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Who is next to dominate GT's?

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13 Dec 2012 13:51

RHRH19861986 wrote:I think Rasmussen also would have improved massively. He won a MTF in 2003´s Vuelta, and then have a look at his Tours... Good in 2005, better in 2006, winner in 2007 (with massively improved ITT performances). If he would have continued like that, a Sastre wouldn´t have had any chance against him in 2008.

2009 and 2010, it would´ve been Contador vs Rasmussen, not Contador against Schleck.

2011 was a lame Tour, Evans was able to win. Evans was worlds behind Rasmussen in 2007, 2011 could have been the last year of Rasmussens Tour leadership, 2012 he would certainly have been on the way down, like Menchov was in 2012.

Rasmussen only started to find his best package in 2007, he would´ve had yellow years ahead of him.

Send an email to the Rabo board of directors, they'll cry even more ;)
theyoungest
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13 Dec 2012 13:53

you do realize realize rasmussen is 6 months away from turning 39 don't you? and that he already was 33 in july 2007. he had also been a high level pro for over 5 years. . . how the hell would he all of the sudden improve so much? what you are saying would make sense if he was 27/28/29 in 2007 but since he was 33 at the time, what you are saying makes absolutely no sense.
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13 Dec 2012 13:57

Parrulo wrote:you do realize realize rasmussen is 6 months away from turning 39 don't you? and that he already was 33 in july 2007. he had also been a high level pro for over 5 years. . . how the hell would he all of the sudden improve so much? what you are saying would make sense if he was 27/28/29 in 2007 but since he was 33 at the time, what you are saying makes absolutely no sense.


Oh, yes, shame on me, I really didn´t notice he was that old in 2007... :o So you and you all are probably right...

So I think 2007 and 2008 would´ve been his Tours.
RHRH19861986
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13 Dec 2012 14:03

08 would certainly be within his grasp but he would have to really fight for it as not only was sastre super strong but the route had 2 big itt's and CSC and monster of a team

but this is about the future anyway :o
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13 Dec 2012 14:05

Parrulo wrote:08 would certainly be within his grasp but he would have to really fight for it as not only was sastre super strong but the route had 2 big itt's and CSC and monster of a team

In this purely theoretical case, Rasmussen would have had a strong team as well of course... Menchov got 3d in that Tour. And Thomas Dekker would have gotten one year stronger.
theyoungest
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13 Dec 2012 14:07

Parrulo wrote:08 would certainly be within his grasp but he would have to really fight for it as not only was sastre super strong but the route had 2 big itt's and CSC and monster of a team


Would´ve have been a great TdF, that´s for sure... Just imagine they wouldn´t have dropped out the Saunioer guys... So Rasmussen/Menchov vs Sastre/Schlecks vs Ricco... But back to topic, I stop dreaming and imagining now.
RHRH19861986
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13 Dec 2012 16:57

RHRH19861986 wrote:Tour 2007. If he wouldn´t have been taken out, he´d have dominated from there on, for maybe three or four years, close to Contador.


Rassmussen was given the usual amount of latitude in his attacks in 2007 by his rivals, anticipating his usual fail in the ITT. His remarkable improvement over 2006 in the ITT was a stunning surprise to his opponents. Granted he was still unmatched (except by Contador) in the mountains but he would not have been able to gain the same advantage in later years as he did in 2007.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
User avatar Angliru
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13 Dec 2012 18:15

Great point @Angrilu, he gained a lot of time at Tignes.
The 08 TDF would have been Contadors if allowed to ride.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

Quote:VAE
"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
greenedge
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13 Dec 2012 19:01

RHRH19861986 wrote:I think it´s not possible to predict what Jungels, Dombrowski and others will do, th start from zero by entering the pro peloton.

Looking at the guys who´ve already ridden one or two pro seasons, I don´t really see anyone who´ll dominate everything, but that doesn´t mean anything.

Ullrich was second in his first ever Tour in 1996, aged 22, whereas Contador and Rasmussen needed some time to become dominators.

Andy Schleck was maybe similar to Ullrich, being top nearly already from the beginning.

The problem with predictions is that GT top riders peak from 27/28 to 32, so we won´t really know before.

In the next years, it will remain between Contador, A.Schleck, Froome, Wiggins, VDB, Van Garderen, Kreuziger, maybe Fuglsang, and few others.


VDB, Kreuziger and Fuglsang over Nibali, Gesink and to a lesser extent Pinot?
With Kreuziger, I believe his time for contending in grand tours is past and maybe he should focus on week long stage races and the hilly classics. VDB seems stuck in his development and just is missing that certain something that gets him over the hump to being an actual winner instead of being a perpetual stage race contender. Fuglsang I can't see battling with the likes of the elite in any grand tour.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
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13 Dec 2012 19:59

Angliru wrote:VDB, Kreuziger and Fuglsang over Nibali, Gesink and to a lesser extent Pinot?
With Kreuziger, I believe his time for contending in grand tours is past and maybe he should focus on week long stage races and the hilly classics. VDB seems stuck in his development and just is missing that certain something that gets him over the hump to being an actual winner instead of being a perpetual stage race contender. Fuglsang I can't see battling with the likes of the elite in any grand tour.


S***, I forgot Nibali and Gesink...
There are so many good GT riders on quite a similar level, that´s amazing.

Few years ago, it was

Armstrong
Ullrich
Rest,

these times are gone.
RHRH19861986
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13 Dec 2012 20:02

RHRH19861986 wrote:S***, I forgot Nibali and Gesink...
There are so many good GT riders on quite a similar level, that´s amazing.

Few years ago, it was

Armstrong
Ullrich
Rest,

these times are gone.

Currently it's

Contador
...
rest.

Maybe Froome has the potential to bridge the divide, as does Schleck 2.0.
theyoungest
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13 Dec 2012 20:40

theyoungest wrote:In this purely theoretical case, Rasmussen would have had a strong team as well of course... Menchov got 3d in that Tour. And Thomas Dekker would have gotten one year stronger.


I think the coupling of Menchov and Rassmussen would've ended in a messy divorce. All I remember is Rassmussen saying something to the media during one of the Tours (2006?) along the lines of "Menchov couldn't get his a$$ over the Galibier".:eek: I think Rassmussen's continued presence would've hastened Menchov's departure form Rabo.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
User avatar Angliru
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13 Dec 2012 20:42

Changing the topic. What about Sergei Chernetskiy? Good climb, good iTT. Strong in all terrains. The new Menchov?
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13 Dec 2012 20:44

Angliru wrote:I think the coupling of Menchov and Rassmussen would've ended in a messy divorce. All I remember is Rassmussen saying something to the media during one of the Tours (2006?) along the lines of "Menchov couldn't get his a$$ over the Galibier".:eek: I think Rassmussen's continued presence would've hastened Menchov's departure form Rabo.


But their relationship improved a lot in 2007´s Tour... Menchov was very loyal to MR, and even left the race frustrated, shortly after Rasmussen got suspended.
RHRH19861986
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13 Dec 2012 20:44

RHRH19861986 wrote:
Few years ago, it was

Armstrong
Ullrich
Rest,

these times are gone.


How so? Andy Schleck circa 2009-2010 was comparable to Ullrich. Far better than everyone else; the only one who could really challenge Armstrong but who was ultimately always going to be beaten by him. That sounds similar to Contador vs Andy Schleck to me.

Granted we have no idea if 09-10 Schleck will ever come back but if he does he is head and shoulders above the rest.
uphillstruggle
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13 Dec 2012 21:07

Jason_Mercier wrote:Changing the topic. What about Sergei Chernetskiy? Good climb, good iTT. Strong in all terrains. The new Menchov?


Gonna fail like Novikov did. Happens to almost every young talented Russian.
FF'Wilco
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14 Dec 2012 00:34

RHRH19861986 wrote:I think Rasmussen also would have improved massively. He won a MTF in 2003´s Vuelta, and then have a look at his Tours... Good in 2005, better in 2006, winner in 2007 (with massively improved ITT performances). If he would have continued like that, a Sastre wouldn´t have had any chance against him in 2008.

2009 and 2010, it would´ve been Contador vs Rasmussen, not Contador against Schleck.

2011 was a lame Tour, Evans was able to win. Evans was worlds behind Rasmussen in 2007, 2011 could have been the last year of Rasmussens Tour leadership, 2012 he would certainly have been on the way down, like Menchov was in 2012.

Rasmussen only started to find his best package in 2007, he would´ve had yellow years ahead of him.


Climbing Evans was but he could have paced himself, then relied on his ITT. Sastre rode great in 08- thoroughly deserving (though he did have a great team). I doubt Rasmussen would have won the 2011 TDF, he would have been too old and riders would have shut down his attacks like they shut down all others.
I'd agree with you but then we'd both be wrong

The Grand Boucle wasn't just Europe's for the taking.

Quote:VAE
"Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?"
D&C "He will soon..."
greenedge
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14 Dec 2012 13:01

RHRH19861986 wrote:But their relationship improved a lot in 2007´s Tour... Menchov was very loyal to MR, and even left the race frustrated, shortly after Rasmussen got suspended.


Menchov always seemed to be low-maintenance star, willing to do whatever was necessary or desired by management with little if any drama. I think eventually he would've bailed if his opportunities were being compromised by Rassmussen. He just doesn't seem the type to rock the boat.
"It's a little bit scarey when Contador attacks." Tommie Voeckler
User avatar Angliru
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14 Dec 2012 14:15

Hilarious thing a weak 2006 TdF Menchov made Chicken cook up that genial combination. To improve TT in off-season, to go into breakaway covering up himself with fight for polka dot in order to start firing in GC. It was a brilliant strategic move. Hell, do you realize that meant to be the strongest climber of that Tour in that era? It is a synonym of the strongest climber we ever saw.
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14 Dec 2012 14:22

uphillstruggle wrote:How so? Andy Schleck circa 2009-2010 was comparable to Ullrich. Far better than everyone else; the only one who could really challenge Armstrong but who was ultimately always going to be beaten by him. That sounds similar to Contador vs Andy Schleck to me.

Granted we have no idea if 09-10 Schleck will ever come back but if he does he is head and shoulders above the rest.


why wouldnt he come back?
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013. 2nd all time cq rankings.
The Father of Clean Cycling, Christophe Bassons wrote:When I look at cycling today, I get the impression that history is repeating itself: riders who are supposed to be rouleurs are climbing passes at the front of the race, and those who are supposed to be climbers are riding time trials at more than 50 kilometres per hour.

The story is beginning again, just as it did 14 years ago


journalist with integrity.
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