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2013 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

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27 Jan 2013 15:44

the asian wrote:Most of the top riders aren't riding it this year either. So i guess they too agree with me.


Which should make the race more interesting ? ...

Most of the time no top favourite makes it much better to watch than a race laid with starts looking over their shoulders.
Gloin22
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27 Jan 2013 15:50

Gloin22 wrote:Which should make the race more interesting ? ...

Most of the time no top favourite makes it much better to watch than a race laid with starts looking over their shoulders.


Might make the result tighter, but not sure we'll get interesting racing.
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27 Jan 2013 16:31

Bavarianrider wrote:TT is a bit too short to balance Alto de Mahlaho MTF. 5km more would ahve bee appropriate.
Anyway, should offer Tony a decent shot at top 3 GC finish.


Bavarianrider strikes again. It may be balanced if you cut the length down to 1/3 of it's original
Red Rick
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27 Jan 2013 16:45

Pentacycle wrote:Whereas TA was decided by a MTF long before the final TT,

that's some nice trolling
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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27 Jan 2013 16:49

The funny thing is that bv calls that climb hard. Remember his great argument was that gradient don't matter. 2% is as hard as 25%

So.is a 3k climb really hard? its barely any more difficult than box hill.
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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27 Jan 2013 18:41

Does anyone know what Rabo/Blanco's Flemish classic specialists (Boom, Vanmarcke, Wynants) racing schedule will be? Can't seem to find any info...
Der Effe
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27 Jan 2013 19:08

The Hitch wrote:The funny thing is that bv calls that climb hard. Remember his great argument was that gradient don't matter. 2% is as hard as 25%

So.is a 3k climb really hard? its barely any more difficult than box hill.


No that is not what i said:rolleyes:
Of course it depends of the lenght of the effort.
3km @ 5% are easier cause you are riding shorter then on 9% gradient of 3km.
Going all out for 10 minutes on a 5% climb is just as hard as 10minutes all out ona a 9% gradient, no difference there.

However, the steeper climbs are, the more difficult it gets for riders to reach their normal watt/kilo ratio. The heavier a rider is, the more heavier it gets to reach the flat line watt/Kilo ratio. Hence lighter riders have an increasing advantage the longer and steeper a climb is.
This does not mean that the climb gets harder, though. You still push at 100% but your power output production is going down. Hence you go slower, but it doesn'T feel harder then psuhing 100% in the flat.
You can't push more then 100%. Neither at 0% or ad 100% gradient.
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27 Jan 2013 19:45

So, Sestriere is harder than Zoncolan by your logic?
burning
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27 Jan 2013 19:48

Bavarianrider wrote:No that is not what i said:rolleyes:
Of course it depends of the lenght of the effort.
3km @ 5% are easier cause you are riding shorter then on 9% gradient of 3km.
Going all out for 10 minutes on a 5% climb is just as hard as 10minutes all out ona a 9% gradient, no difference there.

However, the steeper climbs are, the more difficult it gets for riders to reach their normal watt/kilo ratio. The heavier a rider is, the more heavier it gets to reach the flat line watt/Kilo ratio. Hence lighter riders have an increasing advantage the longer and steeper a climb is.
This does not mean that the climb gets harder, though. You still push at 100% but your power output production is going down. Hence you go slower, but it doesn'T feel harder then psuhing 100% in the flat.
You can't push more then 100%. Neither at 0% or ad 100% gradient.

maybe you should mention that this reasoning is valid only in a ITT. when you're alone.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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27 Jan 2013 20:10

burning wrote:So, Sestriere is harder than Zoncolan by your logic?


I doubt Sestriere takes longer as Zoncolan.

However, in General you a right.
50 minutes on 6% gradient are harder then 40 minutes on a 12% gradient.
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27 Jan 2013 20:11

Eshnar wrote:maybe you should mention that this reasoning is valid only in a ITT. when you're alone.


Not only in TTes, though. When you are alone, no drafting and so on, it's true for mass start races, too.
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27 Jan 2013 20:17

Bavarianrider wrote:Not only in TTes, though. When you are alone, no drafting and so on, it's true for mass start races, too.

yes. Even though in mass start races is very unlikely to climb a whole mountain all alone today :o
In any case, it's a strict condition and someone had to mention it
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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27 Jan 2013 20:56

Bavarianrider wrote:I doubt Sestriere takes longer as Zoncolan.

However, in General you a right.
50 minutes on 6% gradient are harder then 40 minutes on a 12% gradient.


38 km at %4 must be longer than around 50 minutes, but I'd take Sestriere at any day over Zoncolan
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27 Jan 2013 21:41

burning wrote:38 km at %4 must be longer than around 50 minutes, but I'd take Sestriere at any day over Zoncolan


Didn't realise it was 34km.

If so, it indeed is a harder climed compared to Zoncolan.
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28 Jan 2013 07:51

It's not the time it takes that defines the difficulty, it's the effort it takes to at least make it to the top. Any dude with 2 legs can get his @ss up to sestriere but if you're sending random people up to Zoncolan, 99% will not make it through the first steep km.
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28 Jan 2013 08:22

Nah, Tony's brother is correct in that a gradual climb takes longer than a steeper climb of equal vertical gain (or uses more energy). But he fails to detail the fact that it is far easier to stick with a group on easier gradients due to the drafting bonuses. This is the whole reason why 5% gradients at the end of an easy stage are pointless. It's far more difficult for a climbing order to be established. The finishing order on a climb like Zoncolan is pretty much determined by W/kg. In this sense the Giro MTT is very good and a tougher exercise than had they just done 10km @ 10%.

Anyway, what time is the T-A announcement?
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28 Jan 2013 09:21

Ferminal wrote:Anyway, what time is the T-A announcement?

no idea... :confused:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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28 Jan 2013 14:51

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/TirrenoAdriatico/2011/it/dettaglio_percorso.shtml

Can't say I'm impressed, the change to the Chieti run in means 15km along the highway before the finish. Looks like a tough one for the attackers. The bonus ASO loop at the end of Stage 6 makes me sad too.
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28 Jan 2013 15:06



From Ferminal's link
Image

Wed 06/03/2013 16.9 km St. Vincent - Donoratico (Team time trial)
Thurs 07/03/2013 230 km San Vincenzo - Indicator (Arezzo)
Fri 08/03/2013 198 km Indicator (Arezzo) - Narni Scalo
Sat 03/09/2013 165 km Narni - Prati di Tivo
Sun 3/10/2013 224 km Ortona - Chieti
Mon 3/11/2013 208 km Porto Sant 'Elpidio - Porto Sant' Elpidio
Tues 03/12/2013 9.3 km San Benedetto del Tronto (Individual Time Trial)
Be the Goat

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28 Jan 2013 15:15

well it could be worse to be honest

we get prati di tivo instead of rocca di cambio so that's good.

and chieti comes after prato di tivo which could be good as some may need to try and gain time back and attack from further away, also isn't the profile from chieti the same as what was supposed to be done last year?
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