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47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

11 Apr 2012 22:16

Parrulo wrote:Rui is one of the biggest up and coming talents for the ardennes, why couldn't he get the win from a tactical move, or simply step up and win because he is strong? eventually some of the talented young guys have to step up.

just because he doesn't get talked up every 2 threads it doesn't mean he isn't a very talented rider.


Because he'll have to make his move and he won't just be watched. He'd be shut down. He's a talent but he isn't devastating like a Gilbert and lacks the speed of a Gerrans even.
gingerwallaceafro
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11 Apr 2012 22:22

Swede1 wrote:So is Samu doing this? It seems stupid not too. He is in really good shape and seems to be perfectly suited to this race with his finishing sprint.


he is not suited to this race. the climbs are too short. he isn't that explosive compared to gerrans, purito, sagan
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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11 Apr 2012 22:24

Parrulo wrote:Rui is one of the biggest up and coming talents for the ardennes, why couldn't he get the win from a tactical move, or simply step up and win because he is strong? eventually some of the talented young guys have to step up.

just because he doesn't get talked up every 2 threads it doesn't mean he isn't a very talented rider.


costa isn't improving much at all in this work so far
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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11 Apr 2012 22:31

Um... Sagan. Has he been tipped already? I'll go with him. I don't think Gerrans will get away from him this time.

I would love to see a lone winner, though. Purito, maybe? Tommy V?
User avatar mr. tibbs
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11 Apr 2012 22:32

Parrulo wrote:Rui is one of the biggest up and coming talents for the ardennes, why couldn't he get the win from a tactical move, or simply step up and win because he is strong? eventually some of the talented young guys have to step up.

just because he doesn't get talked up every 2 threads it doesn't mean he isn't a very talented rider.

He has good form, that's for sure. And he's a very smart rider. He might indeed find the winning move.
theyoungest
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11 Apr 2012 22:34

gingerwallaceafro wrote:Because he'll have to make his move and he won't just be watched. He'd be shut down. He's a talent but he isn't devastating like a Gilbert and lacks the speed of a Gerrans even.


gilbert wasn't exactly destroying the ardennes when he was 25 either, and lets not forget costa rides for unzue who likes to develop his riders very carefully and slowly. And costa isn't exactly slow either, granted he is no valverde who can actually rely on his sprint to win one of the ardennes classics but he is no schleck either.

Ryo Hazuki wrote:costa isn't improving much at all in this work so far


he isn't? do tell me why do you think he isn't improving.
User avatar Parrulo
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11 Apr 2012 22:36

It will be a question of whether Gilbert's explosiveness has taken as much as a hit as his stamina.

Amstel Gold Race is a pretty easy race for guys like Gilbert, Rodriguez, etc...

It is almost like awaiting a bunch sprint most of the time. If this happens then we have to keep in mind than an in-form Gilbert is much much faster here than anyone else.
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11 Apr 2012 22:37

Parrulo wrote:gilbert wasn't exactly destroying the ardennes when he was 25 either, and lets not forget costa rides for unzue who likes to develop his riders very carefully and slowly. And costa isn't exactly slow either, granted he is no valverde who can actually rely on his sprint to win one of the ardennes classics but he is no schleck either.



he isn't? do tell me why do you think he isn't improving.


Sorry why are we talking about Rui Costa as a contender for AGR?
gingerwallaceafro
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11 Apr 2012 22:40

Panda Claws wrote:It will be a question of whether Gilbert's explosiveness has taken as much as a hit as his stamina.

Amstel Gold Race is a pretty easy race for guys like Gilbert, Rodriguez, etc...

It is almost like awaiting a bunch sprint most of the time. If this happens then we have to keep in mind than an in-form Gilbert is much much faster here than anyone else.

Last year it was an 11 man group. If it's that selective, chances are Gilbert won't even be there for the finish.

Also, Sagan is much faster than Gilbert and is climbing a lot better at the moment.
maltiv
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11 Apr 2012 22:40

Ryo Hazuki wrote:he is not suited to this race. the climbs are too short. he isn't that explosive compared to gerrans, purito, sagan


I'd agree but still he has to be a top favorite. He can certainly finish top 5, and maybe he can get in a winning break and win. idk im not his biggest fan or anything, but I think he deserves to be one of the favorites.
Swede1
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11 Apr 2012 22:42

Panda Claws wrote:It will be a question of whether Gilbert's explosiveness has taken as much as a hit as his stamina.

Amstel Gold Race is a pretty easy race for guys like Gilbert, Rodriguez, etc...

It is almost like awaiting a bunch sprint most of the time. If this happens then we have to keep in mind than an in-form Gilbert is much much faster here than anyone else.


Have to disagree there Panda Claws, this is a full-on interval session of the highest order.. If you're not in great shape, you're not going to win.
gingerwallaceafro
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11 Apr 2012 22:42

gingerwallaceafro wrote:Sorry why are we talking about Rui Costa as a contender for AGR?


i think people were naming as an outside bet who could win from a tactical move. . . . if that makes him a contender for you so be it. And maybe because we have been discussing the possible winners for months now? And discussing the same thing over and over gets boring so focusing a bit on the outsiders is a nice breeze of fresh air to relieve the boredom?

also nice counter argument there ;)
User avatar Parrulo
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11 Apr 2012 22:44

maltiv wrote:Last year it was an 11 man group. If it's that selective, chances are Gilbert won't even be there for the finish.

Also, Sagan is much faster than Gilbert and is climbing a lot better at the moment.


i agree with this, AGR is selective and if gilbert is still on similar shape he has been for the past weeks he won't make the selection at all.

to be honest i think on the cauberg purito is faster then sagan, but the kid keeps proving me wrong every time i don't set the bar extremely high for him so . . . . .

liqui can also play the man up the road card with nibali who isn't fast enough to win on the cauberg so needs to go earlier, much like movistar, in order to force katusha and purito to work.
User avatar Parrulo
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11 Apr 2012 23:01

The 3 Ardennes races should be pretty open this year, which is great. I see Valverde as main contender for all the three, and without having won Amstel in the past, watch out for him on Sunday.
Vanendert could be great in the next 1 1/2 weeks, JRod, Samuel Sanchez, ...; even Thomas Dekker seems to be there in his comeback year.

Amstel weekend to Romandie closing weekend, for me the greatest two weeks in the calendar of pro road cycling. Looking forward to it.
RHRH19861986
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11 Apr 2012 23:13

A picture can say thousand words.

Image
Rest In Peace:
Craig Walsh 1985 - 2012
User avatar Havetts
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11 Apr 2012 23:16

Havetts wrote:A picture can say thousand words.

Image


I agree, after his dominating performance at the Brabantse Pijl, he'll unleash hell on the hills of Limburg. Looking forward to it.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


The Hitch wrote:Goss will woop boonens candy a[color="Black"]ss[/color] in a sprint he cares about, any day of the week
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11 Apr 2012 23:26

Havetts wrote:A picture can say thousand words.

Image


All aboard for a wild and ridiculous ride on the wagon.
Testing the bounds of reality.
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11 Apr 2012 23:28

Moreover, slightly disappointing to see Boonen not doing Amstel. One can understand him, he´s been racing since San Luis and won races every one, two weeks, and might be tired, but if he doens´t try Amstel this year, then probably never.
I remember Cancellara metioning he wanted to win LBL and Lombardia.
Instead, all the guys do their same races from year to year. You won´t see Valverde at Flanders, and no Cancellara in Liege.
I understand this, because they´d risk a lot, mainly leaving empty handed in all the races, but it´s great to also have few guys like Gilbert (who only leaves out Roubaix) or Sagan who is young and could be contender for the win in nearly every single big one day race. Fabio Felline is a guy who is also quite promising on what concerns a broad variety of one day races, unfortunately his development hasn´t been too impressive after a strong 2010.
RHRH19861986
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12 Apr 2012 00:56

My tip for the race shall be Gerrans, i think the race suits him. If Gilbert is not in form yet and Valverde does not go well here usually i think he can beat JROD ( under his new found form ).
Gerrans
JROD
Gilbert
Valverde
Sagan

Now for my long list of going through each team/ riders.
Gilbert may not be in great for but the Cauberg suits him. Evans and GVA will probably co-lead but Gilbert can still be a factor.
Nocentini??? Otherwise just get onto breaks.
Ponzi could have a chance if some of the the other riders ( Freire/ Sagan are there ). Strong team but lacking Kreuziger.
No idea for EE.
FDJ will attack a lot.
Hesjedal, Kreder, Martin and Wegmann could all go well ( strong team and various options ). They will be present and probably force a split along with BMC, Katusha and Movistar.
GE have a good team in Albasini and Clarke to go on the attack, whilst Gerrans conserves energy for the Cauberg.
Katusha have Freire, Moreno and JROD. They have an option for a sprint and Moreno to perfectly place JROD. Paolini will attack a bit i think.
It would be nice to see Cunego go well.
Nibali will probably not go great here ( even though he is looking much more explosive- Green Mountain Oman ) i think he could do better at F-W/ LBL but he will want the experience before the WC. Has Sagan who could do anything ( but maybe not this year ).
Vanendert and JVDB will make sure Lotto are present. They will only win if they can go solo.
Movistar have a strong team with Visconti, Costa, Kiryienka and Valverde ( as leader ). They could attack or ride at the front. Probably the team with the most options to aminate the race.
Chavanel wants to go well here- but Velits could go great ( Alpe D Huez sprint last year )- and i think he should at least co-lead.
Rabo have 2 cards in Breschel/ Gesink. They will want to go well in front of their home crowd. Martens and Mollema could also do something.
No idea about RSNT but strong team.
CAS???
Hoogerland and Poels will do well here. Westra could also attack on some hills preceding the Cauberg.
Geschke, Gatto, Voeckler ( has to be considered ), Serry ( surprised ), Wallays ( to get in a break maybe??? )
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

Quote:VAE
"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
greenedge
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12 Apr 2012 01:02

Rui Costa is not improving? After his superb 2011? :confused:

He must be one of the most underrated riders around here.
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