Log in:  

Register

Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

A place to discuss all things related to current professional road races. Here, you can also touch on the latest news relating to professional road racing. A doping discussion free forum.

14 Jun 2013 23:55

nick101 wrote:I find it really hard to believe that froome will hold his form through the whole tour ie, peaking for four months (march to the end of july). that just humanly isn't possible even for professional cyclists, by the end of the 2012 tour wiggo was beginning to lose form. given that he should come into ax3 peaking, by ventoux he should have lost form. Contador has proven that when he is peaking he could beat froome, but whenever contador has raced frooome he's been well below that historical best. whether contador can actually reach that maximum is uncertain, but if he does, then froome won't be able to match him on the climbs (same thing with schleck vs froome)


The same for Evans, Purito and Valverde a lot of years, even riding two big Tours...if you are really good, you are allways up in the races... For Nibali is similar.

And the same for Contador, he even started before... or, what I have to think Contador now is in a worse shape than Froome?

Froome didnt get 100 % shape yet, he is doing small peaks at 80-90 %, small rest-small peak.. like that.

Evans won Tirreno, 7 in Cataluña, won Romandía, second in Dauphiné and won the Tour...

it is not so different, and he said: I ll take it easy before the Tour...

And after that he did 7 in Colorado :D

Why not Froome, Froome is as good as Evans but younger, so now is better.
User avatar Taxus4a
Junior Member
 
Posts: 1,894
Joined: 12 Aug 2012 18:48
Location: Castilla

15 Jun 2013 00:03

in terms of his climbing more, with his tt'ing he remained nearly the same. on stage 17 he struggled more and was going slower than in previous summit finishes; hence why I am saying he likely lost form. apart from that with sky wiggins only had to podium in the tt's and just keep up in the four mountain stages
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 00:06

nick101 wrote:in terms of his climbing more, with his tt'ing he remained nearly the same. on stage 17 he struggled more and was going slower than in previous summit finishes; hence why I am saying he likely lost form


Stop trolling.
JRanton
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,077
Joined: 02 Apr 2010 21:14

15 Jun 2013 00:08

This year Froome has based his whole season around TDF, his Vuelta performance came after TDF. TDF 2013 Froome will be a lot stronger than Vuelta 2012 Froome. Contador knows that too, he is not silly.
User avatar Poursuivant
Junior Member
 
Posts: 848
Joined: 07 Jun 2011 18:19

15 Jun 2013 00:41

for me froomes 2011 vuelta was nearly a perfect race for him. he came in at average form and by the stage at pena cabarga, was peaking - that is his 100%. from his current climbing, he is nearly at that maximum now, about 95%. even if is doing short peaks, he won't be able to do that in the tour and because he's been holding form for so long, he will begin to lose form. as for froome being below 80% the whole season - I haven't seen him once that unfit, if he was he wouldn't be winning races. even at tirreno he was above 90% but nibali outsmarted him.

contadors climbing when he is on form is up to 1900VAM, whereas froome has only once managed to climb at 1800VAM and that was only on a short climb, andy can do over 1800VAM consistently, do the math and if contador brings that form he will beat froome, 90% and he will only lose a few seconds in the sprint, but otherwise match him on the climbs. evans is for me a once in a generation rider. it has been said that if the past era was clean, evans would be a multi gt winning rider. but even in his season with evans took a substantial break after peaking at tirenno and romandie and then built up again so he was peaking for the tour by the alps. plus at romandie he rode consistently but never won a stage or podiumed. froome has had a very intense season winning almost every race he enters, evans did not win every race he entered either and raced less than froome
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 01:06

nick101 wrote:for me froomes 2011 vuelta was nearly a perfect race for him. he came in at average form and by the stage at pena cabarga, was peaking - that is his 100%. from his current climbing, he is nearly at that maximum now, about 95%. even if is doing short peaks, he won't be able to do that in the tour and because he's been holding form for so long, he will begin to lose form. as for froome being below 80% the whole season - I haven't seen him once that unfit, if he was he wouldn't be winning races. even at tirreno he was above 90% but nibali outsmarted him.

contadors climbing when he is on form is up to 1900VAM, whereas froome has only once managed to climb at 1800VAM and that was only on a short climb, andy can do over 1800VAM consistently, do the math and if contador brings that form he will beat froome, 90% and he will only lose a few seconds in the sprint, but otherwise match him on the climbs. evans is for me a once in a generation rider. it has been said that if the past era was clean, evans would be a multi gt winning rider. but even in his season with evans took a substantial break after peaking at tirenno and romandie and then built up again so he was peaking for the tour by the alps. plus at romandie he rode consistently but never won a stage or podiumed. froome has had a very intense season winning almost every race he enters, evans did not win every race he entered either and raced less than froome


You keep talking about where each rider is at in multiple threads as if you know for sure they are at 80%, 90%, 95% etc. How do you know Froome is at his maximum now? Because he's winning races? If your one of the best in the world you don't have to be at the very top of your game to win races. And right now Froome is the best in the world. Winning mountain stages for him has become like winning TT's was for Wiggins last year. Plus according to him before Dauphine he wasn't at his best

If Froome doesn't win the Tour, it won't be because he mistimed his form or peaked to early. It will be because someone else was simply better.
Be the Goat

Fabio Aru: "si muore sulla bici"
User avatar Afrank
Senior Member
 
Posts: 9,050
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 21:58
Location: Oregon

15 Jun 2013 01:23

yes have you seen froome actually climbing better as the season progressed? because I haven't, his climbing has remained more or less the same. I talk about where each rider is because I can estimate their form reasonably well if I compare it their previous maximums. as for froome losing, I totally agree that contador would have to be better, which he has demonstrated in the past he that can be (2009 and 2011 esp.).

yes even if froome lost form, contador would still have to be at his best to beat him. as for wiggins winning tt's there were other good tt'rs that normally beat him - cancellara, martin and maybe one or two others. the reason why wiggins dominated tt's was simply because cancellara and martin were unfit. same thing with froome, contador just hasn't been up to scratch this year and with the re-emergence of schleck beginning I think froomes dominance will be less so than what we have seen.
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 01:34

nick101 wrote:yes have you seen froome actually climbing better as the season progressed? because I haven't, his climbing has remained more or less the same. I talk about where each rider is because I can estimate their form reasonably well if I compare it their previous maximums. as for froome losing, I totally agree that contador would have to be better, which he has demonstrated in the past he that can be (2009 and 2011 esp.).

yes even if froome lost form, contador would still have to be at his best to beat him. as for wiggins winning tt's there were other good tt'rs that normally beat him - cancellara, martin and maybe one or two others. the reason why wiggins dominated tt's was simply because cancellara and martin were unfit. same thing with froome, contador just hasn't been up to scratch this year and with the re-emergence of schleck beginning I think froomes dominance will be less so than what we have seen.


I'd say his climbing this year is better than the last couple years at least. But my point was that we can't know for sure where exactly each rider is at with their form. I don't think Froome will have any trouble with having mistimed his peak or tiring out later in the Tour due to peaking before for the earlier races.

To the bolded, his dominance will only be less if the other top guys (Contador, maybe schleck, as well as other top climbers) have managed to catch up to him in climbing level. I'm not sure they will be able to. Schleck I don't think will do much in the way of GC. Contador may be able to catch up to him, but nothing is sure with the level he has shown so far this season. The other top climbers he should easily be able to distance enough in the TT's.
Be the Goat

Fabio Aru: "si muore sulla bici"
User avatar Afrank
Senior Member
 
Posts: 9,050
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 21:58
Location: Oregon

15 Jun 2013 01:50

I was meaning this season froome has not improved much in terms of climbing, since 2011 not much either but he's become a more rounded rider. his climbing VAM is less than the 2011 vuelta atm. we won't obviously know the contenders form exactly as they won't be racing again so we won't know until the tour. but we can obviously estimate their current form well. schleck cannot beat froome in a gt because his tting loses him a couple of minutes, unless he was to pull out another repeat of tourmalet of course.
in terms of tting contador would have to be top form to beat him. there will be so many good climbers on form at the tour that froome likely won't gain as much time. dan martin, igor anton, mollema and pinot are looking impressive imo
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 03:18

Afrank wrote:I'd say his climbing this year is better than the last couple years at least. But my point was that we can't know for sure where exactly each rider is at with their form. I don't think Froome will have any trouble with having mistimed his peak or tiring out later in the Tour due to peaking before for the earlier races.

To the bolded, his dominance will only be less if the other top guys (Contador, maybe schleck, as well as other top climbers) have managed to catch up to him in climbing level. I'm not sure they will be able to. Schleck I don't think will do much in the way of GC. Contador may be able to catch up to him, but nothing is sure with the level he has shown so far this season. The other top climbers he should easily be able to distance enough in the TT's.


It's hard to say if he is climbing better than last year as he was riding in support of Wiggins but he has made the most of his opportunities this season. I would argue that Porte's climbing has improved more than Froome's. Dunno why people keep name checking Andy. Yes he has improved but the TDS is not full of Tour contenders at the moment. I can't see Andy finishing in the top 10 maybe not even top 20. He will probably target a stage win if he can. 2014 will be Andy's more likely target and if he does not do much next year his career will be in limbo as a possible GC winner. I saw nothing in the Dauphine, Giro or TDS to think that Froome is going to struggle to win the Tour. Only illness or a top notch Contador can stop him or clever team tactics that no one seems to employ these days and I'm not convinced that any of those things will happen. Of course illness is a lottery. Nibali in the 2014 Tour in Giro form with back to form Andy, that would make a fascinating race next year with the other top riders and the improving Colombians. Next year's could be even better though this year's should still be good. Will this year be the Contador Froome showdown that many are expecting ?
movingtarget
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,752
Joined: 05 Aug 2009 08:54

15 Jun 2013 03:21

nick101 wrote:I was meaning this season froome has not improved much in terms of climbing, since 2011 not much either but he's become a more rounded rider. his climbing VAM is less than the 2011 vuelta atm. we won't obviously know the contenders form exactly as they won't be racing again so we won't know until the tour. but we can obviously estimate their current form well. schleck cannot beat froome in a gt because his tting loses him a couple of minutes, unless he was to pull out another repeat of tourmalet of course.
in terms of tting contador would have to be top form to beat him. there will be so many good climbers on form at the tour that froome likely won't gain as much time. dan martin, igor anton, mollema and pinot are looking impressive imo


Froome is ten times the climber than the guys you listed there. The only guys I see that could beat Froome in climbing are Contador and Schleck if they are in form, maybe Quintana too (the guys a phenom). And Purito may be able to match him.

And I don't think he needs to improve his current climbing level this year for the Tour.
Be the Goat

Fabio Aru: "si muore sulla bici"
User avatar Afrank
Senior Member
 
Posts: 9,050
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 21:58
Location: Oregon

15 Jun 2013 03:24

movingtarget wrote:It's hard to say if he is climbing better than last year as he was riding in support of Wiggins but he has made the most of his opportunities this season. I would argue that Porte's climbing has improved more than Froome's. Dunno why people keep name checking Andy. Yes he has improved but the TDS is not full of Tour contenders at the moment. I can't see Andy finishing in the top 10 maybe not even top 20. He will probably target a stage win if he can. 2014 will be Andy's more likely target and if he does not do much next year his career will be in limbo as a possible GC winner. I saw nothing in the Dauphine, Giro or TDS to think that Froome is going to struggle to win the Tour. Only illness or a top notch Contador can stop him or clever team tactics that no one seems to employ these days and I'm not convinced that any of those things will happen. Of course illness is a lottery. Nibali in the 2014 Tour in Giro form with back to form Andy, that would make a fascinating race next year with the other top riders and the improving Colombians. Next year's could be even better though this year's should still be good. Will this year be the Contador Froome showdown that many are expecting ?


I'm not expecting anything from Andy in terms of GC either actually. I think he will end up focusing on getting some stage wins. 2014 will be the year to start looking at GC again.
Portes climbing has definitely improved more too, since his climbing before this year was at a much lower level. Froome really didn't need to improve his climbing too much from last year.
Be the Goat

Fabio Aru: "si muore sulla bici"
User avatar Afrank
Senior Member
 
Posts: 9,050
Joined: 16 Aug 2011 21:58
Location: Oregon

15 Jun 2013 03:46

movingtarget wrote: I would argue that Porte's climbing has improved more than Froome's.... Yes he has improved but the TDS is not full of Tour contenders at the moment. I can't see Andy finishing in the top 10 maybe not even top 20..... I saw nothing in the Dauphine, Giro or TDS to think that Froome is going to struggle to win the Tour... Will this year be the Contador Froome showdown that many are expecting ?


I strongly agree about porte, compared to his first gt at the giro 2009 he is climbing much better, but he hasn't improved much since 2012 algarve. I'm not sure u'v seen the latest stage of the tds??? Andy only lost 10 seconds/km in the last 4kms of the climb to the main climbers at the tds which really isn't bad at all, but then lost another 40 seconds on the descent. Andy also climbed faster on the abulapass than he did in 2011 but there was a headwind in 2011. There were some impressive attacks especially by mollema and roy, plus it was repeated attacks not just one attack like froome does. Giro is irrelevant also. A lot of the gc guys haven't been fit, recently raced against froome or have been hiding their form so u can't really say that froome will EASILY win based on the assumption that contador et al all remain unfit. All the gc contenders will be at the tdf (apart from nibali) and most will be on form; froome already is. If andy keeps progressing at the rate he is currently at then he would be back by ventoux. The only attacks I've seen from froome are in the final kms and without the armchair ride sky gives him to the finish he wouldn't be anywhere near as good. Most of the riders I say can beat froome attack from 10kms out and no one can catch them. When I see froome do that then I will agree
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 04:24

Cmon it's not trolling. Some young fan just shares his assumptions. It's ok. I just don't think Froome won the races at 100%, probably it was only about 70-80%. In addition if Contador had shown such a winning swing it could've added him only more favoritism. In Froome's situation we allegedly have the opposite thing. It's not very logical.

nick101 wrote:yes have you seen froome actually climbing better as the season progressed? because I haven't, his climbing has remained more or less the same. I talk about where each rider is because I can estimate their form reasonably well


No one can't because a rider's goal is to win the race, not to show 100% of current capabities. It's 2 different things.

one or two others. the reason why wiggins dominated tt's was simply because cancellara and martin were unfit. same thing with froome, contador just hasn't been up to scratch this year and with the re-emergence of schleck beginning


hehe, following this logic riders who have more titles can lose only if they are unfit... No man, best riders change each other and we are on the edge of another change this year.
User avatar airstream
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,283
Joined: 29 Mar 2011 18:32
Location: Minsk

15 Jun 2013 04:44

nick101 wrote:I strongly agree about porte, compared to his first gt at the giro 2009 he is climbing much better, but he hasn't improved much since 2012 algarve. I'm not sure u'v seen the latest stage of the tds??? Andy only lost 10 seconds/km in the last 4kms of the climb to the main climbers at the tds which really isn't bad at all, but then lost another 40 seconds on the descent. Andy also climbed faster on the abulapass than he did in 2011 but there was a headwind in 2011. There were some impressive attacks especially by mollema and roy, plus it was repeated attacks not just one attack like froome does. Giro is irrelevant also. A lot of the gc guys haven't been fit, recently raced against froome or have been hiding their form so u can't really say that froome will EASILY win based on the assumption that contador et al all remain unfit. All the gc contenders will be at the tdf (apart from nibali) and most will be on form; froome already is. If andy keeps progressing at the rate he is currently at then he would be back by ventoux. The only attacks I've seen from froome are in the final kms and without the armchair ride sky gives him to the finish he wouldn't be anywhere near as good. Most of the riders I say can beat froome attack from 10kms out and no one can catch them. When I see froome do that then I will agree


I have been impressed by Mollema recently. I did see the stage and Andy did ride well but doing that for three weeks is another thing. I would like to see Andy back to his best as it adds another dimension to the battles in the mountains but I think this year is too soon for him. I will be interested to see how Pinot goes in the Tour and TJVG is looking solid as well.
movingtarget
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,752
Joined: 05 Aug 2009 08:54

15 Jun 2013 05:16

well froome has been massively over rated as he has only been able beat his rivals due to the reasons I mentioned before. the only time I have seen a single rival at reasonable form was at the tour of oman where rodriguez gained 10 seconds on froome in the final km of green mountain at the ToO but then faded the rest of that race. now if froome is only at 80% as your suggesting, he would be able to beat a mighty cancellara by at least a minute or two AND set a record for alpe dhuez, beating pantani's record if he was peaking at the tour like you also suggest. If you seriously think he can do that, that would be nothing short of miraculous to achieve over 7.3w/kg and suddenly gain 60+watts more than what cancellara can do in a time trial out of nowhere. that definitely doesn't make sense and is just not humanly possible so should immediately ring alarm bells. throughout his cycling career froome has at no point demonstrated anywhere near the ability to do this - the best he's done in a tt is +1min to cancellara and 6.4w/kg. btw i'm only theorising that if a contador on form was to race a froome on form then contador should theoretically win easily
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

15 Jun 2013 06:24

you confuse top form with absolute career peak. If Contador can not push Verbier watts, it doesn't mean he's not on top form. Top form is a thing somebody can realistically reach this season. And what Contador will show in this Tour is his current top form, because it will be impossible to find excuses this time
User avatar airstream
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,283
Joined: 29 Mar 2011 18:32
Location: Minsk

15 Jun 2013 06:54

airstream wrote:you confuse top form with absolute career peak. If Contador can not push Verbier watts, it doesn't mean he's not on top form. Top form is a thing somebody can realistically reach this season. And what Contador will show in this Tour is his current top form, because it will be impossible to find excuses this time


C'mon there will always be excuses ! It's just that some people can't accept that their favourite riders can be beaten and instead of accepting it there will be some conspiracy theory or whatever. Or plaster on the knee etc... I hope there is no bad luck and the top GC riders fight it out but for some of them the best laid plans will be upset. It's the nature of the sport. The sooner people accept that the better. Just being able to recover and ride through any injury or illness for three weeks is hard enough let alone winning the race. The less talented riders are just happy to get to Paris.
movingtarget
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,752
Joined: 05 Aug 2009 08:54

15 Jun 2013 07:01

movingtarget wrote:C'mon there will always be excuses ! It's just that some people can't accept that their favourite riders can be beaten and instead of accepting it there will be some conspiracy theory or whatever. Or plaster on the knee etc... I hope there is no bad luck and the top GC riders fight it out but for some of them the best laid plans will be upset. It's the nature of the sport. The sooner people accept that the better. Just being able to recover and ride through any injury or illness for three weeks is hard enough let alone winning the race. The less talented riders are just happy to get to Paris.


I clearly understand what are you saying about. I meant these excuses won't work for you or me :) Surely, the talk was about riders' excuses, not fans' ones. As to fans, it is not a difficult thing to predict how it will go if he disappoints. I even have some versions already, for example, UCI and Dawg dared cripple AC career. Honestly, this factor alienated me frome Contador even more. His fans are not able to look up to stronger riders. Of course not all fans, but only he provokes such insanity.
User avatar airstream
Senior Member
 
Posts: 4,283
Joined: 29 Mar 2011 18:32
Location: Minsk

15 Jun 2013 07:13

verbier wasn't necessarily his career peak. he was then 26 so still has room to develop. contador has achieved similar power to that on climbs once or twice per season: 2007 - plateau de beille and the peyrsord; 2008 - angliru, plan de corones and Fuentes de invierno, 2011 - etna and 2012 - ancares. I have no idea whether he will reach that power this year or not all I know is that if he does he will beat froome :). so far his form is far from his usual best. I hope that he can reach that form; it'll make it more interesting instead of the boring sky train then froomes inevitable attack in the final kms. I really do get sick of skys one dimensional tactics at races
nick101
Junior Member
 
Posts: 317
Joined: 12 Jun 2013 01:28

PreviousNext

Return to Professional road racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Beacon Hill, blackmamba, burning, Bye Bye Bicycle, EarnstMorrissey, Flamin, Google [Bot], Hakkapelit, Ioslarra, Jan the Man, jaylew, jflemaire, kanari, leftover pie, No_Balls, Queens Boulevard, sulgpallur and 104 guests

Back to top