these ideas create. Until you back up the talk and do the deed, there is no reason with his average form in comparison to his rivals, to suspect he can or will beat them at a GT where the best are gunning for the maillot jaune. He'll beat one or two of the vast numbers of guys who can top 10, but it's really stretching reality to think he'll win because there are so many unknowns. Those guys who I mentioned, as I said, if they are IN FORM, are naturally favourites ahead of him. Everyone talking him up, and I mean seriously talking him up, you are a fanboy. You've bought into the new myth. The new marketing fad. I'd understand it if his form had been there from the start but it simply hasn't. He's proof you can turn a donkey into a thoroughbred.
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13 May 2012 00:44

eljimberino wrote:Leave politics out of this thread, please. There is a thread in General for that.

Wiggo had bad luck last year. I'd say he would have top 5'd then. I do hope Wiggo is in top form for the Tour, hasn't peaked too early. Evans v Menchov v Wiggo in ITT will make it very interesting, instead of a forgone conclusion.

Menchov's major disadvantage at this point is his team. SKY and BMC are much stronger. Sky are looking good ATM.


True. But Bruyneel has won over what was it, 12 or 13 GT's with riders now? Sky directors have how many? Zero? A big fat naught and are banking on Wiggins of all people. Hop in a Delorean, travel back to 2006 and drop this pearler on cycling fans; "Bradley Wiggins is a GC rider and is a favourite to win the Tour de France." The laughter would echo to all corners of the globe.

I thought he might have made 5th last year, if lucky. But consider who came fifth. Contador. Really? I mean really, do we think he'd have matched the best GT rider of this generation who had won the hardest Giro in a long time a month earlier? I don't think so. Now consider the parcours changes. Yes, Wiggins specialty is more predominant this year. But will it make that much of a difference? I've made my stance clear.

Talking about bad luck, it is only bettered by rampant idiocy. Sky have that in spades. They should have won the Vuelta with Froome. It's that kind of utter failure to note a rider is superior to your team captain and focus on them that blows you a GT. Geox didn't have this problem now did they? Say what you want about the Russians, but their arrogance is no match for Brits. Katusha are not idiots. They have IMO equally good riders on their squad. Switch the focus from stage wins, slap it to supporting Dennis, they are a threat to be taken seriously because Menchov has the goods to be winning at the end of long climbs. Sky were very good at last years Tour, especially EBH, but their climing domestiques are suspect. Aussie speaking about Porte...good solid chrono, meh in the mountains. Nothing amazing. Sky's best riders are stage hunters, track guys and sprinters. Wiggins would ironically be better off with the climbing help Garmin offer. Oh I forgot, he now plays for Man Utd...who are about to lose their big goal to City. Parallels in soccer mirroring cycling...who'd a thought it?

Now I am not saying Sky don't have strengths. They do, but their total climbing pedigree minus Wiggins doesn't mean Wiggins can climb with the best in the final week of a GT. Sky can set all the pace they want leading up to a climb, but when the big boys go, the domestiques will all crack. If Andy Schleck goes ballistic, we'll see some poor domestique inevitably pulling Wiggins up hill because he foolishly thought he could match him. Heck, he can't match his own team mates at times in a GT and he is the captain! Worse, his bosses blindly focus all attention on him when he isn't the best. This predicament with team psychology and focus better correct itself for all the fanboys sake. If Wiggins doesn't have the form to be the best placed rider on Sky will the DS have the nads to switch focus? Yeah...I don't think so. BMC and Katusha don't have this dilemma.
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13 May 2012 00:56

hatcher wrote:I don't even know what you just said.

Accurate representation of that mass of contradictions?


To a fanboy, all that is clear when challenged, is that everything refuting the person/object of fanboy devotion is a contradiction.

Give yourself a pat on the back. ACF94 is no longer the biggest fanboy on this forum. You've usurped him. That is quite an effort. Bravo.:p

Enjoy rooting for Wiggins. I'll enjoy watching the riders I like do well. I'll also have a nice chuckle when Wiggins doesn't deliver. Oh and if Valverde races, let alone wins...I will be back to gloat. To everyone.:D
User avatar Galic Ho
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13 May 2012 01:07

Do any of your 1,312 posts not contain the word 'fanboy'?
User avatar Geraint Too Fast
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13 May 2012 07:26

Is anybody actually reading them?

Someone who spends 20 minutes drafting out a ****ing novella about a cyclist they don't like calling others a fanboy.
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13 May 2012 07:47

Galic Ho wrote: Aussie speaking about Porte...good solid chrono, meh in the mountains. Nothing amazing. Sky's best riders are stage hunters, track guys and sprinters. Wiggins would ironically be better off with the climbing help Garmin offer. Oh I forgot, he now plays for Man Utd...who are about to lose their big goal to City. Parallels in soccer mirroring cycling...who'd a thought it?
If Andy Schleck goes ballistic, we'll see some poor domestique inevitably pulling Wiggins up hill because he foolishly thought he could match him.

Wiggins is quite smart in not blowing up usually ( like Nibali in 2010 Vuelta )- the exception being Angrilu last year. Besides you were mainly talking about Andy's team as well not just Andy.

Porte may not be one of the best mountain climbers but he is still developing and has been quite solid this year ( in support of Wiggins )/ for himself in Volta Algarve.

Garmin are like Sky they will have a GC dude ( CVV ) and a sprinter in Farrar. As you have pointed out Froome also came 2nd in the Vuelta last year so he should provide good help.
The parallel of the soccer is confusing ( even though i know the story ) as Garmin i don't think have as big a goal as Sky at the TDF. BMC if anything fill in the idea of being the Man City of cycling.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

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"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
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