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Who will win 2013 GIRO?

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Who will win 2013 GIRO?

Nibali
90
32%
Rodriguez
29
10%
Hesjedal
16
6%
Basso
9
3%
Wiggins
106
38%
Scarponi
2
1%
Others
29
10%
 
Total votes : 281

27 Nov 2012 15:29

theyoungest wrote:It just seems impossible to me that Hesjedal would have been able to follow the amazing Spanish threesome in the Vuelta. Just a feeling.


If he were fresh? He wouldn't, but he would have defended very decently. People just often says Purito allegedly vastly improved compared to the Giro. Personally I don't think so.

Eshnar wrote:I can't find the data now, but when I looked at it the VAMs in the Giro were far from being poor.

I heard the Vuelta VAMs were weak. Yes, Contador often calmed down after unsuccessful attacks. But the Giro is not different in this regard. By and large the race was uncovered once on Pampeago.
User avatar airstream
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27 Nov 2012 15:33

cineteq wrote:Bonus points (20 for 1st place) for all stages in the Giro ring a bell? His window of opportunity is reducing, but he should be able to keep a similar shape for next year.


Finally he will ride the TDF next year. That's why i think he wont have more opportunities in Italia.
User avatar Jason_Mercier
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27 Nov 2012 19:10

airstream wrote:Such riders don't exist. He would have blown away from the peloton on flat. Brajkovic is 58 as minimum.



Previous 5 years clearly show that TT's decide more than mountains if we look into contenders of comparable level. There is a 50 km TT. Basso will lose to Wiggins 3 minutes in case of the best scenario. The main problem is he can not get away on pedalabele climbs and the stages are not difficult enough that the opponents would be dropped due to tiredness. Next year he won't have a team. I don't see Basso get on the podium if 2-3 main contenders won't fail.


those riders do exist. for instance david livramento is 182 x55 :rolleyes:
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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27 Nov 2012 19:21

Ryo Hazuki wrote:those riders do exist. for instance david livramento is 182 x55 :rolleyes:


Holy ****:eek:. I have 176x62 and I think I have good weight for climber but 182x55 is insane:o
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Vamos Colombia!
Ryo Hazuki in August 2013 wrote:what? quintana is already better climber than froome. see final stages of the tour and he's only 23. quintana is the best climber I've sene since pantani. he will become a legend
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27 Nov 2012 19:51

Image
User avatar Ryo Hazuki
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27 Nov 2012 22:51

lol david livramento makes rasmussen look fat :p he did a good job at the volta this year i must say.
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28 Nov 2012 00:15

Eshnar wrote:Meh. Purito made it, so why not Hesjedal.


+1, I think Hesjedal could have made it if he had come to the Vuelta with his Giro form. Rodriguez's performance in the Vuelta wasn't that much better than his Giro performance, so I think Hesjedal would have been up there with 3 Spaniards.
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28 Nov 2012 00:31

didn't jens link us a few weeks ago to a blog with ascent times and watts calculations that said purito was riding like 0.3 w/Kg higher then he was at the giro?
User avatar Parrulo
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28 Nov 2012 01:42

Parrulo wrote:didn't jens link us a few weeks ago to a blog with ascent times and watts calculations that said purito was riding like 0.3 w/Kg higher then he was at the giro?


yeah but the Vuelta stages were mostly 1 climb where as the Giro stages were longer and harder so its hard to compare.

My own suspicion though is that Purito, who struggled with the 2011 Giro, would have been slightly more on it at his home race.

As a defensive rider, following Contador attacking 8k out on stages was more likely to bring the absolute best out of Purito. As a Punchy rider the more explosive stages of the Vuelta suited him more as did the home support and the heat.

Also worth remembering that in his Giro prep Purito was already flying at Vuelta a Pais Vasco and then Fleche Wallone, in April.

In his Vuelta prep though he didnt even contest his beloved Vuelta a Burgos in order to make sure that peak form hit at exactly the right place.

So would Hejsedal have been able to follow the 3 spaniards at the Vuelta. I dont know. My suspicion is that he would have done better than recovering Gesink and tired Froome but still been a little bit behind the 3 caballeros.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


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User avatar The Hitch
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28 Nov 2012 01:48

From interviews I've read over the last month or so Porte, Rogers and Kennaugh have all said they're very likely to be riding the Giro with Wiggins.

Obviously there's some doubt whether Rogers will even be on the team next year but that's for another forum...

I would say Cataldo is also very likely. Wiggins likes Knees as his wind shield on the flat so he'll probably be there. I think Eisel will be there as road captain and presumably one of the Colombians for the Giro clmbs.

So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel
JRanton
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28 Nov 2012 01:54

JRanton wrote:From interviews I've read over the last month or so Porte, Rogers and Kennaugh have all said they're very likely to be riding the Giro with Wiggins.

Obviously there's some doubt whether Rogers will even be on the team next year but that's for another forum...

I would say Cataldo is also very likely. Wiggins likes Knees as his wind shield on the flat so he'll probably be there. I think Eisel will be there as road captain and presumably one of the Colombians for the Giro clmbs.

So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel


Kiriyenka is one of the riders who really loves the giro so maybe he will be in that team.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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Location: London.

28 Nov 2012 02:02

The Hitch wrote:Kiriyenka is one of the riders who really loves the giro so maybe he will be in that team.


Possibly yeah. I was guessing with the two Belarusians and the two Colombians but the others seem more certain.
JRanton
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28 Nov 2012 02:43

The Hitch wrote:yeah but the Vuelta stages were mostly 1 climb where as the Giro stages were longer and harder so its hard to compare.

My own suspicion though is that Purito, who struggled with the 2011 Giro, would have been slightly more on it at his home race.

As a defensive rider, following Contador attacking 8k out on stages was more likely to bring the absolute best out of Purito. As a Punchy rider the more explosive stages of the Vuelta suited him more as did the home support and the heat.

Also worth remembering that in his Giro prep Purito was already flying at Vuelta a Pais Vasco and then Fleche Wallone, in April.

In his Vuelta prep though he didnt even contest his beloved Vuelta a Burgos in order to make sure that peak form hit at exactly the right place.

So would Hejsedal have been able to follow the 3 spaniards at the Vuelta. I dont know. My suspicion is that he would have done better than recovering Gesink and tired Froome but still been a little bit behind the 3 caballeros.


that is indeed a very good point, maybe purito was missing that little bit he had at the vuelta.
User avatar Parrulo
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28 Nov 2012 02:53

JRanton wrote:So something like:

Wiggins
Porte
Uran/Henao
Rogers
Cataldo
Kennaugh
Knees
Swift
Eisel

Leaving the Tour line-up as something like:

Froome
Wiggins
Uran/Henao
Kiryienka
Siutsov
EBH
Thomas
Stannard
Eisel


That is about how I have it. I wonder about the merit of sending Swift to the Giro though when there are only a couple of sprint stages. Could do some grunt work but in that case it may be better to blood Puccio. Eisel may sit out if he focuses a bit more on the classics, leaving room for Kiryienka or DLG.
Ferminal
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28 Nov 2012 07:04

I don't know the Giro data, but Vuelta was weak. Iirc, they never exceeded even 1650 m/h. Contador at Verbier - 1860, Schleck and Contador ~ 1700, so... Yes, ascents often turned out to be positional cos' Contador attacked, Rodriguez followed and the speed instantly died out. However as for the Giro we have zero evidence to think the riders went full blast too.

Recently Kiri said in the interview that he is presumably planned for the Tour. Sincerely hope to see our guys in the 100th TdF! :) On a good day, Vasya is better mountain domestique than anyone including Wiggins.


Ah, I'm sorry. I misunderstood. They never rode slower than 6 Wt / kg, hence they always beat 1650 m/h. What to say? Nothing changes for the better.
User avatar airstream
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28 Nov 2012 08:51

Eshnar wrote:Meh. Purito made it, so why not Hesjedal.

Maybe Purito had the Vuelta as his main target, and arrived at the Giro a bit underdone? To me it seems that he was in better shape at the Vuelta than at the Giro. Again, just a feeling, I don't have the numbers to prove it.

Purito suddenly was a rival to Contador, which he had never been, and which Hesjedal sure as hell hasn't been.
theyoungest
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28 Nov 2012 09:34

theyoungest wrote:Maybe Purito had the Vuelta as his main target, and arrived at the Giro a bit underdone? To me it seems that he was in better shape at the Vuelta than at the Giro. Again, just a feeling, I don't have the numbers to prove it.

Purito suddenly was a rival to Contador, which he had never been, and which Hesjedal sure as hell hasn't been.

And Valverde hasn't been either. So, either both Piti and Purito got a sudden level up
or simply AC was far from being 100% (which is understandable)
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...
User avatar Eshnar
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Location: Frankfurt am Main

28 Nov 2012 12:59

Eshnar wrote:And Valverde hasn't been either. So, either both Piti and Purito got a sudden level up
or simply AC was far from being 100% (which is understandable)


Agreed, but purito was imo slightly better than valverde. JR and contador dropped him on ancares and then on Lagos de covadonga they dropped him a number of times and the only reason valverde was ever able to get back on was because contador kept stopping evertime purito got back. Purito also took 20 s or so from piti on bola.

It seems silly saying this for a race where valverde ended up beating rodriguez despite losing 50s unfairly but purito did seem to.me a little bit stronger in the mountains than valverde.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
User avatar The Hitch
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Location: London.

28 Nov 2012 13:34

Eshnar wrote:And Valverde hasn't been either. So, either both Piti and Purito got a sudden level up
or simply AC was far from being 100% (which is understandable)

AC probably wasn't 100%, but Purito also clearly found a way to respond to his attacks, which he didn't have before. After all, Contador had only been out of business for a few months.
theyoungest
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28 Nov 2012 13:48

theyoungest wrote:AC probably wasn't 100%, but Purito also clearly found a way to respond to his attacks, which he didn't have before. After all, Contador had only been out of business for a few months.

Purito was already being called "in the form of his life" during the Giro. The pre-2012 Rodriguez was never going to do such a race at that level. Surely he had something more during the Vuelta, but only due to the fact that the race was taylor made for him. The 2012 AC would have dropped Purito in a Giro stage, imho. Just like Hesjedal did, to a minor extent. And sure as hell Hesjedal was never gonna beat Purito in that Vuelta. My point is just that we have no evidence that Purito got stronger in between the Giro and Vuelta. We do have hints he got stronger between 2011 and 2012, that's for sure, but nothing else.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...
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