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Le Tour de France 2013: who will win?

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Who will win the 2013 Tour

Poll ended at 25 Oct 2012 12:09

Alberto Contador
61
62%
Cristopher Froome
25
25%
Andy Schleck
6
6%
Vincenzo Nibali
2
2%
Cadel Evans / Teehay Van Garderen
2
2%
Ryder Hesjedal
1
1%
Alejandro Valverde / Juan Jose Cobo
1
1%
Other (specify)
1
1%
 
Total votes : 99

25 Nov 2012 08:15

Arnout wrote:He said saying that Contador is always better than other riders no matter what is closer to Nazism: i.e. not a matter-of-fact Darwinist survival of the fittest, but rather starting from the premise that one is better than the other. I think that's exactly what's going on. I don't think that is a big problem though, as it might actually be true (and I'm definitely not talking about the evil sides of that ideology, just about the basic premise)..

And I know supporters of Contador also acknowledge weaknesses and strengths of other riders. However, I also feel that the lack of racedays of Contador in this Vuelta was exaggerated, compared to previous years where other people were comparatively better than Contador because they were fresh. Or about the case of Contador gifting away stages to the likes of Anton because he couldn't be bothered rather than that someone else was faster than him on a certain day (I don't want to go into that in detail, we've had this discussion, just pointing it out). I feel different standards are and were used.

I don't buy in the "he is always better than someone else". It depends on time and day and I don't think Contador, or anyone, is as unbeatable every single day of the year. That is why I agree with airstream who's simply saying that things can change and have changed and will continue to do so and that the reasoning that Contador is the best rider can be challenged. That's all.


Wow I now actually know what he was saying.
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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25 Nov 2012 08:18

Alberto isn't unbeatable. But he is unbeatable when he's at his best.
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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25 Nov 2012 08:56

LaFlorecita wrote:Alberto isn't unbeatable. But he is unbeatable when he's at his best.


He is only at his best in Astana. so my money is on Froome next year :p
"I know how to ride my bike" - Nibali

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9LBsWCNE9I

Vuelta 06 - the greatest gt in history!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24TQdI7csHs
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25 Nov 2012 11:16

Well I'd like to note one more thing to sum up the matter decisively. If Contador wins the Tour, he will establish himself as unconditionally strongest GT rider in nowadays era one more time. But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro. Apparently if it happens, the world will start working differently.
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25 Nov 2012 17:20

airstream wrote:Well I'd like to note one more thing to sum up the matter decisively. If Contador wins the Tour, he will establish himself as unconditionally strongest GT rider in nowadays era one more time. But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro. Apparently if it happens, the world will start working differently.


True. Also, if Contador loses next year, for whatever reason, it doesn't mean he won't go on to find 2009 tour or 2011 giro form at a future GT. Putting clinic issues aside Armstrong had won only three of his seven tours at Contadors current age.

Contador has to be favourite for next year, regardless of how good Froome looked at the tour. There is only a couple of years between them and the score is 7 GT's to nil.
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25 Nov 2012 17:40

But if he loses, saying 'he wasn't like in 2009 or 2011' will be just foolish, because then there will be more reason to think that someone [Schleck, Froome, Nibali no matter who — so to speak, a representative of an inferior race] would be stronger in 2013 than Contador was in the 2009 Tour / 2011 Giro.


I don't understand this.
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
User avatar LaFlorecita
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25 Nov 2012 18:16

If Contador loses the Tour on the road (without crashes) and one tries to explain this with a bad form, it will be laughable.
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25 Nov 2012 18:31

airstream wrote:If Contador loses the Tour on the road (without crashes) and one tries to explain this with a bad form, it will be laughable.
I'd say it won't be surprising.
Do you want to watch better bike racing? => Team radios (not race radio) must go!
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25 Nov 2012 18:39

airstream wrote:If Contador loses the Tour on the road (without crashes) and one tries to explain this with a bad form, it will be laughable.


Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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25 Nov 2012 18:55

The Hitch wrote:Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?


How would you know? A week ago he said he was already training for 3 weeks now and that he hadn't even started training yet at this point last year. And he also got sick during T-A which he had to abandon.
Ryo Hazuki wrote:horrible. boonen just the same guy as years before and this course is too hard for him. that's why he rode like a coward there were at least 3 guys stronger than boonen today and none of them won: sagan, ballan, pozzato


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25 Nov 2012 19:00

Why would that be laughable?
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
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25 Nov 2012 19:14

The Hitch wrote:Gilbert lost the ardennes this year without any crashes. It was his season aim.and had good preparation.

By your logic he must have had 100% form, no?


OK, we can add illnesses and viruses. By my logic if other guy's 100% will turn out to be stronger than Contador's 100%, it will be normal.

Hm, how would you explain Gilbert's Argennes failures then?
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25 Nov 2012 19:28

airstream wrote:OK, we can add illnesses and viruses. By my logic if other guy's 100% will turn out to be stronger than Contador's 100%, it will be normal.

Hm, how would you explain Gilbert's Argennes failures then?


Same way i explain Contador 2010. The champion just hasn't been able to.get 100%
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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25 Nov 2012 19:51

The Hitch wrote:Same way i explain Contador 2010. The champion just hasn't been able to.get 100%


In my view your logic doesn't take into account the fact that the difference between riders is not constant. OK, look, as I understand you base on visual criterion: if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?

Say, the Giro 2011. Apparently Scarponi's fit we can evaluate very highly. What about Nibali?
User avatar airstream
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25 Nov 2012 20:43

airstream wrote:In my view your logic doesn't take into account the fact that the difference between riders is not constant. OK, look, as I understand you base on visual criterion: if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?

Say, the Giro 2011. Apparently Scarponi's fit we can evaluate very highly. What about Nibali?


Right.Because we:D(myself,hitch and many others) think that when he is 100% he can drop 100% - Schleck,Nibali,Purito,VDB,Piti etc.simply because when they are all on equal fitness(which is impossible in this world) Contador is good enough to drop these when he wants.
But I understand what you are trying to say with this 'laughable' thing.I agree when he won't win(with no illnesses,crashes) it will be laughable to say 'Oh he was third behind Andy and Froome cos he wasnt at his best',it is bull**** I agree with you...So if he won't win I will declare 'he already doesnt have it'.But Im sure he has it,so dont worry :)
Alberto Contador fanboy
Vamos Colombia!
Ryo Hazuki in August 2013 wrote:what? quintana is already better climber than froome. see final stages of the tour and he's only 23. quintana is the best climber I've sene since pantani. he will become a legend
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26 Nov 2012 11:54

We have all heard the expression, " in the form of his life." Gilbert had it in 2011 as did Evans, and Wiggins, Boonen in 2012. Where they were able to keep winning or in Evans' case close to winning with another second in the Dauphine, over an extended period of time. I don't know why anyone would think these types of seasons could be duplicated. It is rare for them to happen once. Crashes, sickness, opportunities etc........everything has to go right on the day or over three weeks. Gilbert did not lack for trying in this year's classics season, he just didn't have it but still rode very well at Amstel and I think at Fleche where Rodriguez was the hot favourite. Sometimes sportsmen do everything right and just does not happen. You also hear often, how bad riders feel early in a race and surprise themselves by winning unexpectedly.
movingtarget
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26 Nov 2012 12:18

Exactly. Moreover, Phil rode this year's Ardennes even better than many people expected based on his previous perfomances. Everything is relative.
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26 Nov 2012 12:27

airstream wrote:if Contador doesn't drop everyone, he is not at 100%, right?


Well to some extend, yes. But Andy at 100% "should" be able to follow (but then again he will be smoked in the ITT). Also u never know if there a some young talent who suddenly breaks through and steps up. So would rather rephrase the sentece to "if Contador doesn't drop almost everyone, he is not at 100%"
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26 Nov 2012 15:35

airstream wrote:Exactly. Moreover, Phil rode this year's Ardennes even better than many people expected based on his previous perfomances. Everything is relative.


lol, even by your standards, this is ridiuculous.
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26 Nov 2012 15:45

Cimber wrote:Well to some extend, yes. But Andy at 100% "should" be able to follow (but then again he will be smoked in the ITT). Also u never know if there a some young talent who suddenly breaks through and steps up. So would rather rephrase the sentece to "if Contador doesn't drop almost everyone, he is not at 100%"


I disagree, Alberto at 100% > Andy at 100%
"The second place is not good."
The great Alberto Contador :p
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