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Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

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Who will win the 2013 Tour

Poll ended at 25 Oct 2012 12:09

Alberto Contador
61
62%
Cristopher Froome
25
25%
Andy Schleck
6
6%
Vincenzo Nibali
2
2%
Cadel Evans / Teehay Van Garderen
2
2%
Ryder Hesjedal
1
1%
Alejandro Valverde / Juan Jose Cobo
1
1%
Other (specify)
1
1%
 
Total votes : 99

20 Nov 2012 16:15

18-Valve. (pithy) wrote:The "reality" is that time trialing will hardly matter in next year's TDF. Barring crashes, echelons and whatnot it is quite likely that the very best and most consistent climbers will finish on top. Froome showed that he was a bit stronger than Nibali and Wiggins in that regard. But that's about it.

Arguably the most climby Tour in recent history (2011) was decided in the time trial. And that race included less time trialing than this one, certainly less flat time trialing.
theyoungest
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20 Nov 2012 16:24

Afrank wrote:Contador was a lot better form wise than Froome was at the Vuelta. Their performances in the TT there doesn't mean much because Froomes form had started it's downward trend due to so much racing.


What about Alberto's 6 (12...) month break?
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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20 Nov 2012 16:27

I remember someone compared the power data on a diffrent forum from here, from an article. He calculated that Froome output at Tour was 520 watts at maximum. That went down to 480 watts as max power at Vuelta.

He also calculated that Contador was around 515 watts at Vuelta ( with the break, he should improve that - but so will Froome ).

So it's quite even tbh.
Gloin22
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20 Nov 2012 16:29

LaFlorecita wrote:What about Alberto's 6 (12...) month break?


Yeah, he didn't have enough racing days prior to the Vuelta, no argument there. This is probably part of the reason he couldn't drop Purito prior to Fuente De. But Froome's form I think was obviously the worse of the two; I don't think Froome would have finished 10 minutes back if he was in the same shape he was in during the Tour.
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20 Nov 2012 16:31

Afrank wrote:Yeah, he didn't have enough racing days prior to the Vuelta, no argument there. This is probably part of the reason he couldn't drop Purito prior to Fuente De. But Froome's form I think was obviously the worse of the two; I don't think Froome would have finished 10 minutes back if he was in the same shape he was in during the Tour.


Yes I do agree but I just want people to realize not only Froome wasn't at his best.
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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20 Nov 2012 16:31

Your arguments are sheer dribble Jason
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20 Nov 2012 18:14

How would the Vuelta have ended in case Froome had come there in the Tour form? Predictions? :D
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20 Nov 2012 18:21

Hilarious thing is that I communicate within the limits of Russian speaking cycling community for many years and there vice versa most people think Froome is already the strongest climber. It is not so numerous like CN surely, but still..
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20 Nov 2012 18:44

airstream wrote:Hilarious thing is that I communicate within the limits of Russian speaking cycling community for many years and there vice versa most people think Froome is already the strongest climber. It is not so numerous like CN surely, but still..


Hahahah:o,they dont know anything about cycling,maybe in july a bit:rolleyes:..during the year they watch ice-hockey hah?
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User avatar ILovecycling
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20 Nov 2012 18:53

ILovecycling wrote:Hahahah:o,they dont know anything about cycling,maybe in july a bit:rolleyes:..during the year they watch ice-hockey hah?


Cycling is not popular all to pieces, to my greatest regret, but they are quite knowledgeable.

18.Valve (Pithy) wrote:The "reality" is that time trialing will hardly matter in next year's TDF. Barring crashes, echelons and whatnot it is quite likely that the very best and most consistent climbers will finish on top. Froome showed that he was a bit stronger than Nibali and Wiggins in that regard. But that's about it.

Froome exponated something more significant than just beating Nibali and Wiggins. I never saw anyone who worked so much on the front during decisive km's [everyone desperately try to hide in slipstreams to save crumb of energy], going full 'steady' blast, when tempo is maximal. Often guys who win GT's don't work so much. On Peyresourde Froome dropped others as easy as pie. It wasn't his matter, just a coercion. What would have been, if he could have attacked — I shudder to think.
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20 Nov 2012 18:53

Lollllzzzzzz those russians :o :o :o
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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20 Nov 2012 19:15

airstream wrote:Cycling is not popular all to pieces, to my greatest regret, but they are quite knowledgeable.


Froome exponated something more significant than just beating Nibali and Wiggins. I never saw anyone who worked so much on the front during decisive km's [everyone desperately try to hide in slipstreams to save crumb of energy], going full 'steady' blast, when tempo is maximal. Often guys who win GT's don't work so much. On Peyresourde Froome dropped others as easy as pie. It wasn't his matter, just a coercion. What would have been, if he could have attacked — I shudder to think.


Pinot near the end wasn't so easy to rid themselves of. I shudder to think how he'll be once he gains more experience. I'm more excited about his prospects than Froome's.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
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20 Nov 2012 19:21

Angliru wrote:Pinot near the end wasn't so easy to rid themselves of. I shudder to think how he'll be once he gains more experience. I'm more excited about his prospects than Froome's.


trolling? :) Didn't Van Endert bother you after the 2011 Tour? You've got a bit of organic rejection towards Cristopher.
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20 Nov 2012 19:44

airstream wrote:Team Leopard Trek was the only one that tried to attack on high mountain stages.


What did you expect?
Evans to attack knowing that he will easily beat Andy in TT and descents?
Contador to attack even though he was injured on Pyrennees? (He won the tour for Evans in Gap as well and I remembered that he went for "fun" in one of the stages)
I remember that some guy in orange jersey attacked 3/4 of HC finishes and won some jersey

Dont forget next best avaliable guy was Voeckler and everybody else was in hospital or totally irrelevant
burning
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20 Nov 2012 19:57

burning wrote:What did you expect?
Evans to attack knowing that he will easily beat Andy in TT and descents?
Contador to attack even though he was injured on Pyrennees? (He won the tour for Evans in Gap as well and I remembered that he went for "fun" in one of the stages)
I remember that some guy in orange jersey attacked 3/4 of HC finishes and won some jersey

Dont forget next best avaliable guy was Voeckler and everybody else was in hospital or totally irrelevant


Yea indeed what about Alberto and Samu
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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20 Nov 2012 20:04

airstream wrote:trolling? :) .

Pinot beat him in La Toussuire and i am secure in the last climb of the Porrentruy stage he climbed faster than Chris Froome. And was close him in Peyragudes. Some people are blind with his 10th position. He was involved in the day of missing time of the climbers. 2 minutes in Metz, 10 minutes in the ITT's . End at 17' of Wiggins in the GC. In the MT stages he only get really dropped in the Bagneres de Luchon stage and in the beginning of the one of Davezieux if im not wrong. He was there in Belles Filles, Porrentruy, La Toussuire, Grand Colombier, Foix and Peyragudes stages. The next year the route suites him much more than this year. The lost time in the ITTs maybe will be less than the half of this year. Also if we consider Froome was overcooked in La Vuelta we have to say that Thibaut came to France without an specific set up. Probably as Contador in 2008 Giro. Who knows. Until one or two weeks before the race the frenchman didnt know he would be in France. He's 22 years, the normal thing is that he will improve in comparison with this year. But its an unknown factor. That's why today i put Chris Froome ahead him. And because of the Time trial.
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20 Nov 2012 20:34

Jason_Mercier wrote:Pinot beat him in La Toussuire and i am secure in the last climb of the Porrentruy stage he climbed faster than Chris Froome. And was close him in Peyragudes. Some people are blind with his 10th position. He was involved in the day of missing time of the climbers. 2 minutes in Metz, 10 minutes in the ITT's . End at 17' of Wiggins in the GC. In the MT stages he only get really dropped in the Bagneres de Luchon stage and in the beginning of the one of Davezieux if im not wrong. He was there in Belles Filles, Porrentruy, La Toussuire, Grand Colombier, Foix and Peyragudes stages. The next year the route suites him much more than this year. The lost time in the ITTs maybe will be less than the half of this year. Also if we consider Froome was overcooked in La Vuelta we have to say that Thibaut came to France without an specific set up. Probably as Contador in 2008 Giro. Who knows. Until one or two weeks before the race the frenchman didnt know he would be in France. He's 22 years, the normal thing is that he will improve in comparison with this year. But its an unknown factor. That's why today i put Chris Froome ahead him. And because of the Time trial.


it's not quite serious. as soon as pinot becomes a threat for top-3, he will immediately get absolutely different resistance. sky let him go tactically.
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20 Nov 2012 20:39

airstream wrote:it's not quite serious. as soon as pinot becomes a threat for top-3, he will immediately get absolutely different resistance. sky let him go tactically.


In La Toussuire let him go? In Peyragudes stage when he attacked? Pinot didnt take any important advantages due to Sky let him go. Maybe only in Porrentruy stage, not more than 1 minute.
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20 Nov 2012 20:43

You talk like Pinot did a Top10 thanks for two or three brekaways when he was the fourth or fifth best climber.
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20 Nov 2012 20:43

airstream wrote:trolling? :) Didn't Van Endert bother you after the 2011 Tour? You've got a bit of organic rejection towards Cristopher.


Actually I like Froome. Just because I'm more excited about Pinot than Froome, don't assume that I'm not a believer in Froome's potential, I'm just hesitant to proclaim him the next great grand tour champion. Pinot I'm excited about because he appears to me to be France's best chance at a Tour podium, even more so than Pierre Rolland, one that I believe will live up to the hype.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
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