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Who will win the 2013 GIRO? (Second round)

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Who will win the 2013 GIRO?

Wiggins
52
30%
Nibali
51
30%
Rodriguez
11
6%
Hesjedal
10
6%
Gesink
21
12%
Sanchez
5
3%
Basso
6
4%
Scarponi
2
1%
A colombian
4
2%
Other/Vino
9
5%
 
Total votes : 171

07 Jan 2013 15:20

If we are talking about Nibali v.S Gesink as main contenders (Although there still is Wiggins of course) we seriously shouldn't underestimate Franco Pellizotti! He was the main favorite back in 2010 and Savio has mostly put out some strong performances in Italy.
User avatar staubsauger
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07 Jan 2013 15:20

Eshnar wrote:Purito.... You're still in time to change your mind :o
[SIZE="1"]please[/SIZE]


J-Rod by not going to the Giro is making a major mistake. He would be a joint favorite to win this year. In contrast he has almost zero chance of winning the tour. Who gives a s.h.i.t about podium placements if one can take the win in a major race such as the Giro.
Dazed and Confused
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07 Jan 2013 15:22

Dazed and Confused wrote:J-Rod by not going to the Giro is making a major mistake. He would be a joint favorite to win this year. In contrast he has almost zero chance of winning the tour. Who gives a s.h.i.t about podium placements if one can take the win in a major race such as the Giro.

yeah... it's really a poor decision.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 15:33

Dazed and Confused wrote:J-Rod by not going to the Giro is making a major mistake. He would be a joint favorite to win this year. In contrast he has almost zero chance of winning the tour. Who gives a s.h.i.t about podium placements if one can take the win in a major race such as the Giro.

I just can't imagine Rodriguez fighting for the victory in Giro with a tt of 55,5k's. Even if it was a hilly one, it's too much for him.
The Tour is better race for him this year, but far from ideal.
He should target Vuelta again. That's the race by his measure.
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07 Jan 2013 15:36

serfla wrote:I just can't imagine Rodriguez fighting for the victory in Giro with a tt of 55,5k's. Even if it was a hilly one, it's too much for him.
The Tour is better race for him this year, but far from ideal.
He should target Vuelta again. That's the race by his measure.

and by doing the Tour he won't win the Vuelta, that's for sure.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 15:44

Dazed and Confused wrote:J-Rod by not going to the Giro is making a major mistake. He would be a joint favorite to win this year. In contrast he has almost zero chance of winning the tour. Who gives a s.h.i.t about podium placements if one can take the win in a major race such as the Giro.

You could argue that the course of this year's Tour is more suited to him than this year's Giro. Of course bonus seconds change it a bit.
theyoungest
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07 Jan 2013 15:47

In theorie he should be able to win about 6 stages + general classification if he heads to the Vuelta (hyperbole). He just decided to go to the Tour and he should have a good chance for a top 3 spot if he's as close to Contador as in last years Vuelta.

But I don't see a fail in not riding the Giro this year. There will be a long time trail and there will be strong competition with Wiggins, Nibali, Pellizotti, Sanchez and Gesink. There's no need for Purito to attempt in Italy from my point of view.
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07 Jan 2013 15:53

staubsauger wrote:In theorie he should be able to win about 6 stages + general classification if he heads to the Vuelta (hyperbole).

If he takes the Tour as a training ride yes. If he goes for the podium there, he'll fail at the Vuelta, unless he became a robot this winter.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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07 Jan 2013 15:56

serfla wrote:I just can't imagine Rodriguez fighting for the victory in Giro with a tt of 55,5k's. Even if it was a hilly one, it's too much for him.
The Tour is better race for him this year, but far from ideal.
He should target Vuelta again. That's the race by his measure.


meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.
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07 Jan 2013 16:01

Eshnar wrote:and by doing the Tour he won't win the Vuelta, that's for sure.

Probably.
But I think he's not a rider who can reach top form by preparing for a single race whole season. Especially if it's at the end of summer. He's leaving impression that he's at his best when he has lots of racing in his legs.
His ambition to fight for the Yellow jersey might dearly cost him, although this year's edition looks like the best possible for him, I must admit.
It could cost him in some victories and professional reputation.
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07 Jan 2013 16:01

Eshnar wrote:If he takes the Tour as a training ride yes. If he goes for the podium there, he'll fail at the Vuelta, unless he became a robot this winter.


That's why I said in theory = if he would focus on the Vuelta (In fact he isn't).

But I don't think it's totally impossible to do a Tour + Vuelta combo this year. I wouldn't rate a high-quality rider like Contador/Rodriguez with the Tour in his legs, lower than a Cobo or Anton peaking for the Vuelta! If another guy gets his breakthrough at the Vuelta it's a different story of course.

Talking about the Giro again. What do you think could we expect of the Ag2R duo? Could Betancur or Pozzovivo surprisingly be able to have a shot at the podium? I don't know much about the time trail abilities of Betancur. Is he capable to climb well 3 weeks also or do you think at the current point of his career he is more a classics rider.
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07 Jan 2013 16:08

serfla wrote:Probably.
But I think he's not a rider who can reach top form by preparing for a single race whole season.

I was more implying that AC and Froome already showed that you can't succeed in two consecutive GTs
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 16:08

staubsauger wrote:That's why I said in theory = if he would focus on the Vuelta (In fact he isn't).

fair enough :p
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 16:13

theyoungest wrote:You could argue that the course of this year's Tour is more suited to him than this year's Giro. Of course bonus seconds change it a bit.


I accept some would see it that way, but I disagree. J-Rod would have no way of getting time back using his main weapon: uphill/MTFs sprints to the line. Winning the tour would require J-Rod to ride like he has never done before. Long distance attacks and probably often. In contrast he can chip away at the deficit in the Giro doing what he does best and plan one big attack to size the jersey at some point.

Winning the Tour would require Wiggins, Froome, Contador and probbaly Andy to fail along the way. Can't see it happening.
Dazed and Confused
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07 Jan 2013 16:13

Dazed and Confused wrote:meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.

Last year's Giro course was better for him, I think we can all agree. And he didn't win. Now with Wiggo there's a guy who will take at least 5 minutes on him in the time trials... how on earth is he going to win those back?
theyoungest
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07 Jan 2013 16:14

Dazed and Confused wrote:meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.

You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.
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07 Jan 2013 16:16

theyoungest wrote:Last year's Giro course was better for him, I think we can all agree. And he didn't win. Now with Wiggo there's a guy who will take at least 5 minutes on him in the time trials... how on earth is he going to win those back?

Last year's Giro was a better shot than this year's Tour too, and he didn't win, exactly.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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07 Jan 2013 16:18

serfla wrote:but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him.

I'd say that itt is everything but straight and flat. But in any case Wiggo would take 4 minutes to him.
Now, Do we think Purito will take less than 2 minutes by AC and Froome at the Tour? Where will he take them back?
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 16:21

staubsauger wrote:Talking about the Giro again. What do you think could we expect of the Ag2R duo? Could Betancur or Pozzovivo surprisingly be able to have a shot at the podium? I don't know much about the time trail abilities of Betancur. Is he capable to climb well 3 weeks also or do you think at the current point of his career he is more a classics rider.

The Betancur I saw at the 2011 Giro was still good enough after 3 weeks of racing. It depends a lot of his and Pozzovivo goals. If their aim is the GC then they have a good shot at the top 10. I don't know about Betancour, but Pozzovivo is not that weak in tting as he seems, and in the mountains he'll probably be allowed to take a lot of time back.
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.


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User avatar Eshnar
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07 Jan 2013 16:29

serfla wrote:You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.


No question the Vuelta is best suited for the Spaniard, but if he insists on starting in two GT's this year, I would recommend him going for the Giro in addition to the Vuelta. Chance of winning the Giro: 15% imo.

Note last year J-Rod lost 1min to De Gendt and Hesjedal in the final flat TT over 30km. Clearly he will lose much more to Wiggins, but so will most other contenders.
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