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47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

12 Apr 2012 07:16

Parrulo wrote: why couldn't he get the win from a tactical move


Ah yes, his trademark get in the break and do no work until the last K tactic;)
uphillstruggle
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12 Apr 2012 07:58

theyoungest wrote:Two certainties in this race:

1. Rabo will chase all day.
2. Rabo won't win.

Purito vs. Sagan vs. Gerrans (although the latter didn't seem that strong in Pais Vasco).


Sorry 3 certainties :
Yours two +
3. Hoogerland to launch suicidal attack :rolleyes:
User avatar Lexman
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12 Apr 2012 08:00

strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..
aahmadhu
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12 Apr 2012 08:06

Favourites :

J. Rodriguez
Gerrans
Cunego
Valverde
Sagan
to complete top 10
Freire
Vanendert
GVA
someone from Rabo
Marcato
someone from Topsport Vlaanderen

is Thomas de Gendt participating?
User avatar Lexman
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12 Apr 2012 08:38

hrotha wrote:Rui Costa is not improving? After his superb 2011? :confused:

He must be one of the most underrated riders around here.


Are you joking? He is hyped to hell for every race with a hill in it.
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12 Apr 2012 08:40

aahmadhu wrote:strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..


Usually the winner of Lombardia doesn't come from nowhere and has had results before and since such a victory. ;)
User avatar will10
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12 Apr 2012 09:01

Parrulo wrote:gilbert wasn't exactly destroying the ardennes when he was 25 either, and lets not forget costa rides for unzue who likes to develop his riders very carefully and slowly. And costa isn't exactly slow either, granted he is no valverde who can actually rely on his sprint to win one of the ardennes classics but he is no schleck either.



he isn't? do tell me why do you think he isn't improving.


becaus eunless I'm mistaken, which I think not he's never actaully even finished a classic race, expect lombardia 25th last year
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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12 Apr 2012 09:04

will10 wrote:Are you joking? He is hyped to hell for every race with a hill in it.


this exatcly. eveyr portugese rider is almost overrated here. for instance andre cardoso and hernani broco. they suck this year. I think cardoso is a great rider btw, but there was so much hype and I won't even begin about machado and rui costa
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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12 Apr 2012 09:04

aahmadhu wrote:strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..


uh no, that never happens unles sthat winner ha sbeen proven agr contender
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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12 Apr 2012 09:09

maltiv wrote:Last year it was an 11 man group. If it's that selective, chances are Gilbert won't even be there for the finish.

Also, Sagan is much faster than Gilbert and is climbing a lot better at the moment.


Sagan has yet to show that he is faster than Gilbert on something like the Cauberg.
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12 Apr 2012 09:13

Panda Claws wrote:Sagan has yet to show that he is faster than Gilbert on something like the Cauberg.


I would say if the race isn't aggressive enough and there's a reasonably sized group together at the bottom of the Cauberg, and Gilbert is still there, then Gilbert will win. But I think he'll be long gone. So Sagan won't need to be faster than Gilbert.
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12 Apr 2012 09:21

1.valverde
2.thomas dekker
3.tommy voeckler

or maybe voeckler first,i'm not sure
Vino 4ever
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12 Apr 2012 09:23

Ryo Hazuki wrote:uh no, that never happens unles sthat winner ha sbeen proven agr contender


Gilbert, Cunego, Bettini all are genuine Ardennes campaigners. I mean, it's been a while since the last time a preceeding Lombardia winner was not in the mix for a good Ardennes campaign. maybe it's just me.
Is Zaugg riding AGR btw?
aahmadhu
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12 Apr 2012 09:28

will10 wrote:I would say if the race isn't aggressive enough and there's a reasonably sized group together at the bottom of the Cauberg, and Gilbert is still there, then Gilbert will win. But I think he'll be long gone. So Sagan won't need to be faster than Gilbert.


I have always wondered about how sprinters manage to win hard hilly stages exhausted as ****. It would seem to me that their explosiveness largely remained intact. (See Cavendish losing contact on the Poggio and still winning.)

Does the same go for a Cauberg sprint?
User avatar Panda Claws
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12 Apr 2012 09:28

I cringe when people say it's an easy race and a sprint at the cauberg.

Seriously? You people try to watch the race? There are 45 hills, of which 30 are categorized (some are too short to 'count')... usually there's a lot of selection (like last year, 10 men), and in many years groups and solo riders escaped before the cauberg. And when a bigger group sprinted, it was still very much a thinned out group

Since cauberg finish

2003 - Vinokourov, solo. 9-men group sprint for 2nd place (won by Boogerd lol)
2004 - Rebellin wins 2-man sprint against Boogerd. Then a group of 4, then a group of 6...
2005 - 30 men sprint up Cauberg, only 11 manage to finish in the same time in the end. Di Luca wins in front of.. Boogerd
2006 - Solo win by F.Schleck. Then solo Wesemann. Then 7 men of which Boogerd wins the sprint for 3rd place.
2007 - Schumacher wins solo. Then a 6 man group for 2nd place.
2008 - 9 man group sprint for the win, Cunego wins.
2009 - 2 man sprint between Kroon and Ivanov (Ivanov wns). Then Gesink who just stayed out of reach of the next group (20 men, Gilbert wins sprint 4th place)
2010 - 18 man group sprint, Gilbert wins
2011 - 10 men group sprint that catch Schleck just on the last climb (the 11th man). Gilbert wins

So clearly this race is a lot harder than some people here imagine it. Most of the time it didn't even end in a group sprint...And if it did, hardly ever bigger than 10 men.
BYOP88 wrote:Great to see that Porte has rediscovered his 2010/11 climbing form. Hope he can keep it for the rest of the Tour and year.
User avatar Dekker_Tifosi
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12 Apr 2012 09:43

2005 was exceptional too as the weather was completely horrific.
User avatar will10
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12 Apr 2012 09:46

Panda Claws wrote:It will be a question of whether Gilbert's explosiveness has taken as much as a hit as his stamina.

Amstel Gold Race is a pretty easy race for guys like Gilbert, Rodriguez, etc...

It is almost like awaiting a bunch sprint most of the time. If this happens then we have to keep in mind than an in-form Gilbert is much much faster here than anyone else.

Amstel isn't an easy race for "guys like Gilbert". Only 3 years ago he got his first good result in this race. Before, the Keutenberg was always a little too much for him.

There's a tendency (as Dekker_T explains as well) to regard this race as a kind of bunch sprint up the Cauberg, but it's nothing like that.
theyoungest
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12 Apr 2012 09:52

aahmadhu wrote:Gilbert, Cunego, Bettini all are genuine Ardennes campaigners. I mean, it's been a while since the last time a preceeding Lombardia winner was not in the mix for a good Ardennes campaign. maybe it's just me.
Is Zaugg riding AGR btw?


lombardia and agr have about as much in common as msr and lbl
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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12 Apr 2012 09:52

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:I cringe when people say it's an easy race and a sprint at the cauberg.

I agree completely. I live in Liège, which is pretty close to Maastricht, so I know very well both LBL's and AGR's courses. The Eijserbosweg/Fromberg/Keutenberg trilogy after 230 km of hard racing is murder. I'm not saying Roche aux Faucons is easy after the same mileage, mind you...
Anyway, I don't think AGR is any easier than LBL, for example. Now, maybe some people think LBL is an easy race ending with a sprint in Ans :)
jflemaire
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12 Apr 2012 10:00

theyoungest wrote:Amstel isn't an easy race for "guys like Gilbert". Only 3 years ago he got his first good result in this race. Before, the Keutenberg was always a little too much for him.

There's a tendency (as Dekker_T explains as well) to regard this race as a kind of bunch sprint up the Cauberg, but it's nothing like that.


Allright. Thanks to both of you for clearing that up.
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