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Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

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25 Jun 2013 22:33

Publicus wrote:I think that's exactly what he means. We'll see if this is all just the overconfidence of his best friend, but there has been a consistency about AC's story (slow build up) that lends credibility to the whole thing. We'll see in a few short days.


Alright thanks then I understood it correctly. TT results will be interesting.
webbie146
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25 Jun 2013 23:49

webbie146 wrote:The two individual time trials in this year’s Tour de France is, without a doubt, in the favor of Chris Froome. Therefore, many have been wondering if Alberto Contador will be strong enough in the mountains to take back the time he will lose against the clock. According to Jesus Hernandez, that’s not an issue.

“[Taking back lost time in the mountains] won’t be a question with Alberto on this best level. In fact, it will be other way around”, Hernandez assures.

What did he mean, I don't understand? That Alberto will take time on Froome in the TT's?


Do you have a link to this Hernandez quote or was it posted in the thread already?
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
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26 Jun 2013 00:30

Baltazar wrote:Looks promising, all we need now is some rain :D

yes.. a little rain and Corsica might even look like Ireland. But not likely to happen in june-july
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on to witness victory

26 Jun 2013 00:38

How amazing. I am leaving New York and heading for Corsica, Nice, Albi, and Bagneres de Bigorre totally prepared to see Alberto make history. :)
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26 Jun 2013 01:07

LaFlorecita wrote:http://c-cycling.blogspot.cz/2013/06/tour-exclusive-jesus-hernandez-we-are.html

Many have doubted if Alberto Contador will reach his former level of greatness in this year’s Tour de France. The Spaniard hasn’t won any of the stage races he has been riding and so far he’s only got one stage win this season. However, what many tend to forget is that this year the plan has been different. Alberto Contador was mentally drained after his turbulent 2012-season and he needed a longer winter break than usually. Therefore, he started out 2013 three kilos heavier than the preview years, and naturally this has affected his results.

Instead of being close to his best level during the first part of the season - as he usually is - Contador has planned everything around the Tour de France. At Dauphiné he said he was on 75 % and according to his best friend and teammate, Jesus Hernandez, Alberto Contador is now ready to fight for the overall win.

“In general I think the balance is good. We haven’t won [much] but we have been close in all the races and therefore, the balance can’t be bad. Each year is different and the beginnings of the seasons are never the same. We have been working hard in order to arrive in a good condition for the Tour and I think we have achieved that”, Jesus Hernandez tells me.

Looking at the Saxo-Tinkoff team for the Tour, I doubt Alberto Contador has ever had a stronger team to support him. A view shared by Hernandez.

“We come [to the Tour] with a very solid block [of riders] in all areas, very attuned around Alberto. It is indeed a very strong team”, Hernandez says and ads: “The last rider in the mountains will be Kreuziger, who’s very strong. Before that, it’s up to Rogers, Roche and me depending on the stages”.

The two individual time trials in this year’s Tour de France is, without a doubt, in the favor of Chris Froome. Therefore, many have been wondering if Alberto Contador will be strong enough in the mountains to take back the time he will lose against the clock. According to Jesus Hernandez, that’s not an issue.

“[Taking back lost time in the mountains] won’t be a question with Alberto on this best level. In fact, it will be other way around”, Hernandez assures.

Due to Alberto Contador’s “poor” results this year, rumors of Contador not being as strong as usually in his training have surfaced. I asked Jesus Hernandez about these rumors and I think his answer speaks for itself.

“Come train a few days with him [Contador] and you will see the answer to those rumors”.


Oh yeah


They sound confident, very good to see. Contador and the team will be ready. Ready to take on Froome and ready to do battle.

Looking forward to the mountains to see what kind of pain Contador can bring. :D
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26 Jun 2013 01:50

LaFlorecita wrote:http://c-cycling.blogspot.cz/2013/06/tour-exclusive-jesus-hernandez-we-are.html

At Dauphiné he said he was on 75 % and according to his best friend and teammate, Jesus Hernandez, Alberto Contador is now ready to fight for the overall win.

Oh yeah


Only 75% :confused:. If that's true, contador above 90% would smash froome in the mountains; based on how he rode in comparison to froome at the dauphine. I'm not sure he could reach that form (>90%) until the second week on ventoux earliest. He's leaving things possibly too late imo
nick101
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26 Jun 2013 04:19

webbie146 wrote:The two individual time trials in this year’s Tour de France is, without a doubt, in the favor of Chris Froome. Therefore, many have been wondering if Alberto Contador will be strong enough in the mountains to take back the time he will lose against the clock. According to Jesus Hernandez, that’s not an issue.

“[Taking back lost time in the mountains] won’t be a question with Alberto on this best level. In fact, it will be other way around”, Hernandez assures.

What did he mean, I don't understand? That Alberto will take time on Froome in the TT's?


No, he will take back the time in the mountains, what he means is it will be harder for Froome to follow him in the mountains to avoid it, so yes, he knows he will lose time in TT´s, but gain it back in the mountains without Froome can respond. That´s what he´s saying.
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26 Jun 2013 04:29

xrayvision wrote:No, he will take back the time in the mountains, what he means is it will be harder for Froome to follow him in the mountains to avoid it, so yes, he knows he will lose time in TT´s, but gain it back in the mountains without Froome can respond. That´s what he´s saying.


Based on past results, Froome and Contador are of similar ability in the TT (i'm obviously ignoring his disastrous Dauphine TT, because that was an outlier). Froome maybe only slightly better than Contador. If Froome gains time on Contador it won't be very much at all. Maximum Froome could gain on contador (who is likely to be in a reasonable form) would be between 30 seconds and a minute in total for both TT's.
nick101
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26 Jun 2013 05:24

nick101 wrote:Based on past results, Froome and Contador are of similar ability in the TT (i'm obviously ignoring his disastrous Dauphine TT, because that was an outlier). Froome maybe only slightly better than Contador. If Froome gains time on Contador it won't be very much at all. Maximum Froome could gain on contador (who is likely to be in a reasonable form) would be between 30 seconds and a minute in total for both TT's.


That is being very optimistic I think. ;)
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26 Jun 2013 05:33

xrayvision wrote:That is being very optimistic I think. ;)


Nope, definitely not. If anything i think I'm being extremely pessimistic in saying that Contador (at a decent level of fitness) could lose as much as 30 seconds to Froome per TT. Contador has beaten pure time trialists like cancellara when they've been on form. Froome has not ever. Based on the majority of their results, they have similar time losses in relation to the winners of TT stages respectively, so my judgement is sound
nick101
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26 Jun 2013 05:58

nick101 wrote:Nope, definitely not. If anything i think I'm being extremely pessimistic in saying that Froome could gain as much as 30 seconds on Contador (at a decent level of fitness) per TT. Contador has beaten pure time trialists like cancellara when they've been on form. Froome has not ever. Based on the majority of their results, they have similar time losses in relation to the winners of TT stages respectively, so my judgement is sound


IMO 2009 was an outlier.
karlboss
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26 Jun 2013 06:01

karlboss wrote:IMO 2009 was an outlier.


No he beat cancellara in a hilly TT, which was definitely to be expected. Just the same this year where people expect Froome to beat martin and win in an even hillier TT (contador should come 2nd or 3rd in that stage). Froome has never beaten martin or cancellara btw. Contador's TT'ing that year was the same as other years so it wasn't an outlier. Contador has been regarded as a strong TT'er ever since the 2007 Tour, so Contador putting out a good TT isn't anything new or surprising at all
nick101
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26 Jun 2013 07:35

nick101 wrote:No he beat cancellara in a hilly TT, which was definitely to be expected. Just the same this year where people expect Froome to beat martin and win in an even hillier TT (contador should come 2nd or 3rd in that stage). Froome has never beaten martin or cancellara btw. Contador's TT'ing that year was the same as other years so it wasn't an outlier. Contador has been regarded as a strong TT'er ever since the 2007 Tour, so Contador putting out a good TT isn't anything new or surprising at all


It was not expected at all. It was a total shocker back then (and a lot argued that he won due to motorcycle pace). But Contadors TT skills have definately been declining for a few years now.
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26 Jun 2013 07:46

Cimber wrote:It was not expected at all. It was a total shocker back then (and a lot argued that he won due to motorcycle pace). But Contadors TT skills have definately been declining for a few years now.


That's at the end of 2012 and this year after his come back. In 2011 he was just as strong TT'ing as 2009 - he podiumed on a flat TT at the giro. We haven't seen an on form contador since his come-back, so naturally his TT'ing isn't as good either. His TT'ng hasn't declined, his whole form isn't anywhere near his best (he claims he was under 80% the whole year) as of this stage in time. If it has permanently declined or if this year was just an outlier, we won't know until after the tour or even until next year.
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26 Jun 2013 07:49

There is also a very interesting Contador interview with him in The Independen from yesterday:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/exclusive-alberto-contador--i-can-foil-chris-froome-on-tour-de-france-8673812.html

Some quotes from it:

"I then started to build things up at the Critérium du Dauphiné and I was actually happy with how it went. I got stronger and stronger as the race went on and I'm now, form-wise, where I want to be."

[I]Other people might take Sky's superiority at the Tour de France for granted after 2012 but Contador warns: "Not me. I've no intention of being a conformist in this race. Not in the slightest."


Being an unpredictable racer is something he relishes. "I could have lost everything in that race (EDIT: the vuelta 2012)," he says, "I risked it all with one big attack. I learnt there that sometimes you've got to rip up the script and act on instinct. It's never all about calculation."

"Cycling is not all about mathematics," he says. "You have to see what your rivals are doing. Fortunately, we're not machines and circumstances inside a race can change so fast. This sport isn't one that you can control as easily as others. This Tour, in particular, could continue to be wide-open right up until the final mountain top finish at Annecy on the second last day."[/I]
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26 Jun 2013 07:51

nick101 wrote:Based on past results, Froome and Contador are of similar ability in the TT (i'm obviously ignoring his disastrous Dauphine TT, because that was an outlier). Froome maybe only slightly better than Contador. If Froome gains time on Contador it won't be very much at all. Maximum Froome could gain on contador (who is likely to be in a reasonable form) would be between 30 seconds and a minute in total for both TT's.


I was a bit shocked when Bertie said that the other day but come to think of it, yes, it seems to hold some ground. His terrible 2010 ITT and now CD somehow hide the facts. Frooome's been more consistent since the Vuelta 2011 though but that's over a short period.
webvan
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26 Jun 2013 07:59

webvan wrote:I was a bit shocked when Bertie said that the other day but come to think of it, yes, it seems to hold some ground. His terrible 2010 ITT and now CD somehow hide the facts. Frooome's been more consistent since the Vuelta 2011 though but that's over a short period.


Contador's only been back racing for under a year, ~ 8 months. So I wouldn't say his form has diminished this early in his return. It's much too early to say, I'm not even sure this season will be a proper determinant as to whether he can still reach his old form, unless he beats Froome and wins the TDF. For me he's in a similar situation to Schleck where they both probably won't be at their best again until at least next year
nick101
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26 Jun 2013 08:05

nick101 wrote:That's at the end of 2012 and this year after his come back. In 2011 he was just as strong TT'ing as 2009 - he podiumed on a flat TT at the giro. We haven't seen an on form contador since his come-back, so naturally his TT'ing isn't as good either. His TT'ng hasn't declined, his whole form isn't anywhere near his best (he claims he was under 80% the whole year) as of this stage in time. If it has permanently declined or if this year was just an outlier, we won't know until after the tour or even until next year.


Yes TT-performance is often a good indicator of form. And we know what he is capable of on a TT when in top shape. So the "bad" or inconsistent TT results could very well be interpreted as lack of form, which actually fits nicely with his argument that he was only at 75% in Dauphiné.

The big question is not wether or not he is able to perform slendid when in top shape. The question is wether or not he will fint that shape in time.
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26 Jun 2013 08:10

Cimber wrote:Yes TT-performance is often a good indicator of form. And we know what he is capable of on a TT when in top shape. So the "bad" or inconsistent TT results could very well be interpreted as lack of form, which actually fits nicely with his argument that he was only at 75% in Dauphiné.

The big question is not wether or not he is able to perform slendid when in top shape. The question is wether or not he will fint that shape in time.


Yes i question whether he will find the form in time or even at all. He's leaving things too late as he should've been ~90% and not 75% (according to what he says anyway) at the Dauphine. I have no question mark over whether he has the ability to beat Froome - he proved that to me through his 2009 Tour and 2011 Giro wins. For me it's whether he can reach that form for the Tour (or even ever again) that determines if he can beat Froome in any future races from this point onwards.
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26 Jun 2013 08:13

nick101 wrote:Yes i question whether he will find the form in time or even at all. He's leaving things too late as he should've been ~90% and not 75% (according to what he says anyway) at the Dauphine. I have no question mark over whether he has the ability to beat Froome - he proved that to me through his 2009 Tour and 2011 Giro wins. For me it's whether he can reach that form for the Tour (or even ever again) that determines if he can beat Froome in any future races.


Agree. The potential is there but only time will tell if he can ever get back to that level again.
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